Nationals Snag Soriano, Will Remain At 2B
ESPN is reporting that Jim Bowden picked up Alfonso Soriano for the Nationals and sent Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge over to the Rangers.
The trade is a pretty fair one by my off-the-cuff analysis. I’ll probably have some player projections on RotoAuthority tomorrow, given that players are moving from an extreme pitchers’ park to a home run haven.
Once extra piece of information that we’ve managed to acquire contradicts a statement in the ESPN report. According to ESPN:
"With Jose Vidro already entrenched at second base, it’s believed that the Nationals would move Soriano to left field."
My source is saying that the Nationals’ front office is quietly concerned that Jose Vidro may be done for his career. Expect Soriano to see most of his time at second base in years to come.
Soriano, Benson, Casey Deals Close
Wow, I stepped out for a couple of hours and a billion trades/rumors occurred. Here’s three, with more in-depth analysis to come tomorrow.
Peter Gammons is saying the Dodgers are close to acquiring Alfonso Soriano for Jonathan Broxton. I suppose Soriano could take over at third base; he’s yet to play a Major League game in the outfield. Broxton would fit well in either the starting rotation or the ‘pen. The hefty right-hander split time between the roles at Double A Jacksonville in 2005. One of Broxton’s specialties (besides the palmball) is limiting the home run, a trait that will come in handy in a ballpark that inflates homers by 19%.
The Mets dumped Kris Benson and his salary on the Royals, acquiring southpaw reliever Jeremy Affeldt and perhaps Mike MacDougal. Affeldt has pretty lousy control and just an OK strikeout rate for a reliever; I’m not sure why everyone’s saying that he’ll shore up the Mets’ middle relief. MacDougal at leasts boasts a career 8.5 K/9. As for Benson, Kauffman Stadium isn’t much worse of a place to pitch than Shea. But with the Royals’ defense behind him, he’ll still see his ERA go up at least half a run.
The Reds unloaded Sean Casey‘s salary on the Pirates. Hopefully Casey will just be a stopgap until Brad Eldred learns to take a walk. Dave Williams gives up plenty of homers and allows plenty of baserunners, so his transition to Great American Ballpark will be anything but great. The move probably takes Austin Kearns off the market, as the outfielder logjam is solved now that Adam Dunn will play first.
Soriano for Milledge and Trachsel Proposed
We have some new details from my Mets source concerning a possible trade of Alfonso Soriano to the Mets. The latest report is that the Mets would send Lastings Milledge and Steve Trachsel to the Rangers for Soriano. The deal would be contingent on Soriano signing a long-term extension to play second base (not outfield).
The 35 year-old Trachsel would be a decent, affordable addition to the back-end of the Texas rotation. Jon Daniels may express concerns about Trachsel’s performance away from Shea Stadium in his last full season (2004). That year, Trachsel posted a 5.65 ERA with 16 HR allowed on the road. On the other hand, Trachsel was actually better on the road than at Shea in 2003. Trachsel’s 2006 option will pay him anywhere from $2.5MM-7MM based on innings pitched. He could be worth 4-5 wins in 2006.
Lastings Milledge was ranked the 4th best outfield prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus before the 2005 season. He did nothing to change that perception in ’05, batting .318 at Single and Double A stops. He projects to be worth 3 wins at the Major League level in 2006.
The OBP deficient Alfonso Soriano would be a curious addition to the Mets’ lineup. He was especially poor away from Ameriquest in 2005, hitting .224/.265/.374 (AVG/OBP/SLG). The power splits are tough to decipher, as Ameriquest is known to boost HRs for right-handed hitters by only about 6%. Soriano hit .315/.355/.656 in Texas in ’05.
Defensively, Soriano placed 17th among regular second basemen in range factor in 2005. According to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic, which combines offense and defense, Soriano was the 19th best second baseman in baseball in 2005. He projects to be worth 6 wins in 2006 and should get a raise to about $10MM through arbitration.
Sources:
Baseball Prospectus
Bill James Handbook 2006
Cot’s Baseball Contracts
Beckett Trade Nearly Done
It’s being reported in the Dallas Morning News that John Danks will be the prospect sent over by Texas and the deal is near completion.
While lefthanded, Danks doesn’t have the same upside as his Double A Frisco teammate Thomas Diamond. Both starters struggled in 2005. Danks gave up a ton of hits, while Diamond had major control problems.
Click here to see our 2006 projections for Josh Beckett as a Texas Ranger.
Beckett and Lowell for Blalock
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the huge blockbuster that might go down today. Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post told us late last night:
"In what could be the first step of a major housecleaning in Florida, the Marlins and Rangers are close to completing a trade that would send Beckett and Lowell to Texas for third baseman Hank Blalock and a top pitching prospect, two baseball sources said Friday night.
The Marlins are asking for either left-hander John Danks, Texas’ first-round pick in 2003, or right-hander Thomas Diamond, the team’s first-round pick in 2004."
The article goes on to say that the deal could fall apart if Texas refuses to include either pitching prospect. My guess is that the Marlins are demanding Diamond, who has a higher ceiling than Danks and could project as a #2 starter.
Both pitchers had lackluster years after being bumped up to Double A.
This may signal a widespread salary dump for the Marlins. We’ve all heard the rumors around Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, and Juan Pierre. One name I haven’t heard much is Luis Castillo. You have to figure Castillo is on the market as well with a weak 2B free agent class.
Rangers, Cubs, Reds Covet Jarrod Washburn
There seems to be a consensus among sportswriters that Jarrod Washburn will end up a Texas Ranger. I’ve spoken to Chicago Sun-Times writer Chris De Luca about Washburn, and he thinks new GM Jon Daniels is willing to overpay for a decent starter this winter.
Steve Phillips also picked the Rangers as Washburn’s destination. We all agree on his worth – a bit overrated after the 3.20 ERA, but a useful if somewhat overpaid 3rd starter. I ranked him 19th on the RotoAuthority Top 50 Free Agents List, just behind Jeff Weaver.
De Luca also thinks the Cubs are a possible suitor given Washburn’s desire to play near his hometown of LaCrosse, Wisconsin. The Brewers seemed like a logical choice, but De Luca informed me that Milwaukee has stated that they will not pursue Washburn. GM Doug Melvin has publicly stated that he won’t pay $8MM+ for a starter after the lackluster results of last year’s free agent signings.
It’s sounding more and more like the Cubs will come up with another starter to add to the stable. Then they’ll deal from that depth to acquire an outfielder. GM Jim Hendry may be more inclined to make a big splash with A.J. Burnett than give a lot of money to Washburn. Unlike last season when he had to get Sammy Sosa off the books, Hendry will act early and often. The Cardinals’ interest in Burnett may motivate Hendry to make a better offer to the starter. The Cards’ flirtation with Greg Maddux a few years back certainly influenced his ultimate return to Chicago.
A dark horse in the Washburn sweepstakes is the Reds. We know they’ll bring in some sort of starter – ESPN expects Cincinnati to make a run at Paul Byrd. Washburn is younger than Byrd, but Byrd allows fewer baserunners due to pinpoint control. One thing’s for sure: Cincinnati is a lot closer to LaCrosse than Arlington is.
If the Reds pass on both Washburn and Byrd, expect Kenny Rogers to be on their radar. He’s shown an above average ability to limit the long ball, a skill the Reds have come to appreciate after the Eric Milton debacle.
Kevin Mench To The Cubs
The Cubs are hot on the trail of Kevin Mench to fill one of their vacant outfield spots. Given that the Rangers have a need for a center fielder, it’s been speculated that Corey Patterson would be sent to Texas.
At age 27, Mench may have already reached his ceiling offensively. His AVG, OBP, and SLG all took a dip in 2005, his first full season. Mench didn’t rely on Ameriquest for his 25 home runs, as his splits are pretty even. He still has three years until free agency. Mench might be better served as a lefty-masher in a platoon – he slugged .600 vs. lefties in ’05.
Corey Patterson is long on potential, but has absolutely no ability to control the strike zone. The Rangers are hoping 2005 was rock bottom for Patterson.
Given the Cubs’ need for bullpen help, Jim Hendry may try to get Joaquin Benoit in the deal. Despite throwing a solid 87 innings in 2005, the 28 year-old righthander probably won’t be considered for the Rangers’ starting rotation in 2006. Benoit has an electric fastball and great K rate, but his problems with walks and home runs may run him out of town. He’s a great sleeper if he ever snags a starting gig.