AL Notes: Dombrowski, Yamauchi, Porter
The Tigers won the three-way Curtis Granderson deal with the Yankees and Diamondbacks, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. With Granderson fighting through an injury-riddled season and Ian Kennedy now in San Diego, Max Scherzer and Austin Jackson have been crucial contributors to what is extremely likely to be a division-winning season for Detroit. The Tigers have also acquired Miguel Cabrera, Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez via trade, Sherman points out.
"I learned not to care what others thought, only what we thought," says GM Dave Dombrowski. "The guys who are ranking, they have never seen our players." Sherman argues that one key to Dombrowski's success as a trader has been his willingness to deal his prospects. Also, Dombrowski isn't concerned with fleecing the other team, and is willing to give good value to get good value, Sherman says, citing this summer's swap of Avisail Garcia for Jose Iglesias (part of the Jake Peavy deal) as an example. "We didn’t want to trade Avisail Garcia," says Dombrowski. "We think he is going to be a very good player. The question for us is how good is the player we are getting back. We think Jose Iglesias is going to be a very good player, too." Here are more notes from the American League.
- In the wake of the death of owner Hiroshi Yamauchi, the Mariners' future is uncertain, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports writes. One possibility might be the return, in some capacity, of former GM Pat Gillick, who currently works for the Phillies. "People here think very fondly of him,” says Scott Weitz, a sports law attorney from Seattle. "I don’t think anybody would be disappointed if he took on a role with the team." It's also unclear whether Yamauchi's stake in the team will be sold — his 55% of the team is now controlled by Nintendo of America.
- Manager Bo Porter will be back for the Astros in 2014, although it's unclear what will happen to his field staff, MLB.com's Brian McTaggart tweets. The Astros have suffered through a 51-101 season, but it isn't as if a large percentage of the Astros' struggles can be pinned on their manager or his staff — 2013 was clearly a rebuilding year.
AL Notes: Twins, White Sox, Wedge
The Twins could have as much as $40MM to spend this offseason, Phil Mackey of 1500ESPN writes. The contracts of Justin Morneau ($14MM in 2013), Nick Blackburn ($5.5MM) and Mike Pelfrey ($4MM) won't be on the books anymore, and Mackey points out that the Twins have $90-100MM budgeted for payroll in 2014. That doesn't mean they'll actually spend it all, and they haven't been big free-agent spenders in the past. But the possibility should make the offseason an interesting one for Twins fans. Here are more notes from the American League.
- GM Rick Hahn of the White Sox doesn't feel his predecessor, Kenny Williams (who was promoted to executive vice president after the 2012 season), left the organization in a tough spot, reports MLB.com's Scott Merkin. "He left the position of general manager with a club that was in first place for [117] days," says Hahn. "He left us in a position to have a nine-digit payroll. You are not going to hear any gripes about the condition he left us in." Hahn points to the White Sox's crop of starting pitchers — which includes Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Hector Santiago — as evidence that the White Sox aren't in that unfavorable a position.
- Manager Eric Wedge says that "the kids," meaning young players, and their struggles with fundamentals have been a big part of the Mariners' struggles during his tenure. But Dave Cameron of USS Mariner points out that, while the Mariners have given playing time to lots of young hitters in recent years, those hitters — including players like Kyle Seager and Brad Miller — have mostly played at least passably, if not well. It's hitters over 25 who have really struggled. Cameron doesn't address how the Mariners' young pitchers have done, but it's clear that the Mariners' young hitters, at least, don't deserve a large portion of the blame for the team's performance.
Transaction Retrospection: Helton & Tulowitzki Deals
Todd Helton recently announced that he will retire after the 2013 season, providing an opportunity to reflect on his excellent career. Helton will spend his entire big-league tenure with one team, a rarity in this era, and that's due at least in part to the gigantic $142MM extension he signed in 2001.
Helton has had a textbook career path. He reached the Majors at age 23, improved through his first three seasons, and peaked from ages 26 through 30, then began a long, gradual decline phase, playing less and less effectively as his power, and then his ability to hit for average, deserted him. His career has also been typical in that he was dramatically underpaid for many of his best years and overpaid for many of his worst ones. Helton produced 8.3 wins above replacement as a 26-year-old in 2000, when he made $1.3MM. He produced between 5.5 and 7.1 WAR in all of the next four seasons, then never topped 4.4 WAR again.
Helton's massive contract did not kick in until 2003, which means that the Rockies paid $142MM and only got two seasons above 4.4 WAR. For the life of the contract, the Rockies received 30 WAR over nine years. That's not a terrible total, but it's not a good one either, given that a win on the free-agent market in, say, 2005 was worth much less than the $5-6MM it's worth now. Fangraphs' dollar values suggest that Helton was worth $105MM over the life of the contract, about $37MM less than he was paid. (Helton would have been arbitration-eligible in 2003, also, which means he also might have made a hair less in that season, one of his best in the entire contract, than the $10.6MM the extension paid him.)
The deal also made Helton one of MLB's highest-paid players even though the Rockies have never really been a high-payroll team, and there were several years in which Helton's contract made up about a quarter of the Rockies' Opening Day payroll. The Rockies made the playoffs twice and had three winning seasons over the life of the contract.
None of that is Helton's fault. He was an outstanding player in his prime and a pretty good one in his 30s, and the Rockies just happened to pay too heavily for him. It was a little surprising, then, that as they watched Helton's decline years unfold, they signed shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to another bank-busting contract.
Tulowitzki's contract was, in a way, even more remarkable than Helton's, in that the Rockies committed to it in late 2010 even though they already had Tulowitzki under control through 2014, after which he would be 30 years old. The Rockies effectively committed $119MM in new money to cover the 2015 through 2020 seasons, ending right around Tulowitzki's 36th birthday. From 2015 through 2019, Tulowitzki will make $20MM per year. For much of that time, they'll also have Carlos Gonzalez's backloaded $80MM contract to contend with. Gonzalez agreed to his deal, which essentially bought out four pre-free-agency seasons at $27MM and three free-agent years for $53MM, five weeks after Tulowitzki got his.
Tulowitzki's performance since he signed the contract has revealed both its potential upside and its potential downside. If he continues to play as he has in 2013, when he has produced 5.5 WAR, the contract will be a bargain. But as he ages, it will be difficult to sustain that level of performance, particularly if he suffers more injuries like the groin strain that caused him to miss much of the 2012 season.
So why did the Rockies sign Tulowitzki to such an enormous extension? "It was the right thing to do," Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd said at the time. "We believe in character, team and integrity."
The extension reportedly grew out of a broader conversation between Tulowitzki and O'Dowd. "The maturity of understanding the continuity and stability of things and what he's trying to become as a man led me to say to our owner, 'I think maybe we should explore this right now,'" O'Dowd said. The Rockies evidently believe that character, maturity and other intangibles are very valuable. Many teams talk about the importance of character, but there's ample reason to believe it when the Rockies are doing the talking.
Of course, keeping a star player in a market surely has financial value in merchandise sales and fan loyalty. That kind of value is difficult to measure for us outsiders, but the Rockies surely have some idea what kind of loyalty value the Helton extension has provided, and how keeping Tulowitzki around for several more years might benefit them beyond just his performance on the field. Regardless, it's difficult to imagine how those sorts of tough-to-measure benefits might compensate for the $37MM the Rockies appear to have overpaid Helton for his performance from 2003 through 2011, and the Rockies' performance as a team over that period hasn't helped answer those questions.
Tulowitzki is a different player, obviously, and his extension may turn out well. In fact, it's less risky than Helton's was. The $20MM annual salaries for 2015 through 2019 are high, but they aren't that high when one accounts for salary inflation. If a win is worth $5-6MM now, it could easily be worth $6-7MM in, say, 2018, which means that Tulowitzki would only need to provide about 3 WAR annually to make the deal a decent one for the Rockies. (It's hard to say for sure how new TV deals will continue to affect the salary landscape, but the Rockies' expires in 2014.) There's also the fact that Tulowitzki plays good defense, or at least he does now — his ability to field at a premium position should prevent the contract from being a complete debacle.
Of course, that assumes he stays healthy. Tulowitzki missed significant chunks of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 seasons with injuries, and players tend not to get healthier as they get older. Sports Illustrated's Joe Lemire points out the parallels between Tulowitzki and Nomar Garciaparra, who suffered from a number of injuries and never put up a star-caliber season after age 29. As Lemire also points out, though, Derek Jeter also had an enormous contract that carried him through his mid-30s, and he played very well until almost the very end of it.
Unless the Rockies substantially raise their payroll in the coming years, the Tulowitzki extension does represent a risk. Tulowitzki's injuries could continue to be a problem as he enters his 30s, a decade that is generally unkind to ballplayers anyway. Unlike Helton's contract, though, Tulowitzki's deal won't make him one of the sport's highest-paid players, and Tulowitzki won't have to perform at quite as high a level as Helton would have to justify the contract.
Quick Hits: Balentien, Marlins, Abreu, Yankees
Wladimir Balentien's journey to becoming Japan's single-season home run record holder took a number of twists and turns through the Mariners and Reds organizations, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick writes. Balentien, now with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, has 57 homers this year, topping Tuffy Rhodes, Alex Cabrera and Sadaharu Oh. Before that, though, he made his way through the Mariners' system, then went to the Reds in a minor trade after former Seattle GM Bill Bavasi took a job there. He played part of two years in the Reds organization and failed to find a lasting spot on their big-league roster. "For me, he was just one of those guys who ran out of time," says Bavasi. "It's not like there were two clubs that passed on him and he went over there and played great. There were 30 clubs that passed on him, and he went over there and found his niche. It's kind of remarkable what he's done." Here are more notes from around baseball.
- The Marlins have been scouting Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Frisaro also notes that the Marlins are scouting "a couple" of young Cuban pitchers at an MLB showcase in the Dominican Republic. Abreu is expected to command an enormous contract, so it would be surprising if the Marlins ended up being serious contenders for his services. Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel tweets that, while the Marlins are interested in Abreu, they probably won't be able to or willing to spend the money necessary to sign him.
- The Yankees' outlook for 2014 is bleak, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Robinson Cano, Hiroki Kuroda, Mariano Rivera, Curtis Granderson and Andy Pettitte will all be free agents. While some of them might be back, many Yankees who are already under control for 2014 are signed to ugly contracts. Sherman points out that the Yankees have also seen few positive developments from their young players this season, and that 2013 hasn't seen the debut of a single blue-chip prospect.
Week In Review: 9/8/13 – 9/14/13
Here's a look back at this week at MLBTR.
- Outfielder Vladimir Guerrero retired.
- Todd Helton of the Rockies will retire after the season.
- Pitcher Kip Wells retired.
- Chase Headley would like to stay with the Padres.
- The Phillies aren't planning to fire GM Ruben Amaro, Jr.
- The Dodgers are close to a deal with Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero.
- Tigers shortstop Jhonny Peralta left the ACES agency for SFX.
- The Yankees acquired shortstop Brendan Ryan from the Mariners for a player to be named later.
- The Astros acquired pitcher David Paulino from the Tigers to complete the Jose Veras deal.
- The Rockies acquired pitcher Yoely Bello from the Yankees to complete the Chris Nelson trade.
- The Brewers claimed pitcher Jose De La Torre from the Red Sox.
- The Yankees designated pitcher Jim Miller for assignment.
- The Astros outrighted pitcher Hector Ambriz.
- The Orioles outrighted third baseman Alex Liddi.
- The Yankees signed reliever Mike Zagurski.
- Former Pirates pitcher James McDonald turned down his outright assignment and became a free agent.
Central Notes: Duncan, Brewers, Garcia, McCutchen
Former Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan isn't sure whether he wants to return to baseball, but he's listening, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. "I’ve had several clubs call me and talk to me not so much about coaching, but joining them in some other capacity," says Duncan. "I really don’t think I would coach again — not right now, anyway. But if someone is interested, I’d listen to whatever they’re thinking about." Duncan left the game in January 2012 as his wife Jeanine was suffering from cancer. Duncan still has an excellent reputation as a pitching coach, but he does not want to return to coaching, calling it "a grind." Here are more notes from the Central divisions.
- It's unclear whether the Brewers will go with Scooter Gennett or Rickie Weeks at second base next season, Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel writes. Haurdicourt wonders if Weeks' $11MM 2014 salary might be a factor. (Weeks also has a vesting option for 2015.) Weeks has struggled all season, hitting .209/.306/.357 with poor defense, while Gennett has hit brilliantly in his rookie year.
- Leury Garcia, who the White Sox acquired from the Rangers last month in the Alex Rios deal, is impressing his new teammates, Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com writes. His defense at second base has played well so far, and although he hasn't yet provided much offense (he's hitting .214/.303/.214 in a small sample of 33 plate appearances so far), manager Robin Ventura says he thinks that will improve.
- Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen, who experienced four losing seasons in Pittsburgh before the Bucs finally broke through this year, advises Cubs players to worry about their own play and let management take care of the rest, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports. The Cubs are 22 games below .500, but McCutchen suggests players remember that, one day, things might be different. "When you lose for so long, you hope those things that happen in the minors, that those guys get the work they need to get done so when they get the chance to come here and play, they're ready to go," says McCutchen. "It's not fun when you are losing, but it's a process that down the road that things are going to get better.''
East Notes: Haren, Jeter, Abreu
The Yankees and Nationals discussed a possible Dan Haren deal last weekend, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports. The two sides never came close to making a trade, and Rosenthal suggests that money might have been part of the reason why — Haren would have only started three times for the Yankees (and wouldn't have been eligible for the playoffs, if the Yankees were to win a spot), but he was still due about $1.5MM in salary. The Yankees' interest stemmed from the recent troubles of Phil Hughes and David Huff.
- Yankees icon Derek Jeter should consider retiring, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman writes. Heyman argues that, after a season ruined by injury, Jeter faces a future in which he might just be a utility player, and that would be an undignified end to a great career. Playing well at shortstop at age 40 is very difficult, and Jeter will face an uphill battle if he tries to return next season.
- The Red Sox have joined the Giants as teams who are scouting Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu in the Dominican Republic, Dionisio Soldevila of ESPNDeportes.com tweets. We've already heard reports of the Red Sox's interest in Abreu, and Boston seems like a good fit for Abreu — the Red Sox have the financial resources to sign him, and Mike Napoli becomes a free agent after the season.
West Notes: Hoffman, Giants, Abreu, Garza
The Padres have promoted former star closer Trevor Hoffman to upper level pitching coordinator and special assistant to GM Josh Byrnes, according to a team release. His duties will include coordinating and evaluating pitchers in the high minors and at the big-league level. Hoffman has worked in the Padres front office since he retired as a player in 2011 after racking up 552 of his career 601 saves as a Padre. Here are more notes from the West divisions.
- Giants general manager Brian Sabean and former manager Felipe Alou are currently in the Dominican Republic, scouting Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu, Dionisio Soldevila of ESPNDeportes.com tweets. In late August, the Giants were reported to be interested in Abreu. Abreu, who defected from Cuba earlier this summer, appears likely to receive a contract even larger than that of Yasiel Puig, who got seven years and $42MM from the Dodgers.
- Matt Garza has been a disappointment for the Rangers since they traded for him, but that's consistent with the rest of his career, ESPN's Jayson Stark says on ESPN Dallas' Fitzsimmons and Durrett podcast. "If you look at his body of work, you think that the performance has ever totally matched the stuff?" Stark asks. Garza's peripherals with Texas (8.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9) remain above average, but it's likely a 4.46 ERA isn't what the Rangers were hoping for when they acquired him. Stark also adds that the Cubs "sold high" on Garza, dealing him after a string of good starts against bad teams.
AL Notes: Napoli, Hochevar, Wedge
Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli says he wants to return to the team next season, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. Since he has stayed healthy, Napoli has earned the maximum $13MM value of his one-year deal with Boston for 2013. Napoli thinks there's no reason he shouldn't get a multiyear contract this winter, given that his AVN (a condition that leads to degeneration of bone in his hips) has not progressed. "After last offseason, I can’t really [guess], because after going into last offseason thinking I’d get that multi-year contract, I did my time, I’m a free agent, finally got that time, and look what happened," Napoli says. Here are more notes from the American League.
- It's unclear what the Royals will do with Luke Hochevar next season, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star writes. He has had surprising success out of the bullpen this year, but it's questionable whether a team like the Royals ought to continue to employ him as a setup man after he gets a raise on his $4.6MM 2013 salary in arbitration this offseason. Given that Ervin Santana and Bruce Chen will be free agents, the Royals could also use Hochevar in the rotation, even though he mostly struggled in his career as a starter. Dutton also raises the possibility that the Royals could trade closer Greg Holland and use Hochevar in that role.
- It would be surprising if manager Eric Wedge returned to the Mariners next season, but that doesn't mean the team's problems are primarily his fault, writes Dave Cameron of USS Mariner. In fact, Cameron argues, firing Wedge would merely be part of a larger pattern in which the team fires an employee in order to provide scapegoats for the organization's mistakes. And if the Mariners were to fire Wedge, qualified replacements would not see the position as an attractive one, due to the risk that GM Jack Zduriencik will be fired and his replacement would want to bring in his own manager.
Quick Hits: Qualifying Offers, Peralta, Harrison
The list of pitchers likely to receive qualifying offers this year includes Hiroki Kuroda, Ervin Santana and A.J. Burnett, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs writes. But Cameron also looks into some less obvious candidates, like Tim Lincecum of the Giants and Josh Johnson of the Blue Jays. Three pitchers (Kuroda, Rafael Soriano, and Kyle Lohse) received qualifying offers last offseason; Cameron seems to think that number should be slightly higher this winter. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- Jhonny Peralta, who was suspended for his role in the Biogenesis scandal, will soon be eligible to begin a rehab assignment, but the Tigers aren't sure what they'll do with him, MLB.com's Jason Beck reports. The season has ended for all the Tigers' minor-league teams, which makes the Florida instructional league, which begins September 19, the most likely possibility. The Tigers must decide by September 26 whether to place Peralta back on the active roster. They don't appear to have made that decision yet. Peralta becomes a free agent at the end of the season.
- Starter Matt Harrison had his third surgery of the season on Monday, but the Rangers have insurance on his contract, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports. Harrison is signed to a five-year, $55MM contract that begins this season. He's set to make $13MM annually in 2015 through 2017. The insurance on Harrison is fortunate for the Rangers, as is the fact that Harrison's latest surgery is on his non-throwing shoulder.