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Transaction Retrospection

A Cash Transaction Paying Off For The Giants

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It has been a middling start for the Giants, who fell to 16-20 with a loss to the Nationals this evening. San Francisco’s lineup has been a mediocre group overall, largely thanks to slow starts from Michael Conforto, David Villar and Brandon Crawford.

Despite the bland overall results, the Giants are getting strong contributions from a handful of players acquired in minor trades. LaMonte Wade Jr., J.D. Davis and Mike Yastrzemski all landed in the organization via small or buy-low deals. That’s also true of the player who has been arguably the team’s most valuable contributor in 2023: middle infielder Thairo Estrada.

Estrada began his professional career a little more than a decade ago. He signed with the Yankees as an amateur out of Venezuela. While he was never an elite prospect, the 5’10” infielder appeared among the organization’s top 30 minor league talents at Baseball America every year between 2014-19. Estrada had been an effective hitter up through Double-A but he lost the bulk of the 2018 season after being shot in the leg during a robbery attempt the preceding offseason. He required a pair of surgeries, and while he returned to play the majority of the ’19 campaign, his offensive numbers in Triple-A dropped.

The Yankees played Estrada sparingly at the big league level between 2019-20. Relegated to a depth role on a roster with DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela and Gleyber Torres, he appeared in 61 games in pinstripes. New York designated him for assignment during the first week of the 2021 season upon trading for Rougned Odor to serve as a depth infielder. The Giants jumped the waiver order, acquiring Estrada for cash five days later.

Getting any kind of contributions from a player added for that kind of minimal cost would have counted as a win. Estrada has far exceeded what the Giants themselves likely had anticipated. He was on and off the active roster in 2021, hitting .273/.333/.479 in 52 big league contests. By last season, he’d established himself as the primary second baseman. Estrada held that job with another above-average showing, putting together a .260/.322/.400 line with 14 home runs and 21 stolen bases through a personal-high 541 plate appearances.

San Francisco tabbed Estrada as its Opening Day second baseman for a second consecutive season. He’s responded with a torrid start, carrying a .338/.388/.522 slash over 38 games. He’s already connected on six home runs and seven doubles, and he’s swiped 10 bags in 12 attempts. Estrada has split his defensive work almost evenly between the two middle infield spots, moving to shortstop lately after Crawford hit the injured list. Public metrics suggest he’s better suited for second base, where he figures to return once Crawford is healthy.

Estrada isn’t going to keep hitting at this pace. He’s running a .396 batting average on balls in play in spite of a modest 31.8% hard contact rate. As a few more batted balls find gloves, his offense will take a step back. Even with some regression, Estrada looks to have established himself as a slightly above-average hitter. He’s now up to 820 plate appearances of .277/.336/.435 batting since landing in San Francisco. He puts the ball in play to compensate for middling walk totals and has solid if unexceptional power.

Combine that offense with quality baserunning and the ability to play up the middle and Estrada looks like a well-rounded everyday option who’s currently playing at an All-Star level. The Giants have already gotten far more out of Estrada than teams get in the vast majority of transactions for players who’d been in DFA limbo.

He’s likely to remain a contributor — albeit not quite at his early-season level — for the next few seasons. Estrada is making just $2.25MM in his first of four years of arbitration eligibility. The Giants can keep him around via that process through 2026. It’s rare for teams to retain players whom they’d added in a cash transaction for multiple seasons but Estrada has played his way into an important role in the Bay Area.

The Trade That Started The Current Era Of White Sox Baseball

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At the end of the 2016 season, the White Sox found themselves at a remove from recent success. They hadn’t posted a winning record since 2012 and hadn’t made the postseason since 2008. There was some talent on the roster but it was decided that it was time to hit the reset button. After much speculation, they gave a clear indication that they were going into a rebuild in December of 2016 when they traded left-hander Chris Sale to the Red Sox for prospects Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz.

Sale was already well established as one of the better pitchers in the game. At the time of the trade, he had thrown 1110 innings with an even ERA of 3.00, striking out 27.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.8% and getting grounders at a solid 43.8% clip. The White Sox had signed him to an extension going into 2013, a deal that ran through 2017 but with two affordable club options after that. Flipping an excellent pitcher with three affordable years of control left little doubt that a significant teardown was beginning.

The trade worked out very well for the Red Sox, as they would make the postseason in two of those three years with Sale, including winning the World Series in 2018. They then signed him to another extension going into 2019, which is a separate matter. Injuries have largely prevented him from providing much value on that deal, but the trade still looks like a success. They gave up some future talent but saw Sale post a 2.90 ERA in 2017 and then a 2.11 in 2018 as they hoisted their fourth title in a span of 15 years after an 86-year drought.

For the Pale Hose, this was the first of several future-focused moves they would make around that time. The day after the Sale deal, they traded outfielder Adam Eaton to the Nationals for young pitchers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Dane Dunning. In July of 2017, they would send lefty José Quintana across town to the Cubs for a package headlined by prospects Dylan Cease and Eloy Jiménez. Many of the players involved in these deals would go on to form the core of the club as it returned to contention, alongside homegrown players like Tim Anderson and Luis Robert Jr..

The return on Sale needed to be huge, given his immense talent and three remaining years of cheap control. Indeed, the White Sox secured an incredibly significant prospect package, highlighted by Moncada. A high profile youngster out of Cuba, he signed with the Red Sox in March of 2015 for a $31.5MM bonus. This was back before the hard spending cap on international amateurs was put in place, but the Sox did have to pay a 100% tax because they had already exceeded their bonus pool figure, meaning they shelled out $63MM to get Moncada into the system.

He then played incredibly well in Single-A in 2015, hitting .278/.380/.438 for a wRC+ of 135. In 2016, he shot through High-A and Double-A and even made an eight-game debut in the majors. He struggled in that first taste of the show but was still just 21 years old at the time of the trade and was considered one of the top prospects in the league. Baseball America ranked him the #3 prospect in baseball going into 2016 and #2 in 2017.

Prospects with such high rankings are rarely traded, so it was a significant haul for the White Sox. The Red Sox likely have few regrets since Sale helped them to another title, but that wasn’t all Chicago got in return. Kopech was a notable prospect in his own right, having been selected in the first round of the 2014 draft. He had shown good form in the lower levels of the minors and was also on BA’s top 100 list, coming in at #89 in 2016 and was eventually placed #32 going into 2017. Basabe was a bit behind those two but was still an intriguing player, ranked Boston’s #9 prospect in 2016 and then Chicago’s #8 prospect going into 2017. Diaz was the least notable of the bunch but still cracked BA’s list of top White Sox farmhands after the deal, getting the #26 spot.

Moncada would scuffle a bit in his first two seasons in Chicago. Over 2017 and 2018, he walked in 10.9% of his trips to the plate but also struck out in 33% of them. He did hit 25 combined home runs over those two years but his .234/.321/.403 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 99, a hair below league average. In 2019, he finally broke out and showed why he had been so touted as a prospect. He launched 25 more homers that year and slashed .315/.367/.548 for a wRC+ of 139. He was also graded well for his third base defense and stole 10 bases, leading to a tally of 5.5 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, making him one of the top 20 position players that year. 2020 was set to be his final year of club control, but the White Sox decided they believed in the breakout and committed to Moncada. The two sides agreed in March of 2020 to a $70MM extension that runs through 2024 and has a club option for 2025.

It’s been a bit of a mixed bag since that deal was inked. Moncada slumped a bit in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season but the club went 35-25 and qualified for the postseason for the first time since 2008. He was back on form in 2021, hitting just 14 home runs but walking at an excellent 13.6% rate. His .263/.375/.412 line translated to a 120 wRC+ and he continued to get good grades for his glovework, leading to a 4.0 fWAR season. The Sox went 93-69 and topped the American League Central, making the postseason in consecutive years for the first time in franchise history.

2022 was a frustrating season for both player and team. Moncada made trips to the injured list for an oblique strain, a right hamstring strain and then a left hamstring strain. He got into just 104 games and didn’t play up to his usual standard when on the field. He was one of many injuries that held the club back, as they finished 81-81 and failed to extend their postseason run into a third year. He roared out of the gates here in 2023, hitting .308/.325/.564 in nine games, but he’s been on the injured list for a few weeks now due to a protruding disc in his back that’s touching a nerve.

Though he’s been inconsistent, Moncada has shown the capacity to be an excellent player when everything is clicking and he’s been a key part of the club’s recent success. It’s hard to say the same for Kopech, however, as various circumstances have prevented him from reaching the heights that had previously been imagined for him. By the time the 2018 season rolled around, Kopech was considered by BA to be the #11 prospect in the league. That year, he thrived in Triple-A, posting a 3.70 ERA over 24 starts while striking out 31.3% of batters faced. He got called up to the majors in August but made just four starts before requiring Tommy John surgery, which wiped out the remainder of that season as well as his 2019. He then opted out of the 2020 pandemic season, returning to the club in 2021. Since he had missed two whole seasons, he was kept in relief that year. He fared well in that role, registering a 3.50 ERA in 69 1/3 innings, striking out 36.1% of batters faced.

He had built up a decent innings total that would allow him to return to the rotation in 2022, but the reins weren’t completely off. He made trips to the injured list for a knee strain and shoulder inflammation, tossing 119 1/3 innings on the year. He finished with a 3.54 ERA but a diminished 21.3% strikeout rate. A .223 batting average on balls in play likely helped him skate by, with his 4.50 FIP and 4.73 SIERA showing a bit less enthusiasm. He’s struggled out of the gates early here in 2023, with a 7.01 ERA after five starts.

As for the other two players in the deal, Basabe topped out at Double-A in the White Sox’ system before getting designated for assignment in 2020. He was then traded to the Giants, who gave him a nine-game MLB stint that year before outrighting him in the winter. He returned to the White Sox on a minor league deal last year but was released after a rough showing in just nine Triple-A games. Diaz pitched in the lower levels of the system in 2017 but injuries prevented him from getting into any official action after that. His transactions tracker indicates he was officially released in 2021.

It’s too early to completely close the book on the trade from Chicago’s perspective. Moncada is still under contract through 2024 and there’s the option for 2025. Kopech can still be retained via arbitration through 2025. There’s still time for things to change, but as of right now, the deal looks like a sort of microcosm of the club’s rebuild on the whole. There have been some good moments but it hasn’t quite been the runaway success that was envisioned. Moncada has had some good years but has been inconsistent and held back by injuries. Kopech has shown flashes of his talent but hasn’t really put it all together yet.

That semi-successful return in the deal has coincided with a semi-successful stretch of contention for the club, who made the playoffs twice recently but now seem at risk of seeing it fall apart. Their 8-21 record has them in a hole that they will have to crawl out of soon or else they’ll have to consider another selloff like the one they started over six years ago.

Revisiting A Win-Win Trade Between The Brewers And Rays

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It’s generally rare for a significant trade to happen in the first few months of a season. Teams have just finished a winter of assembling their rosters for the campaign and don’t give up and start selling so early. Some teams dealing with injuries might want upgrades, but it’s not the time of year to send out a top prospect just to patch a temporary hole in the lineup or rotation. Front offices these days seem to like to push whatever time limits they have, saving their moves until the last moments before the trade deadline, non-tender deadline or what have you.

But there are exceptions, including one prominent one that occurred just shy of two years ago. In May of 2021, the Rays sent shortstop Willy Adames and right-hander Trevor Richards to the Brewers in exchange for righties J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. The trade was rare not only because of the timing, but the significance. Three of the players involved were relief pitchers, but Adames was established as a solid everyday shortstop who still had three-plus years of control. Trades of such players are rare at any time and especially so at at that part of the season.

What’s also of note is that both teams were in contention. The Rays had made the postseason in the two previous years, going to the World Series in 2020. They were 27-19 when this deal was struck, just a game behind the Red Sox in the AL East. The Brewers had made the playoffs three straight years and were struggling a bit in early 2021, but their 21-23 record still had them in the mix, four games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.

There were a few stars that aligned to make this happen. On the Rays’ end, they had a middle infield surplus that was inevitably going to lead to some kind of move. Wander Franco was the top prospect in the game and on a path to take that shortstop job from Adames. Franco was at High-A in 2019 but jumped to Triple-A in 2021 after the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in between. At the time of the deal, Franco was hitting .283/.333/.533 for a wRC+ of 126. The Rays had other prospects of note, Taylor Walls and Vidal Bruján, in line for middle infield jobs. Walls actually got called up in the immediate aftermath of the Adames deal, but Franco was up a month later.

On the Brewers’ end, they were in a bit of a bind at shortstop. They had Orlando Arcia at the position for many years but decided it was time to move on. His defensive marks were okay but he had a career batting line of .244/.295/.366 at the end of 2020 for a wRC+ of 71. They opened the season by moving infielder Luis Urías to short, but that went sideways pretty quickly. He had already made nine errors in the first few weeks of the season and wasn’t hitting much either.

Those factors all contributed to bring this rare trade to fruition, which was since gone well for both clubs. Adames fortified the shortstop position immediately and has been a fixture there since. He was out to a slow start at the time of the trade, hitting .197/.254/.371 as a Ray, but he hit 20 home runs for the Brewers in the remainder of the 2021 campaign and produced a batting line of .285/.366/.521 in that time for a wRC+ of 136.

The Brewers ended up winning the division by finishing with a record of 95-67, five games up on the Cards. They just missed the playoffs last year, but that was no fault of Adames. He hit 31 home runs and slashed .238/.298/.458 for a wRC+ of 109. His speed and defense helped him tally 4.6 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, tying Corbin Burnes for the team lead. He’s still with the club this year and can be retained via arbitration for 2024.

As for Richards, he was only with the club for about six weeks, getting flipped to the Blue Jays in July alongside Bowden Francis, with first baseman Rowdy Tellez coming the other way. Tellez has also been a key contributor for the Brewers, tallying 35 home runs last year and hitting .219/.306/.461 for a wRC+ of 110. Though that was very similar production to Adames at the plate, he doesn’t provide nearly as much in terms of speed or defense, leading to lesser tally of 0.8 fWAR on the year.

From the Rays’ point of view, they got more than just a few relievers, as they almost immediately started stretching Rasmussen out into a larger workload. Three of his first five outings as a Ray were of the single-inning variety, but he ramped up as the campaign went along. He eventually made 10 starts on the year, including eight to finish the season. And these weren’t just as an opener in the Tampa style. Those eight starts to end the year were all at least four innings long, with Rasmussen completing five innings in five of them.

This was a surprising development as it seemed like Rasmussen’s starting days were over, mainly due to health concerns. He had required Tommy John surgery in college in 2016, but was still drafted by the Rays in the first round, 31st overall, in 2017. They didn’t end up signing him due to concerns over that elbow, so he returned to Oregon State but needed a second TJS in August of 2017.

Despite those two surgeries, the Brewers grabbed him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft. He returned to the mound in the minors the following year, pitching mostly as a starter but logging just 74 1/3 innings. In 2020, with the minor leagues wiped out by the pandemic, Rasmussen was pitching out of the bullpen with the big league club. He tossed 15 1/3 innings over 12 appearances, posting a lackluster 5.87 ERA. He continued in that relief role early in 2021, logging 17 innings over 15 appearances with the Brewers with a 4.24 ERA.

It seems the Rays hadn’t given up on the pitcher they liked so much that they used a first-round pick on just a few years prior. They nabbed him in the Adames deal and, as mentioned, stretched him out as the season wore on. With pitchers like Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer on the injured list and alternatives like Michael Wacha, Josh Fleming and Ryan Yarbrough posting middling results, the rotation was in need of some help. Rasmussen eventually tossed 59 innings for Tampa that year over 10 starts and 10 relief appearances. He posted a 2.44 ERA, striking out 20.9% of batters faced, walking 5.7% and getting grounders at a 51.5% clip. The Rays finished 100-62 that year, eight games ahead of the Red Sox and Yankees for the division crown, though Boston would eliminate Tampa in the ALDS.

It would have been fair to wonder at that time if Rasmussen’s success with the Rays was sustainable. It was still a small sample and his total workload in the three years since his second Tommy John procedure was light, 177 innings between the majors and minors over the 2019-2021 period. But last year, he pushed those doubts aside, tossing 146 innings over 28 starts. His 2.84 ERA came with a 21.4% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 46.6% ground ball rate. He’s looked sharp through three starts here this year as well, currently sporting a 2.60 ERA with his strikeout rate up to 29.2% in the early going. He won’t reach arbitration until after this season and can be controlled for three more seasons beyond that.

Feyereisen was no slouch himself. He posted a 2.45 ERA for the Rays after the deal and then tossed 24 1/3 innings last year without allowing a single earned run. Unfortunately, he landed on the injured list in early June and wasn’t able to return, eventually undergoing shoulder surgery in December. The recovery from that procedure required a four-month shutdown period, which meant the club would be without him for the start of the 2023 campaign. He was still under club control through 2026, but the Rays were dealing with a roster crunch and designated Feyereisen for assignment shortly after that surgery, with a deal seemingly already in the works at that time. He was dealt to the Dodgers the next day in exchange for minor league lefty Jeff Belge, who posted a 3.66 ERA in High-A for the Dodgers last year. He’s started his Rays tenure with three scoreless outings in Double-A this year.

In the end, the Brewers shipped out some talented pitchers who weren’t the most essential arms on their roster. Even without Rasmussen and Feyereisen, they’ve still had excellent pitching from Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and others. In exchange, they received an excellent everyday shortstop and, indirectly, a potent bat in Tellez. The Rays parted with that excellent shortstop, but replaced him easily from within and were able to bolster their rotation and overall pitching depth.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Guardians’ Former Rule 5 Breakout Reliever

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The Guardians surprised a number of onlookers with their run to an AL Central title last season. Among the reasons for that success: a bullpen that was one of the league’s most effective. Cleveland relievers finished fifth in ERA (3.05), sixth in strikeout percentage (26.4%) and fourth in ground-ball rate (46.4%).

Some of that excellent rate production was a byproduct of a strong rotation that consistently worked deeper into games than most. Cleveland relievers finished just 26th in innings pitched. A reliable starting staff no doubt took some of the pressure off manager Terry Francona and the top late-game weapons at his disposal.

That’s not to take anything away from the coaching staff or the relievers overall, however. Cleveland had eight relievers who threw 35+ innings last season; seven of them finished with an ERA of 3.25 or better. Five allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings, with the bulk of that group consisting of generally lower-profile hurlers who were acquired without much fanfare.

That’s perhaps best personified by 27-year-old righty Trevor Stephan, who broke out with an All-Star caliber showing in his second big league season. The 6’5″ hurler pitched in 66 games and tallied 63 2/3 innings. He posted a 2.69 ERA while striking out an excellent 30.7% of opposing hitters with a solid 48.1% ground-ball rate. Stephan picked up swinging strikes on 16.2% of his total offerings, a top 25 rate among relievers with 30+ innings.

There was very little to nitpick in Stephan’s performance. He missed bats, kept the ball on the ground when he did surrender contact, and limited walks to a tiny 6.7% clip. Stephan overwhelmed right-handed opponents, surrendering just a .207/.263/.293 line in 153 plate appearances. Lefty batters hit .280 against him but without significant impact, reaching base at a .348 clip while slugging .380. Stephan mixes three pitches in a power arsenal, backing up a 96-97 MPH fastball with a wipeout splitter and a quality slider.

While that production didn’t come entirely out of nowhere, it was a huge development for a pitcher who could have found himself on the roster bubble not that long ago. Originally selected in the third round of the 2017 draft by the Yankees, the University of Arkansas product spent four years in the New York farm system but didn’t secure a 40-man roster spot. He’d posted fine but unexceptional numbers as a starting pitcher between High-A and Double-A in 2019. Like every other minor leaguer, he wasn’t able to log any game action in 2020.

The Yankees opted not to protect him from the Rule 5 draft during the 2020-21 offseason. Cleveland nabbed him with the 24th selection and kept him on the MLB roster the entire following year. Stephan had an inconsistent rookie year working mostly in low-leverage innings. He posted a 4.41 ERA through 63 1/3 frames, striking out an impressive 26.6% of opponents but surrendering far too many walks and home runs. That changed in 2022, a season in which Stephan dramatically increased the use of his split to great success.

Stephan now looks like a key-high leverage bridge to star closer Emmanuel Clase. He joins hard-throwing James Karinchak as the top righty Cleveland setup arms heading into 2023. Southpaw Sam Hentges — a former fourth-round pick who had a breakout ’22 season of his own — would have a key role if healthy, though he’s battling a shoulder issue with an uncertain recovery timetable.

Controllable through 2026 and not eligible for arbitration until next offseason, Stephan would be an incredibly valuable piece for the foreseeable future if he’s able to replicate most of last year’s success. He already looks like one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, posting the caliber of season rarely seen from players available via that process. The 2020 Rule 5 draft generally turned out far better than most, with the biggest successes coming at the Yankees’ expense. In addition to Stephan, New York lost right-hander Garrett Whitlock to their archrivals in Boston that year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Tigers Continue To Benefit From 2017 Deadline Trade

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The Tigers and Cubs were going in polar opposite directions in 2017. Detroit was headed towards a last place finish that would kick off the massive rebuild from which they’re only now emerging. Chicago was trying to defend their drought-breaking World Series title, eyeing another division championship as part of what looked to be a dynasty in the making.

Given their respective competitive windows, they made for natural trade partners as that summer’s deadline approached. The Tigers were clearly preparing to sell off some productive big leaguers; the Cubs were willing to part with young talent to bolster their push for another championship. The day before the deadline, they agreed to a deal that sent a pair of veteran role players from Detroit to Chicago in exchange for two young infielders. Catcher Alex Avila and reliever Justin Wilson landed on the North Side, while Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes headed to the Tigers.

Nearly five years later, the Tigers are reaping the benefits of that swap. Candelario, who had logged the briefest of action at the MLB level in each of the previous two seasons, served as a near-ready pickup. A corner infielder, he had no path to playing time on a Cubs team with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo on the roster. But the Tigers could afford to give him regular run, and he was an everyday player by September.

Candelario has been a regular for much of the time since. He played in 144 games in 2018, performing around the league average on both sides of the ball. His 2019 campaign was a disaster, as his power evaporated and he was optioned on and off the active roster a few times throughout the year. That seemed to call his long-term future into question, but Candelario has turned things around over the past couple seasons.

The switch-hitter returned to appear in 52 of the Tigers’ 60 games during the shortened 2020 campaign. He posted career-best numbers, managing a .297/.369/.503 line over 206 plate appearances. That’s a very impressive showing but it’d have been easy to write that off as something of an outlier. Not only were those numbers compiled in an abbreviated schedule, he benefitted from an unsustainable .372 batting average on balls in play.

To his credit, Candelario largely backed up that strong performance last year. He tallied a personal-high 626 plate appearances over 149 games, hitting .271/.351/.443 with 16 home runs and an MLB-best 42 doubles. As expected, a .039 point dip in BABIP dropped his overall numbers a bit relative to 2020. Still, last season’s production checked in 19 percentage points above the league average (119 wRC+), and he did that over a much larger body of work than he had the year before. He now owns a .278/.356/.458 mark (123 wRC+) in 832 trips to the plate going back two seasons.

Nothing Candelario does stands out as excellent, but he has developed into a well-rounded offensive player. His contact rate, hard contact frequency and average exit velocity are all slightly above-average. So too are his line drive and barrel rates, as Candelario has demonstrated a knack for consistently squaring balls up. He’s been effective from both sides of the plate — .299/.350/.473 as a righty hitter; .270/.358/.453 as a lefty — allowing skipper A.J. Hinch to plug him into the lineup no matter the matchup. And while Candelario’s not a great defender at the hot corner, public metrics have considered him competent there. With top prospect Spencer Torkelson soon to assume first base duties in the Motor City, Candelario should be plugged in at third for at least the next couple seasons.

The Tigers’ rebuild has been ongoing for a few years, so Candelario’s recent production has flown a bit under the radar on non-competitive teams. Yet Detroit played reasonably well down the stretch, and this winter’s signings of Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez — coupled with the looming debuts of Torkelson and Riley Greene — indicate they’re hoping to turn the corner in 2022. Candelario now looks like a key piece of that effort, and he remains under club control through 2023 via arbitration.

Paredes, who was in Low-A at the time of the trade, also remains in the Detroit organization. He’s yet to find much MLB success, but he’s coming off an impressive .265/.397/.451 showing over 315 plate appearances with Triple-A Toledo. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining and could yet develop into a productive infielder himself.

That the deal worked as the Tigers had hoped — at least the Candelario pick-up — doesn’t mean it didn’t pan out for the Cubs. As mentioned, Candelario was going to have a hard time finding playing time in Chicago anyhow. The Cubs obviously didn’t develop into a dynasty, but their acquisitions of Avila and Wilson proved successful enough. The former hit .239/.369/.380 in 112 plate appearances down the stretch, providing a strong on-base presence behind Willson Contreras before departing in free agency. Wilson spent a year and a half in Chicago, posting a cumulative 3.86 ERA/3.66 FIP across 72 1/3 frames of relief. Neither player was a franchise-altering star, but they were never intended to be. Avila and Wilson were brought aboard to fill specific areas on the roster (backup catcher and left-handed relief, respectively), and they both fared reasonably in doing so.

All in all, it seems this trade served both teams well. Going in differing competitive directions, the Cubs’ and Tigers’ needs aligned. Avila and Wilson were short-term but effective players for Chicago, while Candelario has since developed into the solid regular Detroit envisioned. After a significant rebuild, the Tigers are hoping to contend this year. Candelario continuing to perform as he did from 2020-21 would be a quiet but important asset alongside their big-ticket additions and graduating top prospects.

This Date In Transaction History: Red Sox Sign Mike Napoli

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On this date in 2003, the Red Sox made one of the best free-agent signings of all time. The story of David Ortiz’s Red Sox career is well-known and often recounted, however. So let’s fast-forward to this date eight years ago when the Red Sox added another pretty good first baseman/designated hitter: Mike Napoli put pen to paper and officially signed a one-year deal worth $5MM guaranteed. The deal was notable because the two sides had previously agreed to a three-year, $39MM contract that fell apart because of concern over the health of Napoli’s hip.

After the failed physical, Napoli briefly flirted with a return to the Texas Rangers, with whom he’d spent the previous two seasons. Napoli had been a significant trade acquisition for the Rangers following the 2010 season, making his one and only All-Star team while helping Texas repeat as American League champions. Though Texas would fall for the second consecutive season in the World Series, Napoli played lights out, slashing .350/.464/.700 in 28 plate appearances with two home runs and 10 runs driven in.

Regardless, the Red Sox had more playing time to offer the former catcher, and he became Boston’s new first basemen with a deal guaranteeing $5MM while still providing a ceiling of $13MM based on incentives. The 31-year-old would take home the full boat, cashing in with 139 games played, 578 plate appearances, and 3.7 rWAR by way of a .259/.360/.482 batting line. He chipped in 23 home runs despite a 32.4 percent strikeout rate.

Napoli was absolutely a contributing factor in the Red Sox turning around a 93-loss team from the season prior, becoming a 97-win juggernaut that rolled past the Rays, Tigers, and Cardinals to win the World Series title. Though Napoli would play in the World Series three times, 2013 was the only time he’d walk away with a ring.

Ultimately, though the hip issue got Napoli’s Boston tenure off to an inauspicious start, the relationship was an unmitigated success, so much so that Napoli re-upped following that 2013 campaign for another two seasons at a $16MM AAV. Ultimately, Napoli earned $45MM over that three-year stretch, well more than the $39MM he would have earned under the original terms of his deal.

These days, Napoli is a Quality Assurance Coach on the staff of one of his former teammates from that 2013 team, David Ross.

This Date In Transactions History: Three-Team Sonny Gray Trade

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On this date three years ago, the Reds, Mariners and Yankees reached agreement on a complex deal. Not only was it a fairly uncommon three-team trade, the deal pushed across the finish line only when the most notable player involved agreed to a three-year contract extension with his new club.

As part of that January 21, 2019 agreement, the Reds landed Sonny Gray. Cincinnati agreed to take on the right-hander’s $7.5MM salary for that season and promised him an additional $30.5MM through 2022. (The deal also included a $12.5MM club option for 2023). The Reds also landed left-handed pitching prospect Reiver Sanmartín from New York. In exchange, they sent infielder Shed Long Jr. to Seattle, who flipped their recent second-round draftee, Josh Stowers, to the Yankees.

Gray, an All-Star and AL Cy Young award finalist in 2015, was the obvious headliner of the deal. After a generally strong run in Oakland, he was sent to the Yankees at the 2017 trade deadline. Yet Gray didn’t fare as well during his year-plus in the Bronx, posting a mediocre 4.51 ERA/4.40 FIP across 195 2/3 innings. He dealt with particular struggles in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, managing a 6.55 ERA in home contests during his time in pinstripes.

The Reds identified Gray as a target as they neared the end of a rebuild that had landed them in the basement in the NL Central for four straight seasons. They were rewarded for that decision, as Gray immediately turned things around in his new environs. He twirled 175 1/3 frames with a 2.87 ERA during his first season with the Reds, earning his second All-Star nod and some down ballot Cy Young votes in the process. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged Gray as the most valuable player on the team that year by Wins Above Replacement.

Gray’s excellent debut season wasn’t enough to get the Reds to the postseason, but Cincinnati did qualify for an expanded playoff the next year. His 56 innings of 3.70 ERA ball in the shortened season weren’t quite as impressive as his first-year numbers, but it was still solidly above-average output that contributed to a decent 31-29 team showing. The Reds didn’t make the playoffs over a full schedule last year, but Gray had another nice showing. The 32-year-old’s 4.19 ERA marked a bit of a step back, but a 27% strikeout rate, 47.2% ground-ball percentage and 3.85 SIERA suggest he may have been adversely affected by a poor defense behind him.

Cincinnati hasn’t had the team success they’d no doubt hoped to achieve over the past three seasons. That’s not any fault of Gray’s, though. Over 366 2/3 innings with the Reds, the Vanderbilt product has posted a 3.49 ERA/3.57 FIP, holding opposing hitters to a meager .208/.292/.345 line. Buying low after his struggles with the Yankees proved a shrewd move for former president Dick Williams, general manager Nick Krall, and the rest of the Cincinnati front office.

It remains to be seen whether Gray’s tenure with the Reds is finished. He’s still controllable for two seasons under the terms of the extension he signed at the time of the trade. The organization may be looking to cut payroll after the lockout, and Gray perhaps offers the best blend of recent productivity, availability in trade and 2022 salary (around $10.167MM) of anyone on the roster.

Whether Gray winds up dealt for a third time or opens next season in Cincinnati, the deal counts as a win for the Reds in retrospect. In fact, of the three prospects involved in the trade, Sanmartín is the only one who remains with the club that acquired him. He made his first two MLB starts during the final week of last season and could be a depth starter or long reliever for Cincinnati this year.

The other two prospects — Long and Stowers — were more well-regarded than Sanmartín at the time of the trade. Neither emerged as a long-term option in their new organizations, though. Long tallied 412 plate appearances over three years with Seattle. He hit well as a rookie but struggled between 2020-21, dealing with recurring injury issues around his right shin. Outrighted off the Mariners 40-man roster at the end of last season, the 26-year-old elected minor league free agency and has yet to sign elsewhere. Long figures to get another opportunity — even if just via minors pact — and he’s young enough to have a real chance at turning things around, but he didn’t make the kind of impact in Seattle their front office no doubt hoped he would.

Stowers, meanwhile, has yet to crack the majors. He spent two years in the New York farm system, then was traded to the Rangers last April as part of the deal that sent Rougned Odor to the Bronx. The 24-year-old outfielder (25 next month) then hit .220/.311/.466 across 351 plate appearances in Double-A. Not added to the Texas 40-man roster after the season, he’ll be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft once the lockout wraps up. As with Long, it’s far too early to close the books on Stowers’ career, but he’ll be available to the rest of the league for little more than an active roster spot in the coming months.

The deal also netted the Yankees the Reds’ Competitive Balance pick in the upcoming draft. New York used that selection (#38 overall) to nab left-hander T.J. Sikkema from the University of Missouri. Sikkema, who missed the entire 2021 campaign due to injury, was ranked by Baseball America as the #23 prospect in the Yankees’ system midseason. Between the lost minor league season in 2020 and last year’s injury-wrecked campaign, he’s still yet to advance to full season ball. Sikkema will be eligible for next offseason’s Rule 5 draft if not added to the New York 40-man roster, making the 2022 campaign a particularly important one for his future in the organization.

Note: This article was updated to reflect that the Yankees also acquired a Competitive Balance Selection from the Reds.

Transaction Retrospection: The Pirates Take Roberto Clemente From The Dodgers In The Rule 5 Draft

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Though the lockout prevented the Rule 5 Draft from taking place in its usual December timeslot, the R5 will happen at some point once the transactions freeze is over, thus continuing one of baseball’s oldest traditions.  At a time when competitive balance is at the forefront of labor talks between the league and the MLBPA, the Rule 5 Draft has long served as a vehicle for players to gain opportunities on new teams, and to prevent clubs from hoarding young talent.  While the specifics and procedures of the event changed greatly over the years, the Rule 5 Draft has existed in one form or another since 1892, becoming a staple of the offseason even if often overshadowed by bigger winter transactions featuring proven MLB stars.

And yet, the Rule 5 Draft tends to jump into the headlines whenever one of the picks ends up becoming a notable contributor to his new team.  Last year’s draft, for example, was a particularly strong class that saw Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox), Akil Baddoo (Tigers), and Tyler Wells (Orioles) all deliver strong rookie seasons.  Both the modern rules of the draft and the increased focus on prospect value make it less likely that a true superstar minor leaguer will slip through the cracks of the Rule 5, though that doesn’t stop teams from dreaming that just maybe, their next Rule 5 pick will end up being the next Roberto Clemente.

Like clockwork, Clemente’s name is inevitably mentioned every year around Rule 5 time, as the Pirates legend is certainly the most prominent player to ever be selected in the relative modern era of the R5.  (Hall-of-Famers Christy Mathewson and Hack Wilson were also Rule 5 picks, though both players had already debuted in the majors prior to their selection.)  Even in Clemente’s day, the Rule 5 Draft’s procedures were different than they are now, as Clemente was eligible to be selected due to his status as a “bonus baby.”

From 1947 to 1965, MLB had a rule in place stipulating that if any amateur player signed a contract with a bonus greater than $4K, that player had to remain on his team’s big league roster for two full seasons.  If that player wasn’t on his new team’s active roster, he was eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

This is exactly what happened to Clemente, signed by the then-Brooklyn Dodgers in February 1954 at age 19.  Signed for a $10K bonus and a $5K salary, that type of money in 1954 alone put Clemente on the radar of other teams, and international scouts were already well aware of Clemente’s potential.  The Braves reportedly offered Clemente a much larger bonus, but he opted to stick with the Dodgers since he had already verbally agreed to their deal.

However, even with all of this known interest in Clemente, the Dodgers didn’t put him on their 25-man roster.  Brooklyn had won the last two National League pennants, and with the team aiming to finally break through and win the World Series, the Dodgers felt they couldn’t afford to have an untested rookie filling a roster spot.  Clemente was instead assigned to the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Montreal, as the Dodgers seemingly just crossed their fingers that they could sneak him through the Rule 5 field.

In a 2019 piece for The Athletic, Stephen J. Nesbitt unraveled some of the mythology surrounding Clemente’s brief Dodgers tenure.  The popular version of the story is that Montreal tried to shield Clemente from rival scouts by limiting his playing time and benching him whenever he had a good game, or removing him from the lineup if he had a big hit early in a game.  However, SABR researcher Stew Thornley noted that the right-handed hitting Clemente was almost never deployed against right-handed pitching, so a strict platoon could have been more to blame for Clemente’s lack of playing time than any attempt from the Dodgers to try and “hide” him.

Besides, while Clemente hit only .257/.286/.372 in his 155 plate appearances with Montreal, his raw ability was hard to miss.  (Clemente was also on fire while playing winter ball in Puerto Rico around the time of the R5.)  The Pirates took clear notice, and since they had the first pick of the 1954 Rule 5 Draft, Clemente was quickly Pittsburgh-bound that offseason.  If the Dodgers’ strategy was indeed to just hope that other teams would ignore such a prominent prospect, the bet didn’t pay off.

As Nesbitt notes, longtime Dodgers GM Buzzie Bavasi has told a few different stories in regard to why or how Brooklyn lost Clemente, such as Pirates GM Branch Rickey backing out of a gentleman’s agreement to not take Clemente in the Rule 5 Draft.  In another version, Bavasi claimed the Dodgers signed Clemente solely to keep him away from the arch-rival Giants, and eventually direct him via the R5 to an also-ran team.  Bavasi also said in an e-mail to Thornley in 2005 that Jackie Robinson personally told the front office that adding Clemente to the team and removing a white player from the roster “would be setting our program back five years.”

All of Bavasi’s claims seem to only generate more questions than answers, and yet the end result was still Clemente in a Pirates uniform.  In the short term, losing Clemente didn’t hurt the Dodgers, as the team continued being a perennial contender and won four World Series titles between 1955-65.  As well, Clemente took some time to fully adjust to the majors, hitting a modest .289/.311/.395 with 26 home runs over his first five seasons and 2560 plate appearances with Pittsburgh.

Needless to say, however, Clemente is an awfully big “one that got away.”  One can only imagine how much more successful the Dodgers would have been with Clemente in their lineup, especially after he broke out into true stardom.  From 1960-72, Clemente hit .329/.375/.503 with 214 home runs while playing peerless right field defense and unleashing arguably the best outfield throwing arm in baseball history on many a hapless baserunner.  If Bavasi did count on Clemente being suppressed on a losing team, that plan backfired — the Pirates ended becoming much more competitive during Clemente’s tenure, highlighted by World Series championships in both 1960 and 1971.

It could be that losing Clemente inspired the Dodgers to take a bit more care with their next “bonus baby” player.  The next season, Brooklyn signed another promising youngster to a hefty $14K bonus and stuck with him on the MLB roster for the next two seasons.  Like Clemente, it also took this player some time to become a star, yet the Dodgers’ patience more than paid off as Sandy Koufax started dominating batters.

Clemente’s legend perhaps looms largest on December 31, as it was on this day in 1972 that Clemente and three other passengers died during a plane crash off the coast of Puerto Rico.  The flight was a relief mission intended to bring aid to Nicaragua following an earthquake, and Clemente wanted to personally supervise the delivery to ensure that the goods would reach their intended destination.  Clemente was only 38 years old at the time of his tragic passing.

The Giants Picked Up A Productive Outfielder In An Under-The-Radar Deal Last Winter

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The Giants had quite a few unexpected contributors last year en route to a surprising franchise-record 107 wins. Among that group was a player quietly acquired a month before the start of Spring Training. An unheralded pickup at the time, LaMonte Wade Jr. turned out to be an impressive find who could be a valuable part of the San Francisco outfield for the next few seasons.

Last February, San Francisco picked up Wade from the Twins as part of a one-for-one swap that sent righty Shaun Anderson to Minnesota. Wade, 27, had briefly appeared in each of the prior two seasons for the Twins but had a grand total of 113 big league plate appearances under his belt. A .211/.336/.347 hitter in that time, he had an impressive strikeout and walk profile but little else on his MLB resume.

Yet the Giants saw something of interest in Wade, whether based on their scouts’ evaluations or his minor league numbers. He’d hit .246/.392/.356 in Triple-A in 2019. The left-handed hitter only popped five home runs, but his 14.4% strikeout rate and 16.8% walk percentage at the minors’ top level were both far better than the league average. It was an interesting showing, but Wade’s lack of power was concerning for a player whom most scouting reports suggested was best suited for the corner outfield.

It’s easy to understand why the Twins front office felt that moving Wade was subtracting a depth option from an area of organizational strength. They already had Byron Buxton and Max Kepler entrenched in the outfield, and top prospects Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis and Trevor Larnach all looked to be approaching themselves. (Kirilloff had debuted in the majors during the 2020 postseason). Wade wasn’t at the level of those other players, and he was entering his final minor league option year.

Yet the deal backfired for Minnesota essentially immediately. Anderson allowed 12 runs in 8 2/3 innings with the Twins before being designated for assignment. Claimed off waivers by the Rangers, he bounced around between a few organizations before finally clearing waivers last month. He’s a member of the Blue Jays now but no longer occupies a 40-man roster spot.

Wade, on the other hand, had a quality showing in his first extended MLB look. He hit .253/.326/.482 with 18 home runs over 381 plate appearances for San Francisco. He became a bit more aggressive at the plate, and his walk and strikeout numbers (8.7% and 23.4%, respectively) were actually fairly ordinary.

Instead, Wade hit for a surprising amount of power. In addition to the 18 homers, he rapped 17 doubles and three triples. That’s a 28-homer, 27-double pace over 600 plate appearances (roughly the equivalent of a full season’s worst of playing time). His .229 isolated power far outpaced the .171 league average. According to Statcast, his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard contact rate were each a fair bit better than the league mark.

That’s not to say the Twins gave away a future star. The Giants deployed Wade almost exclusively against right-handed pitching, leveraging their strong depth to put him in position to succeed. As a result of the heavy platooning, his rate numbers were probably better than they’d have been had he been asked to play everyday and drawn more assignments against tough lefties. As scouting reports had suggested, Wade was also primarily limited to the corner outfield and first base, only picking up two starts in center field.

Not all deals have to bring back All-Stars, though. The Giants have already gotten the better end of the swap, and Wade looks to have a good chance of being a quality contributor within the San Francisco outfield mix over the next few seasons. If that proves to be the case, the deal will be a nice feather in the cap of president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his staff — an example of a team successfully pulling from another organization’s area of depth to unearth a valuable addition to their roster.

Transaction Retrospection: Alex Rodriguez Signs With The Rangers

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Alex Rodriguez makes his debut on the Hall of Fame ballot this winter, and given all of the PED-related controversy that surrounded his career, it remains to be seen if he will ever end up with a plaque in Cooperstown.  His fate will ultimately be determined by how the writers (and, quite possibly, future veterans committees) view these off-the-field actions, whereas for the average HOF candidate, discussions usually just center around the numbers.

In terms of pure statistics, Rodriguez more than qualifies for induction.  And yet beyond the 696 home runs, 14 All-Star appearances, and three MVP awards, one number has defined Rodriguez’s career — $252,000,000.

It was on this day in 2000 that Rodriguez dropped a bombshell on the sports world by signing a ten-year, $252MM free agent contract with the Rangers.  It was far and away the largest contract ever signed in pro sports, let alone in MLB.  (Just a few days before Rodriguez’s deal, Mike Hampton inked an eight-year, $121MM deal with the Rockies that briefly stood as the biggest contract in baseball history.)  Even 21 years later, A-Rod’s Rangers contract is still the twelfth-richest contract ever signed in baseball.

To be clear, there was no doubt that Rodriguez was going to land some sort of record-setting deal that winter.  The first overall pick of the 1993 draft had done nothing but live to that lofty status over his first seven seasons, hitting .309/.374/.561 with 189 home runs over 3515 plate appearances with the Mariners.  Besides being a five-tool player, Rodriguez also had youth on his side, as he hit the open market when he was only 25 years old.  A team could reasonably count on A-Rod to continue posting superstar-level numbers over at least the next decade, which only helped agent Scott Boras’ case that his client deserved a unique type of contract.

But for an eye-popping $252MM number, a unique type of bidder was needed.  Enter the Rangers.  Tom Hicks purchased the team in June 1998, and while Texas won AL West titles in both 1998 and 1999, they were swept out of the ALDS in both years.  After the Rangers stumbled to a 71-91 record in 2000, Hicks felt a major shakeup was required, and that included an unprecedented splurge on the top free agent available.

As you might expect, the reactions to Rodriguez’s signing ranged somewhere between wonder and outrage.  Many felt it was a sign of irresponsible spending, as then-Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker described the contract as “The sooner we run this up the flagpole, the sooner we get to D-Day and a catastrophic event” for competitive balance in baseball.

This viewpoint also extended to the Commissioner’s Office.  MLB’s executive VP of baseball operations Sandy Alderson said he was “sort of stupefied” by Rodriguez’s deal, as “we have effectively doubled the previous most lucrative contract in two days. I don’t like the exponentiality of all of that.  We have a straight-up trend that doesn’t augur well.  To me, it’s incredible.

“For every Texas, there are five teams like Oakland who traded their second baseman, let go of their starting right fielder and saw their No. 2 pitcher sign a $40 million contract as a free agent with another team.  I suggest you ask the players on teams such as that whether this game is as healthy as this signing suggests.”

There is no small amount of irony in these comments some 21 years later, on several levels.  Firstly, Athletics fans are undoubtedly sighing deeply over the fact that both now and then, their team’s “cycle” of roster reloads has continued to spin.  Secondly, competitive balance continues to be a cornerstone issue between players and owners amidst the current lockout, though one of the primary concerns on the MLBPA’s side is that larger-market teams aren’t spending enough, and that the league’s mechanisms to ostensibly protect competitive balance (draft bonus pools, luxury tax penalties, draft pick compensation for free agents, etc.) are driving salaries down.

And, Alderson himself is now president of the Mets, working for an aggressive owner in Steve Cohen who has — like Hicks in 2000 — shown himself to be unfazed by signing precedents.  Since Alderson returned to the Mets in September 2020, New York has already signed Francisco Lindor to a ten-year, $341MM contract extension, and set a new record for average annual value by signing Max Scherzer to a three-year, $130MM pact.  (In another ironic twist, an ownership group led by Rodriguez and ex-fiancee Jennifer Lopez were among the strongest bidders for the Mets last year before Cohen ultimately bought the club.)

In hindsight, the critics were technically right, in that signing Rodriguez didn’t help the Rangers to any success on the field.  Texas didn’t enjoy a single winning record in Rodriguez’s three years with the club, and Hicks came to see A-Rod’s deal as a payroll albatross.  Of course, the issue was more due to the lack of talent Texas built around Rodriguez, rather than what Rodriguez was doing himself.  A-Rod held up his end of the contract with the Rangers, hitting .305/.395/.615 with 156 homers over his three seasons in Arlington and capturing AL MVP honors in 2003.

By February 2004, Rodriguez’s tenure with the Rangers was already over, as he was dealt to the Yankees in a blockbuster swap in exchange for Alfonso Soriano, Joaquin Arias, and (possibly most importantly) $112MM of the $179MM that remained on A-Rod’s deal.  This trade came about only after an earlier proposed trade with the Red Sox was vetoed by the MLBPA since Rodriguez would have been giving up $28MM in salary, and thus A-Rod found himself in the Bronx.

As it happens, Rodriguez is actually still receiving money from the Rangers to this day, via deferred payments from his original contract and re-brokered in the wake of the Rangers filing for bankruptcy in 2010.  What was once seen as a transformative signing in the franchise’s history ultimately became something of an expensive footnote, and even a cautionary tale.  It’s one thing to sign a can’t-miss superstar (even at a $252MM price tag), but quite another to keep making canny roster moves to make sure that superstar’s prime years aren’t being wasted.

It is a lesson that the current Rangers front office surely has in the back of their minds as they embark on another spending spree.  In the wake of five consecutive losing seasons and a pared-down payroll, Texas has zoomed back to prominence this winter by landing Jon Gray (four years, $56MM), Marcus Semien (seven years, $175MM) and, biggest of all, Corey Seager for 10 years and $325MM.  That’s another star shortstop on another 10-year deal, except with $73MM more in guaranteed money.  Texas fans can only hope that the “Transaction Retrospection” MLBTR is writing about the Seager contract in 21 years’ time carries many more references to World Series championships, rather than the sour feelings left behind by the A-Rod deal.

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