Astros Receive PPI Pick For Hunter Brown’s Top Three Cy Young Finish
The Baseball Writers Association of America is announcing the finalists for the 2025 awards tonight. Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is one of the American League Cy Young finalists, alongside Tarik Skubal of the Tigers and Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox. Since Brown was eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive, the Astros will receive an extra pick after the first round of the 2026 draft.
The 2022-2026 collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA introduced measures to try to reduce service time manipulation. Previously, teams would often hold their top prospects down in the minors until a few weeks into the start of a season, thus gaining an extra year of club control over the player.
Under the new CBA, if a player is on two of the three top 100 prospect lists from Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline, then his club promotes him early enough in a season to earn a full service year, that player becomes PPI eligible. If the player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three of Cy Young or MVP voting in his pre-arbitration seasons, he earns the club an extra draft pick. Each player can only earn a club one extra pick total.
Brown got called up to the majors late in 2022 but maintained rookie status going into the following season, featuring prominently on top prospect lists. The Astros haven’t optioned him to the minors since then, so he’s been a mainstay on their roster for the past three full seasons. By being up for the full 2023 season, he became PPI eligible.
He has been PPI-eligible for the past three years but he didn’t receive any awards votes in 2023 or 2024. Here in 2025, he made 31 starts for Houston, logging 185 1/3 innings. He allowed only 2.43 earned runs per nine. His 28.3% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate were all above average.
He will likely finish third in the voting behind Skubal and Crochet but it’s enough for the Astros to get a bonus pick in 2026. That’s a nice bonus for them, as the club’s farm system isn’t especially well regarded at the moment.
Julio Rodríguez, Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson each earned their clubs bonus picks by winning Rookie of the Year. Bobby Witt Jr. didn’t win Rookie of the Year but earned the Royals an extra pick by finishing in the top three of MVP voting in 2024. Drake Baldwin is a finalist for National League Rookie of the Year in 2025 and can net Atlanta an extra pick if he ultimately wins the award.
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Tyler O’Neill Declines Opt-Out Chance; Orioles Decline Jorge Mateo’s Club Option
Outfielder Tyler O’Neill is staying in Baltimore. He could have opted out of the final two years of his contract, walking away from $33MM, but Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner reports that he will forgo that chance and stay with the Orioles. In other Baltimore contract news, Francys Romero of BeisbolFR reports that the club will turn down their $5.5MM club option on infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo, who will become a free agent.
Neither decision is a major surprise. O’Neill, 31 in June, signed a three-year, $49.5MM deal with the O’s last winter, with that deal giving him a chance to opt out after the first season. At the time, he was coming off a solid 31-homer season with the Red Sox. However, he had a lengthy injury history. The deal was hopefully going to give the O’s a potent bat while O’Neill could return to the open market if he had a healthy and productive season.
It did not work out as hoped. O’Neill had multiple IL stints due to neck, shoulder and wrist injuries. He only got into 54 games and put up a dismal .199/.292/.392 line in those. After that performance, he wasn’t going to top $33MM, so he’ll stay with the O’s for another two seasons.
Baltimore’s outfield picture should look different next year, as they traded Cedric Mullins and Ramón Laureano at the deadline. Going into next year, O’Neill is in the mix for playing time alongside Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers, Jeremiah Jackson and others. It’s also possible the Orioles give O’Neill lots of time as the designated hitter to keep him off the IL, though they also might want to have catchers Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo sharing the DH spot. Basallo can play first but the O’s also have Coby Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle in the mix there, unless Mountcastle is traded or non-tendered.
Mateo, 31 in June, has been with the O’s since 2021. He’s never been much of a hitter but has been a useful bench/utility piece thanks to his ability to steal bases and play multiple positions. 2025 was his final year of arbitration. He and the O’s avoided arb by agreeing to a $3.55MM salary with a $5.5MM club option for 2026.
However, 2025 was mostly a lost season for Mateo. He underwent left elbow surgery in August of 2024. Inflammation in that elbow put him back on the shelf in June of this year. While on a rehab assignment in July, he suffered a hamstring strain that kept him out of action until September.
Around all those injuries, Mateo got into 43 games and hit .177/.217/.266, so the O’s have made the easy decision to move on. He’ll become a free agent for the first time in his career. The O’s could bring him back at a lower price point or even on a minor league deal. Other clubs might also be interested in him as a depth add on a minor league pact or a modest big league deal for a utility role.
Photo courtesy of James A. Pittman, Imagn Images
Santiago Espinal Elects Free Agency
TODAY: As expected, Espinal rejected the outright assignment and chose to become a free agent, the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer reports.
OCTOBER 31: The Reds announced today that infielder Santiago Espinal has been sent outright to Triple-A Louisville. That indicates he cleared waivers in recent days. He has the right to elect free agency and will presumably do so in the coming days.
It’s common for clubs to clear roster space at this time of year. The offseason will begin in the coming days, which means the injured list goes away. Players on the 60-day IL will need to retake roster spots, though some players are also heading to free agency. The Reds don’t have a super tight roster crunch at the moment. RosterResource pegs them at 38 guys for the start of the winter, though picking up options on Brent Suter and Scott Barlow could have got them back up to 40. Espinal’s removal drops them to 37, not including Suter or Barlow.
Even if the Reds don’t strictly need a roster spot right now, there’s value in opening one. Perhaps some interesting players will be put on waivers by other clubs in the coming days. The Reds will also presumably want to add a few players to the roster to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Espinal wasn’t going to be long for the roster anyway. His performance has been declining for a while now. He could have been retained for the 2026 season via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2.9MM salary, but the Reds were going to non-tender him.
The infielder had some decent results with the Blue Jays a few years ago, even making the All-Star team in 2022, but he hasn’t done much since then. He has stepped to the plate 973 times in the past three years with a combined .245/.298/.325 line and 71 wRC+. That includes a .243/.292/.282 line and 58 wRC+ in 2025.
At his best, Espinal can play multiple positions while hitting lefties. As recently as last year, though his overall offense was poor, he slashed .289/.344/.491 for a 122 wRC+ against southpaws. He was still better against lefties in 2025 but hit only .265/.317/.342 for a wRC+ of 81.
Assuming he elects free agency, Espinal could get interest from clubs for a bench/utility role, either on a minor league pact or a modest big league deal. He has experience at all four infield spots as well as the outfield corners.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Latest On Lucas Giolito
Right-hander Lucas Giolito had a pretty good year with the Red Sox in 2025 but it ended on a frustrating note as he wasn’t included on Boston’s postseason roster due to an elbow injury. Even before the Sox were eliminated, manager Alex Cora said Giolito was most likely not going to be coming back this year. Today, Chris Cotillo of MassLive provided an update on the righty’s status. Giolito has been on a throwing program with one source telling Cotillo that Giolito is “100%” while another source said Giolito is “making improvements.”
Giolito’s status is noteworthy at this stage of the offseason as he is about to return to free agency. He originally signed with the Red Sox ahead of the 2024 season, a two-year deal worth $38.5MM. Giolito had a chance to opt out of that deal after 2024 but he ended up missing that entire season due to UCL surgery, so he naturally decided to stay with Boston for the second season.
By foregoing that opt-out chance, he gave the Red Sox a $14MM club option for 2026. However, he could convert that to a $19MM mutual option by pitching 140 frames in 2025. He got to 145 frames this year, successfully converting it. Mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides, with the last instance being more than a decade ago at this point. As such, Giolito will almost certainly get the $1.5MM buyout instead.
There’s a long winter ahead but Giolito’s health in the near term is important. As pointed out by Cotillo, the Sox have until five days after the World Series to decide whether or not to issue Giolito a qualifying offer, which is a one-year deal worth $22.025MM. That’s roughly what the Sox have been paying Giolito annually on his two-year deal, so it’s not a huge spike.
However, there are reasons why the Sox may not feel comfortable with continuing to pay Giolito a salary in that range. The obvious one is the elbow. It has been previously reported that Giolito has no UCL damage but does have flexor irritation and a bone issue. If the Sox felt that injury could linger into 2026, then they may prefer to walk away.
The other issue is Giolito’s performance. The Sox initially bought low on him. He was a borderline ace a few years ago, earning Cy Young votes in three straight years from 2019 to 2021. But his ERA spiked to just under 5.00 in both 2022 and 2023. Even in those poor seasons, he struck out more than 25% of batters faced. That was a drop from his peak, when he was striking out around 33% of opponents, but it was still above average.
In 2025, Giolito managed to finish strong in the ERA department but without getting his strikeouts back. He had a solid 3.41 ERA for the year overall. He had a rough 6.42 ERA through seven starts but then an excellent 2.51 ERA over his final 19 starts. However, even in that latter sample, he was only punching out 20.3% of opponents. For reference, the average strikeout rate for a starting pitcher in 2025 was 21.8%. That figure is probably inflated a bit by the use of openers, but Giolito’s rate is still fairly middling.
The other issue is that the reward for making a QO may be lesser than in the past. The Sox got the 75th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Nick Pivetta rejected a QO and signed with the Padres last offseason, but that was after a year in which the Sox did not pay the competitive balance tax. Both RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimate that the Sox went slightly over the tax line in 2025. Those are unofficial estimates, but if they are accurate, then the QO compensation pick would fall to after the fourth round of the draft if Giolito were to reject a QO and sign elsewhere.
Giolito likely would have started a playoff game for the Sox if he were healthy. He and Brayan Bello were the most established options behind ace Garrett Crochet. Instead, Bello and rookie Connelly Early made starts alongside Crochet. Cotillo suggests the Sox are quite happy with Giolito, including as a veteran clubhouse leader. Even with some concerning numbers and the lesser benefit from making the QO, perhaps they will do it anyway if they would be happy for him to accept. Though even if they like Giolito, they may not want to tie up $22.025MM of their budget just as the offseason is beginning, especially if Giolito’s elbow is still an issue.
A bit of progress in the next few days could increase Boston’s willingness to issue the QO. It may also increase his willingness to turn it down and explore the market. Even if they do offer it, he gets a couple of weeks to talk to other teams and gauge his market before making his decision on the QO. His market with non-Boston teams will depend both upon his health and whether or not he is attached to a QO.
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Pirates Claim Dugan Darnell
The Pirates announced that they have claimed right-hander Dugan Darnell off waivers from the Rockies. He was immediately transferred to the 60-day injured list, so the Bucs didn’t need to open up a 40-man roster spot. In late August, it was reported that Darnell would be undergoing surgery to address a torn labrum in his hip, a procedure with a recovery timeline of about eight months.
There was no previous indication that the Rockies had removed Darnell from their roster. It’s common at this time of year for teams to place players on waivers, as many clubs are facing roster crunches. The 60-day IL goes away five days after the World Series, so players need to retake 40-man roster spots. Some breathing room is created by others reaching free agency but teams often need to clear space. Even if a team doesn’t need space now, having it is valuable throughout the winter for other moves, including protecting guys from the Rule 5 draft.
RosterResource projected the Rockies to have 41 guys for 40 roster spots at the beginning of the offseason, including Darnell. It seems Colorado tried to open a spot by passing Darnell through waivers but the Pirates intervened. The Pirates will face a crunch of their own, as RosterResource projects them to have 42 guys for 40 spots, not including Darnell. The Bucs will therefore have to do some clearing in the coming days.
For now, they are bringing a fresh relief arm into the system. Darnell, 28, was signed by the Rockies as an undrafted free agent in 2021. He got a very limited big league debut this year. He was called up August 1 but then left hip inflammation put him on the IL three weeks later. In that debut, he tossed 11 2/3 innings over nine appearances. He allowed five earned runs on ten hits and seven walks while striking out five.
That’s a small sample of work, so presumably the Bucs are also putting some stock in his minor league track record. He has thrown 255 1/3 innings on the farm with a 3.74 earned run average, 30.6% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. That includes 53 2/3 Triple-A innings in 2025, pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, with a 3.19 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 43.5% ground ball rate.
Given Darnell’s surgery timeline, he likely won’t be available until the middle of next year. Perhaps the Bucs will keep him on the 40-man through the winter and then put him on the 60-day IL again once it returns in spring training. It’s also possible the Bucs try to pass him through waivers unclaimed during the offseason, therefore keeping him as non-roster depth.
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Astros Promote Connor Huff To Assistant GM
The Astros are promoting vice-president of business and baseball operations Connor Huff to the role of assistant general manager, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. He will work under general manager Dana Brown, replacing the departing Andrew Ball.
The Astros are coming off their most disappointing season in years. They faded down the stretch and ended up 87-75, missing the postseason for the first time since 2016. To get back on track next year, there is going to be some shake-up.
Brown and manager Joe Espada are staying but it was reported a few weeks ago that several other changes are being made. Hitting coaches Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker, catching coach Michael Collins, head athletic trainer Jeremiah Randall and Ball are not coming back. In recent days, pitching coach Bill Murphy was poached away by the Pirates.
There will be challenges in upgrading the club for next year. Per RosterResource, the club’s competitive balance tax number is about $20MM shy of the tax line, even before making any offseason moves. The Astros have crossed the line at times but are generally reluctant to do so. Turning to the trade market will also be tough since Houston’s farm system is considered one of the worst in the league. Huff will step up to see if he can help Brown navigate the choppy waters.
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Orioles, Rico Garcia Agree To Terms On 2026 Salary
The Orioles announced that they have agreed to terms with right-hander Rico Garcia on a one-year split deal for the 2026 season. The club didn’t announce salary figures but Josh Tolentino and Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun report that the righty will get a $900K salary while he’s in the majors. He’d make $225K for time spent in the minors, according to The Associated Press.
It’s an unusual deal. Garcia, 32 in January, was already on the Baltimore roster, having been claimed off waivers from the Mets in August. He has less than two years of service time. That means he hasn’t yet qualified for arbitration. The O’s could have set his salary around the league minimum, which will be $780K next year. Bumping up to $900K is obviously attractive to Garcia but the O’s also expect some kind of benefit from it as well.
It’s likely the first step in a plan to have Garcia serve as non-roster depth. The O’s could put him on waivers and hope that the slightly elevated salary dissuades the other 29 clubs from putting in a claim. If Garcia passed through waivers unclaimed, he would have the right to elect free agency since he has a previous career outright. However, since he has less than five years of service time, he would have to walk away from his remaining salary commitments in exercising that right. Since Garcia is out of options, this potentially gives the O’s a way to move him to Norfolk and back, while getting around his out-of-options status.
The O’s have tried similar things before, usually with arbitration-eligible players. They agreed to a $1MM salary with infielder Emmanuel Rivera for the 2025 season. He was outrighted off the roster before the season began. During the season, he was added back to the roster and then outrighted again on three further occasions, giving the O’s an extra depth option. It doesn’t always work this way, however. The O’s and Jake Cave avoided arbitration in November of 2022, agreeing to a $950K salary for 2023. About a month later, they tried to pass him through waivers but the Phillies claimed him.
Garcia has seen limited action in five big league seasons but 2025 was his largest workload and his best performance. He tossed 34 1/3 innings for three different clubs, allowing 3.15 earned runs per nine. His 26.8% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 48.4% ground ball rate were all above average. Since he’s out of options, he bounced around the waiver wire, pitching for the Mets, Yankees and O’s last year. Perhaps the increased salary will help the O’s keep him as an up-and-down arm but it’s also possible some other club claims him and he gets paid his slightly elevated salary somewhere else.
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Nationals Outright Four Players
The Nationals announced that four players have cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Rochester. They are right-handers Eduardo Salazar and Mason Thompson, left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara and catcher CJ Stubbs. Salazar and Thompson have already elected free agency.
These types of moves are common at this time of year. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series, meaning players on the shelf need to be added back to the 40-man roster. Most teams have a few impending free agents, which can open a few spots, but there is often a squeeze. Prior to these moves, RosterResource projected the Nats to have 42 players for their 40 spots, so opening some breathing room was inevitable.
Thompson, 28 in February, is the most experienced of the bunch. He made his debut with the Padres back in 2021 and was traded to the Nationals at that year’s deadline as part of the Daniel Hudson deal. He has largely been an up-and-down reliever for the Nats since then, though he missed the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Overall, he has thrown 114 big league innings, allowing 5.21 earned runs per nine. His 50.6% ground ball rate is good but his 17.8% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate are both subpar.
The righty exhausted his final option season in 2025, meaning he would have been out of options in 2026. Given his uninspiring numbers, he would have had a hard time hanging onto a roster spot going forward. Since he has at least three years of big league service time, he had the right to elect free agency.
Salazar, 28 in May, came to the Nats via a waiver claim last summer. Between the Reds, Dodgers and Nationals, he has thrown 70 2/3 innings with a 5.99 ERA. Similar to Thompson, his 52.8% ground ball rate is strong but his 16% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate are subpar figures. Also like Thompson, he just exhausted his final option season and will be out of options going forward. He was outrighted by the Reds in 2023, which gave him the right to reject this outright assignment.
Ogasawara, now 28, just wrapped up his first season in North America. After years of pitching in Japan, he was posted for MLB clubs last winter. The Nats gave him a two-year, $3.5MM deal, plus a $700K posting fee to the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.
They didn’t get much from that $4.2MM investment. The lefty spent a decent chunk of the 2025 season in the minors. When in the majors, he posted a 6.98 ERA over 38 2/3 innings. His 17.3% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 36.4% ground ball rate were all subpar.
Players normally require three years of service time or a previous career outright to have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. A player coming over from Asia will sometimes have special language in their contract allowing them to circumvent standard MLB rules. Unless Ogasawara’s deal has such language, he’ll stick with the Nats as non-roster depth.
Stubbs, 29 in November, was added to the roster late in the year in emergency fashion. At the time, Keibert Ruiz and Drew Millas were both injured, leaving the Nats with Riley Adams as their only healthy catcher. Stubbs got into one game, going hitless in three at-bats. Shortly thereafter, the Nats signed Jorge Alfaro and bumped Stubbs back to the minors.
Going into the winter, Stubbs was the least experienced of five catchers on the 40-man roster. He also has a 35% strikeout rate in his minor league career. The Nats bumped him off the roster and no club put in a claim. Since he has spent most of the past seven years in the minors, he should qualify for minor league free agency five days after the conclusion of the World Series.
Photo courtesy of Daniel Kucin Jr., Imagn Images
Keith Beauregard Won’t Return To Tigers’ Coaching Staff
Hitting coach Keith Beauregard won’t be returning to the Tigers next year, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. His contract ran through 2025 and he has now decided to leave to pursue new opportunities in baseball.
For the past three seasons, the Tigers have had both Beauregard and Michael Brdar serving as hitting coaches. James Rowson worked alongside those two as an assistant in 2023, but he moved on and was replaced by Lance Zawadzki heading into 2024.
The Tigers were stuck in a rebuild at the time the Beauregard/Brdar duo was brought aboard. It’s always tough to parse how much credit goes to coaches or the players on the team, but for what it’s worth, Beauregard and Brdar oversaw the club as they emerged from a lengthy rebuild. The Tigers had a collective .236/.305/.382 line in 2023. That translated to a wRC+ of 89, putting them ahead of just four other clubs in the majors. The club jumped to a .234/.300/.385 line and 94 wRC+ last year, followed by a .247/.316/.413 line and 103 wRC+ in 2025.
Petzold suggests that Brdar and Zawadzki could stick around without Beauregard, but that doesn’t seem to be definite. Petzold notes that those two, like Beauregard, had contracts running through 2025. Even if they are staying, it’s unclear if the Tigers would hire someone to replace Beauregard or just let those two run the hitting department. There will be at least one other coaching change in Detroit, as it has been previously reported that first base coach Anthony Iapoce won’t be back next year.
There is going to be a high amount of turnover on coaching staffs this offseason. There are always a few moves and this winter could crank it up because of the unusually high number of managerial changes. Ten clubs are going to begin 2026 with a different manager than they had on Opening Day 2025. New managers often make a few coaching changes, either by bringing in a few of their own guys or just by taking things in new directions.
Beauregard, 42, could look to find a new gig as that game of musical chairs plays out. He started his coaching career in the college ranks before getting hired by the Dodgers to work in the minor leagues a few years ago. Getting hired by the Tigers three years ago was his first move to a big league staff.
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MLBTR Podcast: Bo Bichette’s Health, Kazuma Okamoto, And Dylan Cease’s Market
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Blue Jays getting Bo Bichette back for the World Series as he is on the cusp of free agency (2:45)
- Kazuma Okamoto to be posted for MLB clubs this offseason (10:45)
- The free agent market for Dylan Cease, who has interest from the Cubs (20:10)
- The Orioles hiring Craig Albernaz and the Angels hiring Kurt Suzuki for their managerial vacancies (34:45)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- If the Blue Jays were to extend Addison Barger, would the Lawrence Butler deal be a good comp? (40:35)
- If a veteran signs a minor league deal, are they eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft? (44:50)
- Will the Red Sox trade Jarren Duran? (46:25)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Phillies’ Outfield, Tarik Skubal, And Hiring College Coaches – listen here
- Murakami To Be Posted This Offseason, Managerial Vacancies, And More! – listen here
- Rockies’ Front Office Changes, Skip Schumaker, And ABS Talk – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images