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Craig Breslow Discusses Red Sox’ Struggles, Future Plans

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The Red Sox have been one of the more disappointing teams in baseball this year. While they’re shielded from consideration for the most disappointing club in MLB thanks to their division rivals in Baltimore, Boston entered the season as a trendy pick to win the AL East but currently sit three games under .500, 3.5 games back of a Wild Card spot, and 8.5 games back of the Yankees for the division title. While the calendar has not yet flipped to June and there’s plenty of time for a club floating around .500 to turn things around, that didn’t stop chief baseball officer Craig Breslow from expressing urgency in his comments to reporters (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive) regarding the state of the team earlier today.

“The simple answer is it’s not good enough. It’s not the performance we expected in the offseason,” Breslow said, as relayed by Cotillo. “It’s too late in the season and I think the the evidence is too strong to just say, ‘We’re gonna be OK tomorrow when we wake up.’”

Those comments seem to indicate that changes are necessary in order for the Red Sox to reach their maximum potential, though Breslow did not announce any specific changes ahead of this afternoon’s game against Atlanta. Reporting has subsequently indicated that there will be a handful of roster moves ahead of tomorrow’s game, but one name that does not yet appear to be coming up to the majors is top prospect Roman Anthony. Widely viewed as the sport’s top prospect and boasting a .306/.435/.505 slash line for Triple-A Worcester, fans have grown impatient waiting for his highly-anticipated major league debut.

Breslow’s comments didn’t shut the door to the possibility of Anthony coming up in the near future but didn’t provide any new hints that his debut could be on the horizon, with Cotillo suggesting that Breslow simply repeated past comments about wanting to call Anthony up into a situation where he’ll be able to thrive. Aside from the possibility of a promotion for Anthony, Breslow was also asked about the job status of manager Alex Cora. Breslow stood by his manager, referencing his decision to offer Cora a three-year extension last summer.

“We obviously made a commitment to Alex,” Breslow said, as relayed by Cotillo. “We’re gonna see that through. Right now, it’s about making sure that we’re doing everything we can to enable the 26 guys on our roster to help us win as many games as possible.”

It would certainly be a shock to find out that Cora is on the hot seat after the club committed to more $7MM annually to him for the 2025-27 seasons, so it’s hardly a surprise that Breslow shut down the idea of parting ways with his manager. Even so, the fact that the possibility of a change in the dugout came up at all during the scrum highlights the sense of urgency surrounding the Red Sox, and Cotillo adds that Breslow did not fully rule out the possibility of changes to the coaching staff. Breslow emphasized that the club is prepared to “pull a string that that we think will impact our success on the field” should one arise, though he also made clear that he wouldn’t want any changes made to “paper over a more deeply rooted problem.”

One place where the Red Sox appear poised to make some substantial changes in the near future is first base. While Rafael Devers seemingly remains unlikely to move to the position anytime soon, Kristian Campbell has been doing drills at the position in recent weeks and is expected to make his first career start at the position tomorrow, as Cotillo noted yesterday. Romy Gonzalez is also expected back from the injured list in the relatively near future after serving as the club’s primary first baseman during the brief stretch between Casas’s injury and his own. It’s unclear what sort of timeshare will be had at first base once Gonzalez and Campbell join Abraham Toro and Nick Sogard as players capable of handling the position on the roster, but it seems safe to expect everyone from that group who remains on the roster to make at least occasional appearances at first for the time being.

Red Sox Notes: First Base, Devers, Yoshida

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The Red Sox lost first baseman Triston Casas to a season-ending knee injury earlier this week and quickly selected Abraham Toro’s contract to the big league roster. The switch-hitting Toro and righty-swinging Romy Gonzalez appear set to share time at the position for the time being, although the Casas injury immediately prompted speculation about a potential move to first base for Rafael Devers. Manager Alex Cora told the Red Sox beat last night that there’s been no discussion of a role change for the third baseman-turned-DH (link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic).

“We got these two guys (Gonzalez and Toro) here, Toro starting today,” Cora said prior to last night’s loss. “Romy has done an amazing job in the starts over there so we’ll keep going that way.”

Cora followed up today in an appearance on WEEI radio, repeating that Devers is a DH for the time being but taking a slightly softer stance on the possibility of an eventual position change (link via WEEI’s Tom Carroll).

“We asked him to do something in spring training that, as you guys know, he didn’t agree with in the beginning,” said Cora. “And then little by little, he has embraced it because he knows the quality of the player that we have at third base and where we’re at as a team. … I’m not saying we’ll never have that conversation [about moving to first base], but I think for now, where we’re at, I like Raffy as a DH.”

Within that WEEI appearance, Cora again praised the season that Gonzalez has put together thus far. There’s no denying that the 28-year-old has excelled in the early stages of the 2025 season. He’s hitting .327/.382/.449 in 55 trips to the plate, although that small-sample production is buoyed by a .421 average on balls in play. Gonzalez is averaging 94.1 mph off the bat and has seen 58% of his batted balls depart at 95 mph or more.

It’s a strong profile, but one that is preceded by minimal track record. Gonzalez is in his fifth major league season and entered 2025 as a .242/.271/.387 hitter. He’s always hit lefties well (.281/.329/.465), but right-handers have long been a problem. That hasn’t been the case this year, and Cora’s comments seem to suggest he’ll at least get some runway to prove he’s made some real gains.

Toro, also 28, has a similar track record to that of Gonzalez. He’s a career .220/.285/.352 hitter who’s now seeing action in his seventh MLB campaign. He’s bounced around the league more (Astros, Mariners, Brewers, A’s) and has a strong Triple-A track record but limited success in the majors. Cora noted that Toro “put [together] some good at-bats” in his Red Sox debut yesterday, when he went 1-for-4 with a single.

The combination of Gonzalez and Toro, whether in a traditional platoon or a more selective timeshare, doesn’t feel like a feasible long-term option, but it’s understandable to hear a team’s manager voice confidence in the options he presently has on the roster. That said, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow took a more open-minded stance to the team’s first base void, telling NESN’s Tom Caron prior to the game that the Sox “need to be willing to put all idea and options on the table” and “uncover every rock” to make the team as competitive as possible (hat tip to the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham).

The case for moving Devers to first base is one that we discussed on this morning’s MLBTR podcast episode. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes also touched on it in today’s mailbag. That switch would open DH at-bats for the return of Masataka Yoshida, or it could help facilitate a big league promotion for Roman Anthony, who is widely ranked as the game’s No. 1 overall prospect. Anthony could join Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu in cycling through the outfield and DH spots. He’s hitting .294/.410/.495 with five homers as a 20-year-old in Triple-A. Dating back to last year, Anthony has slashed .321/.440/.508 in 298 Triple-A plate appearances — all before even turning 21.

The 31-year-old Yoshida, meanwhile, has been out all season while recovering from October surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right (throwing) shoulder. Yoshida spoke with the Red Sox beat yesterday and said through an interpreter that hitting is “no problem” but that he’s still feeling discomfort when throwing (video link via NESN). He received a cortisone injection three days ago and will be shut down from throwing for at least another couple days while that takes effect. The Red Sox have no plans to activate Yoshida until he is able to play in the outfield, per Abraham.

Devers’ move from third base to DH was a major storyline in spring training and led to plenty of hand-wringing early in the season when he went through one of the worst stretches of his career at the plate. That panic looks silly in retrospect, as Devers struggled for all of one week and has hit .292/.404/.508 since the calendar flipped to April. His lack of experience at first base is an obvious consideration in any scenario, but the current tandem of Gonzalez and Toro have relatively limited experience there themselves: 319 innings for Gonzalez and 353 for Toro.

There’s no perfect solution. The Red Sox will likely be getting sub-par defense at first base whichever route they take. Playing Devers there could free up DH at-bats for Yoshida or open a clearer path to get Anthony to the majors. For the time being, they’re sticking with Devers at designated hitter and seeing what they have in Toro and Gonzalez.

Run production has been an issue over the past week as the Red Sox have dropped five of six games, and even looking at the past month (i.e. excluding Devers’ early slump) they’ve been a league-average offense on a rate basis and sit 15th in the majors in runs scored. If Boston’s rotation continues to struggle as it has over the past two weeks (24th in MLB with a 4.76 ERA), or if Gonzalez and Toro play closer to their career levels in the weeks ahead, one would imagine the Sox will more seriously consider changes to get more offensive firepower into the lineup.

Triston Casas Likely To Miss Entire 2025 Season Due To Knee Surgery

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The Red Sox announced this morning that they have placed first baseman Triston Casas on the 10-day injured list with a ruptured left patellar tendon. He suffered the injury during last night’s game. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow says that Casas will have surgery and they don’t expect him back this year, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

To replace Casas on the active roster, the team has selected Abraham Toro’s contract from Triple-A Worcester. Boston had an open spot on the 40-man, so no further corresponding transaction was necessary. In an additional roster move, the Red Sox reinstated Brennan Bernardino from the bereavement list and optioned Luis Guerrero to Triple-A.

The Casas news is awful but unsurprising. He suffered an obvious injury last night when he hit the first base bag awkwardly while trying to beat out a grounder. He was down on the ground in clear pain for a long time and eventually was taken off the field on a stretcher. It seemed likely that he would miss an extended period of time and that is now confirmed. He hasn’t yet been moved to the 60-day IL but that will happen whenever the Sox need a 40-man spot.

The Sox will have to figure out what to do about replacing Casas at first base. Breslow says that all options are on the table and he didn’t rule out Rafael Devers taking over, though outfield prospect Roman Anthony or infield prospect Marcelo Mayer are unlikely to be moved to first.

Devers is currently the full-time designated hitter after getting bumped off third base by Alex Bregman. Moving him into first base and opening the DH spot would help the club with some roster crunches elsewhere.

Anthony and Mayer are two of the best prospects in baseball, but both are currently in Triple-A and somewhat blocked on the big league roster. The Sox currently have an outfield mix consisting of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela and Rob Refsnyder. The infield has Bregman, Trevor Story and Kristian Campbell at third base, shortstop and second base respectively. Outfielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida could get into the mix as well, though he has been battling ongoing shoulder problems and his return timeline is unclear.

With Devers in the DH spot, it’s a bit of a crowded picture. If he were to take over at first base, that would open things up and allow various players to rotate through the DH spot. Devers has no professional experience at first but plenty of subpar third basemen have made the move across the diamond over the years. While Breslow seemed to leave the door open to the idea, manager Alex Cora downplayed the possibility. “From my end, right now, no…. he’s my DH,” Cora said, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe.

For now, it seems like utility infielder Romy González will be the first attempt. Cora tells Speier that this is an opportunity for González “to go out and perform.” He is the only Boston player apart from Casas to have played first base this year. He’s having a decent season so far, with a .279/.340/.419 batting line and 113 wRC+. However, that comes with no home runs and a .364 batting average on balls in play. In his 502 career plate appearances, he has a .246/.277/.390 line and 81 wRC+.

That career production would be less than ideal production from first base, which is generally a bat-first position, but the Sox will give it a try for now. Perhaps they will explore some external options in the coming weeks, looking to make a trade or grab another player off waivers. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe says that Breslow is indeed looking at the trade market.

González had previously been in a multi-positional role, having also played some second and third base this year. In his career, he has played shortstop and the outfield as well. With him set to become the club’s regular first baseman for now, Toro has been added to add some defensive versatility to the bench.

Toro, 28, signed a minor league deal with the Sox in the offseason. He has been performing well in Triple-A so far this year, with a .310/.403/.480 line, though a .392 BABIP is doing him some favors. In his big league career, he has played the three non-shortstop infield positions and the outfield corners. He has always hit well in Triple-A but has a .220/.285/.353 line and 82 wRC+ in 1,298 big league plate appearances.

Photo courtesy of Eric Canha, Imagn Images

Red Sox Notes: Wong, Narvaez, Yoshida, Crawford, Anthony

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Connor Wong started a Triple-A rehab assignment today, as the catcher appears to be nearing a return from the left pinkie finger fracture that sent him to the 10-day injured list back on April 8.  Speaking with MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith (multiple links) and other reporters today, Red Sox manager Alex Cora indicated the team will “play it day by day and we don’t have to rush” Wong, as the backstop will need more than one rehab appearance anyway.

Wong seemingly solidified his place as Boston’s first-choice catcher by hitting .280/.333/.425 with 13 home runs over 487 plate appearances last season.  He was ice-cold at the plate over his first 26 PA of 2025, so this early injury could serve as something of a fresh start for Wong’s season.

Carlos Narvaez has taken the bulk of the catching duties in Wong’s absence, and he has been impressive enough defensively that Cora said Narvaez will continue to get a good share of playing time even when Wong is back on the field.  “I’m not saying we split up the week but [Narvaez] will play a lot,” Cora said.

Known as a defensive specialist even during his time in the minors, Narvaez has lived up to that rep over his brief MLB career.  He has hit only .205/.279/.333 in 86 PA (15 with the Yankees in 2024, 71 with the Red Sox this year), but Narvaez has been outstanding in all facets of catcher-related glovework except for his ability to throw out baserunners.  With the Sox committing to Narvaez and Blake Sabol also on the roster as the current backup, Yasmani Grandal could trigger the May 1 opt-out clause in his minor league contract given the rather crowded path to big-league playing time once Wong is back.

Cora provided updates on some other injured Sox players, including something of a non-update on Masataka Yoshida.  The outfielder/DH began the season on the 10-day IL as he continued his recovery from October shoulder surgery, but though we’re now a month into the 2025 campaign, it doesn’t appear Yoshida is expected back any time in the near future.  Yoshida is still “just taking at-bats down there [at Boston’s Spring Training complex] and his throwing program,” Cora said.

Yoshida was healthy enough to hit during Spring Training but hasn’t been able to play the field, as he continues to build up his arm strength.  Given the amount of time Yoshida has already missed, it stands to reason that a shift to the 60-day IL might come sooner rather than later.  Such a roster move would sideline Yoshida until late May at the earliest, though that might not be an issue given Yoshida’s unsettled timeline.

Kutter Crawford has also yet to play in 2025, but the right-hander continues to make progress in his recovery from right patellar soreness.  Cora said that Crawford is set to throw a bullpen session at Boston’s extended spring camp, and Crawford will then advance to throwing a live batting-practice session later this week.  While Crawford looks to be on track, he might also be a candidate for a 60-day IL move if the Red Sox need the roster space, as the righty will still need to make multiple rehab starts to make up for all of the time he missed during the spring.

Star prospect Roman Anthony had an injury scare on Friday when the outfielder left a Triple-A game early after fouling a ball off his left foot.  X-rays were negative on Anthony’s foot, as Red Sox senior director of player development Brian Abraham said during an appearance on the Baseball Isn’t Boring radio show (hat tip to Rob Bradford), so it appears as though a worst-case scenario has been avoided.

Anthony is day-to-day for now, though all eyes will continue to monitor his status both in the short term and in regards to how any sort of injury might impact his inevitable MLB debut.  Between last season and this season, Anthony has a scorching .332/.459/.545 slash line over 266 Triple-A plate appearances, making it only a matter of time before arguably the sport’s best prospect arrives in Boston.  Where exactly Anthony would fit into a crowded Red Sox outfield has been a hot topic, though needless to say, Anthony might simply force the issue if his initial big-league production is anything close to his Triple-A work.

Poll: Which Top Prospect Will Arrive In Boston Next?

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After an offseason that saw the Red Sox get aggressive in improving the big league club by adding Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Alex Bregman, the club showed a different kind of aggressiveness when they included top infield prospect Kristian Campbell on their Opening Day roster. That move has certainly paid off for them so far; not only has Campbell signed on with the club long-term, but he’s hitting an excellent .318/.426/.545 across his first 13 games in the major leagues while serving as the club’s regular second baseman and occasionally making appearances in the outfield.

Campbell wasn’t the only top prospect the Red Sox had knocking on the door to the majors this spring, however. Outfielder Roman Anthony and infielder Marcelo Mayer are rated just as highly as Campbell, with all three being consensus top-15 prospects across the entire sport. While a vacancy at second base and Campbell’s impressive work flying through the minor leagues last year were enough to get him called up to the majors first among the trio, it should surprise no one if all three are in the majors in relatively short order. With that being said, it remains unclear which of Anthony and Mayer are most likely to make it to the majors next.

Anthony, 21 next month, has a strong case to come up and contribute soon. As a consensus top-two prospect in the sport who has been ranked number one overall by multiple major publications, Anthony’s ceiling is immense. Last year, he slashed .291/.396/.498 between the Double- and Triple-A levels, including a phenomenal .344/.463/.519 slash line when looking just at his 35 games (164 plate appearances) at the highest level of the minor leagues. That hot finish at Triple-A created plenty of buzz about the possibility of Anthony breaking camp with the Red Sox over the offseason, but Anthony’s .206/.391/.324 slash line in Spring Training this year wasn’t enough to convince Boston brass that their top prospect was ready for the next step.

His early season performance at Triple-A hasn’t exactly demanded consideration for a promotion, either. Through ten games, Anthony is hitting .177/.364/.412 in his return to the club’s Worcester affiliate. While that’s a sample of just 44 plate appearances, Anthony’s 31.8% strikeout rate so far this year at the very least suggests he’s running a bit cold right now, though that he’s been able to walk at a 22.7% clip and bash a pair of homers while doing so is certainly impressive. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo recently suggested that the Red Sox are currently hoping to see more production from Anthony against left-handed pitchers before he makes it to the big leagues. That’s on top of a need for Anthony to work on his defense, which will be challenged as he appears likely to move from center field to left upon being called up to the majors.

That to-do list and Anthony’s middling play early in the season could open the door for Mayer to beat him to the majors. The 22-year-old provided a strong challenge to Campbell for the second base job during Spring Training as he hit .333/.455/.528 during camp, though Mayer’s lack of experience above the Double-A level always made him a less likely option to get the job. Mayer’s first taste of Triple-A has seen him cool off significant relative to his spring performance, as he’s hit just .243/.282/.405 with a 28.2% strikeout rate through nine games at the level. He’ll surely need to start hitting better than that with Worcester before he gets called up to the majors, although the club hasn’t laid out any more specific issues that Mayer needs to address before he can be called up like they have with Anthony.

The fact that the club has specific areas they’d like to see Anthony grow before he reaches the majors, in conjunction with Mayer finishing as arguably the runner up behind Campbell for the club’s starting second base job, would seem to suggest that Mayer is closer to being promoted than Anthony is. However, Anthony has one major leg up in this conversation relative to Mayer: the construction of Boston’s lineup. With Campbell serving as the club’s regular second baseman, there is no longer an obvious spot on the infield which Mayer can take up. Campbell, Triston Casas, Alex Bregman, and Trevor Story are all slated for regular at-bats this year, and even the DH role is filled by Rafael Devers on a daily basis.

Either an injury somewhere on the infield, a move to the outfield for Campbell, or a shocking move to bench Story would likely be necessary for Mayer to muscle his way into the lineup at this point. The same cannot be said of Anthony, who has a fairly straightforward path to playing time in the club’s outfield mix. Ceddanne Rafaela has served as the club’s usual center fielder entering the 2025 campaign, but he’s hit just .243/.275/.378 in the majors to this point in his career, including a paltry .205/.279/.205 line so far this year. While he’s a brilliant defender in center field, that’s not the type of production that should keep a team from promoting the sport’s top prospect to the majors once he’s ready. Rafaela, who has the ability to play both the infield and the outfield, could move to a utility role on the bench similar to the one Enrique Hernandez once filled once Anthony is ready to go. Anthony could either plug in directly for Rafaela in center field, or he could be tasked with manning left field while Jarren Duran slides over to center.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out? Will Anthony make it to the majors first, off the back of his status as the sport’s #1 prospect and a potential opening in the outfield? Or will the club’s desire to see Anthony hit more against southpaws in the minors and Mayer’s strong work in Spring Training be enough to get him to the majors first? Have your say in the poll below:

Wilyer Abreu May Not Be Ready For Opening Day

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Red Sox right fielder Wilyer Abreu has yet to appear in a spring game or even begin full baseball activities due to a bout with a gastrointestinal virus. Exact details on the illness are a bit murky. MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith wrote on Feb. 28 that Abreu looked noticeably thinner in camp. Abreu acknowledged to Smith that the virus has indeed caused him to lose “a little bit of weight” but suggested he thinks that could actually prove beneficial, as he feels more “in form” than he was last year.

While Abreu has taken an optimistic tone about his chances of being ready for Opening Day, The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey cast some doubt on that possibility this morning, reporting that Abreu has only been tracking pitches thus far and yet to even swing a bat. Manager Alex Cora suggested that Abreu is a ways behind schedule. There’s no definitive declaration that Abreu won’t be in the lineup versus the Rangers on March 27, but that first game is only 20 days out.

Abreu, 25, came to the Red Sox in the 2022 deadline deal that sent catcher Christian Vazquez to Houston. He made his MLB debut in 2023 and broke out with a terrific rookie showing in 2024, his first full season in the majors. Last year saw Abreu produce a solid .253/.322/.459 batting line with 15 homers, 33 doubles, a pair of triples and an 8-for-11 performance in stolen bases over the life of 132 games/447 plate appearances. He floundered in 67 plate appearances versus lefties but thrived against right-handed pitching and, above all else, proved himself one of the best defensive players in baseball — regardless of position.

By measure of Statcast, Abreu was nine runs better than average in right field. Sports Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved metric pegged him at a massive +17. Both outstanding marks came in less than a full season’s worth of innings at the position (921). No right fielder in MLB provided more total value, per Statcast or DRS. (Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio and Jonny DeLuca were better on a rate basis but in smaller samples of innings.)

Unsurprisingly, Abreu won the first of what will likely be multiple Gold Glove Awards in his career. He also finished sixth in AL Rookie of the Year voting and firmly entrenched himself in Boston’s outfield moving forward. It’s a crowded mix with everyone healthy, though if Abreu’s not ready for the season opener, that could lend some short-term clarity to what’s right now something of a logjam.

With a normal spring for Abreu, the expectation would’ve been for him to slot into right field, with 2024 breakout MVP candidate Jarren Duran in left and fellow defensive standout Ceddanne Rafaela in center. The Red Sox, of course, have two of the most electric and also near-MLB-ready prospects in the sport: Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony. Many outlets regard the latter as the top position-playing prospect in the game. Campbell has played more second base than outfield and is also in the mix at that position, though Boston’s signing of Alex Bregman could push Campbell into more of an outfield role — depending where he ultimately lines up on the diamond.

Even if Abreu isn’t ready for Opening Day, it’s not necessarily a lock that Campbell or Anthony would get the call in the outfield. For starters, neither is on the 40-man roster yet. Carrying either would require a corresponding 40-man move. More importantly, if Abreu is facing a short-term absence, the Sox may not want to bring up such a touted prospect for what amounts to a small handful of games. The 20-year-old Anthony only has 35 Triple-A games under his belt, after all, while the 22-year-old Campbell has just 19. Utilityman Rob Refsnyder and designated hitter Masataka Yoshida could certainly step into the outfield to help fill any short-term absences. Refsnyder would likely see plenty of outfield work as a platoon partner for Abreu anyhow.

Red Sox Interested In Exploring Long-Term Extensions With Top Prospects

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At yesterday’s Fenway Fest fan event, Red Sox top prospects Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell indicated that they have not heard from the club’s brass regarding the possibility of signing long-term extensions in Boston to this point. Today, a report from Alex Speier of the Boston Globe relays that while the Red Sox have not yet reached out to begin extension discussions, the team is nonetheless interested in exploring the possibility with its top prospects.

Namely, Speier lists Anthony, Campbell, and top infield prospect Marcelo Mayer all as youngsters the club is hoping to talk extension with. Campbell, in particular, has made clear that he would be interested in negotiating if the Red Sox approach him. Speier notes that the club’s 2023 fourth-rounder told reporters last season that he would be “100 percent” open to a long-term deal with Boston and also reports that Anthony is seen as being willing to “at least listen” if the Red Sox were to approach him about signing a long-term extension.

All three youngsters come with significant prospect pedigree. According to Baseball America, Anthony is the top prospect in all of baseball, while Mayer sits just behind him at #10 and Campbell clocks in at #24. MLB Pipeline, meanwhile, has all three youngsters within the top ten: Anthony is ranked #3 overall behind Dylan Crews of the Nationals and Walker Jenkins of the Twins, while Mayer comes in at #7 and Campbell rounds out the trio at #10. The trio’s performance on the field has generally backed up those rankings, as well. Campbell flew through three levels of the minors in 2024, slashing .330/.439/.558 along the way, while Anthony hit .291/.396/.498 at the Double- and Triple-A levels last year. Mayer was limited to just 77 games at Double-A due to injuries last year but nonetheless hit a solid .307/.370/.480 at the level in his age-21 season.

Pre-debut extensions for players with that level of prospect pedigree are somewhat rare but one did occur last winter between the Brewers and outfielder Jackson Chourio, who had been ranked as the #2 prospect in baseball by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline at the time of the deal. Chourio wound up signing an eight-year extension last offseason that guaranteed him $82MM with club options and incentives that could allow the deal to max out at $142.5MM over ten years. Chourio’s extension seems like it would be a sensible benchmark for Anthony should he wind up signing a deal before making his big league debut, given their similar prospect rankings and Anthony’s status as a similar five-tool outfielder who projects to land in a corner at the big league level.

Campbell and Mayer, on the other hand, may not be in line for paydays at quite that level. Tigers infielder Colt Keith landed at the other end of the pre-arbitration extension spectrum when he signed a six-year deal last winter. That contract guarantees Keith just $28.6425MM and maxes out at $82MM over nine years if the Tigers pick up a trio of club options they hold on the youngster’s services. Prior to the 2024 season, Keith was ranked as a consensus top-30 prospect in the game but did not crack the top 20 with any major service. That limits Keith’s usefulness as a point of comparison for Campbell and Mayer, given both are rated as top-10 prospects by at least one major prospect outlet.

Keith also falls lower on the defensive spectrum than Campbell and especially Mayer. He was limited to second and third base throughout his time in the minor leagues while both Red Sox infielders have spent much of their time in the minors at shortstop. While Campbell has mixed in work at second base and in the outfield and manager Alex Cora suggested to reporters (including Christopher Smith of MassLive) yesterday that the club plans to have Mayer start playing second and third base in addition to shortstop this year, the ability to play shortstop along with stronger prospect pedigree seems likely to allow both Red Sox infielders to set their asking prices meaningfully higher than Keith’s deal.

Of course, it’s also possible the Red Sox could wait to work out an extension with one or more of the trio until they’ve already debuted in the majors. Speier notes that the club extended utility man Ceddanne Rafaela back in April on an eight-year, $50MM deal just over 100 plate appearances into his big league career. That deal can max out at $62MM over nine years, but it’s on the low end of deals signed at that stage in a player’s career in recent years; only Aaron Ashby’s $20.5MM extension with the Brewers guaranteeing less in the past half decade. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker demonstrates how quickly a player’s asking price can skyrocket once they’ve accrued big league service time. Julio Rodriguez’s $210MM guarantee with the Mariners is the most lucrative deal of the bunch, though Wander Franco, Corbin Carroll, and Ronald Acuña Jr. are among the other extensions signed with less than a year of big league service time that eclipsed the $82MM guarantee Chourio secured from the Brewers last offseason.

Given how quickly the price of an extension can rapidly escalate once a young star begins to establish themselves at the big league level, it’s easy to imagine the Red Sox being particularly motivated to see if a deal between the sides can be reached in the coming months. With that being said, the club has shown a willingness to extend players later into their career as well. Boston brass are already known to have begun discussions with left-hander Garrett Crochet about a possible extension with two years left before free agency, and the club has previously extended Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers on nine-figure deals ahead of their final seasons before free agency.

Garrett Crochet Discusses Extension Talks With Red Sox

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Newly-acquired Red Sox lefty Garrett Crochet was in attendance for today’s Fenway Fest event in Boston, and he spoke to reporters (include Chris Cotillo of MassLive) about the state of extension talks between Red Sox brass and Crochet’s own camp. The comments come on the heels of reporting earlier this week that suggested the sides had begun preliminary discussions about a longer-term deal.

“There have been conversations with my agent and the front office, just kind of getting a feel for one another,” Crochet said, as relayed by Cotillo. “Staying in Boston long-term is something that has a lot of merit in my mind and something I think would be awesome. In the meantime, I’m just focusing on spring and getting ready for the upcoming season, trying to stay focused one day at a time. When something’s presented, then we’ll attack it.”

Crochet, 25, enjoyed a breakout season with the White Sox last year as he moved from a relief role into the rotation. He made the most of the opportunity, pitching to a solid 3.58 ERA in 146 innings of work with a 2.69 FIP and an eye-popping 35.1% strikeout rate. That dominant performance on a team that broke the all-time MLB loss record made a trade nearly inevitable, and Boston pounced on the opportunity during the Winter Meetings last month and shipped a package headlined by catching prospect Kyle Teel and outfield prospect Braden Montgomery to Chicago in exchange for Crochet’s services.

The southpaw immediately adds a clear #1 starter to the front of the Red Sox rotation, but with a young core of talent reaching the major leagues and knocking on the door at Triple-A, locking up Crochet beyond his remaining two years of control would make plenty of sense for Boston. Crochet is clearly open to such an arrangement, and his comments today only served to confirm the lefty’s interest in locking in a longer-term guarantee. It’s hardly a surprise that Crochet would be open to listening on extension talks. He’s suffered through a number of injury-marred seasons already in his career, and that elevated injury risk surely makes a long-term guarantee more attractive.

To that end, he made clear prior to the trade deadline last summer that if he was going to go over his established innings limit to pitch in the 2024 postseason after a midseason trade, he would want to get an extension worked out prior to a deal coming together. Of course, no deal was ultimately made and now Crochet is in Boston. It’s unclear exactly what sort of deal either Crochet or the Red Sox are angling for at this point, though one noteworthy reference point is a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan over the summer that suggested Crochet was seeking a nine-figure deal at the time.

Crochet wasn’t the only Red Sox player to discuss the state of extension talks today, as top prospects Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell both spoke to WEEI today and revealed that neither has been approached by the Red Sox about the possibility of a pre-debut extension. That’s not necessarily a major shock, given that pre-debut extensions are generally quite rare. They’ve become more common in recent years, however, as evidenced by both Jackson Chourio of the Brewers and Colt Keith of the Tigers signing deals of that sort last offseason alone.

The Red Sox would surely love to lock up either Anthony or Campbell beyond their current windows of control. Anthony is rated by Baseball America as the #1 prospect in all of baseball, while Campbell isn’t ranked too far behind at #24. Both figure to make their big league debuts in 2025, though the exact timing of those debuts remains up in the air. There’s been some speculation that Campbell, in particular, could be in the conversation for an Opening Day roster spot should he manage to win the second base job away from David Hamilton and Vaughn Grissom in Spring Training this spring, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if both youngsters are in the majors by the time the first half of the 2025 season comes to a close.

While there’s certainly value from a player’s perspective in locking in a major payday before they so much as take their first big league at-bat, they also typically come with much lower price tags relative to extensions signed as soon as during a player’s pre-arb years as a big leaguer. Chourio’s extension with the Brewers guaranteed him a record-setting $82MM last winter, but that pales in comparison to the nine-figure deals secured by players like Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. once they had already established themselves as star-caliber big leaguers. That said, pre-debut extensions aren’t without risk for the team either; even elite prospects can go on to struggle in the majors, with Jon Singleton of the Astros and Scott Kingery of the Phillies standing out as examples of players who signed pre-debut extensions and then went on to provide their clubs with little value over the life of those deals.

Given that, it’s perhaps not surprising for the sides to have not yet engaged in extension talks. Anthony and Campbell may well both prefer to bet on themselves early in their careers as they eye either a more lucrative extension down the line or free agency once their time under team control comes to a close. On the other hand, the Red Sox may prefer to see how Anthony, Campbell, and other top prospects like Marcelo Mayer develop before making extension offers as they have over the years with players like Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock, Rafael Devers, and Xander Bogaerts.

Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

Latest On Red Sox Pitching, Trade Discussions

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Craig Breslow’s first offseason as Boston’s chief baseball officer has been marked by one notable free agent signing (Lucas Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM deal) and several significant trades, with the likes of Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom joining the roster and Chris Sale, Alex Verdugo, and Luis Urias all leaving Fenway Park.  With more work on the pitching staff still to be done, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that the Red Sox could again turn to the trade market, though with some limitations on the scope of their talks.

Rather than pursue pitchers who are just under team control through the 2024 season (i.e. Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber), Speier reports that the Sox are trying to acquire pitchers who have multiple years of control.  Naturally, such hurler come at a high asking price in trade talks, yet Boston is unsurprisingly wary about parting ways with its top prospects.  It doesn’t appear that any of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, or Kyle Teel are available in talks, though it isn’t clear if the Red Sox might be more open to dealing from the next tier down on their list of minor leaguers.  Speier cites outfielder Miguel Bleis and second baseman Nick Yorke as among the several other Sox prospects who have drawn trade interest from rival clubs.

Between these relatively lesser prospects and other potential younger trade chips on the big league roster, the Red Sox might be able to swing some kind of deal for a more proven upgrade, whether in the rotation or perhaps even somewhere else on the roster.  However, as Speier writes, “there’s little sense they’ll push in the chips to land an established top-of-the-rotation starter either via trade or free agency.  Further additions appear more likely in the middle or back of the rotation to improve depth and reliability.”

This isn’t markedly different from past reports about Boston’s offseason plans, though the Sox were at least somewhat engaged on enough big-ticket names (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell) to create the impression that the team was willing to splurge in the right circumstance.  Even with Montgomery and Snell still unsigned, it doesn’t look like the Red Sox will emerge as a real suitor unless either starter drops his asking price — though in that situation, one would imagine a lot of other clubs might also step up their pursuits.

One of the lingering questions of Boston’s offseason is how much Breslow has been authorized to spend, considering that some level of payroll limitation appears to be in place.  The Sox currently have approximately $177.5MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, so they’re pretty close to matching their $181.2MM Opening Day payroll from 2023.  That figure from last year ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending.

This relative hesitation towards larger spending has manifested itself not only in the lack of movement on Montgomery or Snell, but also in Boston’s pursuit of Shota Imanaga.  Granted, it appears as though the league as a whole perhaps had some concerns over Imanaga’s viability as a Major League starter, given that his four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs fell below industry expectations.  However, Imanaga’s contract could become a five-year, $80MM pact if the Cubs exercise a club option for 2028, and they’ll have to make that decision following the 2025 season and 2026 seasons or else Imanaga can trigger an opt-out clause.

The Red Sox also had interest in a more creative deal for Imanaga, but Speier reports that their offer included only two guaranteed years “with the potential for two additional vesting years.”  Imanaga will earn $23MM ($22MM in salary and a $1MM signing bonus) over his first two seasons in with the Cubs and Speier writes that Boston’s offer paid him more than that $23MM amount through 2025, though it isn’t surprising to see why Imanaga decided to take the Cubs’ offer.

There’s still plenty of offseason left for Breslow to make more moves, and an argument could be that made that the Red Sox roster is already looking better than it did in 2023.  That said, simply being better doesn’t necessarily translate to a team capable of contending for a championship or even a playoff berth, and patience is running thin amongst the fanbase after consecutive last-place finishes in the AL East.

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