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Drew Waters

Braves Select Drew Waters, Three Others

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The Braves announced that they’ve added four prospects — outfielder Drew Waters and right-handed pitchers Freddy Tarnok, Brooks Wilson and William Woods — to their 40-man roster. All four players would have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not added to Atlanta’s roster before tomorrow evening’s deadline. The club’s 40-man is now full.

Waters is the highest-profile of the bunch. A second-round pick in 2017, the switch-hitting outfielder emerged as one of the sport’s most promising prospects early in his career. Waters hit very well in the low minors, flashing a strong combination of bat-to-ball skills, athleticism and defensive aptitude in center field. By 2019, he’d made it onto Baseball America’s top 100 overall prospects list. He remained one of the game’s top farmhands over the next few years, topping out at #32 entering this past season.

The 2021 campaign was something of a struggle, though, as the 22-year-old spent the entire year with Triple-A Gwinnett. He hit .240/.329/.381 with 11 homers over 459 plate appearances, striking out at an alarming 30.9% clip. As he’s climbed the minor league ladder, evaluators have increasingly raised questions about his aggressive approach at the plate. Waters’ issues against high minors pitching have dinged his stock a bit, but he still checked as the #6 farmhand in the system this offseason and was always a lock to be protected given his pre-2021 pedigree. Depending on how the Braves address their uncertain outfield mix this winter, Waters could be a big league option fairly early in 2022.

Tarnok, Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2017, has slowly progressed up the minor league ladder. The 22-year-old (23 next week) reached Double-A this season, where he worked to a 2.60 ERA over 45 innings with a fantastic 33.7% strikeout percentage and a manageable 8.3% walk rate. Keith Law of the Athletic wrote in July that Tarnok could be an above-average starter at his peak, praising his 93-96 MPH fastball, athleticism and curveball feel. He’s yet to reach Triple-A, though, so it seems likely the Braves will want Tarnok to get a bit more seasoning in the minors before bringing him up for his big league debut.

Wilson, 25, was a seventh-round pick out of Stetson University in 2018. He’s never appeared on an organizational ranking at either FanGraphs or Baseball America, but he had a very strong season between Double-A Mississippi and Gwinnett in 2021. Over 50 innings of relief, Wilson worked to a combined 2.34 ERA with an astronomical 41.4% strikeout rate and a 9.4% walk percentage. He could be an option for the MLB bullpen as soon as next season.

Woods, 22, was a 23rd-rounder in that 2018 draft out of a Tennessee junior college. Both BA and FanGraphs ranked him the #21 prospect in the Atlanta system entering 2021, praising his mid-high 90’s fastball and promising slider. Both outlets expressed reservations about his control but suggested his velocity could at least make him an effective option out of the bullpen. Injuries limited him to just four appearances at High-A Rome this year.

Rangers Had High Price On Lynn; Deals With Dodgers, Braves Didn’t Get Close

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Despite vast interest from around the majors, the Rangers decided to retain right-hander Lance Lynn through at least the rest of the season. The Braves were among the teams in on Lynn, but the Rangers understandably placed a high asking price on the AL Cy Young contender and his year-plus of affordable control. Texas wanted either Cristian Pache or Drew Waters from Atlanta as the headliner in a package for Lynn, according to David O’Brien of The Athletic, though the Braves clearly were unwilling to part with either of the highly touted outfield prospects.

Both Pache and Waters are 21-year-old outfielders who rank among the game’s top 50 prospects, and it stands to reason that the Rangers would’ve pushed for additional pieces to be added. Had either Pache or Waters changed hands in a deal with Texas or another club, they’d have been the highest-ranked prospect dealt in a deadline season that was punctuated more by players to be named later and mid-tier prospects.

The Braves and the Dodgers were known to be in on Lynn, with L.A. reportedly making a late push but ultimately failing to close a deal. Specific names that were discussed haven’t come to light, but Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels made clear that sufficient value wasn’t presented.

“I would not have been proud of some of those deals if we made them,” Daniels told reporters following the deadline (link via Sam Blum of the Dallas Morning News). “I don’t think our fans would have been happy about it, either.”

All of the top baseball operations execs involved in Lynn discussions has made similar statements in the hours and days since the deadline passed. Via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman acknowledged his efforts to add an “impactful” starter who could’ve lined up behind Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw in the postseason rotation. Lynn fits that description following his past season-plus with the Rangers, but Friedman characterized those as talks that never “got all that close.”

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, meanwhile said in a recent radio appearance on 92.9 The Game that his club set a threshold they weren’t willing to cross — much as they do with regard to free-agent negotiations. “The moves that we could’ve made, for us, would not have been good deals,” Anthopoulos said. “…It just came down to — and it’s no knock on anybody — we made the decision that the price for us, we didn’t think that made sense.”

Daniels and the Rangers will have another opportunity to shop Lynn this winter, and while they’re now only marketing one season of Lynn (and one postseason push involving him), interest should still be high as long as Lynn remains healthy. If the 2021 season sees a return to a standard 10-team postseason field, clubs may be more motivated to add impact pieces like Lynn, knowing that multiple postseason spots in each league have been eliminated. That doesn’t guarantee a huge return for the Rangers, of course, but a full season of a high-end starter on a below-market contract ($8MM in 2021) and the right to make him a qualifying offer after the season should still be able to fetch a respectable haul.

Latest On Mike Clevinger

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AUG. 31: The Blue Jays “don’t seem to be heavily involved on Clevinger,” according to Heyman, who lists the Padres, Braves and perhaps the White Sox as teams that appear to be in the mix.

AUG. 30, 9:48PM: The Blue Jays also have interest in Clevinger, Heyman tweets, but it isn’t known if Toronto is the “mystery team.”

8:07PM: Speculation continues to swirl about a possible Mike Clevinger trade, with multiple reports surfacing earlier tonight that the Padres had seemingly moved into the driver’s seat for the Indians righty.  The most recent word, however, is that other teams may have pulled ahead of San Diego, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links) reports that the Tribe “have requested players’ physicals from at least two teams” but haven’t asked the Padres to submit such information. 

A mystery team has made a better offer for Clevinger than the Padres, Nightengale writes.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter links) reported earlier tonight that the Braves were still in the Clevinger sweepstakes even though the Padres were the “frontrunners” at the time, and two rival executives told Feinsand that Atlanta could very well be the team “making an aggressive play” to now top San Diego’s offer.  Top outfield prospect Drew Waters was reportedly part of the Indians’ trade ask from the Braves, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter).

The Padres don’t seem to be willing to move either Trent Grisham or Jake Cronenworth, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links), which could be a roadblock in a potential Clevinger trade.  Also from Heyman, the Yankees don’t appear to be the mystery team in the Clevinger hunt, as there is “no belief anything’s close” between New York and Cleveland.

The White Sox and Dodgers were also rumored to be interested in Clevinger earlier today, and with this much buzz around the right-hander, one wonders how close Cleveland might get to someone meeting its reportedly “ridiculous” asking price in any Clevinger trade.

Anthopoulos On Donaldson, Riley, Braves Prospects

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Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos covered a host of topics of interest in a chat with David O’Brien of The Athletic (subscription link). Of particular hot stove relevance was his discussion of third baseman Josh Donaldson.

While he declined to dish on the team’s interest in hammering out a new deal with Donaldson, who’s a pending free agent, Anthopoulos left clear that the door is open to a return. That’s true even with Austin Riley representing a big-league option at the hot corner. Riley earned praise from the GM for his outfield glovework. Offensively, we’ve seen cause for both promise and concern. Anthopoulos says he’ll “be curious” to see how Riley hits after returning from the injured list, while adding that “long term we still feel the exact same about him.”

Per Anthopoulos:

“If our best team is with Austin Riley in the outfield and Josh Donaldson at third base, and that makes sense, we’ll do that. … There’s clearly room for both guys; we can see a team with both guys. Problem is, one guy’s a free agent. And I expect the market for him to be strong because of the year that he’s had and what he’s done.”

But what of the final months before Donaldson formally returns to the open market? Is there any possibility of a late-season extension? Addressing the topic generally, Anthopoulos said “there might be a scenario” where the club engages in contract talks during a season. But that’s not idea, he indicated. Ultimately, there’s really no reason to believe Donaldson won’t become a free agent. After all, that was the point of his decision to take a one-year deal in the first place.

There’s some clear spillover to the Atlanta outfield situation. There’ll be room to add there, with Nick Markakis headed for free agency. That’s all the more true if Riley ends up sliding over to third base. It’s an interesting situation for the Braves, who have two highly regarded young outfielders knocking on the door in Cristian Pache and Drew Waters.

Anthopoulos made clear he’s not planning to head into Spring Training next year with a plan to turn over jobs to the young and unproven duo of Pache and Waters. “We love those guys; we think they’re going to be really good players,” Anthopoulos explains. “We just have no idea when. And you can’t go into a season counting on those guys.”

But that doesn’t answer the question of just how aggressive the Braves will be in pursuing outfield help. Riley’s flexibility gives the team options. Ender Inciarte remains a notable part of the picture. Perhaps Markakis will again be a candidate to return. There’s an argument to be made that the Braves ought to pursue a big bat to put alongside superstar Ronald Acuna Jr.

It’s equally arguable that a placeholding/platoon approach would be more sensible, with resources being utilized instead in other areas. In that case, the concept would be to hold down the fort while Pache and Waters make their case for a promotion. As Anthopoulos puts it, the team can and will “find a way to get them up” once the prospects force the situation.

Latest On Braves’ Trade Targets

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Reports from earlier this month suggested that the Braves hadn’t had any talks with the Blue Jays about Marcus Stroman, and ten days later, this is still the case, according to David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link).  It could be that the Braves are more focused on another Toronto pitcher in closer Ken Giles, as O’Brien writes that “I get [the] impression Giles could be a target” for Atlanta.

The Braves were one of eight teams who had scouts on hand Friday to watch Stroman’s most recent start, though as with many “scouts were in attendance…” types of reports at this time of year, this could be due diligence as much as a case of genuine interest on Atlanta’s part.  Given that the Jays were facing another out-of-contention team in the Tigers, the Braves could have been more focused on some of Detroit’s trade candidates, in addition to Stroman, Giles, or other trade chips on the Blue Jays roster.  (Giles, for the record, didn’t pitch on Friday through he did toss a scoreless inning for the save in Saturday’s game.)

Beyond just scouting, the Braves obviously have a very well-informed source on all things Stroman in general manager Alex Anthopoulos, whose front office made Stroman the 22nd overall pick in 2012 when Anthopoulos was Toronto’s GM.  There has been some speculation as to whether any hard feelings between Anthopoulos and current Jays management could hamper any trade talks between the two clubs, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) notes that the Blue Jays’ “stance has softened” about making deals with Atlanta, if a particularly hard line was taken at all.

Toronto is known to be seeking a big return for Stroman, and the “ask is high” on Giles as well, in O’Brien’s words.  Giles is not only under team control through 2020, but he is also one of the very best relievers on the trade market this month.  The 28-year-old righty has a 1.64 ERA, 5.7 K/BB rate, and an enormous 15.55 K/9 over 33 innings this season. 

Armed with a fastball that has above-average spin (as per Statcast) and an average velocity of 97.3 mph, Giles has quietly been one of baseball’s more dominant closers, and is seemingly all the way back to top form after running into some difficulties on the field and off with the Astros in 2017-18.  While postseason struggles were a big part of Giles’ issues in Houston, he still represents a more proven ninth-inning answer than the Braves’ current closer, Luke Jackson.

Like many other teams, the Braves aren’t keen on giving up their top prospects for rental players, making Stroman (who also has an arbitration year remaining) and Giles more palatable trade targets since they can also help the club in 2020.  Just one year of control, however, might not be enough to pry away some of the Braves’ top prospects from their highly-rated farm system.  Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution lists right-handers Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright and outfielders Cristian Pache and Drew Waters (the Braves’ top four minor leaguers, according to MLB.com’s rankings) as the youngsters that could be closest to untouchable in trade discussions.  None would be dealt “unless it’s for a controllable difference maker,” Burns writes, and it remains to be seen if the Braves would consider Stroman or Giles at that level.  This is purely my opinion, but I doubt Atlanta would deal any of those prospects for a reliever, even one as talented as Giles.

It’s easy for fans or armchair GMs to argue that the Braves should be more forthcoming to deal from their large wealth of prospects, though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) noted that these minor leaguers are particularly important to a Braves organization that is more than a little hamstrung in the international market due to the signing violations that cost former GM John Coppolella his job in 2017.  Since the Braves front office also seems to be operating with a mid-level payroll at best, it makes the pipeline of talent like Pache, Anderson, Wright, and Waters all the more important to the team going forward.

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