Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

After signing Zack Greinke and acquiring Shelby Miller last offseason, the D-backs had high expectations in 2016. Things couldn’t have gone much worse, though. Star center fielder A.J. Pollock went down late in camp. The club fell out of the playoff race early on and ended up losing 93 games. Manager Chip Hale and general manager Dave Stewart lost their jobs. And Chief Baseball Officer Tony LaRussa ended up being reduced to a lesser role. Now, a revamped front office, led by a group of former Red Sox execs, has been tasked with turning things around.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Zack Greinke, SP: $172.6MM through 2021.
  • Yasmany Tomas, OF: $56MM through 2020. Tomas can become a free agent after the 2018 World Series if he declines a player option.
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $22MM through 2018. Contract includes a $14.5MM club option in 2019 with a $2MM buyout.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Arizona Diamondbacks Depth Chart; Arizona Diamondbacks Payroll Information

A new era has begun in Arizona with a shift from the “old school” mindset of Stewart and Hall of Fame manager LaRussa, who had no front office experience when he was hired in May 2014, to an analytics-savvy group with much more front office experience. Mike Hazen was hired last month as the team’s executive vice president and general manager. Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter, who worked together for years with Hazen in the Red Sox front office, have since been brought in as his top assistants. Torey Lovullo, Boston’s bench coach for the past four seasons, was hired as manager.

Lovullo inherits a roster that was one of the most disappointing in baseball last season. Injuries to Pollock (46 plate appearances) and fellow outfielder David Peralta (183 plate appearances) didn’t help. Greinke, while still an effective starting pitcher with a 62% quality start rate, finished the season with his highest ERA (4.37) since 2005, highest H/9 (9.1) and HR/9 (1.3) since 2006 and highest WHIP (1.273) since 2008. Miller was a disaster, posting a 6.15 ERA in 20 starts. And Patrick Corbin failed to bounce back to his pre-Tommy John surgery form.

Yet, this D-backs roster has a lot of talent. Well, at least talented hitters. The pitching staff was one of the worst in baseball in 2016. While the Orioles (19th in ERA) and Rangers (22nd in ERA) did their best to out-slug opponents all the way to the playoffs, the other eight post-season qualifiers had the eight lowest ERAs in baseball. Good pitching and good defense win championships. While the D-backs still have some really good arms in their organization, it’s hard to find one, other than Greinke, who they can confidently rely on for 180+ quality innings.

Hazen will likely look to add at least one starting pitcher to the mix, along with a closer and setup man. He has indicated that the payroll is expected to stay around $100MM—they’re currently projected just under that, including non-guaranteed salary projections—which would probably limit him to bargain hunting on the free agent market. Club president/CEO Derrick Hall has stated, however, that his new general manager won’t face payroll limitations, at least not on his first year on the job. Regardless of how these somewhat conflicting statements are interpreted, Hazen has the trade chips that would allow him not only to improve and balance out the roster, but also to create some payroll flexibility at the same time.

Peralta and Pollock should have strong trade value despite missing most of 2016. Welington Castillo, who is due to become a free agent next offseason, should also draw interest with several teams looking for catching help. Hazen could also flip second baseman Jean Segura at peak value after one brilliant season in Arizona. Yasmany Tomas, a bad defender with a low walk rate and a hefty salary, will likely be shopped to American League teams, but it won’t be easy an easy sell despite his huge second half at the plate (.294/.323/.584). Of course, trading players such as those would run the risk of opening holes elsewhere on the roster.

Young starters Archie Bradley, Robbie Ray and Braden Shipley each had their moments, but all finished the season with an ERA in the neighborhood of 5.00. All struggled badly at Chase Field. The left-handed Ray, who struck out 218 hitters in 174 1/3 innings, is a bit of an enigma. His 11.3 K/9 rate indicates that batters would have a tough time putting the ball in play, but he gave up more than a hit per inning and allowed five earned runs in nine of his 32 starts. Corbin finished the season in the bullpen after struggling to follow up on his promising 2015 season.

The good news is that Bradley, Shipley and Miller — all former No. 1 prospects in their respective organizations at one time — join Ray as arms with their share of upside. And Corbin, the oldest of the group at age 27, pitched well during his late-season bullpen stint—he had an 0.95 ERA while holding opponents to a .141 batting average in mostly two and three-inning stints over his last nine appearances.

There are a few other names to consider, too. Rubby De La Rosa was beginning to look like a breakout candidate in 2016 after a stretch of four dominant starts in five outings between April 23rd and May 15th. Unfortunately, he would make just one more start before an elbow injury knocked him out of action until September. After undergoing stem cell treatment in September in an attempt to avoid Tommy John surgery, the 27-year-old’s status is up in the air for 2017. Matt Koch could be in the mix for a rotation spot after a pair of impressive September starts (11 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, BB, 6 K) in addition to a scoreless four-inning relief stint, as might lefty Anthony Banda, who was very good during his first season in the upper minors (2.88 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 9.1 K/9 in 26 starts between Triple-A and Double-A).

The bullpen picture is just as murky with Jake Barrett the only young pitcher to force his way into the picture for 2017. The 25-year-old, who had a 3.49 ERA, four saves and eight holds in 68 appearances, could get a shot at the closer’s role, but is more likely slated for setup duty. Randall Delgado, while unable to work his way into a late-inning role, remains a valuable middle reliever who can take the ball often (79 appearances in 2016) and pitch multiple innings on occasion. Aside from that duo, it’s a wide open competition for whatever spots are still left after Hazen is done shopping.

Hard-throwing Enrique Burgos didn’t fare well when given an opportunity to pitch with the game on the line. Silvino Bracho’s minor league dominance hasn’t carried over to the big leagues. Andrew Chafin took a step backwards due to injuries and ineffectiveness after a very good 2015 season. That’s not to say he can’t bounce back, or that Burgos and Bracho won’t take a step forward. But these are currently some of the team’s top candidates to fill out the bullpen, which is why adding to the relief corps is a top priority for Hazen. A wild card could be De La Rosa, who might be a better fit in the ’pen if he can avoid Tommy John surgery. Lefty Jared Miller has likely worked his way into the team’s plans with his dominant performance in the Arizona Fall League (16 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 3 BB, 27 K).

It’s hard to know what kinds of targets might be pursued, not least of which since salary considerations could leave the D-Backs waiting for buy-low opportunities to emerge. But there are a fair number of former closers on the market this year, including recent Red Sox hurler Koji Uehara as well as Drew Storen, Santiago Casilla, Joaquin Benoit, Jonathan Papelbon, Fernando Rodney, Joe Nathan, and former Arizona man Brad Ziegler. Offering a shot at the ninth inning to one of those pitchers — or, perhaps, another who doesn’t have a history as a closer — could be a nice way to woo some talent without paying top dollar.

Turning to the lineup, the team has to be encouraged by the emergence of Brandon Drury, who had a .786 OPS, 16 homers and 31 doubles in 499 plate appearances while playing four different positions (LF, RF, 3B, 2B), and third baseman Jake Lamb (.804 OPS, 29 HR, 31 2B). They further bolster a group that’s led by perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, Pollock (20 HR, 39 2B, 39 SB in 2015), Peralta (.893 OPS, 17 HR, 26 2B, 10 3B in 2015), Segura (.867 OPS, 20 HR, 41 2B, 33 SB), Castillo and Tomas.

With so much firepower in the top seven spots of the order, it’s not a given that Chris Owings, an average defender who had a .731 OPS with 21 stolen bases, will beat out Nick Ahmed, a Gold Glove caliber defender who can’t hit much at all, for the starting shortstop gig. Owings might have more value as a super utility-man, anyways—he’s also played second base and center field—especially if Drury ends up being the everyday left fielder.

If the outfield goes Tomas-Pollock-Peralta, the organization likely will be set for the bulk of its innings. And other internal options can probably make up for the rest. Mitch Haniger may be first in line for reserve duties after cracking the majors last year. Chris Herrmann can both back up behind the plate and spend some time in the corner outfield. Reasonably intriguing prospects such as Peter O’Brien and Socrates Brito remain on hand, and perhaps are ready to sink or swim. And the D-Backs already claimed Jeremy Hazelbaker to provide a possible left-handed complement to Tomas.

Ultimately, Arizona doesn’t seem destined to do much tinkering with its position players, at least this winter. That could all change if a golden trade offer floats into Hazen’s door, but for now it seems rather likely that the organization will mostly stand pat and see what it can do to add arms. All is quiet on the Diamondbacks rumor front at the moment, but they cannot completely be discounted in the pursuit of top free agents. Hall’s comments on the payroll should at least leave open the possibility that they can make a free agent splash. Remember that this is the team that swooped in at the last minute to win the Greinke sweepstakes … though it’s fair to wonder whether Hazen will prefer that approach.

Indeed, if the plan is to not increase payroll, is it possible that they go in the complete opposite direction and allow the new front office to tear down and start over? Hey, a bunch of former Red Sox execs executed the rebuilding plan to perfection with the Cubs. With several valuable trade assets, it has to be a tempting possibility for the group of former Red Sox execs now running the show in Arizona.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Dodgers have the highest payroll in baseball and some big holes to fill on their roster. They also have the necessary financial resources to retain their own free agents and bid competitively for the top players on the free agent market. And, if they choose to explore the trade market, they have the elite young talent necessary to acquire an impact player or two. At the very least, the Hot Stove talk surrounding this team will be very interesting this offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Clayton Kershaw, SP: $139.3MM through 2020. Kershaw can opt out after the 2018 World Series.
  • Adrian Gonzalez, 1B: $44.7MM through 2018.
  • Scott Kazmir, SP: $35.3MM through 2018.
  • Brandon McCarthy, SP: $23MM through 2018.
  • Kenta Maeda, SP: $21MM through 2023.
  • Andre Ethier, OF: $20MM through 2017. Contract includes a $17.5MM club option in 2018 with a $2.5MM buyout.
  • Yasiel Puig, OF: $17.4MM through 2018. Puig can opt in to arbitration during the 2016 offseason. He is on pace to become a free agent after the 2019 season.
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP: $15.6MM through 2018.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Other Financial Commitments

  • Yaisel Sierra, SP: Owed $28MM through 2021 (removed from 40-man roster in 2016)
  • Carl Crawford, OF: Owed $21.8MM through 2017 (released in 2016)
  • Hector Olivera, OF: Owed $18.7MM through 2020 (traded in 2015)
  • Erisbel Arruebarrena, SS: Owed $12MM through 2018 (removed from 40-man roster during 2015-16 offseason)
  • Matt Kemp, OF: Owed $10.5MM through 2019 (traded during 2014-15 offseason)
  • Alex Guerrero, IF/OF: Owed $7.5MM through 2017 (released in 2016)
  • Dian Toscano, OF: Owed $3.6MM through 2018 (removed from 40-man roster during 2015-16 offseason)

Free Agents

Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart; Los Angeles Dodgers Payroll Information

Andrew Friedman (President of Baseball Operations) and Farhan Zaidi (general manager) have maintained a conservative approach in free agency since taking over prior to the 2014-15 offseason, focusing on building a team that can compete year in and year out as opposed to a high risk “win-now” approach. Four consecutive division titles says that they’re on the right track. But they’ve also been knocked out of the playoffs in each of those seasons and haven’t been to the World Series since 1988 while the division-rival Giants have won three World Series championships since 2010. The Dodgers are also in danger of losing two players who have been integral to the team’s recent success.

Third baseman Justin Turner and closer Kenley Jansen, who rank No. 4 and 5, respectively, in our Free Agent Power Rankings, would not be easy to replace if they were to sign elsewhere. There are no internal options ready to step in. Luis Valbuena is the only other free agent who can be viewed as a starting third base option. There are two other elite closers—Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon—but as many as four other teams (Cubs, Giants, Nationals, Yankees) are expected to pursue them.

If Turner does not re-sign, the Dodgers could be scrambling to find his replacement. Despite entering his age-32 season, he’s in line for a huge payday after slashing .296/.364/.492 while playing terrific defense at the hot corner in his three seasons with the Dodgers. While he’d certainly be an upgrade for many teams around the league, there doesn’t appear to be a team that comes remotely close to the Dodgers in terms of need and payroll flexibility. MLBTR has predicted that he’ll return on a five-year, $85MM deal.

Even if they can hang on to Turner, who struggled badly against lefties in 2016, adding another right-handed hitter to balance out a left-handed heavy lineup would seem to be a priority. The heart of the order includes lefties Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez and Joc Pederson. Switch-hitter Yasmani Grandal is a better hitter with much more power from the left-hand side. Darin Ruf, acquired from the Phillies in the Howie Kendrick trade, has a .921 OPS in 321 career plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, although he’ll likely be relegated mostly to pinch-hitting duty.

In addition to third base, the Dodgers could possibly be searching for a new second baseman. Enrique Hernandez, Micah Johnson and Chris Taylor represent internal options, but the team could pursue a reunion with Chase Utley or explore the trade market. Los Angeles may also look at adding a corner outfielder if they’re still ready to move on from Yasiel Puig and/or are not comfortable going with some combination of Andre Ethier, Trayce Thompson, Scott Van Slyke and Andrew Toles at the other corner.

Brian Dozier and Ian Kinsler, both under team control through 2018, are logical trade targets. By acquiring a leadoff hitter who plays second base and crushes left-handed pitching, the Dodgers would be able to check off three boxes on their offseason shopping list. Yoenis Cespedes, as MLBTR has predicted, would be the biggest splash possible in free agency, while Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler are others who are capable of making a big impact while filling multiple needs.

Puig will once again be one of the more interesting names being thrown around in trade rumors, although it wouldn’t be a big surprise if he stayed put. After being sent to Triple-A Oklahoma City for the entire month of August, the 25-year-old returned to post a .900 OPS over his final 65 plate appearances. Zaidi recently expressed that Puig did everything asked of him after the demotion and that the organization felt “really good about where he is”.

While his comments could be posturing in an attempt to boost Puig’s trade value, Zaidi might not want to trade the team’s most productive hitter against left-handed pitching. Puig’s .784 OPS versus lefties was best on a team that was, by far, the worst in baseball against them (.622 OPS).

Starting pitching depth does not appear to be a problem, but adding a legitimate frontline starter to pair with Clayton Kershaw could conceivably be in the Dodgers’ plans. Re-signing Rich Hill, who has pitched like an ace in 24 starts since September 2015, would likely suffice, but the expected bidding war could push his asking price well above what any team should feel comfortable giving a soon-to-be 37-year-old with a checkered injury history. They could also swing a trade to bolster their rotation. Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana and Chris Archer are amongs the most notable starting pitchers who might be available this offseason.

There is no shortage of candidates to compete for a rotation spot after Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir and, potentially, Hill or another acquisition. Julio Urias will have the edge after posting a 1.99 ERA in the 2nd half while Brandon McCarthy, Alex Wood, Jose De Leon, Ross Stripling and Brock Stewart could also be in the mix, as might Hyun-jin Ryu if he can ever get healthy.

Whether or not Los Angeles will beat the market for a top relief arm remains to be seen. The current front office has not invested big dollars in the pen as yet, but it could be that Jansen will represent a special case. And the organization is said to have interest in Chapman, who was nearly acquired last winter before news emerged of a domestic violence incident. There are a variety of trade possibilities, too, but the Dodgers can’t be counted out to pursue a creative option — even one that spurns a typical closer role.

Closer’s job aside, the Dodgers’ bullpen could remain mostly intact. Luis Avilan, Pedro Baez, Grant Dayton, Josh Fields and Josh Ravin were all very good in the second half as the Dodgers pulled away in the NL West. A few of the aforementioned starting candidates, particularly Wood, have the potential to fill bullpen roles. While it’s unlikely to happen from the onset of the 2017 season, Urias and De Leon have the ability to dominate out of the ’pen. Middle and late-inning relief is not expected to be a priority unless, for some reason, they are unable to acquire a closer and are forced to fill the role internally.

Between Avilan, Dayton (2.05 ERA, 4.8 H/9, 2.1 BB/9, 13.3 K/9 in 25 appearances), Adam Liberatore (0.55 ERA, 10 holds in his first 42 appearances before an elbow injury derailed his season), newly-acquired Vidal Nuño and Wood, the Dodgers aren’t short on reliable lefty options for manager Dave Roberts. Baez, despite being a painfully slow worker, is capable of stepping into free agent Joe Blanton’s eighth inning setup role. Yimi Garcia, who was terrific as a rookie in 2015 before missing most of last season with biceps and knee injuries, could also factor into the mix.

After the 2018 season, the only guaranteed contracts remaining on L.A.’s books belong to Kershaw ($34.5MM in ’19 and $33.5MM in ’20), if he doesn’t exercise his opt-out clause, and Maeda ($3MM per season through ’23). Even if their inability to advance to the World Series, the success of their biggest rival and the potential loss of Jansen and Turner hasn’t changed their thinking on how they’d like to operate, it’s clear that the Dodgers have a whole lot of financial flexibility in the near future. Not only can they begin to explore contract extensions for young stars Grandal, Pederson and Seager, they are set up to make a huge splash this offseason.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

It turns out an even year had nothing to do with the Giants winning a World Championship. The secret formula all along had been a combination of great starting pitching, timely hitting and a reliable bullpen. While they did win 87 games and clinch a Wild Card berth before losing to the Cubs in the NLDS, it was clear that the “reliable bullpen” portion was a missing ingredient in 2016.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Buster Posey, C: $110MM through 2021. Contract includes a $22MM club option in 2022 with a $3MM buyout.
  • Johnny Cueto, SP: $115MM through 2021. Cueto can opt out after the 2017 World Series. Contract includes a $22MM club option in 2022 with a $5MM buyout.
  • Brandon Belt, 1B: $72.8MM through 2021.
  • Brandon Crawford, SS: $69MM through 2021.
  • Jeff Samardzija, SP: $79.2MM through 2020.
  • Hunter Pence, OF: $37MM through 2018.
  • Denard Span, OF: $28MM through 2018. Contract includes a $12MM mutual option in 2019 with a $4MM buyout.
  • Matt Cain, SP: $28.1MM through 2017. Contract includes a $21MM club option in 2018 with a $7.5MM buyout.
  • Madison Bumgarner, SP: $13MM through 2017. Contract includes a $12MM club option in 2018 with a $1.5MM buyout and a $12MM club option in 2019.
  • Matt Moore, SP: $8.75MM through 2017. Contract includes a $9MM club option in 2018 with a $1MM buyout and a $10MM club option in 2019 with a $750K buyout.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

San Francisco Giants Depth Chart; San Francisco Giants Payroll Information

The Giants’ offseason needs are pretty obvious. Closer is priority number one. Left field, although not nearly as urgent, would be the other void that general manager Bobby Evans will likely fill this offseason. Other than that, they’re still in very good shape.

Future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy is entering his 23rd season as a Major League manager—2017 will be his 11th season with the Giants—and closing in on 1800 regular season victories to go along with his three World Series titles and four National League Championships. He’ll lead a group of talented players with a ton of playoff experience and still in the prime of their career.

The starting rotation remains the strength of their roster. Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto might form the best 1-2 punch in baseball. Jeff Samardzija gave the team over 200 quality innings in year one of his five-year, $90MM contract. Matt Moore was very good after he was acquired on August 1st, especially when it counted the most. The 27-year-old lefty was dominant over his last three starts (23.2 IP, 3 ER, 11 H, 4 BB, 27 K), including Game Four of the NLDS.

Matt Cain should get the first shot at filling the No. 5 spot in the rotation, mostly because he’s making close to $21MM in 2017. The three-time All-Star, who averaged 32 starts from 2006-2013, has been on the disabled list more often than not over the past three seasons. When healthy enough to take the mound, he’s nowhere near as effective as he once was. While the walk and strikeout rates haven’t changed much, his WHIP and ERA have skyrocketed. It’s unclear how much the injuries have to do with his decline and whether he can bounce back at age 32. Fortunately, the Giants have plenty of depth and several young candidates who could step in if necessary.

Chris Heston, who missed most of 2016 with an oblique injury after an impressive rookie season, could be Cain’s top competitor. Clayton Blackburn, Ty Blach and Chris Stratton have nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level and figure to get a long look in Spring Training. None of the three, as is the case with Heston, has more than mid-rotation potential, but won’t be asked to be more than a No. 5 in the Giants’ rotation.

Top pitching prospect Tyler Beede, the 14th pick in the 2014 draft, could also force himself into the picture after posting a 2.81 ERA with 3.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 24 Double-A starts in 2016. Former Marlins ace Josh Johnson, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2013 because of injuries and will turn 33 in January, will also be in MLB camp.

Despite the struggles of the bullpen in 2016, the group of pitchers expected to bridge the gap to the yet-to-be-acquired closer can be quite good. Lefty Will Smith, another August 1st trade acquisition, is one of the top lefty setup men in the league, though he wasn’t necessarily treated that way upon arriving in San Francisco. Fellow lefty Steven Okert has the potential to be one of the best rookie relievers in 2017. Derek Law and Hunter Strickland, while not able to step in and solidify the closer role once Santiago Casilla floundered late in 2016, were still very good overall and should be more than adequate in late-inning setup roles. George Kontos has a 2.49 ERA in 154 relief appearances over the past three seasons and the versatile Albert Suarez should also contribute.

With three of the best closers in baseball available on the free agent market, the Giants are expected to pounce on one as quickly as possible. However, they’ll have to outbid several teams that also have a need at the closer position. The Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Nationals and Yankees could all make aggressive bids for Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon. Even if the closer market is limited to those six teams — which is no sure thing with other organizations possibly looking to bolster their pens –three of them will be left to choose between Greg Holland, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, and a long list of much less appealing former closers, including Jonathan Papelbon, Fernando Rodney and Koji Uehara. Jeremy Jeffress, who was an effective closer for the Brewers before a mid-season trade to the Rangers, is a potential trade candidate. The Orioles and Royals could also shop their respective closers, Zach Britton and Wade Davis, albeit with lofty price tags that would likely scare off any suitors that weren’t absolutely desperate.

The 2017 Opening Day lineup will look a lot like the 2016 version—Denard Span, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik are all penciled into starting spots once again—aside from a new third baseman and, unless Pagan is re-signed, a new left fielder.

Late-season hero Conor Gillaspie, who went 7-for-14 with a homer and two doubles in his last five regular season games and 8-for-19 in the post-season, including a game-winning homer in the Giants’ Wild Card game victory, probably did enough to put him in the mix at third base in 2017. Eduardo Nuñez, an All-Star in 2016 before he was acquired from the Twins in late July, could prove to be the better option, though. Regardless of whether he wins the starting job at third base, his speed (40 SB), power (16 HR) and versatility (he can play 2B, 3B, SS, LF and RF) will ensure he’s in the lineup on a regular basis.

A platoon in left field with Jarrett Parker (.942 OPS in 151 career plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers) and either Gorkys Hernandez or Mac Williamson isn’t out of the question, but there are several proven options on the free agent market that the Giants could sign.

If the Giants are willing to pay top dollar and significantly increase their payroll, Yoenis Cespedes could be on their radar. The cost of finding a good closer likely decreases those chances, though, which would make Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Josh Reddick more likely targets. If the plan is to not increase their payroll significantly, Jon Jay or Matt Joyce could be more cost-efficient options, as would bringing back free agent Angel Pagan. The trade market should also present some options with Jorge Soler one of the notable players expected to be shopped.

Keeping this veteran core of talent together isn’t cheap. Even with the salaries of Casilla, Javier Lopez, Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo and Pagan coming off the books, the Giants are projected to be very close to the 2016 payroll total before making a move. My current projection has them around $170MM, the fifth highest total in baseball. Signing one of the top free agents this offseason would require either a payroll increase, creative contract structuring or a trade. If Evans can make it happen, though, the Giants will enter the 2017 season with one of the most talented and well-balanced rosters in the league.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Since four consecutive winning seasons to begin the Petco Park era, including a pair of division championships, the Padres have had a losing record in eight of the last nine years—they won 90 games in 2010, but fell short of the playoffs after a late-season collapse—while playing very few meaningful games in a beautiful ballpark. Are there any reasons to believe that good times are ahead for this organization?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Other Financial Commitments

  • James Shields, SP: Owed $22MM through 2018 (traded in 2016)
  • Matt Kemp, OF: Owed est. $7.5MM through 2019 (traded in 2016)
  • Melvin Upton Jr., OF: Owed $11.45MM in 2017 (traded in 2016)
  • Jedd Gyorko, 2B: Owed $7.5MM through 2019 (traded during 2015-16 offseason)
  • Hector Olivera, OF: Owed $28.5MM through 2020 (released in 2016)

Free Agents

San Diego Padres Depth Chart; San Diego Padres Payroll Information

General manager A.J. Preller has spent the past year digging his team out of the hole that resulted from the Padres’ premature “win-now” approach during his first offseason on the job, while also overseeing the rebuild of a team that has had very little success drafting, signing or acquiring young talent over the past couple of decades. He was also suspended 30 days by Major League Baseball for failure to disclose player medical information in trade discussions.

The results of Preller’s rebuild, thus far, are promising. While the Padres are still paying a lot of money to several players who are no longer with the team, they have also shed the payroll of any long-term commitments and opened roster spots for younger players. Carlos Asuaje and Manuel Margot, both acquired from the Red Sox in last offseason’s Craig Kimbrel trade, should make an impact at the Major League level in 2017. The same goes for a handful of players who were picked up off the scrap heap and given an audition in 2016, including Ryan Buchter, Christian Friedrich, Brad Hand, Luis Sardinas and Ryan Schimpf.

As for how the medical information scandal affects the team during the upcoming offseason, we can only speculate. It might have very little impact, if any at all. The trades that Preller absolutely had to make, for purposes of the rebuild, have already been made. He no longer has to sell a fellow general manager on why they should take on a high-priced player no longer in the prime of his career while giving up something of value in return. In addition, the urgency to finalize a trade is much lower in the offseason than during the season, particularly one close to the trade deadline. Medical records can be reviewed more thoroughly, and teams can utilize their own medical staff to assess the players involved.

One player that Preller could have a hard time moving is catcher Derek Norris, who is expected to lose his starting job to defensive standout Austin Hedges, who also raked in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League this year. Norris finished with a slash line of .186/.255/.328, which is probably the biggest reason why Preller was unable to trade him during the season. Carrying Norris as the backup catcher is still a possibility with Christian Bethancourt potentially taking on a hybrid catcher/outfielder/relief pitcher role. However, a backup catcher making $4MM per season isn’t ideal for any small-market club, even one with a payroll as open as the Padres, and there is probably enough of a market for Preller to find a match in trade talks.

Moving Norris could prove to be a challenge, but Preller should field plenty of calls from general managers interested in the team’s plethora of talented position players with multiple years of club control. Between Asuaje (2B/3B), Alex Dickerson (LF/1B), Travis Jankowski (CF/LF), Margot (CF), Wil Myers (1B/LF/RF), Hunter Renfroe (RF/LF), Schimpf (2B/3B), Yangervis Solarte (3B/2B/1B) and Cory Spangenberg (2B/3B), the Padres have nine players to fill six starting jobs (1B, 2B, 3B, CF, LF, RF).

Manager Andy Green has stated that only Myers, an NL All-Star and Gold Glove finalist in his first full season as a first baseman, and Solarte (.808 OPS in 109 games) are guaranteed lineup spots next season. While they currently form the core of the Padres’ lineup, both players would likely be in high demand if the Padres were to shop them. With three years of club control remaining for each player, the price tag would be high. On a team that appears to be at least another year or two away from contending, it wouldn’t be a surprise if any players who aren’t guaranteed to be around past 2019 are dealt.

Re-signing free agent Jon Jay, who the team has expressed interest in bringing back, would further increase the chances that one of the outfielders, most likely Dickerson or Jankowski, will be traded. However, a solid season by the 31-year-old, despite missing more than two months with a fractured forearm, should ensure that he’ll find an opportunity on a team who can give him a better shot at regular playing time.

If there is to be a new face in the Padres’ lineup in 2017, it could be at shortstop. At the least, the 23-year-old Sardinas has put himself into the mix with a strong showing—.287/.353/.417 in 120 plate appearances—after he was acquired from the Mariners last August for cash considerations. While his struggles in the big leagues during previous stints with the Rangers, Brewers and Mariners led to his stock dropping significantly since he was a highly-touted prospect a few years ago, the Padres’ sense of urgency to find a short-term and long-term answer at the position has likely decreased.

Signing Erick Aybar to a one-year deal or trading for Zack Cozart or Danny Espinosa—both are under contract for one more season—would be decent stop-gap options if the Padres aren’t sold on Sardinas. It’s also possible that the A’s would entertain offers for Marcus Semien, who hit 27 homers in 2016 and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season, with top prospect Franklin Barreto closing in on the majors. Rangers’ infielder Jurickson Profar, with whom Preller is very familiar from his Rangers days, could be another trade target who would fill the position for 2017 and beyond. The asking price on either of those players figures to be sizable, though. Bringing back free agent utilityman Adam Rosales, who enjoyed a breakout season (.814 OPS, 13 HR in 248 plate appearances) at age 33, would give the team additional coverage at shortstop, as well as a platoon option versus left-handed pitching.

While the Padres’ offense appears to be headed in the right direction, the starting rotation is full of question marks. Staff ace Tyson Ross recently underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery after making only one start in 2016 due to shoulder pain. The Padres are hoping he’ll be ready to go by the start of Spring Training. Even if he can return to health, there are no certainties to fill any of the remaining spots. A healthy Ross, who is eligible for free agency after the 2017 season, would likely become one of the top trade targets for contending teams if the Padres were to fall out of playoff contention.

Luis Perdomo, a Rule 5 pick who went from bullpen mop-up duty to the team’s best starter in the second half, should be penciled into a rotation spot. While opposing hitters had trouble against the heavy sinker that he relied on almost exclusively, he’ll likely need to utilize his secondary pitches a bit more often in year two. Christian Friedrich and Paul Clemens each showed, on occasion, why they were once considered very good prospects. They also showed why, in their late 20s, they’ve failed to establish themselves as effective big league pitchers. Still, both likely did enough to remain on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason and will get a chance to compete for spots next spring.

Jarred Cosart and Colin Rea, if he can avoid Tommy John surgery, will also compete for rotation spots, as will Cesar Vargas, who was very good in five of his seven early-season starts before being shut down with a strained flexor tendon. Michael Kelly, Dinelson Lamet and Walter Lockett, three prospects who began the season in the low minors and rose to Triple-A by season’s end, should also be in the mix.

The bullpen is in much better shape than the rotation, thanks to Brandon Maurer, who settled into the closer’s role nicely after Fernando Rodney was traded (3.09 ERA, .572 opponent’s OPS, 13 saves in last 32 appearances) and talented lefties Buchter (2.86 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 20 holds) and Hand (2.92 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 21 holds). There’s a chance that Hand could move to the rotation—2016 was his first season working exclusively as a reliever—but Maurer’s failed attempt last spring, followed by a very shaky early-season performance once he returned to the bullpen, could have an affect on that decision.

A return to health from Carter Capps, who was acquired from the Marlins in the Andrew Cashner trade, could boost this group to an elite level. Prior to an elbow injury late in the 2015 season that eventually required Tommy John surgery last March, the 26-year-old right-hander had begun to establish himself as one of the most dominant relief pitchers in the game (1.16 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, 16.8 K/9 in 30 appearances). He’s expected to return early in the 2017 season, if not by Opening Day, and could push Maurer for the closer’s job at some point.

Phil Maton, a 20th-round draftee in 2015, is rising quickly through the system and could find himself in the Padres’ bullpen sometime in 2017. In 38 appearances between Low-A, High-A and Triple-A, the right-hander posted a 1.74 ERA with 1.9 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9. He’s also been quite effective in the Arizona Fall League, allowing only one run on four hits with no walks and eight strikeouts over seven innings.

As is the case with many teams, starting pitching will be the Padres’ top priority this offseason. It’s a safe bet, however, that they won’t be in the bidding for top free agent starters Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova. Instead, they’ll probably look to add at least two starting pitchers from a long list of free agents with diminished value or via the trade market, utilizing their position player depth as trade chips.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if one of Edwin Jackson or Clayton Richard returned. At times, Jackson looked like the pitcher that the Cubs signed for $52MM before the 2013 season. Other times, he resembled the pitcher they released with a year-and-a-half remaining on the deal. Richard, one of the team’s most reliable starting pitchers several years ago before injuries derailed his career, was particularly impressive with a 2.41 ERA in nine starts after the Padres picked him up late in the season. While Petco Park is not nearly as pitcher-friendly as it was during his first stint with the team, the 33-year-old lefty appears very comfortable there.

San Diego has always been a preferred choice for pitchers looking to rebuild value, although the weather and the opportunity to pitch at the top of the rotation are the Padres’ strongest selling points these days. The return of 2007 Cy Young award winner Jake Peavy would make sense, as would the signing of Jorge De La Rosa, an NL West veteran with a career 3.22 ERA at Petco Park. Both are former staff aces and, despite disappointing seasons, finished the year in good health and could be anxious to prove that they still have something left in the tank in their mid-30s.

The Padres could take a step forward in 2017 with Margot, Myers and Renfroe leading the offense and Capps, Maurer and Buchter closing the door on opponents late in the game. How much of a step forward will depend on their yet-to-be-determined starting rotation.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

By | at

Since July 2015, the rebuilding Reds have been able to trade away Jay Bruce, Aroldis Chapman, Johnny Cueto, Todd Frazier and Mike Leake in exchange for young talent, including several players who contributed in 2016. The team’s remaining star player, Joey Votto, is still in the prime of his career and would likely be willing to waive his no-trade clause if the rebuilding is to continue. Which direction will the Reds go this offseason?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $179MM through 2023 ($20MM club option in 2014; $7MM buyout; full no-trade clause)
  • Homer Bailey, SP: $69MM through 2019 ($25MM mutual option in 2020; $5MM buyout)
  • Brandon Phillips, 2B: $14MMMM through 2017 (full no-trade clause as part of 10-and-5 rights)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RP: est. $21MM through 2020 (can opt out and file for arbitration after 2017 season)
  • Devin Mesoraco, C: $20.45MM through 2018

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Free Agents

Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Information

The 33-year-old Votto is still owed close to $180MM through his age-39 season in 2023. With the expectation that he’d be past his prime for at least a few of those seven seasons, teams probably aren’t willing to take on that kind of money and give up premium young assets to get him. Unless the Reds are willing to eat a good chunk of his remaining salary, Votto is likely staying put.

With that in mind, along with a halfway decent second half (35-37) that likely saved manager Bryan Price’s job, it’s possible that the rebuilding period has come to an end. Notable acquisitions in trades for veteran talent since the 2014-15 offseason include Rookie Davis, Anthony DeSclafani, Adam Duvall, Brandon Finnegan, Dilson Herrera, Keury Mella, Jose Peraza, Cody Reed and Eugenio Suarez. With that group assembled, general manager Dick Williams could look to add an impact player or two at the major league level as he takes over the baseball operations department from president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty this offseason.

Votto might’ve been the best hitter in baseball in 2016 after struggling out of the gate. From May 1st through the end of the season, he posted a 1.044 OPS with 27 homers, 33 doubles and 96 walks. That’s a pretty good starting point if you’re building a playoff-caliber lineup. But is there enough talent surrounding him?

After posting a sub-.300 on-base percentage through the first 1350 plate appearances of his career, speedster Billy Hamilton reached base nearly 37% of the time in the second half of the 2016 season. While it was only 197 plate appearances—he suffered a season-ending oblique injury in early September—it was a very encouraging development for a Reds lineup that also had a breakout from Duvall (33 HR, 31 2B) and strong second half performances from Brandon Phillips (.828 OPS), Suarez (.765 OPS) and right fielder Schebler (.818 OPS).

A return to health from catcher Devin Mesoraco would give the Reds an additional boost. The 28-year-old has played in only 39 games since signing a four-year contract extension after a terrific 2014 season (.893 OPS, 25 HR). The expectation is that he’ll be ready for Spring Training after undergoing shoulder surgery in May and and hip surgery in July. Even if Mesoraco is healthy, the Reds figure to ease him back to regular duties with Tucker Barnhart, a strong defender who posted a .702 OPS in 2016, having proved that he was a capable big league catcher.

Even if the rebuild is over, the Reds could still look to trade Phillips—he would need to waive his no-trade clause— and shortstop Zack Cozart, with Peraza and Herrera representing capable replacements up the middle. Phillips, who vetoed a trade to the Washington Nationals last offseason, is entering the final year of his contract and set to earn $14MM.

The market for a highly-paid second baseman entering his age-36 season probably isn’t great even if Phillips agrees to waive his no-trade clause. Cozart, on the other hand, should have plenty of interest, although the Reds likely missed their best shot at trading him at peak value. When the trade deadline passed on August 1st, Cozart was having a career year with a .779 OPS and 15 homers. He stayed put, however, and went into a 19-for-96 (.198 BA) with one homer before he was shut down with a sore knee in mid-September. The Mariners, who were reportedly close to acquiring Cozart prior to the trade deadline, could still have him on their radar. The Padres and Twins, who have Luis Sardinas and Jorge Polanco penciled in, respectively, could also be interested in acquiring Cozart for 2017.

While there are no clear holes in the lineup, Schebler’s success came in a small sample (.762 OPS in 82 games) and the addition of another corner outfielder, at least to create some competition and provide depth, wouldn’t be a bad idea. Peraza, who posted a .762 OPS with 21 stolen bases in 72 games as a rookie, could also push for playing time at several different spots. He started games at shortstop, center field, left field and second base in 2016. Even if a regular lineup spot isn’t in the cards for 2017, his versatility still allows him to fill a super-utility role with at least four starts per week.

The pitching staff, despite finishing the season with the 3rd worst ERA in baseball (4.91), also gave the team plenty of reasons for optimism with strong second half performances from both the starting rotation and bullpen.

After missing the first two months of the season with an oblique injury, DeSclafani was able to stabilize the top of the rotation with a 3.28 ERA and 70% quality start rate. Taking a flyer on Dan Straily, who was claimed off of waivers just before the start of the season, worked out well. The 27-year-old led the team in wins (14), starts (31), innings (191.1) and strikeouts (162) while posting a respectable 3.76 ERA. The team’s bevy of young starting pitchers mostly struggled, but Finnegan finished on a strong note with a 2.23 ERA over his last 11 starts.

Unsurprisingly, Homer Bailey’s return from Tommy John surgery was not a smooth one (6.65 ERA in six starts) and top prospects Reed and Robert Stephenson proved that they weren’t quite ready for the big leagues. However, Bailey should be closer to his pre-injury form next April and the talented duo of Reed and Stephenson are breakout candidates in 2017. Amir Garrett (2.55 ERA, 3.7 BB/9. 8.2 K/9 between Triple-A and Double-A) could also factor into the mix.

There are still too many question marks for the Reds to stand pat, however, and the addition of another reliable starting pitcher could be at the top of their offseason wish list. But as is the case with the other 29 teams in baseball, this is easier said than done. Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson and Ivan Nova are the best starters available in free agency and would likely cost more than the Reds are willing to pay to upgrade their rotation. The key will be finding a gem amongst the long list of free agent mid-rotation options who are coming off of unproductive and/or injury-riddled seasons.

While Raisel Iglesias could be the frontline starter that the Reds need, the closer’s role that he finished the season in might a permanent one. With his health and durability a long-term concern, the Reds had the 26-year-old pitch out of the bullpen after a disabled list stint that kept him out of action from mid-April until late July. As expected, he was very tough on opposing hitters and his ability to pitch multiple innings proved to be valuable. By season’s end, he was Price’s top choice to close out games. Michael Lorenzen, another former starter moved to the bullpen because of health concerns, also thrived in his new role and emerged as the primary setup man.

Jumbo Diaz and Blake Wood pitched well enough to enter 2017 with spots, as did lefty Tony Cingrani, who held down the closer’s job for a long stretch before struggling in September. Alejandro Chacin, who dominated at the Double-A level in 2016 (1.78 ERA, 11.1 K/9), could also make an impact next season.

Adding two veteran relievers who Price can lean on to help ease the workload of Iglesias and Lorenzen would go a long way in bringing the Reds back to respectability. Williams has expressed a willingness to spend money to upgrade this area of the roster, which could put them in the mix for one of the top free agent relievers not named Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon.

It’s unrealistic to think that the Reds can jump to the top of the pack in a very tough division. If they continue to build on the several bright spots from the second half, however, and add some talent to the big league roster this offseason, 81-85 wins isn’t out of the question in 2017.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top