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Offseason Closer Market Update
It’s been clear for weeks that a game of musical chairs this offseason could leave at least one playoff hopeful without a reliable closer option. With the Winter Meetings behind us, a few options are off the board, but several teams still have voids to fill.
Here’s an update on teams who came into the offseason looking for a closer upgrade and the best remaining options to land one of the jobs.
*Click on the team name to view an updated depth chart
Arizona Diamondbacks – FILLED
Fernando Rodney, one of the best closers in baseball during the 1st half of 2016 and one of the worst after the Padres traded him to the Marlins, agreed to a one-year, $2.75MM deal. He’ll enter his age-40 season as the D’backs closer. If the can return to his pre-Marlins form, and if the Diamondbacks drop out of the playoff hunt, he could find himself back on the trade block.
Chicago Cubs – FILLED
Instead of setting their sights on one of the three pitchers who would eventually become the highest paid closers in MLB history, the Cubs used one of their many trade chips, outfielder Jorge Soler, to acquire Wade Davis from the Royals. The 31-year-old Davis, who has a 1.18 ERA and 0.892 WHIP over the past three seasons, is set to earn $10MM in his final year before reaching free agency.
There shouldn’t be much concern with Adam Ottavino as a late-inning option after posting solid numbers across the board while returning from Tommy John surgery in 2016. But with Jake McGee failing to impress during his first season with the Rockies, they would be wise to look for another reliable option to either close or serve as Ottavino’s primary setup man. The team had contacted Colorado native Mark Melancon, who was reportedly willing to take less money to pitch for the Rockies, but they apparently weren’t willing to compete with the Giants or other teams who offered him at least $60MM. They’ve shown interest in Brad Ziegler, who has decent numbers in 17.1 career innings at Coors Field.
They’re still one of the favorites to land Kenley Jansen, who is also being courted by the Marlins and Nationals. For a team that has so much money invested throughout their roster, it would be a huge disappointment if they missed out on retaining Jansen or adding another elite closer. If Jansen bolts, they’d likely turn to the trade market.
After losing out on the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes, the Marlins will have one more chance to land the type of closer who could make their bullpen the clear strength of their team. Jansen’s former manager Don Mattingly and teammates Dee Gordon and A.J. Ellis would be familiar faces is he signs with Miami.
The trio of A.J. Ramos, Kyle Barraclough and David Phelps are capable of shutting the door in the late innings, but adding Jansen would further help to offset a rotation that is unlikely to pitch deep into games very often. Neftali Feliz and Ziegler are potential fallback options, although neither is a sure bet to supplant Ramos in the closer’s role.
There hasn’t been a lot of buzz surrounding the Twins and who will be their closer in 2017. Glen Perkins made just two appearances last season before being shut down with a shoulder injury. With his status up in the air for early in the season as he recovers from surgery to repair a torn labrum in June, the Twins will need a good Plan B until he’s ready to resume closing duties. Brandon Kintzler did a fine job in that role last season, although a very shaky finish (7.82 ERA in last 12 appearances) makes him far from a sure thing.
New York Yankees – FILLED
The Yankees landed the big prize on the relief market, agreeing with Chapman on a five-year, $86MM deal on Wednesday night. He’ll return to the closer’s role he held during his two-and-a-half month stint with the Yankees in 2016 with Dellin Betances moving back into a setup role.
Philadelphia Phillies – FILLED
Despite having a couple of internal options, last year’s closer Jeanmar Gomez and Hector Neris, who had a breakout season in a setup role, the Phillies signed Joaquin Benoit to a one-year, $7.5MM deal. While Neris will likely have a chance to beat out the 39-year-old Benoit, the Phillies will quietly root for the veteran to win the job and pitch effectively up until they can flip him to a contender in July.
Tony Watson, who had been one of the best setup men in baseball for years, was given a well-deserved promotion to the closer’s role when Melancon was traded to the Nationals in late July. While Watson wasn’t bad, he wasn’t nearly as effective in that role. There has been little buzz, however, about how the Pirates will improve their roster this offseason. In fact, Watson is said to be available on the trade market.
San Francisco Giants – FILLED
Melancon to the Giants was one of the most popular offseason predictions. A seemingly perfect fit doesn’t always come to fruition, however, and the Giants weren’t the only team with heavy interest in the three-time All-Star. But in this instance, the rumors became reality when the 31-year-old Melancon agreed to a four-year, $62MM deal on the first day of the Winter Meetings.
Shawn Kelley isn’t a bad option to replace Melancon. Given a chance to close while Jonathan Papelbon was on the disabled list, he was 6-for-8 in save opportunities and had a ridiculous 30 strikeouts and two walks in 16.2 innings. The bigger question might be whether Blake Treinen can capably replace Kelley as the primary setup man.
Regardless, adding one more reliable late-inning arm to the mix can only help. Like the Dodgers, the Nationals have a lot of money invested throughout their roster and extremely high expectations. Failing to solidify their bullpen this offseason could be disastrous.
Free Agent Options
Kenley Jansen: The Marlins are expected to be the most aggressive bidder. If that’s the case, the Dodgers and Nationals won’t have a chance unless Jansen will take less to play for the better team.
Greg Holland: Despite missing all of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Holland is in a good position with so many teams looking for a closer. His velocity was down in a recent showcase, but he appeared healthy and teams certainly remember how dominant he was prior to his injury. Ideally, he’d be eased in as a setup man. Certain teams might not have that luxury, though.
Neftali Feliz: At age 22, Feliz was an All-Star closer and the AL Rookie of the Year with the Rangers back in 2010. His career was derailed by injuries, however, and he wasn’t close to the same pitcher after returning to health. Until 2016, that is. Not surprisingly, the Pirates were able to bring out the best in the 28-year-old, who posted a 3.52 ERA with excellent peripheral stats (6.7 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, 10.2 K/9) in a setup role.
Brad Ziegler: The 37-year-old sidearmer isn’t the prototypical closer. He gets the job done, though, with an array of deceptive pitches, including an 83-MPH sinker. Last season, he posted a career high 7.7 K/9 with only two homers allowed in 68 innings.
Santiago Casilla: Things didn’t end well with the Giants as Casilla imploded down the stretch. But his long track record of success is difficult to ignore. He’s had a 2.42 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in seven seasons with San Francisco.
Sergio Romo: Romo dominates right-handed hitters and can be vulnerable against lefties, making him a better fit as a setup man. He did have success as a closer, however, from 2012-14 and has a ton of playoff experience.
Jonathan Papelbon: For close to four months in 2016, Papelbon’s performance wasn’t a problem for the first-place Nationals. He had a 2.56 ERA and 19 saves in 21 chances through 32 appearances. But after giving up eight runs over his next five appearances, he was released. While he had interest from other teams later in the season, he chose not to sign due to “his own personal reasons”. It’s unlikely he’ll get anything more than a minor league deal with a contender. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise, though, if he were given a chance to win a closer’s job with a non-contender who can flip him prior to the trade deadline.
Trade Options
David Robertson, White Sox: It’s clear that the White Sox are selling off any player with value and Robertson, despite being owed $25MM over the next two seasons, is a hot name on the trade market. He’s blown seven saves in each of the past two seasons. His walk rate skyrocketed last season while his strikeout rate dipped. Still, he’s got a long track record of success and his numbers, while not nearly as dominant as they’ve been in the past, were still solid.
Alex Colome, Rays: Selling high on Colome after his breakout season isn’t a bad idea in this market. They’ll be smart to find out how desperate the Dodgers and/or Nationals will become if they’re unable to sign Jansen.
Zach Britton, Orioles: It’s unlikely that Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette is actively shopping Britton, one of the most dominant closer’s in baseball. But he’s admitted that there’s a lot of interest, which comes as no surprise. He should set the price extremely high and not come down. In this market, there’s a chance that a team will be desperate enough to meet his demands.
Brandon Maurer, Padres: Maurer hasn’t been involved in rumors, but all indications are that the Padres are willing to listen on any player. In Maurer’s case, he has three years left of team control, an electric arm and did an effective job as the team’s closer after Rodney was traded.
Nate Jones, White Sox: Robertson has the experience and reputation, but it’s very likely that teams looking for late-inning bullpen help are just as interested, if not more, in Jones. Not only did he have an excellent season (2.29 ERA, 6.1 H/9, 1.9 BB/9, 10.2 K/9), he also has a very team-friendly contract that runs through 2021.
Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson, Athletics: As unpredictable as the A’s can be, they don’t appear to be in position to make big improvements to a team that lost 93 games in 2016. Both Doolittle and Madson should draw interest and the A’s should be willing to move them.
Sam Dyson or Jeremy Jeffress, Rangers: Most playoff contenders aren’t likely to subtract a good arm from their bullpen. But in the Rangers’ case, they have more than one good closer and multiple holes to fill on their roster. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if they shopped Dyson or Jeffress in order to add a starting pitcher or a hitter.
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Click here to read the transcript of today’s MLBTR Chat With Jason Martinez: December 7, 2016
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Click here to read MLBTR Chat Transcript With Jason Martinez: November 30, 2016
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Click here to view the transcript from MLBTR Chat With Jason Martinez: November 23, 2016
Free Agent Profile: Carlos Gomez
For the first time in his career, Carlos Gomez enters the offseason as a free agent. He’ll receive far less money than anyone would’ve expected 16 months ago, when he was still in the midst of a terrific three-year run as one of the best outfielders in the game. He’s also in line for more than anyone could’ve anticipated when the Astros, unable to find much interest on the trade market, released him outright in mid-August.
Had Gomez continued to struggle as he had during his time with the Astros, he’d be lucky to find a one-year deal in the $8MM range this offseason. But after slashing .284/.362/.543 with eight homers over his final 130 regular season plate appearances after catching on with the Rangers, it’s a near certainty that the soon-to-be 31-year-old will command a multi-year deal (though he could still opt for a one-year pillow contract).
Pros/Strengths
Gomez’s end-of-season production with Texas is, if nothing else, a firm reminder that the talent is still there. At age 30—he’ll be 31 next month—it’s highly unlikely that his skills have eroded completely. From all indications, Gomez made a few adjustments at the plate once he arrived in Texas with the help of hitting coaches Anthony Iapoce and Justin Mashore. A few weeks into his stint, his confidence was soaring after his first multi-homer game since July 8, 2015 (when he was still with the Brewers):
“Keeping my weight on my back leg allows me stay back and recognize the pitch better and I can drive the ball easier and with less effort. I’ve been doing some stuff I’ve never done in my life. The way I feel, If I’m here for a full season, I think I’m going to do the stuff that I believe that I can do.”
Not only did Gomez finish on a strong note, he also had a very good month with the Astros that has gone unnoticed. In 109 plate appearances from June 5th through July 6th, Gomez slashed .289/.367/.495 with four homers and six doubles. This is not the kind of production you’d expect from a guy who would be released only six weeks later.
While his release and lack of interest from other teams wasn’t unwarranted—he finished his Astros career with only 10 hits in his final 70 plate appearances, including one homer, one walk and 20 strikeouts—it’s hard to overlook the fact that Gomez was an elite hitter during a majority of his final 309 plate appearances. It would be easier to shrug the late run as a sample blip if it weren’t for the fact that he carried a .284/.347/.491 batting line over 2013 and 2014.
Gomez also popped 47 home runs and swiped 74 bases in those two peak seasons; while those days are probably over, he’s still capable of making an impact in both areas. He managed only 25 long balls in the past two seasons, but as noted at the outset, he turned things on once he arrived in Texas. And he stole 18 bases in just 118 games of action last year, suggesting that there’s still life in his legs.
The continued athleticism also speaks to his defensive abilities, which have generally drawn strong reviews from metrics. Gomez probably won’t be viewed any longer as a difference-maker with the glove, but an optimist would note that he graded as a plus center fielder as recently as 2015. He still has a strong throwing arm, so if he can fix some mental mistakes and perhaps show that the drop in range was a bit of a sample blip, Gomez could be a quality up-the-middle defender for another few seasons.
Cons/Weaknesses
The high strikeout and low walk rates that have always been part of Gomez’s game were less magnified when he was hitting more than twenty dingers a year while bouncing all over the outfield and the basepaths. But they seem decidedly less appealing when the other areas aren’t clicking.
In 2016, Gomez had the highest strikeout rate of his career, landing at an even 30%. Previously, he had never gone down by strikes in even a quarter of his plate appearances. There was some improvement after the move to Texas, but Gomez still whiffed at a higher-than-usual level. On the flip side, he also carried a career-best 7.5% walk rate, so the plate discipline numbers weren’t all bad, but the sudden burst of strikeouts rates as a significant concern.
That’s all the more true given that Gomez has struggled more generally with contact. His overall contact rate dropped drastically from 76.5% in 2015 to 69.5% in 2016, so we know that the K’s aren’t just coming on called strikes. 74% was his previous low, established in 2013. And when Gomez did put bat to ball, the barrel wasn’t always squared. He posted a 30.2% hard contact rate in each of the past two seasons, a significant departure from his best years, while coming up with soft contact in over a fifth of his trips to the plate — which is more in line with his numbers during his early career struggles.
There is also evidence of decline on the bases and in the field. While he’s still a useful stolen-base threat, Gomez rated merely as average in overall baserunning and fielding in 2016. That was a significant change from even his lackluster 2015 campaign, during which he was still a top-quality runner and above-average center fielder.
Given the lack of evident physical fall-off, and Gomez’s relative youth, it may be that Gomez’s broader struggles at the plate played a role in his lack of focus in the field. If he can maintain his swing mechanics from the end of the season, there’s reason to believe that Gomez could be able to maintain the focus and confidence necessary to have a good season in all regards — and, hopefully, be a boisterous and positive influence in a clubhouse. But there’s also quite a fair chance that he doesn’t, in which case a signing team may be left holding the bag.
Background
Gomez was born in the Dominican Republic and signed by the Mets as a 16-year-old in July 2002. He was ranked by Baseball America as the 3rd best prospect in the organization when he made his MLB debut in 2007. The following offseason, he was traded to the Minnesota Twins along with pitchers Philip Humber (No. 4 prospect), Deolis Guerra (No. 5) and Kevin Mulvey (No. 6) for two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana.
After two disappointing seasons in Minnesota, Gomez was traded to the Brewers for shortstop J.J. Hardy. It took approximately two-and-a-half more seasons, but the Brewers’ patience paid off when the raw potential finally turned into on-field production.
Prior to the 2013 season, Gomez inked a four-year, $28.3MM contract extension, which looked like a bargain after he posted back-to-back seasons that earned him NL MVP votes—he came in 9th place in 2013 and 16th place in 2014.
With a season-and-a-half remaining on his deal, the rebuilding Brewers decided to cash in one of their top trade chips prior to the 2015 trade deadline. After a deal fell through that would’ve sent him back to the Mets for Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores—the Mets reportedly backed out because of concerns over Gomez’s hip—he was sent to the Houston Astros with Mike Fiers on July 30th, 2015.
On August 18th, 2016, the Astros released the struggling outfielder. Two days later, he signed a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers and was added to the roster five days later.
Market
It’s a case of “buyer beware” with Gomez, who has the ceiling to be one of the most productive players to sign this offseason and the potential to be one of the biggest busts. Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond also factor into the free agent market, with players like Charlie Blackmon and A.J. Pollock potentially available via trade, but all figure to be much costlier to acquire. (Notably, unlike Fowler and Desmond, Gomez won’t require draft compensation from a signing team.)
Several teams are in need of outfield help, specifically an upgrade in center field. The Rangers have to be the favorite based on their need and Gomez’s comfort level with the organization. They’re more familiar with Desmond, their starting center fielder in 2016, but he’s almost as unpredictable and will almost certainly be more expensive.
Texas certainly won’t be a lone. Organizations that are inclined to take a bit of a risk — contenders and dark horses alike — could well pursue Gomez in earnest. Other teams that are in need of a center fielder include the White Sox, Mets, Athletics, Cardinals and Nationals. The Orioles, Giants and Blue Jays could pursue Gomez as a starting corner outfielder.
Expected Contract
MLBTR predicts that Gomez, our 19th ranked free agent, will land a three-year, $36MM deal with the Rangers, pushing his total earnings for his ages 27-33 seasons to $64.3MM. If his production hadn’t taken a complete nosedive from August 2015 through August 2016, it wouldn’t be a stretch to think he’d currently be receiving top-of-the-market billing. Given his established ceiling as a big leaguer, there’s plenty of potential for creative contract offers, potentially including an opt-out clause that would give Gomez an opportunity to re-enter the market — with the incentive to play well enough to do just that.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
