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Free Agent Stock Watch: Rising Position Players

By Tim Dierkes | April 29, 2013 at 11:30am CDT

Our 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings only go to ten, so many quality players miss the cut.  Here are some position players in contract years who are on the rise as the season's first month draws to a close:

  • John Buck, C.  The Mets' backstop has eight home runs on the season, but a .279 OBP as well.  If his power has returned, perhaps he can ultimately compile a line similar to his .281/.314/.489 performance in 2010, which led to the three-year, $18MM contract with the Marlins.
  • A.J. Pierzynski, C.  Pierzynski is slugging .474 on the young season, a potential hint that last year's power surge wasn't a fluke.  Or at least that he's taking better advantage of his home parks.
  • Mike Napoli, 1B.  Now a full-time first baseman, Napoli's 108 plate appearances are more than a quarter of what he averaged the past two seasons.  If avoiding catching allows Napoli to reach 600 plate appearances (and 100 RBI) for the first time, perhaps he can reinvent himself as an everyday player, silence concerns about his hip, and snag his first multiyear deal.
  • Mark Reynolds, 1B.  Will Reynolds return to 35 home run heights this year with the Indians?  The former strikeout king has quietly pushed his K rate down under 25%, which would be a career first if it holds up.
  • Omar Infante, 2B.  Infante's bat has come alive for perhaps the first time since he joined the Tigers.
  • Michael Young, 3B.  Young has never walked in 8% of his plate appearances in a season, but so far this year he's at 10.2%.  Another season above .300 wouldn't hurt, either.
  • Nate McLouth, LF.  100+ runs seem possible for the Orioles' leadoff hitter, especially if his career-best 15.7% walk and 9% strikeout rates hold up to some degree.  McLouth currently leads the American League with a .455 OBP.
  • Nelson Cruz, RF.  If Cruz reaches 30 home runs for the first time since 2009, he'll be popular in a free agent class light on proven sluggers.
  • Travis Hafner, DH.  A month into the season, Pronk has a line reminiscent of his 2004-06 heyday with the Tribe.  As always, it will be a question of health.
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Free Agent Stock Watch

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The Worst Extensions From Two Offseasons Ago

By Tim Dierkes | April 29, 2013 at 9:54am CDT

More than $1.1 billion across 117 contract years was committed to 32 players with less than six years of Major League service time during the 2010-11 offseason extension period, spanning October 2010 through April 2011.  Ryan Braun, Adrian Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki each signed extensions worth more than $100MM.  Two years removed from this extension period, which contracts now appear the most regrettable?

  • Dan Uggla has provided some value over the past two seasons, hitting 36 home runs in 2011 and drawing a good amount of walks last year.  Still, at .223/.326/.416 since the contract was signed, the Braves' second baseman has fallen short of the level of production that compelled the team to commit five years and $62MM.
  • Chad Billingsley's three-year, $35MM extension didn't look bad when it was signed in March 2011, but it covers 2012-14 and Tommy John surgery will take a big bite out of the righty's innings for the Dodgers.
  • The Marlins' Ricky Nolasco has a career FIP of 3.83 against an ERA of 4.47, so he is probably overvalued by a FIP-based method.  Nolasco is finishing out a three-year, $26.5MM extension, and the Marlins are expected to have to eat money or take back salary in order to move him.
  • Cubs reliever Carlos Marmol signed a three-year, $20MM extension.  Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry guaranteed Marmol's final two arbitration years and also bought a year of free agency for $9.8MM.  Perhaps Marmol was an unhittable strikeout machine in 2010, but he'd also shown a penchant for walking six or seven batters per nine innings.  Once Marmol became just a bit more hittable, the wheels fell off.  
  • With the player coming off a .254/.324/.350 season, was it really necessary to buy out one of Jason Bartlett's free agent years?  Former Padres GM Jed Hoyer did so at a cost of $5.5MM for 2012, only to release the shortstop in August of that year.
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Who’s The Best GM In Baseball?

By Tim Dierkes | April 29, 2013 at 8:18am CDT

The job of a Major League general manager is an extremely demanding one.  Player acquisitions are complicated, from trading with other teams to negotiating with agents.  Beyond working with the rest of the baseball operations staff on transactions and contract issues, the GM must communicate with scouts, coaches, medical staff, and the media, and prepare for the draft.  Our question today: who's the best?  Please note that while some of these people do not technically have the title of GM, they seem to be the team's closest approximation.

Who's the best GM in baseball?
Billy Beane 14.21% (4,178 votes)
Andrew Friedman 8.45% (2,485 votes)
John Mozeliak 8.06% (2,369 votes)
Brian Cashman 6.54% (1,922 votes)
Brian Sabean 6.36% (1,868 votes)
Dave Dombrowski 5.33% (1,567 votes)
Frank Wren 5.18% (1,524 votes)
Ben Cherington 4.78% (1,406 votes)
Alex Anthopoulos 4.65% (1,366 votes)
Jon Daniels 4.55% (1,338 votes)
Walt Jocketty 4.31% (1,266 votes)
Dan Duquette 3.23% (950 votes)
Mike Rizzo 3.21% (943 votes)
Jed Hoyer 2.65% (778 votes)
Sandy Alderson 2.44% (717 votes)
Doug Melvin 1.91% (560 votes)
Terry Ryan 1.63% (480 votes)
Ned Colletti 1.63% (479 votes)
Neal Huntington 1.54% (453 votes)
Ruben Amaro Jr. 1.48% (435 votes)
Jack Zduriencik 1.42% (416 votes)
Jerry Dipoto 1.29% (378 votes)
Jeff Luhnow 1.11% (327 votes)
Kevin Towers 1.09% (321 votes)
Dayton Moore 0.89% (262 votes)
Rick Hahn 0.73% (215 votes)
Chris Antonetti 0.57% (168 votes)
Josh Byrnes 0.32% (94 votes)
Larry Beinfest 0.28% (81 votes)
Bill Geivett 0.16% (47 votes)
Total Votes: 29,393
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Nationals Exercise Mike Rizzo’s 2014 Option

By Tim Dierkes | April 25, 2013 at 3:08pm CDT

The Nationals have exercised their 2014 contract option for GM Mike Rizzo, tweets MLB.com's Bill Ladson, as they continue to work on an extension beyond next season.  Rizzo's current contract also has a club option for 2015.

Rizzo was named the Nationals' interim GM in March 2009, and was hired full-time in August of that year.  In 2012, Rizzo's fourth season at the helm, the team won an MLB-best 98 games.  

For the Nats, Rizzo has drafted Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Drew Storen, and Anthony Rendon among others.  Rizzo's major trades include Mike Morse, Sean Burnett, Wilson Ramos, Gio Gonzalez, and Denard Span.  He's signed free agents such as Jayson Werth, Rafael Soriano, Adam LaRoche, Jason Marquis, Dan Haren, and Edwin Jackson and done significant extensions with Ryan Zimmerman and Gonzalez.

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Stark On Shields, Stanton, Masterson, Fowler

By Tim Dierkes | April 25, 2013 at 2:32pm CDT

Jayson Stark leads his latest column for ESPN with a discussion of the ten managers currently in the last year of their contracts, noting that teams these days are more willing to allow skippers' contracts to expire.  Also from Stark's column:

  • One American League executive would rather give a $100MM contract to James Shields than Zack Greinke, because Greinke sometimes "seems a little disinterested" while Shields is regarded as more of a competitor.  Shields is on track for free agency after the 2014 season, assuming the Royals exercise a club option for about $13.5MM after this season.
  • An NL exec wouldn't give up Travis D'Arnaud or Zack Wheeler for Giancarlo Stanton. 
  • A Justin Masterson–Dexter Fowler trade between the Indians and Rockies "was talked about extensively early in the offseason," according to Stark.  Masterson is under the Indians' control through 2014, while the Rockies control Fowler through 2015.
  • In regard to shortstop Jean Segura, Brewers GM Doug Melvin commented, "I see people talk about the [Jurickson] Profars and even the Dee Gordons. But they never talk about him. He's an exciting player."  Melvin acquired Segura, John Hellweg, and Ariel Pena from the Angels for Greinke last summer.
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Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Dexter Fowler Justin Masterson

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Phillies Notes: Amaro, Utley, Manuel

By Tim Dierkes | April 25, 2013 at 1:30pm CDT

Roy Halladay posted his third consecutive quality start last night against the Pirates, but relievers Antonio Bastardo, Mike Adams, and Jeremy Horst couldn't hold a lead and the Phillies fell to 9-13.  The latest on the club:

  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports spoke to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr., who said, "The next four months are very important for our organization.  We have a lot of potential free agents — Chooch, Chase, Halladay, Michael Young, Delmon Young. Do we want to go younger, or do we move forward with the guys we’ve got  We’re going to have to turn left or right. We have to decide."  The trade deadline is about three months away, at which point the Phillies will be forced to make a choice.  Amaro does, however, think the team's payroll will remain in its current range (around $165MM).
  • The Phillies likely won't trade longtime second baseman Chase Utley, opines ESPN's Buster Olney, but the scribe does find the Orioles and Royals to be great fits.
  • "I plan to keep managing — unless I decide all of a sudden I don't want to do it," manager Charlie Manuel told ESPN's Jayson Stark.  Manuel is in the last year of his contract, but "I don't think the players give two craps about it," Amaro told Stark.
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Projected Super Two Cutoff

By Tim Dierkes | April 25, 2013 at 11:32am CDT

The projected Super Two cutoff is two years and 119 days of Major League service time, according to Ryan Galla of CAA Baseball.  This number is often written as 2.119.  Among the players expected to qualify after the 2013 season: Brandon Belt, Steve Cishek, Andy Dirks, Felix Doubront, Lucas Duda, Tyler Flowers, Charlie Furbush, Eric Hosmer, Lance Lynn, Jake McGee, Michael McKenry, Mike Minor, Chris Nelson, Juan Nicasio, Ben Revere, Pedro Strop, Dayan Viciedo, and Vance Worley.  Lynn's service time will be the same as the projected cutoff, and Doubront will be a day above it.

Players with at least three but less than six years of Major League service are considered arbitration eligible.  Additionally, a player with at least two years but less than three is eligible for arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and ranks in the top 22% in total service in the two-to-three class.  The current collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect December 12th, 2011, raised that Super Two percentage from 17% to 22%.  Bottom line: Super Two players are arbitration eligible four times instead of the usual three.

Previous Super Two cutoffs:

  • 2012: 2.139
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139
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MLBTR Mailbag: Stanton, Harvey, Hamilton

By Tim Dierkes | April 25, 2013 at 10:33am CDT

I answered over 40 questions in my hourlong chat on Tuesday, but there are always some good ones that fall through the cracks.  In this post I'll tackle a few more, mailbag style.

Castellanos, Crosby, Porcello, and Fields for Stanton. Deal? – Will

Will is proposing a package that the Tigers could offer to the Marlins for three-plus years of young slugger Giancarlo Stanton, as fans often do in our chats.  As well-regarded as Castellanos is (#38 on Keith Law's top 100 prospects list for ESPN, and #21 on Baseball America's list), I don't think he's a big enough headliner for a Stanton trade.  Granted they added value with Wade Davis and Elliot Johnson, but the Royals were able to acquire the game's fourth-best prospect, Wil Myers, for two years of righty James Shields.  As for the rest of the proposal, I think the Marlins would like to have Crosby, but he doesn't seem to be the caliber of pitching prospect needed in a Stanton deal.

Why did the Astros pass on Julio Borbon? – Anonymous

The Cubs claimed Borbon off waivers from the Rangers five days ago, with the Astros the one team coming before them in the waiver order.  I think the Astros are committed to giving a full season of at-bats to Chris Carter as the left fielder/designated hitter.  While center fielder Justin Maxwell was not yet injured at the time of the Borbon claim, the Astros had other options in Brandon Barnes and the newly-promoted Robbie Grossman.  Releasing right fielder Rick Ankiel for Borbon seems hasty, plus the team already has a former top prospect in the mix in Fernando Martinez.  They'll also have J.D. Martinez off the DL in a few weeks.  Borbon is 27 years old at this point, and I think his upside is limited.

If you had to pick one to keep for the next five years, who would it be, Matt Harvey or Matt Moore? – Lou

If we're including this season as one of my five years, and money is a factor, Moore will earn $17MM for 2013-17 given the contract he signed in December 2011.  Harvey will be arbitration eligible for the 2016 season, so this five-year window would include his first and second arbitration years.  This is a long-winded way of saying that the money seems about the same even though Moore has a year of service on Harvey.  Ultimately, I would take Harvey.  Although you can't go wrong with either pitcher's stuff, I think Harvey has better control.  And while they're both big strikeout guys, Harvey is likely to be more efficient with his pitches and should go deeper into games.

Is Arte Moreno already regretting the Hamilton signing? And is Pujols going to be a DH for the next 9 years? – Matt E

Josh Hamilton, signed to a five-year, $125MM deal during the offseason, is hitting .225/.281/.350 across his first 89 plate appearances for the Angels.  But you don't have to look any further back than July of last year to find a month from Hamilton in which he posted a sub-.700 OPS.  He followed that up with a .943 OPS in August; he's a streaky hitter.  I don't think Moreno is regretting signing Hamilton — this is not the middle of the pack offense it's been so far.  As for the club's 4.88 ERA, that is more troublesome.  They never did assemble a playoff-caliber pitching staff to go with the offense.

While the term on Hamilton is relatively short, through 2017, the Angels have Pujols under contract through 2021.  He has a $26.5MM average annual value for 2014-21.  Pujols said recently that designated hitter is better for his plantar fasciitis.  While he may be dealing with the foot condition for his entire career, Pujols has proven to be extremely durable, meaning he has weathered many injuries that would have kept other players out longer.  Once his foot pain lessens, I think the 33-year-old has at least two or three more years as a first baseman.

If the Pirates are in contention at the trade deadline again this year, do you expect them to finally make that big splash that they haven't made in the past two seasons? – Nick Cap

In 2011 the Pirates added Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee at the July trade deadline, taking on salary rather than giving up prospects.  They also made under-the-radar pickups of Michael McKenry and Jason Grilli that summer.  Last year, the Bucs added Wandy Rodriguez, Gaby Sanchez, and Travis Snider.  GM Neal Huntington was willing to sacrifice a bit more, surrendering Grossman, Brad Lincoln, and a competitive balance pick in the various trades.  This summer, should the Pirates remain in contention, I think they'll again up the ante on what they're willing to give up.  I would not expect them to trade Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, or Alen Hanson.  But I wonder if the team might decide they have the outfield depth to part with Gregory Polanco, assuming a major difference-maker with control beyond this year becomes available.  

Isn't it time for the Phillies to hold a true fire sale?  Won't be pretty, but this group has no prayer in that division. – Logan

At 9-13, the Phillies are fourth in the NL East with over 86% of their season remaining.  We don't have enough data to draw conclusions, and generally even fringe contenders at least wait until July.  Perhaps Domonic Brown's bat will come alive, or the offense will get a boost from Carlos Ruiz.  We know Cole Hamels will be better, and perhaps Roy Halladay can settle in as a solid No. 3.  Maybe Jonathan Pettibone winds up pitching better than John Lannan would have, and Mike Adams' appearance last night was just a blip.  The Phillies' front office assembled a $160MM team.  There's no harm in laying some groundwork if the team eventually wants to sell off contract year guys like Halladay, Ruiz, Chase Utley, and Michael Young, but they've got about three months to let it ride. 

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Tigers Sign Jose Valverde

By Tim Dierkes | April 24, 2013 at 2:25pm CDT

The Tigers have officially added Jose Valverde to their roster following the signing of a one-year, Major League contract. Valverde's deal reportedly contains a base salary of roughly $2MM with another $3MM available via incentives. The Scott Boras client will serve as the team's closer.

The 35-year-old Valverde initially signed a minor league contract with the club in early April that had a May 5 opt-out clause, but that contract didn't include a Major League portion, so the two sides have since worked out a Major League pact.

Uspw_6686672Valverde is the last of MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents to sign. He rejoins the Tigers' organization after serving as their closer for the past three seasons. Valverde struggled mightily in the 2012 postseason, and the team did not attempt to re-sign him. Aside from picking up the club option on Octavio Dotel, Dombrowski did little with his bullpen over the offseason.  Relief prospect Bruce Rondon was talked up as the team's potential closer, but he was demoted to the minors at the end of Spring Training (he's since been called up). The team entered the season with the dreaded closer-by-commitee but had seen Joaquin Benoit emerge as the primary ninth-inning option prior to the Valverde signing.

Valverde posted a 3.78 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 0.39 HR/9 in 69 innings last year.  He saved 35 games in 40 tries, but saw his strikeout rate plummet from years past.

Valverde's signing marks the conclusion of MLBTR's Free Agent Prediction Contest, and the winner is Josh Larabee with 20 of 50 correct.  I don't think anyone has come close to batting .400 in the past, and Josh won $500 for his excellent prognosticating skills.

Patrick Reusse of 1500 ESPN was the first to break the news of the minor league signing (on Twitter). Following the team's announcement of the Major League contract, MLB.com's Jason Beck wrote that it would be an incentive-based deal, and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports added the salary information (Twitter link).

Charlie Wilmoth and Steve Adams contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Thuuz: A Better Way To Track Your Fantasy Baseball Teams On Mobile

By Tim Dierkes | April 23, 2013 at 5:00pm CDT

Looking for the best way to track your fantasy baseball team on your android and mobile devices? Check out a free app called Thuuz. Thuuz helps sports fans track all of their favorite sports so that they never miss an exciting game. With as many as 15 MLB games occurring simultaneously, Thuuz alerts you of all the most exciting games and performances. Thuuz is awesome for any MLB and sports fan – but it's even sweeter if you're in an MLB fantasy league.

Here's how it works:

Sign up for Thuuz Fantasy Baseball 2013 beta and import your fantasy baseball teams into the app from any of the major fantasy platforms. Along with tracking your favorite teams and exciting games, Thuuz will track games involving your fantasy players and let you know when your players are going off. Thuuz will also tell you if the game is on TV or available online.

What you can expect from Thuuz:

  • See your fantasy rosters, player status and league status on the Thuuz Fantasy tab
  • Scan timely fantasy updates in your Thuuz feed
  • Receive Thuuz fantasy alerts
  • Hot players – when your players reach statistical milestones
  • Scoring position – when pitchers enter the game or batters have RBI opportunities
  • Competition updates – end of the week updates if your match is close
  • Injury alerts – when your players get put on the DL
  • Talk smack in Thuuz to your league competitors
  • Screenshots from the app:

Photo 1 Photo 2

You may already have an app (or two) that you use to track fantasy news – here's how Thuuz complements those apps:

  • Easier to track live sports for BOTH your favorite teams (as a fan) AND your fantasy players
  • Easier for fantasy owners with teams on multiple platforms to track players – Thuuz tracks across multiple sites, which is huge
  • Best in class alerts, including when your fantasy players are on TV

One last thing to that should get you to download Thuuz – Thuuz is running a $5000 Sweeten the Pot Promotion. If you and all the guys in your fantasy league download the app and integrate your fantasy teams, you'll be entered to win $5000 to sweeten the pot of your fantasy league winnings.

Go give Thuuz a download now.

thuuz-download-btn

This is a sponsored post from Thuuz.

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