2014 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
About 23% of the 2013 MLB regular season is complete. It's been almost a month since our last power rankings, and the list has changed quite a bit.
1. Robinson Cano. The spokeswoman for Cano's foundation, Sonia Cruz, was connected to Biogenesis late last month. While MLB will investigate the connection, Cano's long-term value seems unaffected at present. There's nothing new to report on the idea of the Yankees extending Cano midseason.
2. Shin-Soo Choo. Choo ascends to second on the list, as his .451 OBP leads all of baseball. He has a decent chance of topping his career high of 22 home runs, set in 2010, and the Reds' leadoff hitter could also score 120 runs. A qualifying offer is looking very likely for Choo after the season.
3. Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury was amazing in 2011, and good in 2008-09. He's healthy now, and he won't turn 30 until September. He even leads the American League with 12 steals. Still, I had to drop him a spot on the list, because he's still not hitting much. WAR rewards him for his baserunning and for playing center field, but if he finishes anywhere near .257/.311/.365 offensively, a megacontract is not in the offing even with Scott Boras making the pitch.
4. Chase Utley. Utley has played in every game this year, and may be able to reach 150 for the first time since 2009. He may also return to his 30 home run, 100 RBI days, and his timing is excellent.
5. Hunter Pence. Pence holds steady on the list, despite his worst walk rate since '07. OBP-centric teams won't be drawn to him, but the 30-year-old should finish with solid numbers and earn a respectable contract.
6. Brian McCann. McCann made his season debut on May 6th, returning from shoulder surgery, and he jumps two spots on this list. His first six games have gone well, and if he remains healthy and hits at his pre-2012 level for the remainder of the season, he'll be a hot commodity in free agency.
7. Tim Lincecum. Lincecum also jumps up two spots, despite erratic work this year. He's healthy and striking guys out. The skills demonstrated in his first eight starts, walks and all, suggest a 3.72 ERA moving forward. If he ends up with a 3.80 ERA on the season and 200+ strikeouts, Lincecum will be a solid 29-year-old free agent starter. Given Lincecum's superstar past, however, it's difficult to predict what kind of contract is appropriate.
8. Matt Garza. Garza's fourth minor league rehab outing will take place Thursday, as he recovers from a lat strain. In theory, he could make his season debut May 21st in Pittsburgh. If that happens, he could make 13 starts prior to the July 31st trade deadline before the Cubs have to decide whether to make a deal. If they do, the removal of a potential qualifying offer would boost his free agent value.
9. Mark Reynolds. Reynolds is a new addition to the list, with his blazing .279/.368/.598 start. He's tied for the AL lead with 11 home runs. He's looked more like the Reynolds of old in May, but the second 40 home run season of his career remains possible. Age is on his side as well, as he turns 30 in August.
10. A.J. Burnett. I was initially going to give the #10 spot to Josh Johnson, who at one point was ranked as high as #3. But even though he'll turn 37 in January, I can't ignore the fact that Burnett has a 3.34 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 0.73 HR/9 in 258 1/3 innings for the Pirates since the beginning of the 2012 season. He still averages a healthy 92.3 miles per hour on his fastball, and he's basically everything we hope Johnson can be, except seven years older.
Johnson lost his spot on the list, as he's currently on the DL because of soreness in his right triceps muscle. The injury will keep him out of commission for over a month. Roy Halladay has been removed as well, as he'll undergo surgery tomorrow to remove a bone spur and clean up fraying in the labrum and rotator cuff. Neither pitcher should be written off, but they've lost their top ten spots to healthy players. Among those vying to break into the top ten at some point this year: Nelson Cruz, Nate McLouth, Mike Napoli, Curtis Granderson, the resurgent James Loney, Paul Maholm, Ervin Santana, and Hiroki Kuroda.
Texas Notes: Postolos, Ryan, Lewis, Lowe
Having dropped their last five games, the Astros own a .256 winning percentage, easily the worst in baseball. Their new division rivals, the Rangers, are at .632, tied for second in baseball. The two numbers are not unrelated, as the Rangers have won five of six contests against the Astros. The latest on the two Texas clubs:
- The Astros announced yesterday that president and CEO George Postolos resigned. Postolos' role with the Astros had little to do with baseball operations, unlike some other team presidents. Postolos "specializes in franchise acquisition," wrote Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, and his skill set no longer matched with the job description. One of Postolos' tasks involved carriage agreement negotiations, trying to get the Astros and Comcast Sportsnet Houston into Houston homes. CSN Houston is available in "only about 40 percent of Houston's 2.2 million TV homes," writes David Barron of the Houston Chronicle.
- Asked on ESPN's Galloway & Company show yesterday if he has any interest in the Astros' new job opening, Rangers CEO Nolan Ryan replied, "I don't think so." Ryan has not been in contact with Astros owner Jim Crane. There was some springtime drama about Ryan's role with the Rangers, which was resolved in April.
- The Astros are running "extended evaluations" at all three outfield positions, writes Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle. J.D. Martinez, Robbie Grossman, and Jimmy Paredes will hold the starting spots for now, with Justin Maxwell to regain center field when he returns from a fractured left hand. The Astros have already moved Chris Carter to first base and jettisoned Rick Ankiel and Fernando Martinez, though Martinez cleared waivers and remains in the organization.
- Carter, a 26-year-old acquired from Oakland in February as part of the Jed Lowrie trade, is tied for fifth in the league with nine home runs. He also leads all of baseball in strikeouts, however.
- 33-year-old Rangers righty Colby Lewis, a free agent after this season, "has been diagnosed with a mild case of tendinitis in his right triceps muscle" according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. Lewis last pitched in the Majors on July 18th of last year, before undergoing flexor tendon surgery. His current issue is not related to the surgery, and Lewis could make another rehab start next week after receiving an anti-inflammatory injection.
- Rangers long reliever Derek Lowe told Drew Davison of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram he didn't pass the "stats test" when hunting for an offseason job, explaining he leans toward the human element. Apparently mixing stats and scouting, as all teams do, Lowe commented, "If you pump my numbers into the system compared to, let’s say, Tanner Scheppers, of course his stuff is going to outscore my stuff, I’m not naive. He’s a young kid who throws 98 mph with a great breaking ball. Listen, I know I don’t pass the test."
Which Players Will Receive A Qualifying Offer?
Last year, nine players received qualifying offers worth $13.3MM. At least two more would have been likely to receive one had they not been deemed ineligible due to midseason trades. A qualifying offer, if turned down, enables the team losing the free agent to receive a draft pick as compensation. We haven't seen a player accept a qualifying offer yet, but the process is still in its infancy. I've estimated the qualifying offer amount at around $14MM for the 2013-14 offseason. Below, I've drafted an inclusive list of candidates to receive one after the season. In today's poll, please check all whom you expect to receive a qualifying offer. You can click here to view the results.
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Latest On July 2 Players
The July 2nd international signing period is less than two months away. Every team had a $2.9MM bonus pool for 2012-13, but as Baseball America's Ben Badler outlined here, the 2013-14 pools "will be tiered based on reverse order of 2012 major league winning percentage." The Astros, Cubs, and Rockies each have at least $4.2MM to spend, plus teams can trade for additional money. The Twins, Indians, Marlins, and Red Sox each have more than $3MM to spend, while the Royals and Blue Jays are close to that figure. Badler has the latest on ten prospects who are expected to sign for at least $1MM apiece.
- The highest bonus is likely to go to Dominican outfielder Eloy Jimenez, potentially $2.6-2.8MM with the Cubs as the "heavy favorite." The Cubs are also the frontrunners to sign one of the top Venezuelan players, shortstop Gleyber Torres.
- Dominican third baseman Rafael Devers "might be the best hitter on the international market," writes Badler. He's the primary target of the Red Sox. Another contender for the best bat is third baseman Luis Encarnacion, who is most likely to sign with the Phillies.
- The Yankees are the most likely suitor for Leonardo Molina, perhaps the best athlete in the class. He can sign when he turns 16 on August 1st. The Yankees' preliminary bonus pool is reportedly $1,877,900.
- The biggest raw power belongs to Dominican outfielder Micker Zapata, who has been connected to the White Sox and Padres.
- Badler's article has much more information, so be sure to give it a click and a read.
No Contract Between Ducks, Zambrano Yet
May 13: Danny Knobler of CBS Sports writes that Zambrano's name still doesn't appear on the Ducks' roster. Zambrano and the Ducks did indeed reach an agreement, according to Knobler's sources, but a contract has yet to be signed.
May 8: Righty Carlos Zambrano has signed with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League, tweets Chris Cotillo of CLNS Radio. MLB.com's Carrie Muskat has confirmed the signing (also via Twitter).
As Ducks president and GM Michael Pfaff recently explained to MLBTR's Zach Links, the team prioritizes winning but wants to "help players with their careers, help them continue their careers, and help them get back to the major leagues." That's surely Zambrano's plan. The 31-year-old righty joined the Marlins via trade in January 2012, posting a 4.49 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 5.1 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, and 49.1% groundball rate in 132 1/3 innings (20 starts and 15 relief appearances). Zambrano, a three-time All-Star, was a workhorse for the Cubs from 2003-07, averaging 215 innings per season.
From the '07 fight with teammate Michael Barrett, the five-year, $91.5MM contract signed that year, all kinds of odd ailments, the no-hitter in '08 against the Astros at Miller Park, the '09 on-field tantrum that led to a six-game suspension, problems with Cubs management, the move to the bullpen and back, the issue with Derrek Lee in '10 that led to a team-mandated suspension, his placement on the disqualified list in '11, to the salary dump trade to Miami, Z's final years as a Cub were tumultuous to say the least.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Baseball Trade Rumors iPhone/iPad App
Want to stay up-to-date on all the rumors and transactions involving your favorite team or player? At the office, you can simply pull up MLBTradeRumors.com and refresh constantly, with your fingers on alt-tab as you read so you can bounce to a spreadsheet when your boss walks by (unless your boss is a baseball fan). But what about when you're in a meeting or at lunch? You need our Baseball Trade Rumors iPhone/iPad app!
For less than the cost of that lunch, just $2.99, the Baseball Trade Rumors iPhone/iPad app can be yours for life, including future upgrades. The app presents all of the latest MLBTR stories, ad-free and mobile friendly, with the ability to filter by teams or transactions. You can also enjoy custom push notifications, where you select your favorite teams and/or players and receive alerts when new stories are posted including them.
Not an Apple person? Check out our Android app instead.
Free $400 Fantasy Baseball Contest From DraftStreet
Pick one player from each of eight tiers and you've got a shot at part of the $400 prize pool in DraftStreet's latest MLBTR freeroll! You've got nothing to lose by signing up and making your picks, as this game has no entry fee. You'll be competing based on the stats your eight players accumulate in Friday's night games.
My team leans toward multi-talented offensive players who can steal a few bases, such as Ryan Braun, Chase Headley, Andrew McCutchen, Austin Jackson, and Alex Rios. I also made sure not to get drawn in by small samples – Josh Willingham has big power, even if he hasn't shown it in May. Let us know about your strategy in the comments. Check out the scoring categories in the rules section. A screenshot of my roster:
Take five minutes to make your picks for Friday's games, and you've got a shot at the $400 prize pool! Registration closes at 6pm central time on Friday. Please note that this post is a paid advertisement by DraftStreet.
Minor Moves: Gonzalez, Wood, Red Sox
Today's minor moves…
- The Yankees have acquired minor league shortstop Alberto Gonzalez from the Cubs in exchange for a player to be named later or cash, tweets Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger. Gonzalez, who first appeared in the big leagues with the Yankees back in 2007, has seen limited MLB action over the last two years for Texas and Chicago. Over 989 career plate appearances, he has a .241/.279/.319 line.
- The Orioles acquired third baseman Brandon Wood from the Royals for cash considerations, tweets Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Wood will report to Triple-A Norfolk. The 28-year-old is hitting .264/.304/.396 in 56 Triple-A plate appearances. Wood, then with the Angels, was ranked as the third-best prospect in baseball after the '06 season by Baseball America, which said he profiled as a perennial All-Star. He's received 751 big league plate appearances with the Angels and Pirates, posting a .186/.225/.289 line.
- The Red Sox will promote reliever Jose De La Torre, GM Ben Cherington said today on WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show. The Red Sox transferred reliever Joel Hanrahan, who has at least a flexor muscle strain, to the 60-day DL to open a 40-man roster spot for De La Torre.
- Kyle Kaminska, a righty who was with Boston's High A affiliate, has retired according to Evan Lepler on his MLB.com blog. The 24-year-old had joined the organization in December as the player to be named later in the Zach Stewart deal with Pittsburgh.
Astros Release Rick Ankiel
The Astros released outfielder Rick Ankiel, tweets Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle. The team had designated him for assignment Monday.
Ankiel, 33, had an all-or-nothing approach this year that led to five home runs and 35 strikeouts in 65 plate appearances. A former second-round pick of the Cardinals, Ankiel finished second in the 2000 Rookie of the Year voting as a pitcher but later reinvented himself as a slugging outfielder in 2007. A left-handed hitter, he has a career slugging percentage of .445 against righties.
We're still awaiting word on outfielder Fernando Martinez, who was designated by the Astros at the same time as Ankiel.
Draft Notes: Mock Draft, Team Preferences
The MLB draft is less than a month away, with the Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, and Indians taking the first five picks. The latest:
- Stanford righty Mark Appel, Oklahoma righty Jonathan Gray, San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant, prep righty Kohl Stewart, and Nevada righty Braden Shipley are the first five picks in Jim Callis' first mock draft for Baseball America, in which he takes a stab at the entire first round. The article is chock full of great info.
- Callis hears rumors that the Twins could cut a deal with high school catcher Reese McGuire at #4, spending heavily further down in the draft.
- The Twins, Indians, and Royals are searching for pitching, writes Callis. The Mets "appear to be targeting college bats."
- In case you missed it, Kiley McDaniel of Scout.com posted his first mock draft Tuesday.
- More clubs are drafting for organizational need these days, writes ESPN's Jason Churchill, which could lead to a first round "dominated by hitters."