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Emilio Bonifacio Beats Marlins In Arbitration

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Emilio Bonifacio beat the Marlins in their arbitration hearing, tweets Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. The Wasserman Media Group client will be paid $2.2MM in 2012 instead of the Marlins' $1.95MM figure.

Like the Rays, Nationals, White Sox, Blue Jays, Braves, and Astros (prior to Jeff Luhnow), the Marlins have a policy of going to hearings once the arbitration figure exchange deadline is reached.  This year they also lost a hearing to Anibal Sanchez.  The Marlins lost to Cody Ross in 2010, Dan Uggla in 2009, and Miguel Cabrera in 2007.  The team beat Kevin Gregg in '07.  Keep in mind, though, that if the Marlins had settled at the midpoint in all six cases, they only would have saved $1,562,500 in total.  They might have gained more than that amount if their "file and trial" policy compelled other players to settle at team-friendly amounts out of fear for going to a hearing.

This year the clubs and players are even at 2-2, with the teams having beaten John Lannan and Jeff Niemann.  14 arbitration eligible players remain unsigned, though in recent years we have not seen more than eight total hearings.  Check out MLBTR's arbitration tracker here.

Comparing Cruz, Jones, Gordon In Arbitration

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Arbitration eligible outfielders Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, and Alex Gordon all remain unsigned.  As outfielders with at least four years of big league service and less than five, their cases are tied together.  Let's take a closer look.

Cruz and Jones submitted near-identical salaries of $7.5MM and $7.4MM, respectively.  The Orioles value Jones less than the Rangers value Cruz, submitting a figure $500K below Cruz's $5.5MM.  It's no coincidence MLB scheduled the players' arbitration hearings for the same day, as that way a win by one can't benefit another.  Should one of the two reach an agreement soon, the salary figure might be kept under wraps until the other's is determined.  Gordon's hearing is scheduled one day earlier, but they're reportedly close to an agreement.  The Cruz-Jones argument can be tailored either way — Cruz has more career power, but Jones is more durable and plays a premium position.

Gordon is valued below Cruz and Jones by all parties, as he submitted $5.45MM and the Royals $4.15MM.  All things considered Gordon had the best platform year, topping Cruz and Jones easily in batting average, on-base percentage, runs, and stolen bases while posting similar home run and RBI totals.  He's further boosted by a Gold Glove, so one separator here has to be the players' career numbers and related previous year earnings.  Though Gordon wins in career OBP, his home run and RBI totals lag well behind the other two players.

Looking at past precedent, how strong are the cases of Cruz, Jones, and Gordon?

  • Cruz wants a $3.85MM raise, while the Rangers are trying for the same $1.85MM one Carlos Quentin received after the 2010 season.  Using Quentin's numbers through 2010, Cruz has better career numbers and a similar platform year.  Ryan Ludwick and Josh Willingham received $1.75MM and $1.65MM raises in similar situations, though Cruz trumps all in career power numbers.  However, Cruz does not have an advantage over where Luke Scott was after 2010, and Scott received a $2.35MM bump.  Scott seems to push the argument in the Rangers' favor, except that Scott spent much of 2010 at designated hitter.  Another point in Cruz's favor, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith mentioned to me, is his fantastic postseason production.
  • Jones wants a $4.15MM increase.  He's short on career home runs compared to his arbitration peers, so maybe his argument will be based on his ability to play center field regularly and a better platform year than B.J. Upton's 2010.
  • Gordon seeks a $4.05MM raise.  Given his batting average, run total, and Gold Glove award, he had the best platform year of his peers.  He also has the worst career power numbers, plus the Royals filed a million bucks higher than the Rangers and Orioles did for their guys.
  • We always hear that arbitration hearings are a crapshoot, and perhaps none of these players will end up going to one.  However, the arguments seem to favor the teams in the cases of Cruz, Jones, and Gordon, who are seeking to top Hunter Pence's $3.5MM raise despite inferior numbers.  Additionally, Matt Swartz's arbitration projections came in below the midpoint for all three players.

Introducing HoopsRumors.com

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We are proud to announce our new NBA rumors site, Hoops Rumors!  Luke Adams and his team of NBA fanatics are covering rumors and transactions 365 days a year with the style, timeliness, and analysis you've come to love on MLBTR.  The team has been quietly covering all the latest for the past week, so there is plenty of reading material. 

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The NBA trade deadline is just over a month away, so head over to Hoops Rumors to get the latest trustworthy information from around the web on Dwight Howard, Chris Kaman, Stephen Jackson and more.  If you like what you see, please bookmark the site, follow us on Twitter, and like us on Facebook.

Latest On Yoenis Cespedes

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Yoenis Cespedes is in the U.S. and plans to meet with the Marlins tomorrow. The latest on the Cuban outfielder, who may have a deal by the time Spring Training begins:

  • Marlins president David Samson hinted to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com that Miami might be ready to make its move. “I don’t know how tomorrow will go. But it would not surprise me if it ended with an offer,” Samson said (all Twitter links). Samson said the Marlins will go to lunch with Cespedes tomorrow and show him their new ballpark. The Marlins will "do something spectacular" for Cespedes, Samson said.
  • Cespedes told reporters he'd like to play in Miami, Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald tweets. MLB.com's Joe Frisaro hears the Marlins are the frontrunner at this point (Twitter link).
  • An American League source tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel that the Marlins are likely to sign Cespedes.
  • Cespedes is arriving in Miami today to meet with Katz, tweets Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post, and he's expected to meet with the Marlins tomorrow for a ballpark tour.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that executives from other teams may visit Cespedes later in Miami as well.  The Orioles are planning a scouting trip to see Cespedes within seven to ten days, tweets Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun.
  • As of Sunday, Cespedes still had not been unblocked by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, even though he's a free agent and can negotiate with MLB teams.  Katz explained, "I think we can come to terms with no execution of contract and no playing."  Katz is "reasonably confident" Cespedes will be signed in time for camp this year.
  • Cespedes awaits face-to-face meetings with his agents and interested teams, writes Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.  The goal is to have Cespedes in big league camp by the third week of February.  Industry sources tell Levine bidding could reach $60MM over six years.  In January, Cespedes named the Cubs as his most interested suitor.

Roy Oswalt Rumors: Tuesday

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 The latest on free agent righty Roy Oswalt…

Yankees Sign Bill Hall

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3:24pm: Hall will earn a base salary of $600K in the Major Leagues and can earn more incentives based on plate appearances, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.  Hall can opt out of his deal if he isn't on the Major League roster on April 4th.

2:51pm: The Yankees have signed utility infielder Bill Hall, based on his tweet, "IT'S OFFICIAL IM A YANKEE!!!!!!!! #IwannaRing!!!!"  He signed a minor league deal, tweets Erik Boland of Newsday.  Hall is a client of Gaylord Sports Management.

Hall, 32, posted a .211/.261/.314 line in 199 plate appearances for the Astros and Giants last year, playing mostly second base.  In more of a utility role for the 2010 Red Sox, Hall managed 18 home runs in 382 plate appearances.  Hall works out with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long during the offseason.

Dodgers Sign Jamey Wright

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The Dodgers signed reliever Jamey Wright to a minor league deal with a spring training invite, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times.  Wright is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Wright, 37, posted a 3.16 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, and 58.2% groundball rate in 68 1/3 innings for the Mariners last year.  Among those with 60 innings, that groundball rate ranked fourth in the American League.

Wright will battle other Dodgers non-roster right-handed relief invitees such as Jose Ascanio, Angel Guzman, Shane Lindsay, Fernando Nieve, and Ryan Tucker for long relief work.  Here's a look at the remaining free agent right-handed relievers.

Draft Pick Currency

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The Tigers used "draft pick currency" in acquiring Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins in 2007 using '05 first-round pick Cameron Maybin and '06 first rounder Andrew Miller, agent Scott Boras noted in January.  Boras feels that the Tigers were ahead of the curve in that regard.  Let's take a look at other first-round picks who were dealt within approximately three years of being drafted in recent years.

  • November 2007: Twins trade 2005 first-rounder Matt Garza with Eduardo Morlan and Jason Bartlett to Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie.  GM: Bill Smith.
  • January 2008: Braves trade 2005 first-rounder Joey Devine with Jamie Richmond to the Athletics for Mark Kotsay.  GM: Frank Wren.
  • July 2008: Red Sox trade 2005 first-rounder Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss to Pirates, Dodgers sent 2006 first-rounder Bryan Morris and Andy LaRoche to Pirates, Red Sox sent Manny Ramirez to Dodgers, Pirates sent Jason Bay to Red Sox.  GMs: Theo Epstein, Ned Colletti.
  • July 2008: Phillies trade 2006 first-rounder Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, and Matthew Spencer to Athletics for Joe Blanton.  GM: Pat Gillick.
  • July 2008: Brewers trade 2007 first-rounder Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Rob Bryson, and Zach Jackson to Indians for C.C. Sabathia.  GM: Doug Melvin.
  • June 2009: Cardinals trade 2006 first-rounder Chris Perez and Jess Todd to Indians for Mark DeRosa.  GM: John Mozeliak.
  • July 2009: Giants trade 2007 first-rounder Tim Alderson to Pirates for Freddy Sanchez.  GM: Brian Sabean.
  • July 2009: Red Sox trade 2007 first-rounder Nick Hagadone, 2008 first-rounder Bryan Price, and Justin Masterson to Indians for Victor Martinez.  GM: Theo Epstein.
  • July 2009: Cardinals trade 2008 first-rounder Brett Wallace, Shane Peterson, and Clayton Mortensen to Athletics for Matt Holliday.  The A's traded Wallace several months later, and then the Blue Jays traded him in July 2010.
  • July 2009: White Sox trade 2007 first rounder Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Jake Peavy.  GM: Kenny Williams.
  • December 2009: Mariners trade 2006 first-rounder Brandon Morrow to Blue Jays for Johermyn Chavez and Brandon League.  GM: Jack Zduriencik.
  • December 2009: Diamondbacks trade 2006 first-rounder Max Scherzer and 2008 first-rounder Daniel Schlereth to Tigers, Tigers sent Curtis Granderson to Yankees, Tigers sent Edwin Jackson to Diamondbacks, Yankees sent Phil Coke and Austin Jackson to Tigers, Yankees sent 2006 first-rounder Ian Kennedy to Diamondbacks.  GMs: Josh Byrnes, Brian Cashman.
  • December 2009: Phillies trade 2006 first-rounder Kyle Drabek, 2007 first-rounder Travis d'Arnaud, and Michael Taylor to Blue Jays for Roy Halladay and cash.  GM: Ruben Amaro, Jr.
  • December 2009: Mariners trade 2007 first-rounder Phillippe Aumont, J.C. Ramirez, and Tyson Gillies to Phillies for Cliff Lee.  GM: Jack Zduriencik.
  • July 2010: Rangers trade 2007 first-rounder Michael Main and Chris Ray to Giants for Bengie Molina.  GM: Jon Daniels.
  • July 2010: Rangers trade 2008 first-rounder Justin Smoak, 2007 first-rounder Blake Beavan, Matthew Lawson, and Josh Lueke to Mariners for Cliff Lee, Mark Lowe, and cash.  GM: Jon Daniels.
  • December 2011: Reds trade 2008 first-rounder Yonder Alonso, 2010 first rounder Yasmani Grandal, Edinson Volquez, and 2009 first-rounder Brad Boxberger to Padres for Mat Latos.  GM: Walt Jocketty.
  • December 2010: Brewers trade 2008 first-rounder Brett Lawrie to Blue Jays for Shaun Marcum.  GM: Doug Melvin.
  • December 2010: Red Sox trade 2008 first-rounder Casey Kelly, 2009 first rounder Reymond Fuentes, Anthony Rizzo, and Eric Patterson to Padres for Adrian Gonzalez.  GM: Theo Epstein.
  • July 2011: Tigers trade 2010 first-rounder Chance Ruffin, Francisco Martinez, Charlie Furbush, and Casper Wells to Mariners for Doug Fister and David Pauley.  GM: Dave Dombrowski.
  • July 2011: Indians trade 2010 first-rounder Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joseph Gardner, and Matt McBride to Rockies for Ubaldo Jimenez.  GM: Chris Antonetti.
  • July 2011: Giants trade 2009 first rounder Zack Wheeler to Mets for Carlos Beltran.  GM: Brian Sabean.

Bottom line: if the Cubs reach a point of contending under Epstein, recent first-round picks should keep their bags packed.  Melvin, Sabean, and the Phillies' brass have been aggressive in trading first-round picks.  Zduriencik moved a couple of first-rounders when the Mariners were closer to contention, although they were not his draft picks.

As for literal draft pick currency, 13 teams are eligible for the first competitive balance draft pick lottery this year.  The picks given for this lottery can be traded, but only once by a team, only during the regular season, and not for cash.

Mariners Sign Hong-Chih Kuo

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TUESDAY: Kuo's $500K guarantee increases to $1MM on the active roster, and he can earn another $2.25MM in incentives, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

MONDAY: The Mariners signed lefty reliever Hong-Chih Kuo to a one-year, Major League contract, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times.  Kuo has passed his physical, notes ESPN's Jayson Stark.  The Mariners will have to create a spot on the 40-man roster for Kuo, who is represented by Octagon.

Kuo, 30, allowed an earned run per inning in a difficult 2011 season with the Dodgers.  With a 1.96 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.37 HR/9, and 5.8 H/9 in 170 innings, Kuo had been one of the game's most dominant relievers over the three prior seasons when healthy.  He had a DL stint for an anxiety disorder last season, and in October endured his fifth career elbow surgery.  

Kuo, a native of Taiwan, will again team up with Mariners offseason acquisition George Sherrill.  They'll presumably be setting up closer Brandon League.

After Kuo was non-tendered by the Dodgers in December, they continued to show interest, as did a few other unknown West Coast teams.  As our free agent tracker shows, Mike Gonzalez and Arthur Rhodes are now the top available lefty relievers.

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