Elias Rankings Update
After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2010-11 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics. Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2010 season running through August 22nd, 2011. Click here to go to the rankings directly if they don't appear below.
We've updated the rankings to reflect Kelly Johnson landing with the Blue Jays and Aaron Hill with the Diamondbacks. Hill maintains his Type B status, though he's close to none. Johnson climbs to Type A status, though he could easily fall to B. Johnson accepting arbitration wouldn't be all that desirable, and I can see that happening if he's a Type A, so it's not necessarily true that the Blue Jays made this trade to take a shot at two draft picks.
Nationals Don’t Intend To Pursue Prince Fielder
The Nationals don't intend to go after Prince Fielder once he reaches free agency, a team source told MLB.com's Bill Ladson. The primary reason is that first basemen Michael Morse and Adam LaRoche are already under team control for 2012. Instead, the Nats may be more focused on finding a center fielder and a leadoff hitter.
Earlier this month Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com expressed similar feelings about the Nationals sitting out the Fielder bidding. He provided additional reasons: GM Mike Rizzo loves defense at first base, and the team might need to earmark money for a future Ryan Zimmerman extension.
Now, as I mentioned on Monday, having LaRoche under contract for a year at $8MM wouldn't be a huge roadblock if the Nationals wanted Fielder, and Morse could play left field. Scott Boras has been cozy with Rizzo in recent years, and the agent will probably try his damnedest to get them involved on Fielder. However, if the two beat writers are correct and the Nationals don't get involved, that's one less team capable of doing a $150MM+ contract in a market that probably already excludes the Red Sox, Yankees, and many others.
Rockies Claim Wandy Rodriguez
2:42pm: The Rockies won the claim on Rodriguez, tweets Rosenthal, and talks are ongoing. The Rockies are particularly low on starting pitching depth at the moment, and may have the idea of another miracle playoff run in the back of their minds. They're currently 8.5 games out. Otherwise, Rodriguez would provide veteran depth for the next few seasons with Ubaldo Jimenez gone. As Rosenthal notes, the Rockies aren't going to want to give up anything of value if they're to take on Rodriguez's entire contract.
1:12pm: Lefty Wandy Rodriguez has been claimed on waivers by an unknown team, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Currently Rodriguez is owed just $1.38MM for the rest of this season, plus $36MM for 2012-14 assuming he exercises a player option for the final season. The Astros have the option of dumping that commitment on the other club, working out a trade with the team, or pulling Rodriguez back.
Rodriguez, 32, has a 3.31 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, and 45.3% groundball rate in 147 innings this year.
Diamondbacks Acquire Hill, McDonald For Johnson
The Diamondbacks acquired second baseman Aaron Hill and shortstop John McDonald from the Blue Jays for Kelly Johnson, tweets John Gambadoro Sports 620 KTAR. Both teams confirmed the trade in a press release.
Johnson, a favorite of Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, has slumped to .209/.287/.412 in 481 plate appearances this year. He has $1.16MM remaining on his contract and projects as a high Type B in the National League. He's probably still at least a B in the AL, which has to be Toronto's motivation in acquiring the impending free agent.
Hill, 29, has been worse than Johnson at .225/.270/.313 in 429 plate appearances. His $8MM club option is expected to be declined after the season, at which point he'd be a Type B free agent. I'm not sure what Anthopoulos gets out of the swap. Maybe he thinks Johnson will be a Type A and will decline arbitration, or maybe he's just more inclined to offer arbitration to Johnson than Hill. Or, maybe he hopes to extend Johnson cheaply. Hill has about $990K remaining on his contract. McDonald, a defensive whiz, has about $300K remaining, so the money is pretty close.
From Arizona's point of view, McDonald can pitch in at shortstop with Willie Bloomquist, since Stephen Drew is out for the season. As for liking Hill over Johnson, perhaps GM Kevin Towers feels a change of scenery will help, or he prefers Hill's defense.
The Diamondbacks and Blue Jays last matched up on a trade three years ago, when the Toronto acquired David Eckstein for Chad Beck.
Arbitration Eligibles: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles kick off our series taking a look at players who will be arbitration eligible for 2012.
- First time: Jo-Jo Reyes, Brad Bergesen, Robert Andino, Alfredo Simon
- Second time: Adam Jones, Felix Pie, Jim Johnson
- Third time: Jeremy Guthrie
- Fourth time: Luke Scott, Jeremy Accardo
Projected potential Super Twos such as Bergesen and Simon may not end up with enough service time to be arbitration eligible. If the projected 2.145 cutoff holds up, Bergesen will be arbitration eligible and Simon will not.
Scott had shoulder surgery in July and is a likely non-tender. Pie is possible given his terrible offensive season, as are potential first-timers Eyre, Reyes, and Bergesen. Accardo is another non-tender candidate.
The key cases for the Orioles are Jones, Guthrie, and Johnson. Jones should exceed $6MM. Guthrie is in lightly charted waters as a third-time starting pitcher, and the cases of 2012 peers like John Danks, Matt Garza, and Joe Saunders will be relevant here. $9-10MM is possible. Johnson will be coming off a solid season, but still figures to come in under $2MM.
Limited Free Agent Market For Bats
Teams looking to add offense this offseason will face limited options. A look at the ten available middle-of-the-order type bats:
- Lance Berkman, 1B/OF: By most measures, Berkman has been one of the ten best offensive players in baseball this year at age 35. He's played in 87% of the Cardinals' games and has been consistently productive. He's got a list of three or four teams, headed by the Cards, and would consider retirement if he's "not thrilled with the opportunities." Though a multiyear deal would likely be available, Berkman is fine with another one-year contract. I have to imagine he'll get $12MM or more.
- David Ortiz, DH: Ortiz, who turns 36 in November, has been nearly as good as Berkman, and he's handled lefties well. Reportedly the Red Sox have yet to discuss a new deal with him. It's not clear how adamant each side will be about their stance on a multiyear contract. But the general expectation is that Ortiz returns to Boston.
- Prince Fielder, 1B: Most expect Fielder to look for Mark Teixeira money or beyond, though yesterday I was able to come up with reasons each of the 30 teams might balk at signing him. He'll land somewhere, but Scott Boras may need a team to bid against itself to reach Teixeira heights.
- Albert Pujols, 1B: Pujols now leads the National League with 31 home runs, so his off year is relative. His walk rate is down significantly though, which could give some teams pause before making one of the ten largest commitments in baseball history, if not one of the three biggest. The Cardinals have first crack at signing him, and there's a good chance they get something done.
- Carlos Beltran, RF: Beltran has been healthy and effective this year, outside of a DL stint for a strained hand shortly after his trade to the Giants. A strong finish could result in a three-year deal, though Beltran does turn 35 in April. He figures to get more than $10MM per year.
- Michael Cuddyer, RF/1B: Cuddyer has alternated good and mediocre seasons, a trend his agent will have to downplay since this is one of the good years. Cuddyer, 33 in March, should get a three-year deal with a salary similar to this year's $10.5MM.
- Aramis Ramirez, 3B: Ramirez should benefit from being the only viable starting option at third base on the market. He was headed toward a possible extension with the Cubs, but with Jim Hendry being fired he's going to take a step back and see what's out there. His $16MM option is mutual in nature. The 33-year-old should be able to secure a deal similar to my Cuddyer estimate, maybe better.
- Josh Willingham, LF: Willingham, 32, started out slow for the Athletics but has a .277/.374/.606 line with 12 home runs in 163 plate appearances since July 1st. Injuries have made him something of a 120 game guy, so a two-year deal for around $16MM seems feasible. Willingham projects as a Type A free agent, and seems like someone who might accept arbitration if the A's offer.
- Jason Kubel, RF/DH: At 29, Kubel has age on his side compared to most free agents. He missed almost two months with a foot injury this year but previously had been durable. He could be a popular free agent, with four years possible, but his stock will be hurt if he climbs to Type A status and turns down an arbitration offer from the Twins, thereby costing his new team a draft pick.
- Carlos Pena, 1B: Pena, 33, has been aided slightly by his first crack at the National League. He's a useful hitter, but a two-year deal at $10MM plus is a tough sell even for Scott Boras for a perennial .200 hitter.
There are other free agents – Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are difference-makers and Casey Kotchman is having a nice year – but the middle-of-the-order bat market boils down to the ten I named above. Berkman, Ortiz, Fielder, and Pujols all have limited markets due to preference, price tag, or in Ortiz's case, the fact that he can't play the field. It's a good time to be Beltran, Cuddyer, Ramirez, Willingham, Kubel, Pena, or Kotchman. Surprises are possible, but the trade market offers little beyond perhaps Carlos Quentin.
Top Starters Eschew Free Agency
Boras Corporation client Carlos Gonzalez bucked the agency's trend in January, signing a seven-year, $80MM deal instead of going to free agency as soon as possible. Publicly, Scott Boras said, "I was very much on board with this decision," though the agent made sure to show CarGo what he was missing. Since the deal was a record contract for a two-plus player, Boras at least had that feather in his cap.
Angels righty Jered Weaver is not a two-plus player; he has five-plus years of service time and had to get past only the 2012 season before a likely $100MM+ free agent deal. Instead he signed for five years and $85MM. One way to look at that is since Weaver could have gotten $13MM in arbitration for '12, he gave up four free agent years for $18MM apiece, without negotiating on the open market. That is decidedly not the Boras Way.
Talking to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Boras explained, "He knows his value. He had close to 30 illustrations given to him to understand his value. He knows not becoming a free agent would cost him millions and millions of dollars. But the necessity to stay home was compelling." Nightengale estimates a potential $60MM loss for Weaver. For a 30-year-old ace, $23MM per year over six free agent seasons would have been possible, and $24-25MM over seven may have been within reach depending on various factors.
Boras acknowledged that with so many top starting pitchers locked up, the free agent demand will be greater and teams will be aggressive. For the upcoming offseason, that means huge deals for C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson; I think Wilson can reach $100MM. Guys like Edwin Jackson and Hisashi Iwakuma may be lifted up as well.
Following the 2012 season, Matt Cain, John Danks, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Shaun Marcum, Colby Lewis, and Anibal Sanchez project to be among the top starters available. But how many of them will be locked up in the next 15 months? Hamels appears open to a new extension, telling Nightengale, "Teams are being a lot smarter now, When they have somebody they want to keep, they make sure to get it done. They don't want to let it get to an iffy situation. The Phillies ought to know me pretty well by now, too, so we'll see what happens."
GM Candidate: Mike Chernoff
MLBTR's list of general manager candidates introduced 20 people who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’re bringing you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces. Today the series continues with Indians assistant GM Mike Chernoff, who ranked seventh on our list.
Mike Chernoff has had at least one game of catch every month with his dad since he was six years old. Chernoff's bond with his father was strong enough to break a childhood allegiance to the Yankees, as Mike switched allegiances when his dad accepted a Mets-related job at WFAN. He went on to attend Princeton, majoring in economics and playing ball there as well. Chernoff went into college expecting to eventually land a job in finance or teaching, but a Mets internship during that time changed his mind. After college former Mets GM Jim Duquette helped Chernoff score an internship with the Indians.
Chernoff moved up the ranks in the Indians' front office, gaining a dual education managing pro scouting and analytics. He became director of baseball operations in 2007 and then assistant GM last year. As an AGM, Chernoff continues to have a hand in all aspects of baseball operations, but with more authority. I spoke with him Monday afternoon.
On his mentors in the Indians' front office:
From very early on in my time here I was put in contact with our pro scouting department, which evolved into managing that department, which was one of the best things for my development. I basically talked every day with Steve Lubratich, who has been influential in mentoring me in that side of the game.
From the time I first got here, Chris [Antonetti] has been unbelievable in the opportunities, feedback, and development he's given me. I've learned a lot from watching Mark [Shapiro] interacting with him but also just watching him and how he leads people. I've been lucky to be around some quality people in this front office – Mike Hazen, Steve Lubratich, Chuck Tanner, Neal Huntington, DeJon Watson – they've made a huge impact.
The trades of which he's most proud:
It's been really fulfilling to see guys like Carlos Santana and Justin Masterson develop into the players they've become. Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo – guys that were in what seemed like smaller trades at the time that have turned into real impact players in our organization.
Thoughts on Moneyball:
I think the mindset of Moneyball is a really important one in any business. You have to always be looking for that next competitive advantage or inefficiency. I think that mentality has been really important to how we operate here. In other ways I think it's almost created this conflict between scouts and the SABR world. There's no reason not to combine the two. It's a funny conflict that's out there that there's really no need for. I think it's pitted in the media in some ways and from that book as much more confrontational than it really is.
Heath Bell, Carlos Pena, Kubel Placed On Waivers
Heath Bell, Jason Kubel, and Carlos Pena were placed on trade waivers today, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal tweeted earlier about Jim Thome being placed, also. The placement on waivers starts a 48 hour period during which teams can put in claims. Hundreds of players are placed on waivers in August, but these four are notable because they do appear to be trade candidates.
Bell, the Padres' closer, sports a 2.60 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.35 HR/9, and 42.9% groundball rate in 52 innings this year. That's a big dropoff from his typical strikeout rate. The 33-year-old has $1.5MM left on his contract. He projects as a Type A free agent, but has said he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offer. Owner Jeff Moorad said this month that Bell accepting arbitration would be preferable in some ways, but if the Padres aren't actually interested in a potential eight-figure one-year deal for Bell, they've got two days to move him. Dan Mennella took a look at the fantasy impact of the move at CloserNews.
Kubel, 29, is hitting .295/.350/.456 in 326 plate appearances for the Twins, playing right field and DH. The left-handed hitter has about $1MM plus incentives left on his contract and currently profiles as a Type B free agent in the American League. He earns more than Thome, but not so much that we can rule out a team claiming him mostly for the draft pick.
Pena, 33, is hitting .222/.342/.455 with 23 home runs in 480 plate appearances this year for the Cubs. Though he projects as a Type B, teams might be reluctant to offer arbitration given his salary. He's owed about $1MM for the rest of the year, and the Cubs will be on the hook for a deferred $5MM in January even if they trade him.
Two players who will not be traded this month: Oakland's Rich Harden and Coco Crisp, who were claimed on waivers but pulled back according to this report yesterday from Rosenthal. Today, ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that the Indians won the claim on Harden, but could not work out a deal.
Yankees Designate Aaron Laffey For Assignment
The Yankees designated lefty Aaron Laffey for assignment, tweets Marc Carig of the Newark Star-Ledger. They'd claimed him off waivers from the Mariners on Friday. Carig notes that Laffey was placed on optional waivers, meaning he remains on the 40-man roster and can be pulled back if claimed.
Laffey, 26, posted a 4.14 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9, and 50.9% groundball rate in 45 2/3 innings for the Mariners and Yankees this year.