Rangers Could Consider Berkman
Lance Berkman is the Rangers' prime target if they look outside the organization for help in the wake of Nelson Cruz's hamstring injury, writes Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. However, GM Jon Daniels advised caution until the team sees Cruz's MRI, and added, "More than likely, any moves we make will be from inside the organization."
So keep in mind that for the Rangers to get serious on Berkman or any other trade or claim candidate, the prognosis on Cruz would have to be bad and Daniels would have to change his mind. That said, Berkman would be a fantastic addition for the Rangers, as he ranks fourth in the NL with a .405 OBP and third with a .570 slugging percentage.
Berkman has reportedly cleared waivers, the reason for which I have no idea. His salary is relatively modest, with $1.32MM remaining to date. He projects as a low Type A free agent in the NL, and an arbitration offer seems probable, so the Rangers would have to give up something of value to get him. Big Puma is, of course, a native Texan who spent the vast majority of his career with the Astros.
Heyman On Reds, Swisher, Astros
SI's Jon Heyman leads his latest column with his MVP picks: Curtis Granderson and Ryan Braun. His hot stove info:
- Heyman's sources suggest that "there has been some difference of opinion over playing time between Reds GM Walt Jocketty and manager Dusty Baker." It was Jocketty, however, who chose not to trade veteran catcher Ramon Hernandez.
- Heyman wonders if the next Orioles GM will have ties to manager Buck Showalter, suggesting former Rangers GM John Hart as one possibility.
- The Yankees "will surely pick up" Nick Swisher's club option for 2012. The 30-year-old right fielder rebounded from a rough first two months and now owns a .267/.384/.459 line in 534 plate appearances.
- Astros owner Drayton McLane "is said by other owners to be nervous about the sale and also the state of the money that's in escrow at a time the stock market is tanking," as MLB continues to review the candidacy of expected new owner Jim Crane. Something has clearly changed in the last few weeks, wrote Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle yesterday.
Extension Candidate: Adam Jones
Back in May, Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail talked to Amber Theoharis of MASNsports.com about the possibility of locking up center fielder Adam Jones:
"We actually, in Adam's case, had a brief conversation with Casey Close of CAA at the last winter meetings and talked about, you know, we'd be interested in talking about it in the following parameters. But I think they felt like Adam was still on the ascent and wanted him to play and further establish himself, and they may very well be right."
When the subject of extending Jones comes up again, perhaps in early 2012, plenty will have changed. Jones is still with CAA, but is represented by Nez Balelo with Casey Close gone. There's a good chance a new GM will be in town for the Orioles. And most importantly, Jones will likely have the best offensive season of his career under his belt, as the agency apparently predicted.
Jones, 26, is hitting .293/.328/.482 with 22 home runs in 537 plate appearances for the Orioles this year. The batting average would be a career best. He's already set career highs in home runs and RBIs, while tying his top stolen base mark. Jones is not a perfect player – he doesn't draw many walks, and based on UZR his defense has been below average over his last 3,400 innings.
Those two flaws are generally not big factors in arbitration cases, so they're unlikely to affect Jones' earnings in 2012 and '13. Currently we're estimating a $3.35MM raise for Jones next year, bringing him to $6.6MM. Barring a performance decline or major injury, Jones projects to top $10MM for '13.
Jones is on track to earn around $17MM for 2012-13, but if he signs an extension in the offseason the team's discount is likely to reduce those salaries significantly. I could see something like $5MM for '12 and $8MM for '13, and then it's a question of how many free agent years each side is willing to include in a long-term deal. For Corey Hart, that number was two, at $9.5MM apiece. Justin Upton signed with much less service time but also gave up two, while Jay Bruce gave up two plus a club option. None of them are great comparables – Jones is only two years away from free agency and plays center field.
My gut feel is that buying a couple of Jones' free agent years could cost $14MM each, so the team could offer a bit more than $40MM over four years. The question is how eager Jones is for his first major payday. Signing through 2015 would still allow him to reach free agency at age 30, at which point a contract approaching $100MM would be possible if is offense stayed the same and a couple of bidders graded his defense with metrics other than UZR. On the other hand, the ultimate free agent score could be only two years away, especially if he has a monster 2013.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Arbitration Eligibles: New York Yankees
We've looked at the Orioles and Red Sox so far; now let's look at the Yankees players who will be arbitration eligible after the season.
- First time: Brett Gardner, David Robertson
- Second time: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain
- Third time: Boone Logan
- Fourth time: Russell Martin
I expect all six players to be tendered a contract. Robertson, Logan, and Chamberlain should all come in under $2MM. Gardner looks to be in the $2.4-3.3MM range for his first time through; a stolen base title would put him toward the higher end of that range. Hughes will get a mild raise, perhaps to $3.4MM or so. We have Martin around $5.2MM, though his is a little tricky to determine because he's coming from a free agent salary.
Kubel Claimed By Indians, Not White Sox
FRIDAY, 7:31pm: The Indians were awarded the claim on Kubel, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.com (via Twitter). However, the 48 hour window for the two sides to work out a deal has passed.
3:44pm: The White Sox did not actually claim Kubel, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter).
THURSDAY: The Indians were awarded the claim on Thome, while the White Sox were awarded the claim on Kubel, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports. Thome has a full-no trade clause and would prefer to play for the Phillies, according to Rosenthal. It's unlikely that the Twins will move Kubel, Rosenthal reports. The sides have discussed a possible extension.
WEDNESDAY: The Twins' Jim Thome and Jason Kubel have been claimed on waivers , tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. The teams involved now have 48 hours to make a deal.
We learned earlier that the White Sox were one of the teams to place a claim on Thome. Olney has spoken to executives who expected the White Sox, Indians, Rangers, or Yankees to win a claim on Kubel.
If multiple teams make a claim on one player, the team with the worst record in the same league is awarded the claim.
Giants Claim Bell On Waivers; No Deal Reached
FRIDAY: Bell is staying put, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).
WEDNESDAY: The Giants have been awarded the waiver claim on Padres closer Heath Bell, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. Olney expects the Giants' level of concern with closer Brian Wilson's elbow to be a factor in the ensuing trade talks. If the teams cannot reach an agreement, the Padres can pull Bell back, but then won't be able to trade him elsewhere. A trade is unlikely, hears Dan Hayes of the North County Times.
Though Bell projects as a Type A free agent, National League non-contenders elected not to claim the righty with an eye on draft pick compensation. With the Padres at least, Bell has said he'd accept an arbitration offer.
Bell, 33, has a 2.55 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.34 HR/9, and 43.2% groundball rate on the season. He has $1.44MM remaining on his contract.
The two division rivals last struck a deal in July of 2003, when the Giants traded Clay Hensley and cash to the Padres for Matt Herges. Before that, they hadn't made a deal since '92.
Rockies Designate Ryan Rohlinger For Assignment
The Rockies designated shortstop Ryan Rohlinger to open a 40-man roster spot for newly-signed Kevin Kouzmanoff, tweets Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. Kouzmanoff has been called up and is starting today, as MLBTR suggested when he signed.
Rohlinger, 27, hit .247/.351/.416 in 392 Triple-A plate appearances for the Giants and Rockies this year. The Rockies had claimed him off waivers in June.
GM Candidate: Bill Geivett
MLBTR's list of general manager candidates introduced 20 people who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’re bringing you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces. Today the series continues with Rockies senior vice president of scouting and player development/assistant general manager Bill Geivett, who ranked 15th on our list.
Bill Geivett grew up in Sacramento rooting for the Swingin' A's. A speedy third baseman, he played ball at Sacramento City College and later majored in economics at the University of California-Santa Barbara, telling me, "I'm a Gaucho, and will always be a Gaucho." Geivett was drafted four times, but a desire to complete his degree compelled him to wait until after his senior season to sign with the Angels. A knee injury ended Geivett's playing career at the Double-A level, after which he obtained a Masters and coached collegiately at Loyola Marymount and Long Beach State.
Geivett got into scouting after that, telling me, "I still believe I'm the only person that has taken a pay cut to go to the New York Yankees." After about four years with the Yankees he took a step up to become the Expos' farm director. After three years there he joined Chuck LaMar as a special assistant to the GM for the Devil Rays, helping prepare for the expansion draft and taking part in many firsts for the organization. Next came an eventual assistant GM position with the Dodgers under Kevin Malone, after which Geivett began his long tenure with the Rockies in 2000. He now oversees scouting and player development and assists with all baseball decisions. I talked to Geivett on the phone yesterday.
On his mentors:
Bill Livesey is one of the biggest mentors I've had in baseball. He really taught me how to scout and how scouting and player development worked [while with the Yankees]. The biggest thing I've learned from [Rockies GM] Dan O'Dowd is perseverence. There were a lot of lean times here, as we were involved in a rebuilding-type situation. To see our leader show up every day, grinding it out, he kept on going when times looked tough for us. The perspective of a MLB manager I learned from Felipe Alou and Tommy Lasorda. Keli McGregor, our former president, and Dick Monfort, our owner, had a big influence on me also.
On stats and scouting:
If you talk to the scouts they'd probably say I'm too involved in statistics. Talk to some stat guys, they'd probably tell you I like scouting too much. I think there's always times where you lean on one or the other. As you're dealing with Major League players, it's a lot more appropriate to lean on stats. I think statistics are a fabulous indication of what's happened. I think the scout's job is to try to tell you what will happen.
I've never really understood the scouts versus stats argument; I don't see it. For somebody to make a good decision they need a clear understanding of all it. You can get the oldest scout you want and he's going to pull out stats and look at them. There are a lot of scouts who will look at statistical information and already have an opinion before they even watch the player. And they've got big floppy hats and gray hair.
The trade he was involved with of which he's most proud:
The Matt Holliday trade was definitely big for us. If we're going to trade Matt we need to get a young, middle of the order position player back, and we got Carlos Gonzalez. You have a criteria in your mind and to be able to make a deal that actually fit was tremendous. We were at an advantage because Arizona had him originally and we were down in Tucson and played Arizona all the time. I can remember [senior director of international scouting] Rolando Fernandez and I were sitting there watching him in the instructional league one year, and we were talking about how that's the type of position player we need to sign. We really hadn't broken the position player barrier at the time. We always looked at CarGo as the type of guy we wanted to get. We had a long history with him.
The draft pick of which he's most proud:
Troy Tulowitzki. I coached at Long Beach State; Bill Schmidt, our VP of scouting, went to Long Beach State. We felt like we knew him very well. If available, we were going to be able to acquire a corner bat at a premium defensive position. Bill Schmidt said he would be available, but I didn't think he'd be there for us [at the seventh overall pick]. The first day [Tulowitzki] showed up he said, "I just want to tell you guys I want to be here my whole career," and he hadn't even played in A ball yet.
Arbitration Eligibles: Boston Red Sox
We looked at the Orioles yesterday; now it's time to discuss Red Sox players who will be eligible for arbitration after the season.
- First time: Andrew Miller, Alfredo Aceves, Mike Aviles, Daniel Bard, Jed Lowrie, Franklin Morales
- Second time: Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rich Hill
- Third time: Matt Albers
Aceves and Bard seem likely to be arbitration eligible as Super Two players. My non-tender candidates are Miller, Aviles, and Hill. Miller projects to an arbitration salary around $1.7MM; I'm not sure how his club option compares to that. Aviles hasn't done much with Boston, and I'm not sure whether they value him around $1.5MM. Hill, who had Tommy John surgery in June, is probably someone the Sox could non-tender and then re-sign to a minor league deal.
Ellsbury is easily the team's biggest case. His MVP-caliber campaign, coupled with his stolen base tally, could result in a salary over $6MM by our calculations. That'd exceed even Hunter Pence's second-time raise won through a hearing last year. The Boras Corporation probably won't be shy about trying to set a new precedent. Most of the team's other arbitration eligibles project to make less than $2MM.
Twins Place Jim Thome On Waivers
WEDNESDAY, 9:14am: The White Sox were one of several teams putting in a claim for Thome, reports Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that "there is a high expectation among executives that the White Sox will be awarded the claim." For that to happen, Thome would have to get past the Orioles, Royals, Mariners, and Athletics. That seems feasible, though it's possible one of the four would put in a claim with an eye on a potential draft pick.
MONDAY, 2:15pm: The Twins placed designated hitter Jim Thome on trade waivers today, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal says the Phillies want Thome back in their organization, but there's almost no chance the slugger gets to them. Since the Phillies have the best record in the National League, the 28 other teams would have to pass on Thome first.
Thome, 40, is hitting .256/.365/.503 with 12 home runs in 230 plate appearances this year. He cranked his 600th home run a week ago. Now that Thome has reached the milestone, the Twins might be more inclined to trade him if he would like to join a playoff race. Rosenthal notes that Thome has a full no-trade clause.
Thome's salary should not pose a problem, as he has about $610K remaining plus incentives. As of a week ago Thome wasn't too far from Type B status, so if he continues producing there could be a shot at a draft pick. So there is the possibility that American League non-contenders could place claims. If the Twins want to give Thome freedom to play for any team but don't mind getting nothing in return, they could release him, notes Rosenthal.