Quick Hits: Posting System, Wright, Phillies
Royals southpaw Danny Duffy makes his MLB debut tonight against the Rangers, a team that hits lefties well with players such as Michael Young and Mike Napoli. Read about the service time implications for Duffy here, and predict his debut line in the comments. Today's links:
- NPB will review the posting system, reports Patrick Newman. One interesting suggestion from Rakuten is to award negotiating rights to the top three bidders.
- Third baseman David Wright talked to ESPN Radio New York's Mike Lupica about his future with the team, saying he wants to finish his career with the Mets. Listen here and read the transcript here.
- Great article from ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, who ranks ugly endings for beloved players, complete with "animosity quotients."
- The Phillies' biggest need is a right-handed bat, writes David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Twins' Michael Cuddyer could be a feasible fit. Cuddyer, however, is earning $10.5MM this season. Earlier today I tossed the Phillies in as a speculative match for left-handed bat Garrett Jones. It's admittedly a rough gauge, but the Phillies' OPS against righties ranks 13th in the NL while their OPS against lefties ranks sixth.
Rockies Measuring Trade Interest In Paulino, Morales
The Rockies are "expected to continue measuring trade interest" in hard-throwing pitchers Felipe Paulino and Franklin Morales, reports Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. At least one NL Central team has expressed interest in Morales, he adds. Both pitchers are out of options, so the Rockies can't demote them without exposing them to waivers.
Paulino, 27, was acquired from the Astros in November for Clint Barmes. He throws hard and gets strikeouts, but allows tons of hits and plenty of walks and home runs. He's relieving now, but has 34 career starts to his name. Paulino missed a good chunk of 2010 with a shoulder injury.
Morales, 25, was considered the eighth best prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2008 season, according to Baseball America. He has a higher profile than Paulino, having made a couple of playoff starts in '07 and served as the Rockies' closer at times. There might be five or six lefties in the Majors who throw harder than Morales. However, he's prone to flyballs and walks and has also battled shoulder injuries. Paulino and Morales are projects, so they make the most sense for non-contenders.
If The Pirates Become Sellers
The Pirates haven't finished above .500 since 1992, back when Jose Tabata was a toddler. They've lost six in a row, so that goal may be slipping out of reach for 2011. If GM Neal Huntington decides to trade veterans for prospects, as he has many times before, who might be available?
- Catcher Chris Snyder is earning $5.75MM this year and has a $750K buyout due after the season. Ryan Doumit is at $5.1MM with a $500K buyout coming. The D'Backs picked up part of the tab on Snyder, some of which the Pirates might have to send along to another team if they wish to move him again. I think Doumit will continue to be the catcher they prefer to trade, and he is healthy and hitting currently. Of course, Doumit hasn't caught 800 innings in a season since '08.
- Southpaw Paul Maholm has a reasonable $5.75MM salary, plus a $750K buyout after the season if his option is declined. The groundballer owns a solid 3.67 ERA through nine starts, six of them quality. If he keeps up the good work it'll take more than salary relief to acquire him, though as ESPN's Buster Olney notes, he's a guy who "might not be suited to go head-to-head with teams in the AL East."
- First baseman Lyle Overbay might be best-served as a platoon bat. Another impending free agent, shortstop Ronny Cedeno, has been showing signs of life in May. The pair make about $7MM this year, and trading them would be about unloading some salary.
- Another position player, Garrett Jones, projects to be arbitration eligible after the season as a Super Two. He has a .281/.363/.496 career line against righties, which would be helpful to teams such as the Dodgers, Athletics, Phillies, and Tigers. Between his low salary, years of control, and ability to help as a platoon bat, Jones has trade value.
- Kevin Correia and Matt Diaz were perhaps the headliners in the Pirates' offseason, signing two-year free agent deals. Correia could be dealt for something useful in theory, though his 4.87 SIERA is more representative than his 3.97 ERA if his peripherals don't improve.
- The Pirates' bullpen has a solid 3.34 ERA, though that's only good for 10th in the NL. Potential targets: closer Joel Hanrahan, lefty Joe Beimel, and righties Jose Veras and Chris Resop. Veras and Resop are tied for fifth in the league in relief strikeouts with 26 each, and Veras' K/9 ranks fourth in the league. Hanrahan's strikeout rate has oddly dropped, but groundballs are way up, walks are down, he's throwing harder, and he's 11 for 11 in save opportunities. He's earning $1.4MM this year and is under team control through 2013. July might be the time to sell high and maximize his value.
- We've previously tackled the Diamondbacks, Twins, and Astros as potential sellers, so check out those posts.
Each Team’s Draft Picks
The amateur draft begins on June 6th this year. Once the second round concludes, 90 players will have been drafted – 33 in the first round, 27 in the supplemental round, and 30 in the second round. Courtesy of the 2011 draft order at River Ave. Blues, here's a look at which picks each team has within the first 90.
- Rays (12): #24, 31, 32, 38, 41, 42, 52, 56, 59, 60, 75, 89
- Blue Jays (7): #21, 35, 46, 53, 57, 74, 78
- Padres (6): #10, 25, 48, 54, 58, 82
- Red Sox (5): #19, 26, 36, 40, 81
- Diamondbacks (4): #3, 7, 43, 63
- Twins (4): #30, 50, 55, 87
- Nationals (3): #6, 23, 34
- Brewers (3): #12, 15, 70
- Mets (3): #13, 44, 71
- Rockies (3): #20, 45, 77
- Giants (3): #29, 49, 86
- Rangers (3): #33, 37, 83
- Phillies (3): #39, 66, 90
- Pirates (2): #1, 61
- Mariners (2): #2, 62
- Orioles (2): #4, 64
- Royals (2): #5, 65
- Indians (2): #8, 67
- Cubs (2): #9, 68
- Astros (2): #11, 69
- Marlins (2): #14, 72
- Dodgers (2): #16, 73
- Cardinals (2): #22, 79
- Reds (2): #27, 84
- Braves (2): #28, 85
- White Sox (2): #47, 80
- Yankees (2): #51, 88
- Angels (1): #17
- Athletics (1): #18
- Tigers (1): #76
2012 Contract Issues: New York Yankees
The Yankees are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (6)
- In one of the year's biggest surprises, Bartolo Colon's name is all over the leaderboard for free agent starters. An offseason stem cell treatment was a factor, a procedure that was unknown to GM Brian Cashman at the time of the signing and is being investigated by MLB. If Colon is not linked to HGH and his stellar pitching continues for the remaining three quarters of the season, he has to be looking at at least a nice one-year deal north of $5MM.
- Jorge Posada has been a source of drama but not offensive production this season. I'm guessing the Yankees move on from Posada, who has hit 267 home runs for them to date.
- Former stars Andruw Jones and Eric Chavez are bench players on one-year deals; Chavez was hitting well when he hit the DL for a foot injury.
- Freddy Garcia has a 3.22 ERA on the season, hanging in there in most of his six starts. Will he do enough to warrant a big league deal after the season?
- Luis Ayala will also be eligible for free agency.
Contract Options (5)
- Robinson Cano: $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout. This should be an easy decision to exercise for the Yankees.
- Nick Swisher: $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout. Swisher's option seemed like an easy choice to exercise, but his bat has yet to come alive in 160 plate appearances this year. He's got time to bounce back, but the option is not a lock.
- Damaso Marte: $4MM club option with a $250K buyout. Marte is likely out for the season with October labrum surgery, in which case the Yankees will have gotten 31 innings for their $12MM.
- C.C. Sabathia: Can opt out of remaining four years, $92MM. Most expect Sabathia to opt out, though he certainly could re-sign with the Yankees. GM Brian Cashman told ESPN's Buster Olney he'll stick with his policy of avoiding in-season negotiations, but "we fully expect him to be here." Sabathia's overall numbers look solid, though he's scuffled in May. If Sabathia does reach the open market, he'll probably be the best available free agent starter, as he was in the 2008-09 offseason when he received the biggest contract ever for a pitcher.
- Rafael Soriano: Can opt out of remaining two years, $25MM. Even without knowledge of Soriano's current elbow concerns, I wrote two months ago that Soriano is unlikely to opt out of his contract after the season. This offseason when he does choose to stick with the contract, don't blame the opt-out clause. Without it, all the money still would have been guaranteed to him.
Arbitration Eligible (8)
- First time: Brett Gardner, David Robertson, Chris Dickerson
- Second time: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Buddy Carlyle
- Third time: Boone Logan
- Fourth time: Russell Martin
From the Yankees' standpoint, none of these cases should be daunting. This is only Gardner's second full season, and he doesn't have power, so his arbitration reward will probably be $3MM or less. Hughes' issues will limit his raise to perhaps a million dollars at most. Raises for relievers Robertson, Chamberlain, and Logan won't be crazy either. Martin's hot hitting has tailed off this month. He could still get a bump to $6MM+, depending on how the rest of his season goes. I'll use a rough estimate of $17MM to retain the team's arbitration eligibles.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Yankees' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $140.875MM if options for Swisher and Marte are declined, Cano's option is exercised, Sabathia opts out, and Soriano does not. That goes up to around $158MM with the arbitration eligibles, about $49MM short of this year's payroll before accounting for minimum salary players. If Sabathia is re-signed at a $25MM salary for 2012, that still leaves $24MM in '12 salaries to work with before raising payroll. That'd be enough for Swisher or a replacement, as well as some kind of starting pitching signing to go with Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Ivan Nova. Cashman could find $6MM more with a bump to the 2010 payroll of $213MM.
The Yankees should be able to address their issues without taking payroll much higher. If Sabathia leaves, it could be another situation where they struggle to find a good way to spend the excess cash.
Astros Links: Crane, Draft
The Astros are in the midst of a lost season; about a month ago I looked at the players they could move if they become trade deadline sellers. That storyline may heat up in July, but right now it's all about Jim Crane's purchase of the club. Today's links:
- Crane will be in the draft room with Astros management for the June 6th draft, reports ESPN's Buster Olney. However, Crane's purchase won't be approved by MLB by then, so he'll just be observing Ed Wade, Bobby Heck, and company. The Astros have the 11th overall pick in the draft.
- The Astros have to be smarter, explains Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle.
- In a column for MLB.com, former Astros manager Larry Dierker opines that Crane will have a "pretty good head start" on building the Astros from the ground up.
Free Agent Starting Pitching Leaderboards
We checked in on the free agent offensive leaderboards yesterday; now let's see how starting pitchers stack up a quarter of the way through the season.
ERA
- Hiroki Kuroda – 3.21
- C.J. Wilson – 3.38
- C.C. Sabathia – 3.47
- Jason Marquis – 3.54
- Bruce Chen – 3.59
SIERA (minimum 40 innings)
- Bartolo Colon – 3.30
- Ryan Dempster – 3.62
- Hiroki Kuroda – 3.82
- C.C. Sabathia – 3.92
- Chris Carpenter – 4.02
Innings pitched
1. C.J. Wilson – 61 1/3
2. Mark Buehrle, C.C. Sabathia – 59 2/3
4. Livan Hernandez – 57 1/3
5. Brad Penny – 57
Strikeouts per nine innings
- Ryan Dempster – 8.6
- Bartolo Colon – 8.5
- C.C. Sabathia – 7.5
- C.J. Wilson – 7.34
- Edwin Jackson - 7.28
Walks per nine innings
- Jeff Francis – 1.67
- Jason Marquis – 1.69
- Bartolo Colon – 2.1
- Hiroki Kuroda – 2.2
- Mark Buehrle – 2.6
Groundball rate
- Brad Penny – 54.0%
- Paul Maholm – 52.4%
- Jason Marquis – 51.7%
- Jeff Francis – 49.5%
- Hiroki Kuroda – 48.5%
Average fastball velocity
1. Edwin Jackson – 93.8 mph
2. C.C. Sabathia – 92.8
3. Brad Penny – 92.0
4. Chris Carpenter, Bartolo Colon – 91.8
Yankees Sign Randy Flores
The Yankees signed lefty reliever Randy Flores to a minor league deal, reports Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. The deal includes an opt-out, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the opt-out is before the All-Star break.
Flores, 35, opted out of his minor league deal with the Padres on Sunday. Four teams expressed interest in the CAA client, tweets Sherman. Flores faced lefties about 61% of the time, posting a 9.5 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 against them.
Mike Axisa profiled Flores at River Ave. Blues yesterday, noting that Yankees lefties Pedro Feliciano, Damaso Marte, and Kei Igawa are unusable currently, leaving Boone Logan as the team's only lefty reliever. Flores was drafted by the Yankees in the ninth round in 1997 and later traded to the Rangers in the Randy Velarde deal of '01.
Brewers Designate Sean Green For Assignment
The Brewers designated reliever Sean Green for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for catcher Mike Rivera, reports Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.
Green, 32, posted a 5.40 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, and 58.1% groundball rate with no home runs allowed in 11 2/3 innings this year. He averaged only 84.5 mph on his fastball, the lowest velocity for all relievers aside from Tim Wakefield. Green had signed an $875K deal with the Brewers in December after being non-tendered by the Mets.
Blue Jays Release Chad Cordero
The Blue Jays released reliever Chad Cordero from their Triple-A club, reports Todd Dewey of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
Cordero, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Jays in January. Cordero had 128 career saves under his belt as a 25-year-old with the Nationals, but he had surgery to repair a labrum tear in his shoulder in July of '08. Since then he has been a part of the Mariners, Mets, and Jays organizations. This year at Triple-A he posted an 8.66 ERA, 3.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, and 2.5 HR/9 in 17 2/3 innings, a departure from his Triple-A work of 2010.