Conor Glassey’s Draft Overview
Baseball America's Conor Glassey posted a draft overview yesterday, and it appears to be free to all. A few highlights:
- Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, Francisco Lindor, and Bubba Starling are in the Pirates' mix for the first overall pick, writes Glassey. Pirates scouting director Greg Smith told Glassey he's more prepared for this first overall pick than he was when he drafted Matt Anderson with the Tigers in 1997. There is no obvious number one overall talent, in Glassey's opinion. High school pitcher Dylan Bundy could be a longshot for first overall, writes Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein in this free article. Goldstein also ranks his top 20, so be sure to check that out.
- One NL scouting director told Glassey he hasn't seen this kind of depth in a draft at any point in the 2000s. This draft features a lot of high-velocity pitchers, though it's light on impact college bats and up-the-middle players. Glassey notes that "many premium players are from non-traditional states." One such example a little further down the draft might be Ben Roberts, a high school outfielder out of Montana who participated in his first showcase recently.
- 2011 could be the last year without a hard slotting system, prompting some to assume teams will go crazy spending. One NL scouting director Glassey spoke to expressed skepticism about that possibility.
- Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison echoes the velocity sentiment in this Bill Chastain article for MLB.com: "This is the most guys I've ever seen who are throwing mid-90s." The Rays have 12 picks between #24 and #89, and Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Chastain the team has "planned in advance for this Draft and the expected financial outlay for this many players in the top of the Draft."
2012 Contract Issues: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (6)
- Prince Fielder may have to share the free agent spotlight with Albert Pujols, C.C. Sabathia, and Jose Reyes. But Fielder, a 27-year-old Scott Boras client, brings an elite bat to the open market. Boras has to be targeting Mark Teixeira's eight-year, $180MM deal, if not more. The Brewers are not expected to be in the mix.
- LaTroy Hawkins had shoulder surgery in August of last year, but he's been decent so far in a limited sample. Sergio Mitre has a similar line involving a low ERA, a low strikeout rate, and a good amount of groundballs.
- Hamstring and oblique injuries should keep Takashi Saito out until June or so; he's only tossed two innings for the Brewers so far. 42 in February, DL stays are the norm for Saito but he's still good when healthy.
- Bench players Craig Counsell and Mark Kotsay are eligible for free agency as well.
Contract Options (1)
- Yuniesky Betancourt: $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout. Brewers manager Ron Roenicke seems to be a fan of Betancourt's offense and defense, but the Royals won't be picking up $2MM of his $4MM net price in 2012. I expect GM Doug Melvin to survey free agent alternatives.
Arbitration Eligible (9)
- First time: Casey McGehee, Nyjer Morgan, Mitch Stetter
- Second time: Kameron Loe, Manny Parra
- Third time: Shaun Marcum, Carlos Gomez, Sean Green, Wil Nieves
A few of these players will be cut loose by the non-tender deadline. McGehee is a notable first-time case; he could get $2MM. Marcum has been stellar, and a raise to the $8-9MM range is plausible. I can see about $18MM to retain McGehee, Morgan, Loe, Parra, Marcum, and Gomez.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Brewers' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $58.08MM including Betancourt's buyout. Retaining arbitration eligibles could bring the total to $76MM or so, leaving $8MM to spend aside from minimum salary players if payroll is maintained. Melvin could have a few million more to work with if players such as Gomez and Parra are non-tendered or traded. The 2010 payroll was $90MM; going back to that level or higher would create another $6MM+ to use. Melvin will have some room to acquire a shortstop, first baseman, and a reliever or two, but it'd be surprising to see him in on any of the big names.
Mets Outright Chin-lung Hu
The Mets outrighted shortstop Chin-lung Hu to Triple-A, reports MLB.com's Anthony DiComo. With Ike Davis on the DL and David Wright headed there, the team will play Justin Turner at third base, Jose Reyes at shortstop, Ruben Tejada at second base, and Daniel Murphy at first. Nick Evans will be recalled today to take a spot on the bench.
Removing Hu from the 40-man roster drops it to 39 players, leaving a spot for Evans. Another 40-man roster spot will be opened up when Chris Young is moved to the 60-day DL.
Hu, 27, was acquired by the Mets from the Dodgers in December for southpaw Michael Antonini. Hu, who is known for his defense, had one hit and one walk in 23 plate appearances for the Mets this year. He had to clear waivers before being outrighted.
AL East Notes: Posada, Jeter, Lawrie, Bautista
The Rays lost most of their bullpen and several regulars during the offseason, but they currently sit atop the AL East with a 23-17 record. It's a tight race, though, as the fifth-place Orioles are only 3.5 games out. A few links from around the division:
- Over the weekend Jorge Posada told GM Brian Cashman that he wanted out of the Yankees, not just out of the lineup, according to Bill Madden of the New York Daily News. However, a source close to Posada says his comments were simply said out of anger and frustration.
- Yankees management was "surprised and frustrated" that Derek Jeter told reporters Posada did nothing wrong and did not owe his teammates an apology, reports ESPN's Buster Olney. Posada pulled himself from the lineup Saturday, partially because he'd been dropped to ninth and also because of "a long-running antagonism between him and manager Joe Girardi," in the words of Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman says the team was ready to move on after Posada's apology, but then executives including Hal Steinbrenner were miffed at Jeter's comments. At any rate, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News tweets that the Yankees spoke with Jeter, and "all is fine between them."
- Brett Lawrie's continued stay at Triple-A "doesn't seem to be a case of Super 2 concerns overriding baseball considerations," writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports in regard to the Blue Jays' top prospect. Club officials tell Rosenthal Lawrie is playing well at third base, so you have to think his promotion is near.
- MLBTR's Steve Adams wrote yesterday that it would have been conceivable for Jose Bautista to try to top Carl Crawford's seven-year, $142MM deal in free agency. FanGraphs' Dave Cameron is thinking $158MM over seven years would have been possible, adding that Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos "created something like $150 million in surplus value for his club this winter" given the dumping of Vernon Wells' contract as well. In another post, Cameron demonstrates just how amazing Bautista's season has been so far.
Tigers Will Consider Trades For Hitters
The Tigers will consider trading for an outfield or third base bat, tweets SI's Jon Heyman, though the $15MM salary owed to Mets' third baseman David Wright "appears too rich for them to take."
Wright's salary is listed at $14MM at Cot's Baseball Contracts, so acquiring him on July 31st would require adding about $4.5MM. I imagine the cost in players to acquire Wright would be an even bigger concern, but only if he starts hitting in the next two months. Plus, the Tigers are already paying Brandon Inge $5.5MM this year and next to man the hot corner.
The Tigers haven't gotten much from outfielders Ryan Raburn, Austin Jackson, and Magglio Ordonez so far this season. A few speculative trade ideas: Jeff Francoeur, Jason Kubel, Hunter Pence, Ryan Ludwick, and Luke Scott. Problems: acquiring Francoeur or Kubel from division rivals could be tough, and Pence may not be available. Carlos Beltran would be a nice fit, but he earns more than Wright.
The Tigers were seven games out and in third place ten days ago, but since then they've won seven straight. They're now in second place, 3.5 games behind the Indians with Max Scherzer on the hill tonight.
Mariners Release Milton Bradley
MAY 16th: The Mariners released Bradley, tweets Ryan Divish of The News Tribune. He's now a free agent, to no one's surprise.
MAY 9th: The Mariners designated left fielder Milton Bradley for assignment and recalled outfielder Carlos Peguero, reports MLB.com's Greg Johns. In the likely event the Ms eventually release Bradley, they'll have to eat over $9MM in salary. Johns tweets GM Jack Zduriencik's explanation: "We felt Milton was not part of our future and not part of our present. Therefore, the move was made."
The Mariners shook up the roster a bit today, designating veterans Bradley and Ryan Langerhans to make room for youngsters Peguero and Mike Wilson. Bradley, 33, hit .209/.298/.351 in 393 plate appearances for the Mariners since he was acquired from the Cubs for Carlos Silva and $9MM in December of '09. Essentially the Mariners took on Bradley for two years and $5MM in that bad contract swap.
Bradley's time with Seattle was tumultuous, with a benching, multiple ejections, time on the restricted list for counseling, arthroscopic knee surgery, and an arrest for making a criminal threat.
Free Agent Offensive Leaderboards
We're about a quarter of the way through the 2011 season. Here's a look at the impending free agent leaderboards.
Batting average
- Lance Berkman – .347
- Jason Kubel – .331
- Jamey Carroll – .319
- Jose Reyes – .310
- Jeff Francoeur – .295
On-base percentage
- Lance Berkman – .434
- Jason Kubel – .387
- Jamey Carroll – .380
- David Ortiz – .377
- Carlos Beltran – .373
Slugging percentage
- Lance Berkman – .694
- Carlos Beltran – .569
- Jeff Francoeur – .550
- Prince Fielder – .540
- David Ortiz – .504
Walk rate
- Carlos Pena – 17.5%
- Kosuke Fukudome – 16.4%
- J.D. Drew – 16.3%
- Jonny Gomes – 15.7%
- Lance Berkman - 14.5%
wOBA
- Lance Berkman - .463
- Carlos Beltran – .402
- Jeff Francoeur – .390
- Prince Fielder – .390
- Kosuke Fukudome – .387
Home runs
1. Lance Berkman – 11
2. Prince Fielder – 9
3. Carlos Beltran, Jeff Francoeur – 8
5. David Ortiz, Rod Barajas, Albert Pujols – 7
If The Diamondbacks Become Sellers
The Diamondbacks currently sit at 17-22, in fourth place in the NL West and five games back of the Giants. The deficit doesn't seem insurmountable, but the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report assigns the team a meager 0.8% chance. If GM Kevin Towers commits to selling in a couple of months, who might be available?
- Second baseman Kelly Johnson belongs at the top of the list, given his $5.85MM salary and impending free agency. However, Johnson is hitting .185/.256/.308 in 162 plate appearances and leads the NL in strikeouts. Even if he starts hitting, this will probably be a salary dump for Arizona at best.
- 29-year-old southpaw Joe Saunders is having a rough year, with a well-deserved 5.48 ERA through eight starts. There's a good chance he's non-tendered after the season. If he can put up a sub-5.00 ERA over the next two months the Diamondbacks might be able to save a few million on the contract. Lefty Zach Duke, recovering from a broken hand, may not make his season debut until late May or early June. If he pitches well in June, he could be a more affordable alternative to Saunders.
- There's an argument for trading shortstop Stephen Drew this summer. It'd probably make the team worse in 2012, but Drew's trade value could be higher than Jose Reyes' since the Arizona shortstop is under control for next season. Towers was willing to listen on Justin Upton during the offseason, and I think he'll field calls on Drew in the coming months. If Drew can be had, Towers would have to listen on catcher Miguel Montero as well, as Montero is also under team control through '12.
- Closer J.J. Putz is another solid player the D'Backs have to consider moving even if it hurts in the short-term. Putz is under contract for '12 and possibly '13. He's nine for nine in save opportunities in a world where Matt Capps can net a team Wilson Ramos.
- The Diamondbacks have a slew of additional veterans who wouldn't net more than salary relief in trade, assuming they're even around in July: Melvin Mora, Armando Galarraga, Aaron Heilman, Xavier Nady, Geoff Blum, Henry Blanco, Russell Branyan, and Willie Bloomquist.
Draft Prep: Know Your Bradleys
The draft is just three weeks away. Three Bradleys have first-round potential; let's brush up.
Archie Bradley
Archie is a right-handed pitcher out of Broken Arrow High School in Oklahoma. In his recent top 100 list, ESPN's Keith Law ranked him tenth. Back in February, Baseball America placed him ninth. Law notes that Archie "is committed to Oklahoma as a quarterback but his passion is baseball." According to Law, this Bradley sits 92-95 and has a hammer curveball "that might be the best in the draft." Talking to BA's Nathan Rode in February, Bradley labeled himself a "front of the rotation guy," noting that "people get away from the fastball too much." Comparisons to Dylan Bundy are natural, because the two top ten draft prospects pitch in the same conference and are good friends.
Jed Bradley
Jed is a 6'4" left-handed pitcher out of Georgia Tech. Law ranked him 13th, while BA had him 12th in February. Law says Jed sits at 89-94 and is a clear first-rounder, but his ceiling is currently limited because he lacks an average breaking ball. On May 11th, ESPN's Jason Churchill wrote that Bradley's recent performance had his stock dropping a bit, but he'll still go in the middle of the first round at worst. MLB.com's Peter Gammons still considers Jed a "sure top-10 selection." BA's Teddy Cahill noted that Bradley was undrafted out of high school, but he bulked up, added velocity, and learned a lot from former Yellow Jacket teammate Deck McGuire.
Jackie Bradley Jr.
Jackie is a 5'10" center fielder out of South Carolina. He's currently recovering from late April wrist surgery. While the injury itself doesn't affect his long-term outlook, it may prevent him from returning and breaking out of an extended slump. BA's Jim Callis puts Jackie in the second half of the first round, and Law ranked him 28th. Law's scouting report bottom line: "His upside is that of a plus glove in center who hits for average and probably 15-homer power." Jackie has over 4,000 Twitter followers and is advised by the Boras Corporation.
2012 Contract Issues: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series, and their offseason should have plenty of intrigue. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (8)
- Earlier this month, three GMs who spoke to SI's Jon Heyman predicted Albert Pujols would re-sign with the Cardinals after the season. The situation seems to have gone dormant since Spring Training, but not in a discouraging way. Perhaps coincidentally, Pujols is having the worst season of his career. It's only about a quarter over, but should the slugger fail to reach the .400 OBP and .600 SLG for which he's typically been considered a lock, that would have to affect the price tag and make the Cardinals' offer (north of $200MM over nine years) more palatable. Still, it's hard to picture Pujols not requiring a salary in the $24-26MM range.
- Lance Berkman has proven last year's power outage to be a fluke; he's leading the NL with a .694 SLG. He's close to the top in home runs, RBI, and OBP as well. Should Berkman's health and amazing offense continue, maybe he'll have his eye on Paul Konerko's three-year, $37.5MM contract, which was similarly signed by a mid-30s player coming off a huge year. I imagine he'll have to let the Cardinals resolve the Pujols situation first, if he's aiming to return.
- Ryan Franklin seems headed for a minor league deal, as he's lost his closing job and has been battered in his first 13 2/3 innings.
- The sample is tiny, but Trever Miller hasn't handled lefties well this year. Miguel Batista is another Cardinals veteran reliever whose ERA is much better than his peripheral statistics.
- Gerald Laird, Nick Punto, and Brian Tallet are also eligible for free agency.
Contract Options (3)
- Chris Carpenter: $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout. Though Carpenter's ERA is 4.95, his supporting stats are similar to last year's. The Cardinals will have to decide on him before Pujols, most likely. If Carpenter is healthy the Cards probably have to pick this up, knowing that they could at least trade the 36-year-old if need be.
- Adam Wainwright: $9MM club option for 2012, $12MM club option for '13, must be either voided or exercised at the same time. In his conversation with Heyman earlier this month, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak seemed to imply the team is planning to exercise Wainwright's options. Barring any major setbacks it's an easy call.
- Yadier Molina: $7MM club option with a $750K buyout. This option seems likely to be exercised.
Arbitration Eligible (6)
- First time: Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia, Jason Motte
- Second time: Kyle McClellan
- Third time: Ryan Theriot, Skip Schumaker
The Cardinals have several notable arbitration cases, starting with Rasmus and Garcia. Rasmus' career numbers should keep him at $3.5MM or less. Garcia's numbers are limited by missing the '09 season, but he's having a fantastic year and should jump past $3MM (more on that from MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith this week). Theriot and Schumaker are not locks to be tendered, but we'll see how the rest of the season plays out for them. If everyone is retained I'm estimating around $18MM for the team's arbitration eligibles.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Cardinals' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $47.538MM not including the buyouts for Carpenter and Molina. If the three options are picked up they'll be at $78.538MM, and the arbitration eligible group could bring commitments up to $97MM. If payroll remains steady at $109MM, there's only about $12MM to work with before accounting for minimum salary players. I'm sure the Cardinals have already worked out ways to fit in a salary exceeding $20MM for Pujols, whether by backloading, raising payroll, or not retaining Carpenter, Theriot, and Schumaker. But if Pujols is re-signed it's hard to see where an eight-figure salary for Berkman fits in or how the Cardinals will have any significant money for other improvements.