Heyman On Cubs, Pettitte, V-Mart
SI's Jon Heyman leads his latest column with a look at the Cubs' managerial opening. He feels that interim manager Mike Quade is now a real possibility, with Ryne Sandberg the other top contender. Heyman's other info:
- "Word around the team" is that Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte is 50-50 on whether he'll play next year.
- Heyman passes along an unconfirmed report from a competing executive that Boston's offer to Victor Martinez was about $22MM over two years. Martinez's former teammate C.C. Sabathia expects the catcher to sign elsewhere, as he's seeking a four-year contract. Whatever the amount, Martinez rejected the two-year offer in August. Martinez profiles as a highly-ranked Type A free agent, so the Red Sox might at least end up with a pair of draft picks. Any first-rounder received will be the 19th overall pick at best.
- Jose Reyes "expects the Mets to either pick up his $11 million option or offer him an extension," writes Heyman. Reyes sports a .284/.322/.429 line this year and could be primed for a big 2011.
Odds & Ends: Pirates, Marlins, Rangers
Six years ago today, the Rockies signed righty Jhoulys Chacin as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela. This year as a rookie, Chacin has a 3.26 ERA in 132.3 innings. Links for Monday…
- Pirates GM Neal Huntington indicated a preference to sign a free agent pitcher to a multiyear deal, in comments made to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- The Marlins are considering a slight payroll bump for 2011 to the $48-50MM range, reports MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
- The Rangers signed a 20-year extension with Fox Sports Southwest worth $3 billion, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale.
- The Brewers' trade return on a one-year rental of Prince Fielder may be disappointing, suggests Dave Cameron of FanGraphs. In a U.S.S. Mariner post, Cameron explains why he doesn't find Fielder a good fit in Seattle.
Next Year’s Adrian Beltre
When the Red Sox signed him to a one-year, $10MM deal in January, Adrian Beltre was coming off an injury-marred campaign. He'd played in a career-low 111 games, and his offense had tanked. The combination of Beltre being represented by Scott Boras and the third baseman's previous consistent work resulted in the large one-year commitment with Boston. The deal paid off for both sides, as Beltre combined good health, his typically stellar defense, and a .319/.365/.552 line. Which free agent position players are candidates to become the Adrian Beltre of 2011?
- Derrek Lee – Lee was consistently solid for the 2007-09 Cubs, averaging over four wins above replacement (using the FanGraphs version of the stat). In 2010 his power took a dive while his strikeout rate jumped, and he turned 35 this month. He's dealt with side, hand, back, hamstring, thumb, and foot injuries this year.
- Johnny Damon – Damon averaged 3.7 WAR for the 2008-09 Yankees but dropped to 2.0 this year for the Tigers. He still gets on base; maybe the power will return in the right situation. He's battled back and calf injuries this year. Damon turns 37 in November.
- Lance Berkman– He averaged 4.7 WAR from 2007-09, including a monster '08. The walks remain but Berkman's power plummeted in 2010. He had knee surgery in March and had fluid drained from it five times before being activated on April 20th. He also fought groin and ankle injuries. He'll turn 35 in February.
- Jose Lopez – He averaged 2.4 WAR from 2008-09, but sits at just 0.2 this year. The cause, again, is a loss of power. He missed time with a hamstring injury, but has been mostly healthy this year. One major change was a move from second to third base. Lopez figures to reach free agency by way of a declined option and a non-tender. He'll turn 27 in November, so youth is on his side.
- Carlos Pena– He averaged over four wins for 2007-09, but stands at just 1.1 this year. He had surgery a year ago for two broken fingers, and also dealt with a foot injury during the season. Pena turns 33 in May. He's also represented by Boras, and is the most likely player here to get a Beltre-like deal. However, none of these players match Beltre's combination of relative youth and defensive prowess.
Offseason Dates Moved Up
On Thursday, ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that the players' union and MLB "reached an agreement to lengthen the offseason negotiating periods for free agents by moving up the annual filing, arbitration and tender dates, starting immediately after this season." Today, MLBTR has learned the details, including the new 2010 deadlines.
- Instead of the typical 15-day free agent filing period following the World Series, it will be five days.
- Typically the deadline for a team to offer arbitration to its own free agents has been December 1st; it's now November 23rd.
- December 7th has been the deadline for free agents to accept or decline arbitration offers from their old teams; it's now November 30th.
- December 12th has been the non-tender deadline; it's now December 2nd.
- The above dates are confirmed. On the unconfirmed side, there is word that the Rule 5 draft may be moved to November 20th. The Rule 5 draft typically marks the end of the Winter Meetings, but that gathering takes place from December 6-9 this year in Lake Buena Vista, Florida.
- The goal here, according to Stark, is to lengthen the offseason free agent negotiating period, resulting in fewer unsigned players in February and March.
Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Angels
The arbitration eligibles series is back with a vengeance. Today we look at the Angels players who will be eligible for arbitration after the season…
- First time: Kendry Morales, Kevin Frandsen, Alberto Callaspo
- Second time: Jered Weaver, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick, Jeff Mathis, Reggie Willits
- Third time: Mike Napoli
Frandsen played well in his first 100 or so Angels plate appearances, but his work since then could get him non-tendered. Callaspo could be cut loose if the Angels prefer not to bump him up to $1MM. It might be a similar story for Willits. Mathis could be non-tendered after another abysmal offensive showing, though the Angels would have a case for keeping his salary at $1.3MM or even cutting his pay.
Weaver, a Scott Boras client, is primed for big bucks – he leads all pitchers this year with 229 strikeouts. You won't find too many cases like Weaver, as most young pitchers this good are locked up. He could jump past $7MM. Morales has bad timing – he had his huge year in '09 but broke his leg in May of this year. He should still find a $3MM salary.
Aybar will get a raise on this year's $2.05MM, but his poor offensive 2010 should limit the increase. Kendrick, already at $1.75MM, set career highs in runs, RBIs, and steals. It's not a perfect comparable, but maybe he'll fall around Clint Barmes' $3.3MM.
Napoli could be in the position Mark Teahen, Jeremy Hermida, and Matt Lindstrom were last year – traded before the non-tender deadline. He's got 92 home runs under his belt after five seasons and already earns $3.6MM. Most backstops with Napoli's abilities are locked up; he could make over $5MM next year. Granted Napoli has only 406 career games behind the dish, and more time at first base this year, but his agent Brian Grieper can probably position him as a catcher for an arbitration hearing.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Hisanori Takahashi
When the Mets signed lefty Hisanori Takahashi in February, his recent stats in Japan described him as a flyball/command pitcher who could fill a swingman role. The screwballer's Mets deal came with a $1MM guarantee and $2MM in performance bonuses. The Pirates, Orioles, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, and Padres also expressed interest in Takahashi.
According to David Waldstein of the New York Times, Takahashi's contract includes a provision allowing him to declare free agency on October 31st, creating "a four-week window in which the Mets have exclusive negotiation rights." Typically the free agent filing period begins the day after the World Series with an exclusive window for teams for fifteen days. That'd make the filing date between November 1st and November 5th. The wrinkle: ESPN's Jayson Stark recently wrote that the annual filing, arbitration, and tender dates will be moved up this year. Allowing players to file before or during the World Series seems unlikely, however, and Takahashi's unique situation is confusing as well. We'll seek clarification on both fronts.
GM Omar Minaya told Waldstein he hopes to work out a new contract with Takahashi, although keep in mind that Minaya might not last that long at the team's helm. Takahashi told ESPN's Adam Rubin he likes New York and plans to finish his career in MLB, but not much is known beyond that. Let's take a look at Takahashi's free agent case.
The Pros
- Takahashi is versatile, having ably filled roles in the Mets' rotation and bullpen. At this point, he's actually their closer. In 64.6 innings as a starter Takahashi posted a 5.01 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 1.53 HR/9. Out of the pen he managed a 2.21 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and a 0.34 HR/9.
- He dominated lefties in 2010, posting a 11.05 K/9 while allowing no home runs in 29.3 frames. He was respectable against righties too.
- Takahashi is on the border of Type B and nothing at last check, though given the timeframe the Mets probably can't offer arbitration anyway. He won't cost a draft pick.
The Cons
- Takahashi's multiple roles in 2010 could work against him – even if he'd like another crack at starting, teams might be more enticed by his relief success.
- At 36 years old in April, Takahashi is no spring chicken. He hasn't pitched 150 innings in a season since 2007.
- Among those with 100 innings this year, Takahashi's 45.6% flyball rate is the 13th-highest. His 8.4% rate of home runs per flyball may not last, resulting in more shots leaving the yard in 2011.
The Verdict
Quality lefties are tough to find no matter what the role. Takahashi's agent Peter Greenberg figures to start out seeking a two-year deal despite his client's age. The annual guarantee could be around $2.5MM, plus incentives for starts and games finished.
First Base Options For The Pirates
Pirates GM Neal Huntington recently expressed interest in finding a platoon partner for Garrett Jones at first base next year, specifically a right-handed hitter who performs well against southpaws. MLBTR has eleven names to kick around; here they are with their work against lefties since 2008:
- Mike Napoli – .321 batting average/.415 on-base percentage/.608 slugging percentage. Napoli would be an expensive platoon bat, as he'll be getting a raise on this year's $3.6MM salary. He could help out behind the dish as well, but the Bucs already have Chris Snyder and Ryan Doumit under contract and may try to move the latter.
- Garrett Atkins – .297/.375/.468. Atkins struggled against righties and lefties this year with the Orioles, but he'd only be a minor league signing.
- Ryan Garko – .294/.373/.443. Same story as Atkins.
- Fernando Tatis – .286/.367/.435. He's in line for a minor league deal as well, but will be battling back from July labrum surgery.
- Ty Wigginton – .273/.353/.425. The Mets traded Wiggy, Jose Bautista, and Matt Peterson to the Pirates in '04 for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger. Pirates GM Dave Littlefield released Wigginton in advance of the '05 Rule 5 draft so he could take Victor Santos from the Royals.
- Melvin Mora – .283/.351/.471. He's had a resurgent year; perhaps the Rockies will look to re-sign him. Mora would be a viable candidate for the Pirates, though most of his first base experience is limited to this year.
- Andruw Jones - .215/.350/.427. He's logged only eight career games at first base.
- Troy Glaus – .222/.350/.405. Glaus could be signed on the cheap with the hope that his power returns.
- Jorge Cantu – .286/.349/.464. Cantu's stock is down, but he could be a buy-low opportunity.
- Juan Rivera – .285/.335/.514. Rivera's a trade candidate, but the Angels would have to pick up much of his $5.25MM salary for 2011. Doumit will earn a similar amount, but he's not a great fit for the Halos.
- Marcus Thames – .264/.332/.504. He doesn't have a ton of first base experience (44 games), but he will be coming off a fine season for the Yankees.
Elias Rankings Update
After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics. Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through September 18th, 2010. Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed.
Elias Rankings Update
After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics. Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through September 7th, 2010. The Google spreadsheet below has separate tabs for each position group. You can also go directly to the Google spreadsheet here. Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed.
Elias Rankings Update
After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics. Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through August 31st, 2010. The Google spreadsheet below has separate tabs for each position group. You can also go directly to the Google spreadsheet here and download it in Excel here. Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed.
A few special notes from Eddie this week. He had to enter rosters by hand, so please leave a comment if you find an error. Anyone not on an active roster or the disabled list by August 31st is ineligible – Brad Hawpe is one such example. Also, Eddie included extra tabs for NL 1B and NL OF this week showing how the calculations are done for those groups.