Tellem Discusses Rich Harden
Rich Harden's agent Arn Tellem weighed in on his client at the GM Meetings today, with the Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan among those in attendance. Tellem says Harden has "no health issues at all" despite being shut down by the Cubs with a few weeks left in the season.
Tellem didn't run into Cubs GM Jim Hendry during the Meetings, though both spent ample time in the hotel lobby. Tellem says Harden "very much likes Chicago," and expects he'll "continue to talk" to the Cubs about a possible return. Most writers expect the Cubs to move on, though. Harden is a Type B free agent; an arbitration offer seems unlikely.
Harden, 28 later this month, pitched 152.3 innings in 2008 and 141 this year, with a huge strikeout rate but a healthy dose of walks. This year, home runs and hits were up for the changeup artist.
A’s Talk: Third Base, Duchscherer
Athletics general manager Billy Beane is looking at possible third base acquisitions, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The A's face uncertainty with hot corner options Eric Chavez, Adam Kennedy, and Brett Wallace.
Slusser says the A's are emphasizing youth and "unlikely to spend much money on free agents." So you have to question my earlier guesses that the A's will sign Miguel Tejada and Jim Thome. Slusser wonders, "from a sheer speculation standpoint," if Alex Gordon, Josh Fields, or Brandon Wood could be trade possibilities. Click here to read our post about third base trade candidates.
Also, Slusser spoke to Justin Duchscherer's agent Damon Lapa. Duchscherer is doing well and "has dedicated himself to preparing for 2010." Interest in Duchscherer is strong, with the A's still in the mix. Duchscherer wants to start. Back in '08, he posted a 2.54 ERA in 22 starts.
Phillies Interested In Fernando Rodney
The Phillies are "showing preliminary interest" in free agent reliever Fernando Rodney, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News that he's reached out to five or six free agents, so Rodney is presumably among those.
The FOX writers expect Rodney "to draw heavy interest from a large number of clubs," which comes as a surprise to me. I suppose it all just depends on Rodney's demands – will he take a one-year deal at less than $8MM, and is he open to a set-up role? Here in 2009 I imagine GMs aren't terribly impressed by 37 saves when they come with a 4.40 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 4.9 BB/9. To his credit, Rodney was one of few free agent relievers with a strong groundball rate (57.9%).
Rodney could benefit from being classified as a Type B free agent rather than Type A. But with relievers, the importance of those designations seems overblown because arbitration offers are far from certain. Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, LaTroy Hawkins, Rafael Betancourt, Kevin Gregg, John Grabow, Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, Takashi Saito, and Octavio Dotel are Type A free agents, but only a handful will actually be offered arbitration.
Billy Wagner Could Accept Arbitration
Billy Wagner's agent Bean Stringfellow says not to rule out his client accepting an arbitration offer from the Red Sox, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Stringfellow said that prior to a recent meeting with his client, he believed there was no chance Wagner would accept. Wagner loved his experience with the Red Sox enough that it's now a possibility. Stringfellow "fully anticipates" an arbitration offer by the Red Sox. Wagner is a Type A free agent, so the Sox will snag two draft picks if he declines the offer and signs elsewhere.
Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports learned from Stringfellow that six teams called about Wagner so far, all of them interested in him as a closer. The writers noted that the Tigers, Astros, Rays, Orioles, and Braves have the need.
Sherman On Lackey, Phillies, Giants
The latest from Joel Sherman of the New York Post…
- The Angels' willingness to let John Lackey leave without a serious offer raises a red flag for at least a few execs with other clubs. With Lackey being the best available free agent starter, it's easy to forget that his 2009 season did not begin until May 16th due to an elbow strain. In 2008, he began on May 14th because of a triceps strain.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also has a Lackey article, and it takes a different tone. Rosenthal says the Angels would still like to re-sign Lackey, adding that "Plan B could be a renewed effort to trade for Roy Halladay."
- Heyman assesses the Phillies and attempts to douse rumors about them eyeing Chone Figgins and Halladay. He does see the needs as third base, the rotation, and the back of the bullpen. Our own Mike Axisa wondered if my Jose Valverde prediction made sense, because Valverde might prefer to sign somewhere he'll surely close. Maybe a guy like Brandon Lyon fits better. David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News says GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has reached out to at least six free agents, and Murphy provides guesses. Two clubs made trade offers as well.
- A $90MM payroll might keep the Giants out of the Matt Holliday–Jason Bay bidding. Sherman suggests the Giants are not locked into a first base acquisition in the infield – Pablo Sandoval can play both corners, and Freddy Sanchez can even be considered at third base if the Giants pursue another second baseman. Sherman says the Giants are currently looking to re-sign Brad Penny and Bengie Molina. Since he made only six starts for the Giants, you have to look to 2007 as the last time Penny truly had success. Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News believes the Giants will at least offer arbitration to Molina, which I imagine will hurt his market.
Mets Meet With Boras
Mets GM Omar Minaya met with agent Scott Boras last night at the GM Meetings for 45 minutes, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman says Matt Holliday, Alex Cora, Jarrod Washburn, and Rick Ankiel were discussed.
Of course, the Mets' plans extend beyond Boras clients, and Sherman says Bengie Molina sits atop their list of catching targets. The Mets made a play for Molina four years ago. Another target might be Chone Figgins, as suggested by SI's Jon Heyman.
Sherman sums up the Mets' offseason situation:
The Mets' priority list in order is a slugging left fielder, a high-end starting pitcher and a regular catcher. But a Mets executive said that if the club cannot land a significant left fielder they could spend more on a starter such as free agent John Lackey. For now, the Mets more are contemplating a mid-rotation type starter such as Randy Wolf, Joel Pineiro, Jason Marquis and Washburn.
In our recent Top 50 Free Agents list, we predicted the Mets will sign Holliday, Wolf, and Brad Penny. All speculation at the time, and there hasn't been any actual connection to Penny so far.
2010 Top 50 Free Agents
It's time for the fourth annual MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents list! The entire list of available free agents can be found here.
A note before we begin – this is a complicated puzzle, and I'll be satisfied if I'm correct on a quarter of these guesses. If your favorite team seems under-represented, keep in mind that the list doesn't account for trades or every single free agent.
1. Matt Holliday – Mets. The Mets could grab headlines by signing Holliday to a six or seven-year deal for more than $100MM.
2. John Lackey – Yankees. Last winter's strategy of signing the best two starters and the best hitter available contributed to the Yankees' World Series title. With rotation question marks after C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, it makes sense that the Yanks will pursue the best available starter in Lackey.
3. Jason Bay – Red Sox. It's been rumored the Red Sox are willing to offer four years and $60MM to Bay. That seems to be a fair opening bid, given his defensive struggles.
4. Chone Figgins – Angels. The Angels have internal options at third base, but he'd be hard to let go after a career-high .395 OBP and excellent defense at the hot corner.
5. Randy Wolf – Mets. The Mets regrettably chose Oliver Perez over Wolf a year ago. As the best available starter aside from Lackey, Wolf is primed to get a three-year deal worth more than $30MM.
6. Andy Pettitte – Yankees. With all the good vibes surrounding Pettitte's work this year, it's hard to see him anywhere else. The Yankees might have to guarantee more than $5.5MM this time though.
7. Jose Valverde – Phillies. One way to shore up a shaky bullpen: sign the best closer available. Few teams are seeking closers, and even fewer have money, so the Phillies should be able to get a relative bargain.
8. Marco Scutaro – Red Sox. It's difficult to place Scutaro, because not many teams with shortstop vacacies will be willing to pay the three years and $18MM+ he'll likely demand. The Sox would be getting the best available shortstop here, but they could instead choose Jed Lowrie and/or Alex Gonzalez.
9. Adrian Beltre – Twins. The Twins made a large upgrade at shortstop by acquiring J.J. Hardy. Beltre would give them fantastic left-side infield defense and another possible 20 home run bat. The Twins had interest in trading for Beltre a year ago, though the Scott Boras client added them to his no-trade clause.
10. Rich Harden – Red Sox. A one-year deal with a $7MM base salary would be difficult for Harden to resist. His injuries are maddening, but he leads free agent starters with a 10.9 K/9.
11. Mike Cameron – Padres. The Padres are tight on cash, but bringing back Cameron to play center field makes sense on a one-year deal worth $7MM or so.
12. Johnny Damon – Yankees. Most believe the Yankees will re-sign one of Damon and Hideki Matsui. Despite Matsui's World Series MVP award, Damon probably fits better given his ability to play the field more regularly.
13. Orlando Hudson – Nationals. The Nats coveted Hudson last year. Adding him now would help with their stated goal of improving up the middle.
14. Miguel Tejada – Athletics. A one-year deal to bring Tejada back would give the A's security on the left side of the infield, where they have Cliff Pennington at shortstop and Brett Wallace not quite ready at third base.
15. Joel Pineiro – Cardinals. He'd be a big loss for the Cardinals, who have rotation openings after Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Kyle Lohse. Pineiro walked just 27 in 214 innings posted a 60.5% groundball rate due to a newfound sinker.
16. Nick Johnson – Giants. A jolt of OBP at first base would do the Giants good. They were involved in talks for Johnson around the trade deadline.
17. Aroldis Chapman - Red Sox. They've been heavily involved with Chapman from the start, and may consider him a long-term investment worth more than $20MM.
18. Marlon Byrd – Rangers. Byrd is one of the better center fielders available, but not too many clubs are in the hunt at the position. The Cubs could be in the mix here after they trade Milton Bradley.
19. Vladimir Guerrero – White Sox. The White Sox would generate attention by signing Vlad as a DH and occasional right fielder. Landing Guerrero would also be a solid baseball move on a reasonable one-year deal.
20. Felipe Lopez – Dodgers. They seem ready to part ways with Orlando Hudson, and Lopez might be a bit cheaper. Lopez's 2009 season ranked fourth among all free agents in WAR.
21. Adam LaRoche – Braves. Did LaRoche's scorching stint with the Braves last year price him out of their range? The Mets, Orioles, A's, Mariners, Giants, D'Backs, and Rangers might also be in the market for a first baseman.
22. Rafael Soriano – Angels. Will the failure of Brian Fuentes prompt the Angels to add another late-inning arm? After missing most of '08, Soriano bounced back with 102 strikeouts in 75.6 innings this year.
23. Jon Garland, Dodgers. Bringing back Garland would be a safe move, though the Dodgers already declined his $10MM option. Garland required a $7.25MM guarantee a year ago, and he had a better season, so this is an iffy prediction. The Twins, Nationals, Mets, and Brewers may be among the other teams seeking an innings-eater.
24. Carl Pavano – Nationals. Pavano debuted with the Expos in '98 after being acquired in the Pedro Martinez deal. Eleven years later, Pavano surprisingly managed 33 starts. His 4.16 xFIP reveals his 5.10 ERA was misleading.
25. Brad Penny – Mets. Penny is just one of many different arms the Mets might consider as they attempt to bolster their rotation depth. No other free agent starter throws harder, so Penny's upside is still tantalizing.
26. Erik Bedard – Dodgers. If the Dodgers don't want to pony up the cash or prospects for a true ace, they could buy a Bedard lottery ticket instead.
27. Hideki Matsui – Mariners. Matsui joining the Mariners in a DH/left field role will become more likely if Ken Griffey Jr. retires.
28. Bengie Molina – Nationals. Molina is difficult to place, especially if he demands more than $5MM. With Jesus Flores coming off shoulder surgery, the Nats will probably add a veteran on a one-year deal. The Mets also may sign a catcher.
29. Mike Gonzalez – Braves. Gonzalez should be cheaper than Soriano, and the Braves need some kind of relief signing or acquisition. With available closers plentiful, the Braves could wait around until March in hopes of a bargain.
30. Jason Marquis – Diamondbacks. The D'Backs are known to crave a mid-tier veteran starter, and Marquis is one of many options. Many have speculated Marquis would like to play for the Mets, and they are a reasonable match as well.
31. Placido Polanco – Diamondbacks. Second base is another area of need for Arizona. As with the Marquis situation above, Polanco is one of several palatable free agent choices.
32. Tim Wakefield – Red Sox. Wakefield had back surgery in October, but the Red Sox will probably still view him as a bargain at $4MM.
33. Ben Sheets – Rangers. The Brewers and Rangers seem to be the most likely landing spots for Sheets, who had flexor tendon surgery in February and missed the '09 season. That injury caused a two-year deal with the Rangers to fall apart.
34. Doug Davis – Brewers. Davis was claimed off waivers by the Brewers in August, but they couldn't work out a deal with the D'Backs. At the time, Davis liked the idea of returning to Milwaukee. He'll probably have to back off his three-year demand to make it happen.
35. Jarrod Washburn – Brewers. Perhaps the Brewers won't sign these two mid-tier lefties, but they do figure to acquire a pair of starters somehow. Washburn could make it easier on the Brewers by providing a hometown discount. Otherwise, trading Mat Gamel could net an arm.
36. Russell Branyan – Mariners. Interest in a new contract is mutual. There are enough mitigating factors to make another one-year deal likely.
37. Billy Wagner – Cubs. The Cubs don't have much payroll space, and they may prefer to go with Carlos Marmol as their closer. Then again, they wouldn't do so a year ago when Marmol was coming off a good season. The Cubs could offer Wagner a chance to close, as could the Orioles, Rays, Tigers, Angels, and Braves. Even Wagner's old teams, the Phillies and Astros, have back-end bullpen concerns.
38. Juan Uribe – Mariners. Uribe was quietly very valuable in 2009, playing all around the infield for the Giants. Uribe's shortstop-third base flexibility could fit for Seattle.
39. John Smoltz – Tigers. Smoltz of course came up with the Tigers, and they considered him a year ago. They could sign him and keep an open mind as to his role.
40. Jermaine Dye – Rangers. The Rangers signing both Byrd and Dye might be a stretch, though Dye should be used strictly at DH. Given his second half decline he should be affordable.
41. Mark DeRosa – Phillies. I debated flipping the DeRosa-Beltre predictions, as both the Phillies and Twins have a need at third base. DeRosa, a former Penn quarterback, has been linked to the Phils for years.
42. Coco Crisp – Royals. The Royals already declined his $8MM option. But Crisp likes Kansas City and the Royals still need a center fielder, so an incentive-based deal could happen.
43. Carlos Delgado – Orioles. In Delgado, the Orioles could add a possible 30-home run bat with little risk. And Delgado could benefit from some time at DH.
44. Orlando Cabrera – Blue Jays. O-Cab might find a small market for his services this winter, even without a draft pick cost attached.
45. Gregg Zaun – Rays. Zaun can void his $2MM club option if the Rays exercise it, but he might be swayed by the chance to start.
46. Jim Thome – Athletics. The A's should have their pick of affordable free agent DHs. Thome's not done; he hit .249/.366/.481 this year.
47. Fernando Rodney – Tigers. I have no idea where Rodney will sign. No one will want to pay a premium for his 37 saves. He might be best-served returning to Detroit on a one-year deal worth $6MM or so.
48. Xavier Nady – Diamondbacks. The D'Backs will probably tender a contract to Conor Jackson, but Nady could still be helpful at first base and left field. He's a Scott Boras client, but he missed most of the season due to Tommy John surgery.
49. Kiko Calero - Rays. Calero's a health risk, so he might be cheap despite a 1.95 ERA and 10.4 K/9 in 60 innings this year. He's the type of reliever the Rays figure to add.
50. Rafael Betancourt – Rockies. I think the Rockies will work out a two-year deal to retain Betancourt as their setup man. It could include incentives for closing, should Huston Street depart after '10 or struggle before then.
Honorable mentions: Justin Duchscherer, Troy Glaus, Alex Gonzalez, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Brett Myers, Vicente Padilla, Chan Ho Park, J.J. Putz, Takashi Saito, Jack Wilson
Blue Jays, D’Backs Discussed Snyder For Overbay
SUNDAY, 3:25pm: The Toronto Blue Jays called off the swap because of concerns about Snyder's surgically repaired back, according to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic.
2:16pm: In an update to last night's article, Gilbert reports that the deal has been put on hold, according to a Major League source.
SATURDAY, 7:44pm: MLB.com's Steve Gilbert cites a Major League source who says the two sides are "making progress" in their discussions.
12:31pm: Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports that the two teams are discussing a Snyder for Lyle Overbay swap. He mentions that it's "unclear how far along the trade talks are."
10:05am: MLBTR has learned that the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks are in trade talks for catcher Chris Snyder.
Snyder would be a good fit for the Jays, who have catcher Rod Barajas eligible for free agency. The 28-year-old Snyder hit .200/.333/.352 for the D'Backs in a season marred by a back injury (he had surgery in September). Presumably the Blue Jays' doctors would have to check him out before a deal could be completed. The other issue would be money – Snyder is owed $11.25MM over the next two seasons. Snyder received the contract on the strength of his '08 season (.237/.348/.452) but has since lost the starting job to Miguel Montero.
Eleven Option Decisions Made Today
Today was a busy day for options, as eleven decisions were reached. Here's a summary:
- The White Sox declined Jermaine Dye's $12MM option, paying a $950K buyout.
- The Phillies exercised their $9MM option on Cliff Lee.
- The Diamondbacks exercised their $8.5MM option on Brandon Webb.
- The Royals declined options on Coco Crisp, Miguel Olivo, and Yasuhiko Yabuta.
- The Brewers declined David Weathers' $3.7MM option, paying a $400K buyout.
- The Mets declined J.J. Putz's $9.15MM option, paying a $1MM buyout.
- The Rockies declined options on Yorvit Torrealba and Alan Embree.
- The Nationals declined Austin Kearns' $10MM option, paying a $1MM buyout.
- Our 2010 MLB Free Agents list shows the remaining options: Ramon Hernandez, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, Gregg Zaun, Alex Gonzalez, Jack Wilson, Pedro Feliz, Carl Crawford, Manny Ramirez, Tim Hudson, Braden Looper, Tim Wakefield, Rafael Betancourt, and Brian Shouse. Decisions on several of these have already been publicized though.
Nationals Decline Option On Austin Kearns
The Nationals declined their $10MM option on right fielder Austin Kearns, according to the AP. They'll instead pay a $1MM buyout. Kearns signed his three-year, $17.5MM deal in January of '07, and gave the Nats one solid year for their money. He represents the last of the day's multiple obvious option decisions.
Kearns, 29, hit .195/.336/.305 in 211 plate appearances this year. He missed a chunk of the season due to thumb surgery. Based on UZR, he still plays a strong right field.