The Offseason Begins
Congratulations to the Yankees on winning the World Series. Now the offseason officially begins. Players may file for free agency, and teams have an exclusive 15-day period to negotiate and sign them. On November 20th, free agents can negotiate and sign with any team. The GM Meetings are set to begin Monday in Chicago.
Danks Hopes To Sign Extension
White Sox lefty John Danks hopes to sign a multiyear extension with the White Sox, according to MLB.com's Scott Merkin. The 24-year-old is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter.
Though he was thrilled to receive it, Danks turned down a four-year, $15.5MM offer from the White Sox on the advice of his agent Jeff Berry before the season. Gavin Floyd accepted the same offer. With another fine season in the books, Danks will probably require $16MM+ to cover his three arbitration years and $11-13MM per each free agent year.
Cardinals Release Brad Thompson
The Cardinals released righty Brad Thompson today, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The arbitration-eligible Thompson would've been a likely non-tender in mid-December anyway.
Thompson, 28 in January, posted a 4.84 ERA in 80 innings this year (eight starts, 24 relief appearances). He's typically shown strong control and home run prevention but a weak strikeout rate. His best asset is his ability to get groundballs – 52.7% of the time this year. If Thompson has a successful '10 season for his new club, that team could elect to retain him for '11 as an arbitration-eligible player.
Offseason Outlook: Florida Marlins
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Marlins. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C – John Baker – $400K
C – Ronny Paulino – $440K+
1B – Jorge Cantu – $3.5MM+
2B – Dan Uggla – $5.35MM+
SS – Hanley Ramirez – $7MM
3B – Emilio Bonifacio – $400K
IF/OF – Alfredo Amezaga – $1.3MM+
1B/3B – Wes Helms – $950K
LF – Chris Coghlan – $400K
CF – Cody Ross – $2.225MM+
RF – Brett Carroll – $400K
OF – Cameron Maybin – $400K
? –
SP – Ricky Nolasco – $2.4MM+
SP – Josh Johnson – $1.4MM+
SP – Chris Volstad – $400K
SP – Sean West – $400K
SP – Andrew Miller – $1.575MM
Other candidates: Rick VandenHurk – $400K
RP – Leo Nunez – $415K+
RP – Matt Lindstrom – $410K+
RP – Brian Sanches – $400K
RP – Renyel Pinto – $404K+
RP – Burke Badenhop – $400K
RP – Dan Meyer – $400K
RP – Carlos Martinez – $400K
Non-tender candidates: Jeremy Hermida, Renyel Pinto, Alfredo Amezaga
Assuming Hermida is non-tendered, the Marlins will have about $32MM committed before arbitration raises to Paulino, Cantu, Uggla, Amezaga, Ross, Nolasco, Johnson, Nunez, Lindstrom, and Pinto. The huge arbitration group should put the Fish around $45MM, even if Pinto and Amezaga are also non-tendered. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Marlins entered 2009 with a $36.8MM payroll.
Presumably the non-tender candidates will be shopped, and it would not be surprising to see many of the other arb-eligible players available on the trade market. Cantu and Uggla seem particularly likely to be traded, while the Marlins hope to sign Johnson to an extension.
In a recent mailbag for MLB.com, Joe Frisaro answered a question about a possible Uggla-Javier Vazquez swap. Uggla fits the Braves' need for right-handed power, though the team's first base and left field vacancies don't match up. Plus, the Braves and Marlins are in direct competition. The Tigers, Twins, Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers might need help at second base, while Uggla could theoretically play third base for the Orioles, Twins, Angels, A's, Mariners, Astros, or Cardinals. Of course, trading Uggla would leave the Marlins weak at second or third base themselves.
Cantu has much less trade value than Uggla. Ross fits somewhere in-between, given the weak market for center fielders. It'd make sense for the Marlins to seek young pitching in any deal, though I expect them to improve on this year's 4.57 rotation ERA regardless of any acquisitions. Gaby Sanchez can step in at first base for Cantu after hitting .289/.374/.475 at Triple A. Also, Logan Morrison logged a .411 OBP as a 21-year-old at Double A.
The Marlins deserve praise for last year's bullpen-building – Nunez was acquired for Mike Jacobs, while Kiko Calero, Brendan Donnelly, and Sanches were signed to minor league deals. With Calero and Donnelly likely headed for greener pastures, Lindstrom a question mark, and Pinto getting pricey, look for the Marlins to repeat the process.
Same old story for the Marlins for 2010 - they'll probably find a way to compete on a shoestring budget. The light at the end of the tunnel: the new stadium opens in 2012.
Pirates Talk: Iwamura, Ankiel, Wilson
As usual, Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has the latest on the Pirates…
- The Akinori Iwamura addition does not necessarily mean more significant moves are coming. The Pirates are comfortable with their internal options.
- The Pirates intend to inquire on Rick Ankiel when free agency begins. Moreso than Chris Bootcheck, perhaps this is a sign that the team is not letting bad blood linger with Scott Boras from the Pedro Alvarez situation.
- Kovacevic says Ronny Cedeno is not a lock at shorstop, and there is at least some mutual interest in bringing Jack Wilson back. First, the Mariners would have to buy out Wilson's $8.4MM club option.
- In another article, Kovacevic discusses the team's out-of-character acquisition of Iwamura. Kovacevic calls it Neal Huntington's "first major transaction prioritizing the present above the future," since Iwamura is under relatively pricey and under control for one season while Jesse Chavez is cheap and under team control through 2014. Iwamura is now the Pirates' highest-paid player. Huntington has interest in exploring an extension with him at some point.
- On a related note, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs explains that "just because a team won’t be contending in 2010 doesn’t mean they should avoid investing in the 2010 product."
- An article at Beyond the Boxscore explains that the Pirates came out a winner on the Iwamura-Chavez deal, but the Rays had little leverage.
Tim Hudson Extension Close
Multiple journalists said to expect the Braves' three-year extension for Tim Hudson to be finished last week, but that didn't happen. David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution explains why:
The delay on Hudson extension resulted from the team having to find a doctor the insurance company approved of to do the physical. But they got the doc and Huddy passed the physical, from what I’m told. If so, it shouldn’t be much longer before they sign this deal and it gets announced.
The Braves may also prefer to wait until after the World Series to announce the deal, though Freddy Sanchez's extension with the Giants was publicized mid-Series. MLB.com's Mark Bowman agrees with O'Brien's info.
Hudson's signing could lead the Braves to trade a starter for a hitter. O'Brien discussed the idea of trading Javier Vazquez in a blog post yesterday.
Dodgers Interested In Re-Signing Vicente Padilla
The Dodgers signed righty Vicente Padilla to a minor league contract on August 19th; he'd been designated for assignment by the Rangers. Padilla pitched well in 39.3 regular season innings and in two out of three postseason starts. According to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti recently expressed interest in re-signing Padilla. The interest appears mutual.
Padilla's agent Adam Katz downplayed a recent "hunting accident" wherein the pitcher grazed himself in the thigh with a bullet. Padilla reportedly spent less than an hour being treated in a Nicaraguan hospital. Colletti told Hernandez he didn't know enough about the matter to determine whether it would affect his interest in re-signing Padilla. More troubling is Padilla's lengthy history of alcohol problems, but most MLB teams tend to ignore DUIs.
Padilla certainly won't be signing another three-year, $33.75MM deal. He might be able to get one year and $5-8MM. Aside from the Dodgers, the Brewers, Mets, and Diamondbacks are three clubs known to be hunting for starting pitching.
Discussion: Rich Hill
Rich Hill was a late bloomer for the Cubs. The lefty with the Bugs Bunny curveball always had big strikeout rates in the minors, but started to get a handle on his control in '05 at age 25. That year he whiffed 194 against 35 walks in 130.6 innings across three levels. Hill's Triple A dominance continued the following year, when he struck out 135 and walked 21 in 100 innings. He was promoted to the bigs and showed promise in 16 starts, aside from some ill-advised comments in May. 2007 was Hill's breakout season – he made 32 starts and struck out 183 in 195 innings.
The wheels fell off in 2008, as Hill struggled in Spring Training and then opened the season with 15 walks in 19.6 innings across five starts. Hill's control problems seemed to be at least partially mental, and Lou Piniella didn't have much patience. He was demoted to Triple A in May, and the control issues persisted in the minors. Hill insisted his problems stemmed from a back injury and not Steve Blass Disease.
Like he did with Felix Pie, Cubs GM Jim Hendry gave up on Hill that winter and shipped him to Baltimore. The Cubs received cash considerations for Hill. He was out of options, so he needed to land with a team that could let him take his lumps in the Majors. Hill's control issues continued in his 13 starts, and elbow and shoulder injuries cut his season short. He had labrum surgery in August, and last night became a free agent after the Orioles outrighted him. The O's have interest in re-signing him to a minor league deal, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
If he doesn't re-sign with Baltimore, where might Hill land as he rehabs his shoulder and attempts to recapture the 2006-07 magic? San Diego is a nice low-pressure environment for pitchers. The Mariners had interest in Hill a year ago, and Seattle would be another smart landing spot. Hill was born in Boston, and Theo Epstein likes his reclamation projects, but getting out of the AL East might be a good thing. What kind of future do you see for Hill?
Trade Market: Center Fielders
Next up in our Trade Market series, center fielders. We discussed free agents at the position here.
- Curtis Granderson, Tigers. Granderson, 29 in March, slipped to .249/.327/.453 in 710 plate appearances this year, but he did hit 30 home runs with 72 walks. David Golebiewski of FanGraphs considers Granderson's slash line misleading. Granderson struggled mightily against lefties; last year's .739 OPS against them was the only decent showing of his career. He's owed $25.75MM for the next three seasons and is well worth it. As far as trade speculation, it stems entirely from Lynn Henning of the Detroit News.
- Cody Ross, Marlins. Ross is here simply because he's an arbitration-eligible Marlins player. He turns 29 in December and is coming off a .270/.321/.469 performance with 24 home runs. He plays center and right field; his defense is hard to judge statistically.
- Aaron Rowand, Giants. We're guessing the Giants wouldn't mind unloading the $36MM owed to Rowand for the next three seasons. The 32-year-old has a limited no-trade clause.
- Gary Matthews Jr., Angels. With two years and $23MM remaining on his contract, Matthews wants a trade and an everyday role. Good luck with that.
- Vernon Wells, Blue Jays. With $107MM coming over the next five years and a full no-trade clause, Wells' brutal contract puts Rowand and Matthews to shame. Hopefully Wells can bounce back in 2010; he's having wrist surgery soon.
- B.J. Upton, Rays. Golebiewski analyzed Upton's struggles this year and wondered if poor health was to blame. The 25-year-old at least continued to play a fine center field. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time, and I'd be surprised to see the Rays sell low on him.
- Jody Gerut, Brewers. Gerut is a non-tender candidate after a .230/.279/.376 showing, but the Brewers may need him if they don't re-sign Mike Cameron.
- Willy Taveras, Reds. Taveras was non-tendered a year ago, and now the Reds may release him with $4MM remaining on his contract.
- Felix Pie, Orioles. The O's may prefer to keep Pie around to see if his scorching August was a sign of things to come. Then again, the 24-year-old may have more value to another team since the O's can use Nolan Reimold in left field and have Adam Jones entrenched in center.
Heyman On Damon, Scutaro, Red Sox
The latest from SI's Jon Heyman…
- The Yankees are interested in re-signing Johnny Damon, and may be willing to offer two years and $16MM. Heyman believes the White Sox and Giants will be among the other suitors.
- Heyman says the Reds "could do worse" than Marco Scutaro at shortstop. The Reds first-round pick (#12 overall would be protected), but they probably don't have the payroll space to add Scutaro unless they subtract a big salary.
- The Red Sox could look to trade Mike Lowell or David Ortiz, if they acquire two hitters this winter.