Olney Speculation: Penny For Donald?
This is 100% speculation on Buster Olney's part, but it makes for a good discussion topic. Should the Phillies trade infield prospect Jason Donald for starter Brad Penny? (I repeat – this is not an actual trade rumor).
The first question is how much Penny would help the Phillies. He's rung up a 5.96 ERA in nine American League starts, and has a 5.47 xFIP to match. Olney discounts Pedro Martinez for the Phillies in part because he's a flyball pitcher, but Penny's groundball rate this year isn't impressive at 38.4%. Olney's other argument against Pedro is that he does not go deep into games, but Penny's averaged only 5.37 innings per start this year. So if the Phillies like Penny, shouldn't they like Pedro almost as much? (They actually have no interest in Pedro, by the way).
The other question is whether six years of Donald is too much to give up for four or fewer months of Penny. Does Donald profile as a super-utility player in the future, as Baseball America wondered in their '09 Handbook?
Advertise With MLB Trade Rumors
It's time to think about June ad campaigns. If you're looking to reach 18-34 year-old (mostly) male diehard baseball fans, email me at dierkes@gmail.com.
2010 Options: Arizona Diamondbacks
Let's take a look at the 2010 options facing the Diamondbacks.
- Brandon Webb – $8.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout. Webb has missed most of the season due to shoulder bursitis, but the option for next year is still an easy decision to exercise for one of the NL's best pitchers. Webb's future should be interesting to follow.
- Jon Garland – $10MM mutual option ($2.5MM buyout if club declines, $1MM buyout if player declines). My guess is that it will be the D'Backs declining, but there's still plenty of season left for the innings-eater to endear himself to the team. Garland is a strong trade candidate, however. If dealt, his new team cannot offer arbitration if he's a Type A free agent.
- Chad Tracy – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout. Tracy is hitting .184/.246/.333 in 126 plate appearances, so it looks like the team will take the buyout.
- Jon Rauch – $2.9MM club option – exercised. The D'Backs had to make this decision within five days after the end of the 2008 World Series. They probably regret it.
Draft Roundup: Pirates, Padres, Angels
A few draft links for Friday…
- Chuck Finder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette talked to Pirates GM Neal Huntington and president Frank Coonelly. Huntington said signability is not "a sole driving factor," while Coonelly talked about wanting to get players signed quickly. The Pirates seem to be leaning toward pitching with the #4 pick based on comments from scouting director Greg Smith. ESPN's Keith Law predicted the Pirates will take high school infielder Bobby Borchering, Baseball America went with college righty Kyle Gibson, and MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo picked Aaron Crow. Huntington said that the team's international dealings and the draft are "independent entities." In other words, they won't go cheap in the draft in order to sign Miguel Angel Sano.
- Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune says the Padres are eyeing Dustin Ackley, Donovan Tate (Boras clients), high school righty Zach Wheeler, college lefty Mike Minor, and Crow at #3. BA predicted Grant Green (another Boras client), Law chose Crow, and Mayo went with Minor.
- The Angels have five picks in the first 48, according to Kevin Baxter of the L.A. Times. The Halos seem to be looking at prep players: Mike Trout, Everett Williams, Jiovanni Mier, and Tyler Skaggs.
- Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts has a Q&A with Baseball America's Jim Callis.
- Callis talked to scouts about righties Crow and Tanner Scheppers.
Marlins Interested In Daniel Cabrera
According to Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, the Marlins are interested in righty Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera was designated for assignment by the Nationals on Tuesday. Berardino notes that Marlins pitching coach Mark Wiley worked with Cabrera in Baltimore in '04.
Back when Cabrera was a free agent, he reportedly drew interest from eleven clubs (the Pirates and Mets included).
Brett Myers May Need Hip Surgery
6:51pm: Ed Price of MLB Fanhouse has a bit more:
"I don't think we can do anything right now," a Phillies official told FanHouse. "I don't think that [Myers injury] hastens it one way or another."
5:17pm: According to Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer:
After having an MRI today, Phillies pitcher Brett Myers was told that there was fraying to the labrum in his right hip, an injury that could require surgery and jeopardize the remainder of his season.
ESPN's Jayson Stark mentioned earlier today that the Phillies are looking everywhere for starters, and have inquired about Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, Doug Davis, Erik Bedard, Cliff Lee, Aaron Harang, Brad Penny, Chris Young and Jason Marquis. Ruben Amaro Jr. might want to acquire two.
Bad timing for Myers, who is eligible for free agency after the season.
Odds & Ends: Draft, Rangers, Feliz
Another collection of random links…
- A fresh fantasy baseball mailbag over at RotoAuthority, where I address David Ortiz, Francisco Liriano, and more.
- The Orioles claimed pitcher Dave Davidson off waivers from the Marlins and sent him to Triple A, according to Roch Kubatko of MASN.
- Matt Belisle cleared waivers and accepted his Triple A assignment, according to Jack Etkin of Inside the Rockies.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo predicts the top 20 picks in the June draft. Mike Minor to the Padres, Aaron Crow to the Pirates?
- Rangers owner Tom Hicks might be willing to sell his controlling interest in the team, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
- Scott Lauber of The News Journal thinks Pedro Feliz is changing the Phillies' mind about his $5MM option for 2010 with his .307/.373/.433 start. His 10% walk rate is a career best.
- Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues discusses the Mark DeRosa-Yankees rumor.
- Alexei Ramirez is being sued for $20MM in the Dominican Republic "for allegedly violating a contract he signed with local talent scouts before inking a major league contract." Not sure how they arrived at that figure.
Stark On Peavy, Oswalt, Phillies, DeRosa, Giants
Let's take a look at the latest Rumblings and Grumblings column from ESPN's Jayson Stark.
- The Padres' recent winning streak has not changed their intention of trading Jake Peavy. The Dodgers and Cubs are in Peavy's first tier of choices, follwed by the Giants, Cardinals, and Astros. The Angels would be the one AL team he'd consider. The East Coast is a long shot. Also, Peavy will want his 2011-13 partial no-trade clause to become a full no-trade. Peavy's friend Roy Oswalt has been unsuccessful in lobbying Astros owner Drayton McLane, as the 'Stros can't take on Peavy's contract. As for the Dodgers, GM Ned Colletti told the L.A. Times he hasn't talked to the Padres about Peavy since the pitcher vetoed the White Sox deal.
- Stark talked to scouts who believe Oswalt has "lost his edge" and needs a change of scenery. The Phillies have inquired on him, but they've asked about everyone: Peavy, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, Doug Davis, Erik Bedard, Cliff Lee, Aaron Harang, Brad Penny, Chris Young and Jason Marquis. Popular Phillies trade targets include Lou Marson, Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, Travis D'Arnaud, Freddy Galvis, Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, and Antonio Bastardo.
- The Braves are interested in bringing Mark DeRosa back to Atlanta. He came up with them and was non-tendered in '04 after tearing his ACL. But to deal young arms, the Braves would want an impact bat. Stark says they're "mostly listening" rather than shopping Jeff Francoeur. His trade value is difficult to gauge.
- The Mets seem content to wait out the first base trade market.
- The Giants seek a middle-of-the-order bat, and Jonathan Sanchez is being dangled. Three targets they haven't had success on are Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, and possibly Carlos Lee. Lee, according to one Stark source, doesn't intend to waive his no-trade for anyone.
Less Than 10% Chance To Make Playoffs
Which teams are most likely to become sellers in the next few months leading up to the July 31st trade deadline? To help determine that, let's take a look at Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds report. The report gives the following eleven teams less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs:
- Pirates – 9.46%
- Giants – 8.78%
- Mariners – 6.14%
- Rockies: 4.84%
- Athletics: 4.36%
- White Sox: 4.33%
- Marlins: 3.20%
- Orioles: 2.77%
- Diamondbacks: 2.58%
- Astros: 2.25%
- Nationals: 0.52%
The report likes the 20-28 Indians more than the 21-25 White Sox, because Cleveland has a better run differential. The report gives the Tribe a 14.4% playoff chance. The Padres have pushed themselves up to 11.94%.
As far as pure offensive production this year, your trade candidate leaders from these eleven are Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Brad Hawpe, and Nick Johnson. This year's top pitchers from these non-contenders include Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain, Wandy Rodriguez, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, and Doug Davis. I'm not sure whether Buehrle, Cain, and Rodriguez will actually hit the market.
2010 Options: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals' lone 2010 option is for closer Ryan Franklin. It's a $2.75MM club option with a $250K buyout. Franklin has done a fine job this year, and the option is likely to be exercised.
The Cards have several players who will be eligible for free agency after this season:
- Troy Glaus. We'll learn more about Glaus' prognosis next week; he could be out for the season. The third base picture in 2010 could involve a player the Cardinals acquire this summer, or top prospect Brett Wallace.
- Joel Pineiro. Pineiro owes his success this year to the highest groundball rate in the game. His strikeout rate is terribly low, but so is his walk rate. He's earning $7.5MM this year on a contract signed in a different economic climate.
- Khalil Greene. Greene's having another lost season, dealing with anxiety issues.
- Todd Wellemeyer. He's been unable to duplicate last year's control, and has been dealt a .348 BABIP as well.
- Rick Ankiel. He's been plagued by a sore shoulder and side this year, playing in just 25 games. Colby Rasmus will be entrenched in center field by 2010. Ankiel still has time to become a decent trade chip for the Cards.
- Others: Trever Miller, Jason LaRue.