Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers
Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Brewers. Here's what we wrote about them on October 16th. Changes for 2009:
Additions: Trevor Hoffman, Braden Looper, Jorge Julio, R.J. Swindle, Chase Wright, Craig Counsell (re-signed), Joe Koshansky, Casey McGehee, Chris Duffy, Chris Capuano (re-signed), Wes Littleton. Midseason: Todd Coffey
Subtractions: C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Gabe Kapler, Russell Branyan, Ray Durham, Salomon Torres, Guillermo Mota, Brian Shouse, Eric Gagne
The Brewers' batting lineup remains unchanged for 2009 (GM Doug Melvin decided not to trade Mike Cameron). They ranked 7th in the NL last year with 4.63 runs scored per game. Using CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool, the Brewers project to score 4.86 runs per game in '09. The projection system sees better seasons from Hart, Braun, Fielder, Weeks, and Hall.
It will be impossible to replicate the 3.86 ERA posted by last year's starters. 329 of the rotation's 983.3 innings came from Sabathia and Sheets at a 2.52 ERA. Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra form an interesting front two, but Melvin's main import was Looper for $4.75MM after his bid to retain Sabathia fell short. Using a rotation of Gallardo, Parra, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Looper, and Wright, I tweaked CHONE's innings totals and arrived at a projected 4.44 ERA for the '09 rotation.
The bullpen, which posted a 3.89 ERA in 472.3 innings last year, has been overhauled again. Many of last year's offenders are gone, with Hoffman signed to take over closing duties once he's healthy. Julio was also added to the mix. Carlos Villanueva quietly posted a 2.12 ERA and 4.43 K/BB ratio in 59.3 relief innings last year. All in all, the '09 bullpen projects to a 3.84 ERA. The Brewers' defense was third in the NL last year according to The Fielding Bible II. The defense remains the same, except for subtractions of Kapler, Branyan, and Durham.
So perhaps the Brewers will score more runs, but the main difference is obviously their rotation. Right now they project as an 85 win team, which should keep them in the wild card race.
Bottom line: The Brewers did little to replace Sabathia and Sheets. But with a breakout or two and/or another big summer trade, the Brewers may return to the playoffs in 2009.
Odds & Ends: Sheffield, Morillo, Perdomo
I think you would all agree that today should be a federal holiday. Monday links to tide you over until games start…
- According to David Lennon of Newsday, Gary Sheffield expected to get a call from Albert Pujols about possibly playing for the Cardinals, before the Mets signed him.
- Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post says the Rockies' acquisition of Jason Hammel may mean Juan Morillo's time with the team is drawing to a close. Morillo throws in the high 90s with poor control, and he's out of options.
- Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic talked to John Dewan about The Fielding Bible and the D'Backs' defense.
- Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News says the Giants continue to try to work out a trade for Rule 5 pick Luis Perdomo, who will otherwise have to be offered back to the Cardinals.
- Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star has a great profile of Zack Greinke.
- Baseball America's Matt Eddy has the latest minor league transactions.
- John Hickey recently wrote about Mariners third baseman Adrian Beltre. Beltre, a Boras client, is entering his contract year.
Halladay Situation Looms Over Blue Jays
We talked about Jake Peavy, so we might as well bring up Roy Halladay too. Which would you rather have?
In the Globe and Mail today, Jeff Blair says Halladay's future is the 2009 storyline for the Blue Jays. Halladay is signed through 2010, and GM J.P. Ricciardi has been all over the map in his comments about trading his ace. At the least, the situation seems similar to Peavy in that the GM is not thinking about making a trade right now.
As for the possibility of an extension, Halladay said he'd prefer to wait until the offseason but added, "circumstances can change." Halladay commented to the Toronto Star about the trade talk:
"For me, I just feel like it's a different situation. I'm still under contract for two years and unless you force something, create a big stir, it's not even an option for me. I feel like I'm still happy here. I feel like I have a chance to win here and that would be my ultimate goal, to win a World Series here, more than anywhere else."
More Peavy Chatter
How about a little more Jake Peavy chatter, courtesy of Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune? Krasovic sums up the situation: Peavy and GM Kevin Towers hope the Padres will contend and trading the ace will not become an issue. But with Peavy earning nearly 30% of the payroll and the Padres looking questionable, there's a good chance this will come up again near the trade deadline.
Krasovic adds that the Dodgers and Cubs "interest both the Padres and Peavy." He says "a person close to Peavy said those two remain the most likely choices for a trade." Peavy still prefers the National League, though I can envision a potential match with the Angels a few months from now. Here on April 6th, what's your Peavy prediction?
14 Teams Cut Payroll
According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, 14 of the 30 MLB teams cut Opening Day payroll this year compared to last year. He adds that 10 of the 14 sliced the budget by at least $10MM. The Yankees' spending spree still led to an $8MM payroll cut. The Cubs had the largest bump at $16.5MM (despite cost-cutting moves such as not offering arbitration to Kerry Wood and trading Mark DeRosa). The Padres had the biggest reduction at almost $20MM.
Sheffield, Mets Agree To Deal
SUNDAY, 2:40pm: Matthew Cerrone from MetsBlog tells us that Nick Evans was optioned to AAA in order to make room for Sheffield.
4:32pm: Mets GM Omar Minaya announced the signing, which is pending a physical. Will he help? A few projections:
Sheffield came up as a 20 year-old Brewers shortstop; he's now hanging on as a 40 year-old Mets platoon outfielder. Sheffield was willing to waive his no-trade clause for the Mets way back in November of '97, when the Marlins had their fire sale (according to a Jon Heyman Newsday article). He was eventually dealt to the Dodgers in May of '98.
2:33pm: SI.com's Jon Heyman says Sheffield agreed to sign with the Mets. An announcement is expected this afternoon.
12:08pm: Sherman adds that Mets GM Omar Minaya spoke to Sheffield directly recently to explain how he'd fit with the team. Meanwhile, several Phillies players have contacted Sheffield to lobby him to sign.
11:23am: According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets are close to signing Gary Sheffield. The Mets plan to give him significant playing time. They'd only have to pay $400K and would consider Sheffield an option in both outfield corners. Sherman's source said:
"Unless something drastic happens, he is a Met. Someone would have to offer him a second year, and I just don't see that happening."
David Lennon of Newsday believes Sheffield could sign with the Mets as soon as tonight.
Odds & Ends: Fogg, Payrolls, Padres, Nady
Links for Friday…
- Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post says the Orioles have "mild interest" in Josh Fogg. If Fogg can't find an appealing job elsewhere he'll report to Triple A Colorado Springs for the Rockies.
- Via the Twitter feed of John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer…the Reds have talked about Geoff Jenkins and Frank Catalanotto but nothing is close.
- Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker has a Sports Hochi report saying recently released pitcher Ken Kadokura is reaching out to the Cardinals and Orioles.
- Ryan Shealy cleared waivers and was sent to Triple A, clearing up the Royals' first base/DH logjam.
- The website FINalternatives.com says Rangers owner Tom Hicks defaulted on more than $500MM in loans.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks at the payrolls for the Mets and Yankees.
- Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune says Hal Steinbrenner "told close friends he plans on hiring Lou Piniella as a consultant when his managerial contract with the Cubs runs out after the 2010 season."
- According to Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Padres GM Kevin Towers said he still might add another starting pitcher.
- Albert Chen of Sports Illustrated writes about the advanced defensive metrics that are becoming prevalent in the game.
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs writes about the ethics of service time manipulation.
- SI.com's Jon Heyman noted yesterday that "The Giants like Xavier Nady and wouldn't mind bringing the University of California product home at some point."
Brewers Claim Joe Koshansky
Joe Koshansky's time as a Ranger didn't last long. According to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy, the Brewers claimed the first baseman today and optioned him to Triple A Nashville. Tony Gwynn Jr. will join him there, as he cleared waivers.
Koshansky, 27 in May (just like me!), hit .300/.380/.600 at Triple A in '08, enjoying the friendly Security Service Field in Colorado Springs. His road line was .253/.340/.515. Greer Stadium, home of the Nashville Sounds, is much different.
Gwynn, 26, hit .275/.328/.331 in Triple A last year. Baseball America liked his defense back in their '07 Handbook.
Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels
Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Angels. Here's what we wrote about them on October 15th. Changes for 2009:
Additions: Brian Fuentes, Bobby Abreu, Juan Rivera (re-signed), Darren Oliver (accepted arbitration)
Subtractions: Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Garret Anderson, Jon Garland, Darren O'Day. Midseason: Casey Kotchman
The Angels were 10th in the AL last year with 4.72 runs scored per game. GM Tony Reagins wasn't able to retain Teixeira, but Abreu for less than 3% of the guaranteed money ain't bad. CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool suggest this team will score 5.16 runs per game in '09. The Angels' offense is better than I realized.
If last year's run prevention holds up, the Angels project to win around 95 games. Let's take a closer look.
The '08 rotation posted a 4.14 ERA in 1012 innings, and they've since subtracted Garland and his 4.90 mark in favor of Kelvim Escobar (once he's ready). Throw in Dustin Moseley as the sixth man and the rotation projects around 4.10. The problem is that Ervin Santana and John Lackey are ailing and may not combine for 56 starts again. Still, if Santana and Lackey can combine for 300 innings the Angels should be fine. Nobody is out for the season currently. The Angels' toughest division rival, the Athletics, have at least as much rotation uncertainty.
Last year's bullpen posted a 3.69 ERA in 439.3 innings. I liked the Fuentes signing. Natural regression probably puts the bullpen closer to 4.00, but that's not too bad.
Defensively the Angels ranked 9th in the AL according to The Fielding Bible II. They may slip a bit further without Kotchman and Teixeira at first base.
All in all I see the Angels winning 90-91 games as presently constructed. Obviously the health of the rotation is a huge variable, but I imagine Reagins will make an acquisition if one of the injuries turns out to be major.
Bottom line: The Angels patched over their free agent losses with more affordable players in Fuentes and Abreu. The Halos again have a strong club barring a rotation catastrophe.
Heyman On Peavy, Tigers, Cliff Lee
The latest from SI.com's Jon Heyman…
- Heyman lists 30 breakout candidates for 2009, headed by Paul Maholm of the Pirates.
- Padres GM Kevin Towers had this to say regarding trading Jake Peavy midseason: "If we start spinning our wheels, we might engage in discussions." ESPN's Buster Olney also wrote about Peavy this morning, noting that the Cubs were "much closer than anybody realized at the time" to acquiring Peavy this winter. Towers gave Olney a similar quote about Peavy – he doesn't want to think about it right now but if the team is out of contention it's possible.
- Heyman names the Tigers and Blue Jays as teams that may look to dump salary this summer. He speculates on names such as Jeremy Bonderman, Brandon Inge, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells, and Scott Rolen.
- Cliff Lee is a tricky case for an extension, but the Indians told his agent Darek Braunecker they'd let him throw out a bid. Braunecker didn't bite, and negotiations are not expected to take place during the season. You have to wonder if Lee will be traded next winter or at the 2010 trade deadline.