Marlins’ New Stadium Approved

TUESDAY, 1:26pm: Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel says the new stadium should mean Hanley stays put and the team raises payroll, among other things.

MONDAY, 10:43pm: Get ready for the Miami Marlins.  According to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro, Miami-Dade county commissioners voted in favor of a new retractable-roof stadium for the Fish.  The goal is to have the new facility open by 2012, at which time the team will be renamed the Miami Marlins.

Hanley Ramirez is signed through 2014, so hopefully he'll still be the face of the franchise when the new stadium opens.  The Marlins figure to become a more consistent threat in the NL East if they establish a reasonable payroll.

Keith Law Q&A

Recently ESPN's Keith Law kindly answered a few questions for MLB Trade Rumors.  Law formerly served as Blue Jays Special Assistant to the GM, and has spent the last few years as the lead analyst for ESPN's Scouts, Inc. branch.  Essential Law links: his MLB draft blog, Stephen Strasburg analysis, his general ESPN blog, and his personal blog The Dish

MLB Trade Rumors: On occasion, you've revealed information in chats about a player's off-the-field troubles that was not publicly known or hadn't gotten much press.  How has this been received by your readers, bosses, and front office contacts?

Keith Law: Some readers get annoyed because they don't want to believe it. My bosses know that I'm meticulous about information like that – I only write about these matters if I believe they are substantially or wholly accurate. For example, the Alcides Escobar story – I have a copy of his daughter's birth certificate with his name as the father, I spoke to the attache at the U.S. Consulate in Panama who has helped Escobar's wife, and so on. I think the Brewers would just like the story to go away, frankly, but it's not going to unless it's addressed.

MLBTR: A related question: when you rank prospects, how big of a factor is makeup?  What's the highest number of positions you've moved a prospect on your top 100 (either up or down) due to makeup?

Law: It's only a big factor for me if I think it's really affecting or going to affect the player's production. And even then I would be careful – Robinson Cano had major knocks on his makeup when he was in the minors, and even with his ups and downs he's been a pretty productive big leaguer. If I'd been writing at the time and had given the makeup issues major consideration (he was considered a "dog" by many scouts because he showed little effort, especially in the field), I would have grossly underrated him.

MLBTR: One scout told Buster Olney that Stephen Strasburg is better than A.J. Burnett right now.  Do you agree?  If not, how close is he?

Law: I think that's a bit hyperbolic, but I do think Strasburg could pitch in the majors right now and would be Washington's #1 starter if they could sign him quickly and stick him in their rotation in June. I'm not saying they have to take another starter at #10, but they could have Strasburg, Zimmerman, and another polished college arm like Kyle Gibson in their 2010 rotation. Shore up the defense a little and they could be in line for a pretty significant improvement in W/L record in 2010-11 with that jump in run prevention. 

(Click here for Law's ESPN report on Strasburg, plus video of the young pitcher).

MLBTR: A few years ago you were asked which player you thought would become a star but never did, for reasons unknown.  You answered Carlos Pena.  Since then he's put up excellent numbers, so who takes the mantle now?

Law: I'm asked this sort of question in chats all the time, but since I didn't start scouting amateur players at all until 2003 – and it might be more accurate to say that I started seeing amateur players in 2003, but didn't learn to evaluate them for some time after that – most of my answers would come from the perspective of my old role as a stat analyst. Andy Marte's probably the best answer I can give, especially since I did see him in his first spring with Cleveland and loved his swing, so he's a case where I could offer both perspectives and still missed on him. And do we have a good idea why Jerome Williams never developed?

MLBTR: I have a feeling that your style of writing may generate more angry correspondence from readers than the average columnist.  Have you been able to develop a thick skin?  Is there an occasional email or comment that makes your blood boil?

Law: I'm not thick-skinned or thin-skinned, but I do believe strongly in calling out people who take advantage of the anonymity of the Internet to slander people or generally act in ways in which they wouldn't act if they had to write under their own names. Many people, perhaps most, will back off when they realize that their comments are truly public and that the target might see them and choose to defend himself. And I think most readers are unaccustomed to getting responses like that. If people wrote like they believed their targets were reading, they'd be more civil. And civility is a good thing.

That said, I'm amused by how personally some readers take my comments. Why do you care that I said that Joey Bagodonuts is only going to be a fourth outfielder or a fifth starter in the majors? What I say has zero impact on a player's career path, and if you are worried about my analyses affecting a player's trade value, well, thanks for the compliment, but I'm not sure I believe that either.

MLBTR: What's your favorite major fast food chain?

Law: Five Guys, assuming that's "major." I like In-n-Out, but their burgers are not close to Five Guys', and I like Rubio's as well (I used to like Baja Fresh, and then I tried Rubio's). Peter Reinhart, one of my favorite cookbook authors, has written about the biscuits at Bojangle's, so I need to check that out the next time I'm in the south.

All else being equal, though, I prefer to avoid fast food. I like patronizing local places; I like the challenge of finding those restaurants and I believe in supporting establishments that are serving honest, authentic food, food made from fresh ingredients that either preserves cooking traditions or tries to push cuisine in new directions. And I don't like the way major fast-food chains have sacrificed quality, both in the end product but also in the treatment of animals during the process, in the name of driving down costs. Reducing the cost of a high-definition television is one thing, but reducing the cost of a hamburger? I'd rather eat fewer burgers, pay more when I do, and get a much better end product.

Odds & Ends: Clement, Schilling, Strasburg

Links for Tuesday…

Rangers To Reduce Payroll Next Year

According to Jim Reeves of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Rangers owner Tom Hicks would like to subtract $20MM from the payroll for 2010.  That'd presumably put the Rangers in the $50MM range. 

Reeves' column has a negative tone to it, but why wouldn't the Rangers want to replace Hank Blalock, Frank Catalanotto, and Vicente Padilla with Max Ramirez, Brandon Boggs, and Derek Holland?  When you have the best farm system in baseball it's not hard to trim payroll.  Hicks even mentioned he'd still be interested in making a Ben Sheets type addition via the free agent market.

Reeves also touches on Kevin Millwood. Hicks claims he wants Millwood to reach 180 innings this year, causing the pitcher's $12MM 2010 option to vest.  As for Catalanotto, Reeves takes Hicks' financial caution as a sign the team will not be cutting him and eating his $6MM.

Tigers Talking Trade

Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press has articles here and here about the possibility of a Tigers trade before the season begins.  GM Dave Dombrowski admitted that trade discussions have intensified lately.

One possible need is a second lefty reliever, but the Tigers could potentially fill that role with Nate Robertson or Dontrelle Willis.  Morosi adds that a need at catcher could surface if Matt Treanor's current injury is serious.  And he notes that the team always needs young pitching.

As far as trade candidates, Marcus Thames ($2.275MM salary) leads the pack.  Thames has big power and not much else, but the Tigers chose to tender him a contract for '09.  Morosi wonders if the Reds could be a match, though their outfield picture seems set with Jonny Gomes taking on the right-handed slugger role.  Other trade candidates: Mike Hessman, Ryan Raburn, or Brent Clevlen.

Rosenthal On White Sox, Pedro, Baker

The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports

  • The White Sox are still trying to figure out their center field situation, but they are not involved on pricey veterans such as Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr.
  • Fantasy alert: Rosenthal names David Aardsma as the likely leader for the Mariners closer job, with Chad Cordero and Brandon Morrow lingering.
  • The Dodgers "continue to balk at Pedro Martinez's $5MM asking price."
  • Rockies utility man Jeff Baker, who is out of options, is drawing interest from the Phillies, Astros, and Pirates.  Rosenthal suggests recently-demoted Kyle Kendrick as a possible target for Colorado, assuming the Phils can move Geoff Jenkins or Matt Stairs to clear a spot.  Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post says the Yankees are unlikely to acquire Baker.
  • The Blue Jays have been scouting shortstops Chin-Lung Hu, Juan Castro, and others in hopes of finding someone they can stash at Triple A for insurance.
  • Was Willy Taveras a bad move for the Reds?  Rosenthal says rival executives think so.

Rudy Seanez Pondering Future

Diamond Leung is no longer writing for the Riverside Press-Enterprise, but he's blogging about baseball at Diamond NotesToday he has an update regarding free agent reliever Rudy Seanez.

Seanez, 40, is still considering playing in 2009.  He turned down an offer to return to the Phillies, and has interest from the Padres and others.  Fun fact, Seanez owns a Cold Stone Creamery with his family.  Delicious yet pricey.

Seanez has already pitched for the Padres in roughly 14 different stints.  Last year with the Phils he had some control problems but still managed a 3.53 ERA in 43.3 innings.

A’s Not In On Mark Mulder

Tyler Bleszinski of Athletics Nation talked to A's GM Billy Beane on March 10th, and asked if the A's were tempted to sign someone like Mark Mulder or Pedro Martinez.  An excerpt of Beane's response:

On Mark, my understanding is that he isn't ready to go out.  That's sort of moot.  But we've stayed away from signing the veteran starters because we have young guys that we want to be here at some point and I've never thought in our marketplace that that was an efficient use of your money.  Short answer is no.  It isn't really even something we pursued during the winter.  We've got great young pitchers here and we want to give them a chance to get up here.

It's been quiet on the Mulder front lately.  He was supposed to audition in mid-March.  He told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in February he wanted to be 100% before holding an open bullpen session.

Offseason In Review: Florida Marlins

Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Marlins.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 5th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor, Kiko Calero, Jose Ceda, John Koronka,  Emilio Bonifacio, Dan Meyer

Subtractions: Mike Jacobs, Kevin Gregg, Josh Willingham, Scott Olsen, Luis Gonzalez, Matt Treanor, Mark Hendrickson, Doug Waechter, Joe Nelson, Justin Miller

The Marlins' offense features changes for 2009.  They subtracted cleanup hitter Jacobs, who supplied 32 home runs but also a .299 OBP.  Gaby Sanchez may take his place.  Outfielders Gonzalez and Willingham are gone, with their ABs to be picked up by Cameron Maybin.  And Treanor is out at catcher, with John Baker assuming full-time duties.  Last year's offense ranked 5th in the NL with 4.78 runs per game.  The '09 crew projects to score 4.51 per game, based on CHONE projections and Baseball Musings' lineup analysis toolBaseball Prospectus is more optimistic on Maybin; plugging in their projection brings the Fish to 4.62 runs per game.

The rotation, which posted a 4.66 ERA in 916 innings last year, will subtract the 52 starts made by Olsen and Hendrickson in favor of more innings for Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Andrew Miller, and Anibal Sanchez.  Staff ace Ricky Nolasco will get the Opening Day assignment.  These five are projected to post an aggregate ERA of 4.26, so it'll be a solid rotation if healthy.  I think the Marlins can handle the loss of Olsen, though I wasn't particularly impressed with the trade bounty received.  The trade of Olsen and Willingham was yet another Marlins salary dump.

The bullpen lost several key players, so the Marlins will need strong (and healthy) years from closer Matt Lindstrom as well as imports Nunez and Proctor.  It really wouldn't have cost much to have retained Nelson.

According to The Fielding Bible II, the Marlins' defense ranked 8th in the NL last year.  Replacing Jacobs with Sanchez would be an obvious gain.  Same goes for the addition of Maybin and subtraction of Gonzalez in the outfield (Maybin will play center). 

The Marlins allowed 767 runs last year.  Assuming the bullpen does not implode and the rotation stays semi-healthy they should be able to improve on that.  I can see the Fish winning 83-84 games again, improving in pitching and defense but losing a bit offensively.

Bottom line: It's the typical Marlins refrain: good team, imagine what they could do with a payroll.  They still have enough above-average young players where 3-4 well-timed breakouts could push them into contention.