2010 Options

Today let’s take a look at the 2010 options – there are 38 of them, as far as I can tell.  Do you agree with these groupings?

Likely To Be Exercised
Josh Beckett (30) – $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Carl Crawford (28) – $10MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
Akinori Iwamura (31) – $4.25MM club option with a $250K buyout
Cliff Lee (31) – $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Victor Martinez (31) – $7MM club option with a $250K buyout
Magglio Ordonez (36) – $15MM club/vesting option with a $3MM buyout (will probably vest)
Matt Thornton (33) – $2.25MM club option with a $250K buyout
Brandon Webb (31) – $8.5MM club option with a $500K+ buyout

To Be Determined
Doug Brocail (43) – $2.85MM club option with a $250K buyout
Coco Crisp (30) – $8MM club option with a $500K buyout
Alan Embree (40) – $3MM club option with a $250K buyout
Pedro Feliz (35) – $5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Ryan Franklin (37) – $2.75MM club option with a $250K buyout
Ramon Hernandez (34) – $8.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Masahide Kobayashi (36) – $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout
Kevin Millwood (35) – Rangers can decline $12MM salary for ’10 unless he reaches 180 innings in ’09
Melvin Mora (38) – club option
Miguel Olivo (31) – $3.25MM mutual option
Vicente Padilla (32) – $12MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout
J.J. Putz (33) – $8.6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Luis Vizcaino (35) – $4MM club option with a $500K buyout
Tim Wakefield (43) – perpetual $4MM club option
Jack Wilson (32) – $8.4MM club option with a $600K buyout

Unlikely To Be Exercised
Rafael Betancourt (35) – $5.4MM club option
Frank Catalanotto (36) – $5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Jermaine Dye (36) – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout (unlikely that both sides will exercise)
Adam Eaton (32) – $9MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Ross Gload (34) – $2.6MM club option
Alex Gonzalez (32) – $6MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Tim Hudson (34) – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Geoff Jenkins (35) – $7.5MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout
Austin Kearns (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Noah Lowry (29) – $6.25MM club option
Freddy Sanchez (32) – $8MM club option with a $600K buyout
Yorvit Torrealba (31) – $4MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Billy Wagner (38) – $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Yasuhiko Yabuta (37) – $4MM club option with a $500K buyout
Dmitri Young (36)  -$6MM option vests with 500 PAs in ’09

Odds and Ends: Teixeira, Pujols, McLane

Links for Monday…

  • Daniel Cabrera passed his physical for the Nationals.
  • Tony Massarotti writes that the Red Sox had a shot at Mark Teixeira.  The Scott Boras camp was proposing $176MM guaranteed for eight years with vesting options that could’ve brought the total to $220MM over ten years.  Ultimately the Yankees beat Boston’s offer by $10MM, with no options and a full no-trade clause.
  • Viva El Birdos looks at what the Teixeira contract means for Albert Pujols.  Will Albert seek the largest contract in baseball history?  The Cardinals have him through the 2011 season.
  • RotoAuthority looks at the power/speed shortstop options for fantasy baseball leagues.
  • Astros owner Drayton McLane is the second owner to publicly admit he wants a salary cap (Brewers owner Mark Attanasio said it right after the Teixeira signing).  Interesting take on the salary cap by Dan Symborski at Baseball Think Factory.
  • The best of Big League Stew’s Answer Man series.

Chass On Collusion

My theory on the late-moving free agent market: teams are just being cautious, aiming for January bargains on players like Adam Dunn, Brian Fuentes, Derek Lowe, Orlando Hudson, and Ben Sheets.  Plus, many free agents wanted to wait out the Mark Teixeira negotiations to see who’d have money and needs afterward.

Murray Chass suggested another possible explanation in yesterday’s article.  He talked to "one prominent agent," who said, "There are a lot of rumblings that all the teams know exactly what everyone is doing with free agents."  Chass recalled the "information bank" of twenty years ago, when teams formed a database of all their offers.  Rob Manfred, executive VP of labor relations and human resources, offers a less sinister explanation: most offers are leaked out to the public.

Chass talked to another agent who believes budget cutbacks are to blame, which is hard to argue.  Chass’ article also discusses the salary cap issue, which he more clearly calls a payroll cap.

Red Sox Close To One-Year Deal With Penny

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Red Sox are close to signing Brad Penny to a one-year deal.  The two sides are still hammering out the agreement, and Penny would have to pass a physical.  In November, the Dodgers chose Penny’s $2MM buyout over his $9.25MM club option.

Penny, 31 in May, dealt with shoulder and forearm pain all year.  The Red Sox have a sophisticated system for dealing with pitching shoulders, so it’s an interesting match.

Ian Browne of MLB.com expands on Rosenthal’s report. Browne notes that Penny in Boston would reunite him with fellow starter Josh Beckett and third baseman Mike Lowell, both of whom Penny played with as a Florida Marlin. The three were on the 2003 World Series-winning squad.

2008 Free Agent Bargains and Busts (Hitters)

Using Wins Above Replacement data from FanGraphs and contract info from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, I have determined the biggest free agent bargains and busts of the 2008 season (position players only).  I did my best to calculate what the player was paid in 2008, including bonuses and incentives.  Hopefully I didn’t miss anyone important; I used ESPN’s Free Agent Tracker.

Top Ten Bargains

  1. Willie Harris: +$14.6MM (paid $800K, worth $15.4MM)
  2. Jody Gerut: +$13.715MM
  3. Mike Cameron: +12.55MM
  4. Jorge Cantu: +$10.7MM
  5. Jerry Hairston Jr.: +10.375MM
  6. Milton Bradley: +10.3MM
  7. Eric Hinske: +$8MM
  8. Aaron Miles: +$6.9MM
  9. Rod Barajas: +$6.2MM
  10. Cesar Izturis: +$5.25MM

Top Ten Busts

  1. Andruw Jones: -$15.7MM (worth -$1.6MM, paid $14.1MM)
  2. Jose Guillen: -$11.1MM
  3. Jorge Posada: -$9.7MM
  4. Mike Lamb: -$9.4MM
  5. Corey Patterson: -$8MM
  6. Aaron Rowand: -$7.2MM
  7. Brad Wilkerson: -$6.9MM
  8. Omar Vizquel: -$6.5MM
  9. Torii Hunter: -$5.7MM
  10. Paul Lo Duca: -$5.1MM

A few notes…

  • Fair Value Award goes to Sean Casey, who signed for and was worth $800K.
  • Doug Melvin and the Brewers came out almost $20MM ahead with their signings of Cameron, Russell Branyan, and Jason Kendall.  The Cardinals, Astros, and Rangers also did well on position player free agents.
  • Ned Colletti and the Dodgers were the worst at a loss over $16MM, mostly due to Jones.  The Giants, Twins, and Yankees also did not fare well on position players.
  • The Nationals made a modest $1.2MM profit, because Jim Bowden’s Harris signing was negated by Lo Duca, Rob Mackowiak, Johnny Estrada, and Aaron Boone.
  • Of the eight free agent hitters who cost $10MM or more in 2008, six did not earn their salary.   

Odds and Ends: Teixeira, Dickey, Takahashi

Links for Friday…

  • In the aftermath of the Yankees’ spending, Joe Posnanski reminds us that two thirds of MLB teams have won the World Series in the last 30 years.
  • UmpBump doesn’t like the idea of a salary cap.
  • FanGraphs now shows a hitter’s wins over replacement level, as well as the player’s dollar value.  You don’t need to be a stathead to enjoy this.  For example, here’s the Carlos Pena page.  Scroll to the bottom.  Value Wins shows he was worth 6.0 wins over replacement level in 2007.  That made him worth $24.6MM, but he earned just $800K.
  • If you are a stathead, you’ll like this 1981 SI article on Bill James.
  • A look at the only five players who should be considered within the first five picks of a fantasy baseball draft next year.
  • Mark Teixeira leftovers…Murray Chass says Tex and his wife didn’t want to live in Boston, while Kat O’Brien details the hard stance the Yankees took with Scott Boras.  The Nationals did everything they could to sign Teixeira, but he wanted to win now.
  • ESPN’s Keith Law explains why the draft pick compensation system is broken.  Brewers GM Doug Melvin had interesting comments on this in a recent Buster Olney blog.
  • The New York Times Company is trying to sell its stake in the Red Sox.
  • La Velle E. Neal III tries to figure out the Twins’ signing of knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.
  • Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker takes a closer look at lefty reliever Ken Takahashi.

Orioles In “Serious Contention” For Kawakami

According to Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun, Orioles president Andy MacPhail "appears to be in serious contention to sign Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami."  In another post, Schmuck explains why the Orioles would be pursuing a mid-rotation veteran.  Dave O’Brien recently wrote that the Braves are "squarely in the bidding," while the Twins are also in on him.  The Mets, Cardinals, and Red Sox are other suitors.

What kind of contract does Kawakami want?  The best we have is that "some teams fear" he wants to match Hiroki Kuroda‘s three-year, $35.3MM deal.

Kawakami, 33, posted a 2.30 ERA and 4.48 K/BB ratio in 117.3 innings this year for the Chunichi Dragons.  He missed time with a strained back and was part of a six-man rotation.  The CHONE projections call for a 4.13 ERA (neutral park/league) for Kawakami in his MLB debut season.