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Odds and Ends

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How about some Odds and Ends to kick off Hump Day?

  • Peter Abraham doesn’t think it would make sense for the Twins to acquire Chien-Ming Wang (presumably in a Johan Santana trade).  His reasoning: Wang’s sinker would suffer on turf, and his salary is due to climb via arbitration.
  • The Indians have decisions due on Kenny Lofton, Trot Nixon, Paul Byrd, Joe Borowski, and Aaron Fultz.  The first two will probably be gone.
  • My projection for Jeremy Guthrie in 2008 is up over at RotoAuthority.
  • Say Anything’s new album came out yesterday.  Highly recommended.
  • We sold our condo!  Literally in less than one week after hiring a real estate agent, we had a contract. Maybe they’re not so bad after all.   

Rivera Not Affected By Torre Departure?

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Mariano Rivera has changed his tune – now he’s saying Joe Torre’s departure doesn’t have anything to do with his chances of re-signing with the Yankees.  That’s cool – most of us can’t picture him in a Phillies uniform anyway.

Several days ago, Rivera apparently said the Yankees were "one of 30 teams" once Torre left.  I amended that to "one of 29 teams," assuming Rivera sticks with his statement about the Red Sox. 

Yanks To Offer 3/40 To Posada?

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Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News has sources indicating that the Yankees plan to offer Jorge Posada a three-year, $40MM contract.  However, the manager vacancy will be filled first.

For those afraid of math, the contract would average $13.3MM per season.  That would nudge him past Ivan Rodriguez as the game’s highest-paid catcher and serve as an 11% raise from 2007’s salary.  It’s a reasonable starting point, but given the season Posada had, he could do better.  I said back in June I thought it would take 4/48, but 4/56 seems reasonable now.  That fourth year might be a sticking point for Brian Cashman, but I think Posada should demand it.   

Red Sox Rumors

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The Boston Globe’s Gordon Edes has some mild hot stove chatter today.

  • Tim Wakefield’s $4MM option is likely to be exercised. There was some speculation a week ago that it could be declined, but no one really believed it.  It’s still a bargain.
  • Julian Tavarez’s $3.85MM option is a borderline call, and Edes seems to think it will be declined.
  • Nothing new with Mike Lowell – he wants to return, but the door’s open for the Phillies or Yankees if the Red Sox won’t pony up enough years.
  • Most folks expect Curt Schilling to leave.  But if he’s still up for one year and $13MM the Sox should do it.
  • Mike Timlin will pitch again but it might be elsewhere.  Timlin hasn’t been with another club since ’02, when he pitched for the Cardinals and Phillies.
  • Matt Clement will depart.  If his tryouts and MRIs come up clean and he can hit 90 mph there will definitely be teams offering him incentivized contracts.  Here’s one I missed from a few weeks ago: the Padres may make a play for him.  Tom Krasovic also throws Mark Prior into the mix for the Friars in that article.  Back in December of ’04, Clement talked with the Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, White Sox, Indians, and Blue Jays before signing with Boston.

Santana for Melky, Hughes, and Prospect?

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Tim recently posted about the Yanks inquiries into the Twins organization for Johan Santana.  Peter Abraham shares what he’s heard of the rumors for the lefty ace.

Melky Cabrera would give Minnesota a center fielder to replace Torii Hunter if he bolts. The Yankees could then offer the Twins Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy along with a second prospect.

If Melky and Kennedy plus a prospect can land Santana, I can’t see why the Yankees wouldn’t do that, even if only for the opportunity to get a leg up on signing baseball’s best pitcher to a long term deal.  But I would assume it would take a lot more.  Lots of names are being tossed around along with Philip Hughes, particularly Robinson Cano, names that are most likely the premium the Twins would demand and perhaps a deal-breaker for the Yankees.

Posted by Nat Boyle

Sunday A-Rod Recap

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I hate to post about the same guy twice in a row, but there’s been a flurry of Alex Rodriguez speculation on this fine October Sunday.  To break it down, here’s a brief recap:

  • The New York Post reports the Yankees are expected to make an offer to prevent A-Rod from free agency.  However, the offer will approach neither $300MM nor 12 years.  I think this is both expected and a smart move by the Yanks because…
  • Nick Cafardo likens Scott Boras’ approach toward marketing A-Rod’s "Iconic Value" to the exaggeratory strategy he took with Daisuke Matsuzaka.  And Johnny Damon, for that matter.
  • Bob Klapisch reports that in Torre’s wake, there will be much posturing from Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Alex Rodriguez who we can expect to wait as long as possible to make any decision(s).  And this is because…
  • The New York Daily News’ Mark Feinsand notes that "it is unlikely that the Yanks will have all of their issues resolved" before the tenth day following the World Series, when A-Rod will decide whether or not to opt out.  Mike Lupica meanwhile points out that the unrest in the Yankee system is a golden opportunity for A-Rod to indeed opt out with a plausible excuse.  Or as Scott Boras so eloquently put it to CNN.com, the "state of flux is a grand issue."  And further leverage for the player and his agent.

Posted by Nat Boyle

Marlins Would Benefit Most from A-Rod

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Chris Isidore of CNNMoney.com analyzes the viability of a $300MM contract for Alex Rodriguez and the likelihood of him still being in the Bronx.  Isidore writes:

"A-Rod could produce $48 million per year in revenue and asset appreciation for the Yankees, allowing the team to pay him $34 million in salary, along with a 40 percent luxury tax, and still break even."

Isidore dispels the notion that the YES Network is actually doing better with A-Rod in pinstripes by pointing out a significant decline in viewership since his acquisition in ’04, and that YES fetches most of its profits from fees assessed to cable/satellite providers.  In a most probable scenario, if A-Rod signs elsewhere, YES will lose "only about a 3 percent drop in overall revenue for YES," writes Isidore.

While this isn’t what I refer to as a "substantial rumor," Isidore points out how the one team that would see the greatest economic benefit from signing Rodriguez is the team that resides in his hometown of Miami:  The Florida Marlins.  Isidore notes:

"…for deep-pocketed successful teams like the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox or Angels, there’s a marginal economic benefit from bringing him in, even as fabulous a player as he is. But look at the upside for the Marlins, not just in ticket revenue but also the structure of a new stadium deal.’"

Posted By Nat Boyle

Yanks To Pursue Rowand?

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A source of mine with Yankee connections had some good info for me today.  Much was discussed yesterday in Tampa.

For starters, the Yanks are expected to make "eye-popping" offers to retain Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera before the World Series ends.  The team does not want the pair to file for free agency.

Additionally, the Yankees may make a big play for Aaron Rowand.  They believe a package of Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, and Ian Kennedy would entice the Twins for Johan Santana.  That’s a huge price, but doesn’t seem out of line to me for the best pitcher in baseball.

My source didn’t have anything about Andy Pettitte, who hated seeing Joe Torre go and will take a month to decide if he’s even going to play next year.

Odds and Ends: A-Rod, Posada, Cardinals

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A few articles that caught my eye this morning…

  • Scott Boras seemingly scoffs at the idea of Alex Rodriguez being forced by the Yankees to sign in November.  Reggie Jackson, a special adviser to the Yankees, thinks Rodriguez will top $300MM if he leaves.  Jackson takes a subtle shot at A-Rod for his lack of postseason heroics.  Rodriguez’s .279/.361/.483 career postseason line pales in comparison to Reggie’s .278/.354/.527.  Wait, no it doesn’t.
  • Barry Rozner thinks Jerry Reinsdorf could arrange for two blockbusters for his teams, netting Alex Rodriguez for the White Sox and Kobe Bryant for the Bulls.  Rozner thinks the $300 mil would come back five-fold.  Rozner manages to work in a shot at Aramis Ramirez, his second in two weeks.  What did Aramis do to Barry?  Anyway…I don’t consider the White Sox serious contenders for A-Rod. 
  • George King says Joe Torre’s departure is more likely to drive Jorge Posada away than Mariano Rivera. 
  • Bernie Miklasz talks about the Cardinals opening their wallet so far this offseason.  Is there a chance payroll could go past $115MM?

Mariano Rivera To Test The Market

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As you know, Joe Torre’s rejection of the Yankees’ weak offer may influence the thinking of Mariano Rivera.  The Journal News’ Peter Abraham has more on that angle:

Just spoke to somebody I know who is tight with Mariano Rivera. He said that Mo is more determined than ever to test the market after the developments of today.  Mo’s comment: “The Yankees are one of 30 teams now.”

Hank Steinbrenner has insisted Joba Chamberlain spend 2008 as a starter, heightening the Yankees’ need to make the best offer to Rivera.  Ultimately I think they will.  The guess from Jon Heyman was two years, $26MM plus an option year for 2010 for Rivera.  He could probably get three years guaranteed on the open market.

Rivera doesn’t think he could bear to put on a Red Sox uniform, so maybe the Yankees are one of 29 teams.  The Phillies plan to get in the mix for Rivera for sure.

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