MLB Free Agents 2007: Eric Gagne
Recently I got to thinking about Eric Gagne. 30 years old. An unstoppable relief ace from 2002-04 (a 1.79 ERA and 13.3 K/9 over 247 innings. Imagine if he did that in one season as a starter! Roto Immortality.) Tommy John surgery in 1997 plus another cleanup type surgery last summer. A $10MM salary for 2006 with a $12MM option for 2007.
With Scott Boras as his agent, Gagne may elect to void that ’07 option. Or the Dodgers may simply choose not to exercise it. The Dodgers are one probably the only team in baseball with two established "closers" on the roster. No, Jose Mesa and Braden Looper don’t count. Danys Baez is an excellent backup that will allow the Dodgers to limit Gagne’s innings this season. But should a decent setup man emerge from Yhency Brazoban, Franquelis Osoria, and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers may just send Gagne packing this summer.
So which contending teams have questionable closers?
Red Sox. I have to assume Epstein doesn’t see Papelbon as a long-term reliever/closer candidate. He’ll probably be in the rotation by July, and Keith Foulke may give out by then. The pen has some depth, but lacks a relief ace. Many folks see Craig Hansen closing out games by year’s end, and I don’t disagree. Still, if he stumbles a bit in his first Major League season, the Sox could take a crack at Gagne.
White Sox. Bobby Jenks and Dustin Hermanson are wild cards right now. With only Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte as dependable options, Kenny Williams could go after the cream of the crop in Gagne. His trading chips will probably have to come from his Major League roster this time.
Rangers. Should Francisco Cordero happen to go down this year, I’m not sure if Texas will be content to give the ball to Akinori Otsuka, Joaquin Benoit, or Frank Francisco in the 9th inning.
Braves. This really wouldn’t be their style, though Gagne would really solidify the relief corps.
Phillies. What’s Plan B if Tom Gordon‘s elbow gives out? The Phils need Ryan Madson in the rotation and probably don’t trust Arthur Rhodes.
This is all just speculation, but watch the rumors fly this summer if Baez and Gagne are both pitching well and an injury to a starter or position player creates a need for the Dodgers.
Thanks to The Closer Watch for the current bullpen depth charts.
Phils Crave 5th OF
Randy Miller wrote an article yesterday quoting Phils GM Pat Gillick’s desire for a lefty outfield bat off the bench. Miller didn’t throw out any names, so I thought I’d dig around a bit to see who might be on the radar. According to my best Phillies source:
On B.J. Surhoff: "I got a lukewarm response from a high ranking club official when i asked about him a week ago. Not saying it won’t happen, but i didn’t like the guy’s body language."
On Bobby Higginson: "I got a thumbs down when I asked about Higgy a month ago."
On Josh Kroeger (already a member of the team): "They could go from within with this Kroeger kid, but I’m sure they will keep looking."
Just throwing out a name here, but how about trading for Jorge Piedra? Young lefty stick with pop who can hit righties and is buried on the Rockies’ depth chart. I have a feeling the Phils wouldn’t be setting their sights that high for a fifth outfielder, however.
Odds And Ends: Abreu, Manny
In very minor news, ESPN is reporting that the Cubs have signed righthanded pitcher Jason Simontacchi to a minor league deal. He was slightly less than terrible for Triple A Memphis last year and saw 15 ugly innings in the Majors. He’s not young, but did win 11 games for the Cards back in ’02.
Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News acknowledged the Abreu to the White Sox trade rumor, branding it an "Internet rumor." Fair enough; I could’ve sworn Howard Eskin started this one though. Regardless, I think we should start referring to rumors from the Philadelphia Daily News as simply "newspaper rumors." Why try to identify the source? Too much work.
According to Conlin, "officials from both teams deny any such talks." OK. But I promise that the White Sox have interest in Abreu. Whether they have the goods for it, I’m not sure. While Conlin indicates the White Sox would be settling by adding Gavin Floyd to the deal, my sources and most Phillies fans feel that Floyd as a throw-in is overpayment by the Phils.
If this newspaper rumor about Manny Ramirez is to be believed, the Red Sox have no concept of trading players for equal value. They might as well have asked for John Lackey and Vlad while they were at it.
White Sox Interested In Abreu
Remember that Abreu/Contreras/Dye rumor that was bouncing around last night that couldn’t quite graduate from the Unfounded category? We’re a little closer to a foundation about this one tonight.
A very solid source close to the Phillies tells me that Kenny Williams and the White Sox “love” Bobby Abreu. It’s the first I’ve heard that the club is truly interested in the right fielder. He also mentioned that the Phils would like a pitcher like Jose Contreras. There is some question as to whether the Phils would need to include Gavin Floyd to make an equitable deal.
He said that with the White Sox payroll rising to over $90MM, they can’t take on much more. However, I’ve heard in the past from my White Sox guy that the Sox would actually take the payroll to $105MM. What’s more, the 2006 salaries of Dye, Contreras, and Abreu are a wash. The Phils would take on $13MM and the White Sox would do the same.
The Sox would have to squeeze a marginal $11MM into their payroll in 2007. Abreu is owed $17MM for that season (including a $2MM buyout of his ’08 option). But given that the club likely would have exercised Jermaine Dye‘s affordable $6MM option, it’s a marginal $11 mil for ’07.
This would clearly be a win now move for the Phils, as it would strengthen their team for 2006. The combination of Contreras and Dye was worth 10.5 wins above replacement players in 2005. Abreu was worth 6.8 wins. While he still has potential at age 23, Gavin Floyd can’t be counted on for much after posting a 6.16 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 137 Triple A innings in 2005.
Another interesting nugget is the close friendship between Abreu and Ozzie Guillen. Guillen certainly had some influence on the acquisition and retention of Freddy Garcia.
On Michaels For Rhodes…
Obviously there are a lot of conflicting reports and general confusion surrounding this whole Crisp/Marte/Michaels/Rhodes thing. I’ve read several iterations, sometimes with catchers involved.
I apologize for contributing so little information on this one, but rest assured I’ve been trying. Here’s what little I know:
A Cleveland source tells me the Indians are really keeping a lid on everything. He’s a lot closer to the team than I, and he hasn’t been able to dig up details.
I also spoke to a source familiar with the inner workings of the Phillies. He’s scrambling for information as well. He told me that the Phils have been dangling Jason Michaels for a while now, and it’s quite possible that all they could get for him is Arthur Rhodes. Such an acquisition will facilitate Ryan Madson‘s move to the rotation.
He also mentioned that the Phils have had interest in Kelly Shoppach for some time now, though Carlos Ruiz is every bit as good if he can manage to stay healthy.
Phils’ Attempted Starter Acquisitions
Remember about a week ago, when Pat Gillick mentioned that the Phillies’s deal for a #1 or #2 starter had fallen through? I’m received a fair amount of emails on this topic, so I wanted to address it. I talked my Phils source, and he gave me the lowdown. He mentioned that most if not all of these names had previously appeared in the media linked to the Phillies, but I’ll present the information anyway.
Mark Prior was never the Phillies’ number one choice. They’ve always been lukewarm on him due to his health record. Had the Cubs parted with Carlos Zambrano, the Phillies would’ve happily dealt Bobby Abreu.
The Phillies like Erik Bedard quite a bit. The problem is that the Orioles are actually looking to acquire a starting pitcher, not give one up. So although the Orioles have soured on Bedard somewhat, trading him probably won’t happen unless a couple of excellent young pitchers are coming back in the deal. I don’t even know if such a deal would make sense for any team.
Philadelphia was close to acquiring Derek Lowe during the winter meetings, but of course that fell through. No word on what the club offered.
The last name on the radar is Matt Clement. The Phils really aren’t thrilled with Clement whatsoever, but they would at least consider acquiring him in the right deal.
More Jeff Weaver
I was wondering whether the Cardinals could fit Jeff Weaver into their payroll if they moved some parts around, and called upon Viva El Birdos to determine the answer. Lboros thoroughly dissected the issue yesterday. The verdict:
"So I guess my answer is: yes, there are knots the Cardinals could tie themselves into in order to fit Jeff Weaver into the payroll; but no, I don’t think they would be inclined to go that route."
Read the post and you’ll probably be inclined to agree.
In addition, I spoke to my Mets source today. He said the club is not interested in Weaver. Commenters in my Weaver post from the other day pointed out that with Mike Pelfrey on the fast track, there’s really no place for Weaver on the Mets.
Looks like the Orioles, Cubs, Astros, and Angels are the major players here. However, the Phillies could be in the mix given that Ryan Madson is no lock for the rotation. (This is why I love open comments – with enough smart people, all options get uncovered).
Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing
I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside). After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time. Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.
For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market. He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29. He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span.
Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras. We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now. Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him. It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.
Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians. If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something. However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180. It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued. Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.
Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles. Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.
Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here. And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies. The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.
Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East. His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.
Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back. Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.
Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera. This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason. According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."
Mets – Sure, why not? Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel. You could do worse.
Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin. I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.
Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas. Ryan Drese is floating around as well. I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.
Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility. No Boras reservations. Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams. Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though. Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter. Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).
Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.
Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation. If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix. After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter. Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.
Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.
I think that pretty much sums it up. In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels. Just my best guess. I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Manny To Philly Rumor Looks False
This trade rumor has been lighting up forums across the Internet all day long: Manny Ramirez to the Phillies for Bobby Abreu. According to the rumor, it’s "basically a done deal." I got in touch with my very best Phillies source for the scoop. According to my source:
"I checked it out with high-ranking sources as early as 4 p.m., then again at 7. Nothing is going on."
This is definitely an authentic, reliable source, so I have to assume that this trade rumor doesn’t have a leg to stand on. I’m the last guy to want to kill an exciting trade rumor, but Manny for Abreu is not a done deal as far as I can tell.
Kaplan: Cubs “Trying Hard” For Tejada
Late last night I talked to Dave Kaplan, co-host of WGN’s Sports Central. Dave gave me a different take on the Miguel Tejada situation than what my source told me.
He said his sources indicate the White Sox are out of the Tejada sweepstakes and that the Red Sox are also backing away now that Manny said he’ll stay. According to Kaplan, the Cubs are "trying hard." He also mentioned that there’s "still a long way to go to get a deal done, but if the Cubs will include Felix Pie they could get it done."
FoxSports’s Ken Rosenthal threw his hat into the ring last night, indicating that the Phillies have offered Bobby Abreu for Tejada and would play Tejada at third base. Of course, Abreu has the power to veto such a trade.
At any rate, more than one source has indicated that the Tejada situation will get resolved today, whether he stays or goes. I guess we’ll see.
In other news, Dan Connolly of the Chicago Tribune quotes an industry source saying the Cubs are "closing in" on a trade to send Corey Patterson to Baltimore for an unknown minor leaguer. The minor leaguer is said to not be one of the Orioles’ top five. Based on Will Lingo’s top ten list for Baseball America, perhaps numbers 6-10 are possible. I’m just speculating, but the Cubs could really use a guy like Val Majewski if the Orioles would part with him.