Brian Sabean Trade Profile
I liked the results of the Kevin Towers Trade Profile, so I sat down and compiled Brian Sabean’s trades since 2001 in a spreadsheet. Download san_francisco_giants_sabean.xls here.
One thing’s for sure: Sabean is due to make some deals. He’s yet to make a single trade in 2006. He waited til May last year, but ended up making eight trades in 2005. Sabean typically makes about five trades per calendar year.
Of his 26 trades since 2001, Sabean has dealt with 18 different GMs. He’s not one to just stick to his buddies. As far as popular trading partners, Doug Melvin tops the list. Melvin has completed four trades with Sabean, all fairly minor (Doug Mirabelli, Eric Young, Wayne Franklin, Dave Burba). Sabean has also made multiple trades with Mike Flanagan, Jim Hendry, Bill Stoneman, and Kenny Williams.
The Giants need some help at first base, with Todd Walker and Phil Nevin surfacing as options. Sabean is not afraid to make a splash at the deadline, with such acquisitions as Jason Schmidt, Kenny Lofton, Sidney Ponson, and Randy Winn under his belt from previous Julys.
Sabean beat out the Cubs and Twins for Schmidt in ’01. To get Ponson in ’03, Sabean dealt with competition from the Braves and traded one of his best prospects in Kurt Ainsworth.
Trade History: The Pierzynski Deal
November 14th, 2003. A day that will forever haunt Giants fans. On that day, Brian Sabean dealt Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski and cash. A year later, the Giants would release Pierzynski. Bonser may become a tolerable fifth starter in the bigs, while Liriano and Nathan are among the very best starters and closers in baseball, respectively.
Hindsight is 20/20, right? It’s easy to rip on Sabean several years later. But was this like the Austin Kearns trade, where Wayne Krivsky was derided from the get-go? Or did the Pierzynski deal seem OK at the time? Let’s view this in context.
The 2003 San Francisco Giants used a combination of Benito Santiago and Yorvit Torrealba at catcher. The result was a batting line of .270/.320/.412. The average NL catcher hit .260/.328/.404 in ’03, so Santiago/Torrealba was tolerable. The club won 100 games and the NL West. However, they lost in the Division Series to the Marlins, who would of course go on to win the World Series.
The Giants traded for Pierzynski in November of ’03, and Torrealba would remain with the Giants in ’04 as his backup. Santiago signed with the Royals that winter for two years and $4.3MM. He would turn 39 before the season began. Santiago popped up in the BALCO case in March of ’04 but seemed unfazed. A broken hand from a hit-by-pitch knocked him out in late June, and he didn’t play for the Royals again.
Pierzynski was coming off a .312/.360/.464 season for the Twins, his best ever at age 26. He was the sixth-best hitting catcher in the game in 2003. His salary was due to rise several million dollars in arbitration and Joe Mauer was ready to go, so Terry Ryan explored his trade opportunities. A deal to the Cubs for Andy Sisco was mentioned, and the Padres expressed interest too. Ultimately A.J. became a Giant and slumped to .272/.318/.410, an offensive line that ranked 18th among backstops.
Brett Tomko called Pierzynski a "cancer" in May of ’04, calling for Yorvit Torrealba to take over. The Giants still considered a multiyear deal after the season, but then decided to go with Mike Matheny and let A.J. go.
Bonser was ranked 29th on Baseball America’s 2002 Top Prospects list, right behind Jake Peavy. A year later Rich Harden would earn the 29th spot, and Ervin Santana got the honors in ’04. Bonser never made another list. In ’03, he posted a 4.00 ERA in 135 Double A innings at age 21. Bonser now projects as a fifth starter with the Twins.
Liriano was ranked 83rd on BA’s 2003 list, ahead of Taylor Buchholz and Wily Mo Pena but behind bums like Ben Kozlowski, Chris Gruler, Kris Honel, and Josh Karp. Liriano was outranked on the list by teammates Jesse Foppert (4th), Jerome Williams (50th), Kurt Ainsworth (64th), and Todd Linden (82nd). Shoulder injuries limited Liriano to just nine innings in 2003. It was clear he had potential, but Liriano was anything but a lock. Just another in a long line of hard-throwing pitching prospects.
Joe Nathan never made an appearance on a Baseball America top prospects list. Drafted in 1995 in the sixth round, Nathan reached the Majors at age 24 in 1999. He made 14 starts for the Giants and had ugly marks in home runs allowed, free passes, and strikeout rate. Many teams approached Sabean about Nathan in the winter of ’99-’00, but he was regarded as untouchable.
Nathan started working on a changeup in 2000 while making 15 starts for the Giants. His numbers were even worse, as walks increased. He spent time on the DL with shoulder tightness that summer, but Dusty Baker made sure to get him right back out there ASAP. His shoulder caused a second DL stint in July. Surgery was considered, but Nathan ultimately took a cortisone shot and resumed pitching. The injury recurred a third time, causing Nathan to sit out the playoffs. Way to go, Dusty! Nathan had shoulder surgery in October of that year.
His velocity down to the mid-80s in ’01, Nathan toiled in Triple A until June before earning a demotion to Double A. Things improved a bit before the end of the season, and he was in the low 90s by the spring of ’02. He pitched poorly that year in Triple A but got a September call-up anyway.
In the spring of ’03, Nathan finally gave up starting and managed to earn a job with the Giants as a setup man for Tim Worrell out of spring training. He started the season with a 22 inning scoreless inning streak. After winning 12 games and posting a 2.96 ERA in 79 innings in his first season as a reliever, he became a major component of the Pierzynski trade.
At the time, here’s how I think each player was evaluated:
Liriano: interesting raw prospect with major injury concerns
Bonser: impressive young starting pitching prospect whose stock fell a bit in ’03
Nathan: converted starter coming off his best season; history of shoulder problems
Pierzynski: one of the game’s best-hitting catchers entering his prime with several seasons before free agency
Pierzynski was a coveted young backstop, and Sabean really only gave up one bona fide Major Leaguer to get him. Back in November of 2003, this looked like a deal that would benefit both teams. Liriano and Nathan could’ve easily been lost to the injury abyss and we wouldn’t be talking about this.
Trade History: The Pierzynski Deal
November 14th, 2003. A day that will forever haunt Giants fans. On that day, Brian Sabean dealt Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski and cash. A year later, the Giants would release Pierzynski. Bonser may become a tolerable fifth starter in the bigs, while Liriano and Nathan are among the very best starters and closers in baseball, respectively.
Hindsight is 20/20, right? It's easy to rip on Sabean several years later. But was this like the Austin Kearns trade, where Wayne Krivsky was derided from the get-go? Or did the Pierzynski deal seem OK at the time? Let's view this in context.
The 2003 San Francisco Giants used a combination of Benito Santiago and Yorvit Torrealba at catcher. The result was a batting line of .270/.320/.412. The average NL catcher hit .260/.328/.404 in '03, so Santiago/Torrealba was tolerable. The club won 100 games and the NL West. However, they lost in the Division Series to the Marlins, who would of course go on to win the World Series.
The Giants traded for Pierzynski in November of '03, and Torrealba would remain with the Giants in '04 as his backup. Santiago signed with the Royals that winter for two years and $4.3MM. He would turn 39 before the season began. Santiago popped up in the BALCO case in March of '04 but seemed unfazed. A broken hand from a hit-by-pitch knocked him out in late June, and he didn't play for the Royals again.
Pierzynski was coming off a .312/.360/.464 season for the Twins, his best ever at age 26. He was the sixth-best hitting catcher in the game in 2003. His salary was due to rise several million dollars in arbitration and Joe Mauer was ready to go, so Terry Ryan explored his trade opportunities. A deal to the Cubs for Andy Sisco was mentioned, and the Padres expressed interest too. Ultimately A.J. became a Giant and slumped to .272/.318/.410, an offensive line that ranked 18th among backstops.
Brett Tomko called Pierzynski a "cancer" in May of '04, calling for Yorvit Torrealba to take over. The Giants still considered a multiyear deal after the season, but then decided to go with Mike Matheny and let A.J. go.
Bonser was ranked 29th on Baseball America's 2002 Top Prospects list, right behind Jake Peavy. A year later Rich Harden would earn the 29th spot, and Ervin Santana got the honors in '04. Bonser never made another list. In '03, he posted a 4.00 ERA in 135 Double A innings at age 21. Bonser now projects as a fifth starter with the Twins.
Liriano was ranked 83rd on BA's 2003 list, ahead of Taylor Buchholz and Wily Mo Pena but behind bums like Ben Kozlowski, Chris Gruler, Kris Honel, and Josh Karp. Liriano was outranked on the list by teammates Jesse Foppert (4th), Jerome Williams (50th), Kurt Ainsworth (64th), and Todd Linden (82nd). Shoulder injuries limited Liriano to just nine innings in 2003. It was clear he had potential, but Liriano was anything but a lock. Just another in a long line of hard-throwing pitching prospects.
Joe Nathan never made an appearance on a Baseball America top prospects list. Drafted in 1995 in the sixth round, Nathan reached the Majors at age 24 in 1999. He made 14 starts for the Giants and had ugly marks in home runs allowed, free passes, and strikeout rate. Many teams approached Sabean about Nathan in the winter of '99-'00, but he was regarded as untouchable.
Nathan started working on a changeup in 2000 while making 15 starts for the Giants. His numbers were even worse, as walks increased. He spent time on the DL with shoulder tightness that summer, but Dusty Baker made sure to get him right back out there ASAP. His shoulder caused a second DL stint in July. Surgery was considered, but Nathan ultimately took a cortisone shot and resumed pitching. The injury recurred a third time, causing Nathan to sit out the playoffs. Way to go, Dusty! Nathan had shoulder surgery in October of that year.
His velocity down to the mid-80s in '01, Nathan toiled in Triple A until June before earning a demotion to Double A. Things improved a bit before the end of the season, and he was in the low 90s by the spring of '02. He pitched poorly that year in Triple A but got a September call-up anyway.
In the spring of '03, Nathan finally gave up starting and managed to earn a job with the Giants as a setup man for Tim Worrell out of spring training. He started the season with a 22 inning scoreless inning streak. After winning 12 games and posting a 2.96 ERA in 79 innings in his first season as a reliever, he became a major component of the Pierzynski trade.
At the time, here's how I think each player was evaluated:
Liriano: interesting raw prospect with major injury concerns
Bonser: impressive young starting pitching prospect whose stock fell a bit in '03
Nathan: converted starter coming off his best season; history of shoulder problems
Pierzynski: one of the game's best-hitting catchers entering his prime with several seasons before free agency
Pierzynski was a coveted young backstop, and Sabean really only gave up one bona fide Major Leaguer to get him. Back in November of 2003, this looked like a deal that would benefit both teams. Liriano and Nathan could've easily been lost to the injury abyss and we wouldn't be talking about this.
Todd Walker To The Giants?
According to a source of Bleed Cubbie Blue, Todd Walker will be traded this month. The source indicated that the Giants are the likely suitor and that they would use him at first base.
First base has been a black hole for San Francisco between Lance Niekro, Mark Sweeney, and a few others. The average NL first baseman is hitting .284/.364/.500 this year, while the Giants have gotten .251/.310/.393 out of their first basemen. You need a Lyle Overbay just to be average while the Giants have essentially been suffering through the offensive equivalent of Yuniesky Betancourt at first.
At .290/.361/.392, Walker still makes for a pretty lousy first baseman. However, he is a career .437 slugger so maybe that’ll pick up a bit. The Giants are 2.5 games out in the NL West and 1.5 games out of the wild card. The team will probably lose Jason Schmidt, Barry Bonds, and Moises Alou this offseason, so the time is now. In it this deep, Brian Sabean needs to acquire Pat Burrell, Alfonso Soriano, or Carlos Lee if he wants to actually gain some ground in the next two months. Adding Walker would just be an aesthetic change.
White Sox Pursuing Jason Schmidt?
Of couple of ESPN columnists seem to have independently arrived at the same trade rumor in their blogs in recent days. Buster Olney’s source is a "talent evaluator" while Jayson Stark got word from "an executive who has heard this talk."
According to Olney and Stark, the White Sox would trade Brandon McCarthy and Brian Anderson to the Giants for Jason Schmidt. The Sox would then acquire a center fielder in a separate trade.
Schmidt, 33, has been the NL’s second best pitcher this year behind Brandon Webb. This is his contract year and he’s making $10.5 million. Anderson and McCarthy were ranked #1 and #3 among White Sox prospects entering the 2005 season. McCarthy has had superb control at the big league level, with his one flaw being too many home runs allowed. U.S. Cellular inflates home runs by about 35%, while AT&T Park deflates them by around 10%. It’s been a rough 81 games for Anderson with the Sox, but the 24 year-old remains in high regard.
Freddy Garcia, Javier Vazquez, and Jon Garland haven’t performed as well as the Sox would’ve liked; all three own ERAs near 5 entering the All-Star break. Chicago would stand to gain an estimated three wins by replacing one of them with Schmidt. Olney speculated that Kenny Williams could consider using one of his surplus starters to acquire a center fielder.
Names that have come up in center include Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, or Aaron Rowand. None of the three seem feasible for various reasons. The Sox could also consider players like Luis Matos, Willy Taveras, Brady Clark, Juan Pierre, and Ken Griffey Jr. Clark would be a good fit if Doug Melvin makes him available. It certainly wouldn’t hurt to add Clark’s .380 OBP to the top of the lineup, and he plays capable defense. He’s signed through 2007.
Lilly Wants To Be A Giant
Ted Lilly was forthcoming yesterday with his desire: he’d like to play in the Bay Area for either the Giants or A’s. Lilly mentioned that he was looking at the Giants’ rotation and doesn’t know whether they would have an opening. I think we can reasonably answer his question.
Matt Morris, Noah Lowry, and Matt Cain form the foundation of the rotation.
Still, the Giants definitely will have a need for a starter. Jason Schmidt is a free agent after this season. If his first 52 innings are any indication, he’s going to have a huge price tag. San Francisco may have to deal him midseason; I know Boston has expressed some interest.
Then there’s Brad Hennessey and Jamey Wright, a couple of guys with journeyman written all over them. One of them might make a tolerable fifth but I wouldn’t bet on it. Plus, the whole Matt Morris idea ain’t lookin’ so good right now. The Giants have a few decent arms down at Double A, but their rotation has holes.
I don’t see the A’s re-signing Lilly, but they didn’t seem to have a big need for Esteban Loaiza either. Stranger things have happened.
The fact that Lilly has yet to fully realize his promise won’t stop clubs from bidding on the free agent. The southpaw seemed on the verge of a breakout after making 31 starts for the 2003 A’s. He had a healthy strikeout rate and kept the walks at a reasonable level. However, the A’s dealt him to Toronto that offseason because he was arbitration-eligible.
He started ’04 with a sore wrist. Lilly still made it through a decent year, tossing a career high in innings. His 4.06 per nine walk rate was a cause for concern, however.
Lilly began ’05 with another problem, shoulder tendinitis. The issue lingered and then in May of that year his pitching coach accused him of being "lethargic" after a side session. By July, the word was biceps tendinitis. This time there was the dreaded visit to Dr. Lewis Yocum. He made it out of there unscathed, but his shoulder blade caused discomfort by September.
This season, his non-throwing shoulder barked a little bit. Lilly seems OK now, and his 3.18 ERA through 34 innings looks pretty. Still, he won’t see sustained success walking more than four batters per nine unless he becomes unhittable again, as he was in ’04.
Given that Lilly will be 30 in 2006 and hasn’t shown both health and control in the same season since 2003, he’s probably going to be a bad signing. Baseball Prospectus says he’d only be worth about $6MM if signed for 2007-09. Nonetheless, if Barry stays and Schmidt leaves, I could see the Giants offering Lilly the standard 3/21 deal. As with Morris, it won’t end well.
Bonds Used Wide Array of PEDs
Must read:
Wow. Bonds sounds like a chemistry experiment. Could the publicity surrounding this drive him into retirement?
Interestingly, ESPN and Fox Sports haven’t picked up on this, probably because they don’t want to drive traffic to SportsIllustrated. C’mon guys, you can’t ignore this for much longer. Even MLB.com still hasn’t mentioned the story.
UPDATE: Now that the major outlets have begun discussing the new evidence, we should make a tally of how many times the word "damning" is used.
Can Bonds Top Aaron In 2006?
Barry Bonds needs 48 home runs to become the record holder. With the recent relevation that 2006 will be his last season, it’s almost become a foregone conclusion that he’ll never hit #756. Said Ken Rosenthal:
"If this season is Bonds’ last, Aaron’s mark almost certainly will be out of reach, saving MLB the embarrassment of celebrating a tainted slugger passing one of the game’s most dignified greats."
Rosenthal pulls no punches in tonight’s column, calling for Bonds to retire now and put everyone out of their misery.
Rather than engage in the typical judgment of Bonds as a person, I’m far more interested in his chances of pulling an upset and topping Aaron in 2006. Bonds needs 47 to tie and 48 to own the record.
The over/under on games played for Bonds in 2006 is 120, a number thrown out by Giants GM Brian Sabean last October. I don’t want to get all crazy statistical on you here, so let’s keep it simple and see how many games played Bonds might need to get those 48 HR. Below is a handy chart; feel free to skip it if you hate numbers.
| Year | PA | HR | PA/HR | G | PA/G |
| 2005 | 52 | 5 | 10.40 | 14 | 3.71 |
| 2004 | 617 | 45 | 13.71 | 147 | 4.20 |
| 2003 | 550 | 45 | 12.22 | 130 | 4.23 |
| 2002 | 612 | 46 | 13.30 | 143 | 4.28 |
| 2001 | 664 | 73 | 9.10 | 153 | 4.34 |
| 2495 | 214 | 11.66 | 587 | 4.25 |
The PA/HR indicates how many plate appearances Bonds needed per HR that year. You can see that his 2005 pace was his best since he set the single season record, though it’s probably silly to draw conclusions from such a tiny sample. But for the sake of argument, let’s say Bonds performs at the exact same pace as 2005 this season. In that case, he’d need to play in 135 games to break the record. Don’t you think he’d find a way to tolerate the pain and get into those extra 15 games?
In our example above, Bonds was getting less than four plate appearances per game. Felipe Alou was careful with his superstar, as Bonds didn’t play until September 12th. Though he’ll continue to be pulled early in 2006, let’s say that Bonds agrees to bat second and somehow manages to get exactly four plate appearances per game. It’d still be less than any of the four seasons before 2005. In this case, Bonds would only need 125 games to break Aaron’s record.
Bonds will need anywhere from 440 to 660 plate appearances to hit 48 home runs. In the best case he’ll go deep every ten plate appearances and in at the worst it might take fourteen. It’s all just a numbers game, but Bonds has an entirely legitimate chance to hit his 756th HR in 2006.
Bill James pegged Bonds’s chance at 756 at 28% in his latest book, while A-Rod has a 37% chance. Albert Pujols has a 16% likelihood. So all the Bonds haters can take solace in the distinct possibility that one of today’s untainted stars will glide right by his HR total in ten or fifteen years and even make it to 800.
Trade Candidates Part 1
With the hot stove not all that hot at the moment, I thought I’d run down some guys who could be traded between now and July 31st in an attempt to peer into the future. Part 1 of the series will focus on some of the players in their contract year.
Barry Bonds is unlikely to be dealt, given that the Giants have pinned most of their offensive hopes on him. But if, for some reason, the team is out of contention in July and Bonds is looking more awful than usual in the field, a deal to the AL could be in the cards. Adding Bonds at DH could mean 4-5 extra wins in the second half alone, so I’d expect a big bounty even with his $18MM salary and impending free agency.
We’re all pretty much assuming Jose Contreras will be dealt. Some say it’d be most prudent for the Sox to wait til spring training and take stock before sending him off to the Mets, Phillies, or wherever else. On the other hand, if there was ever a time to sell high, it’s right now.
One name I haven’t seen thrown about in trade rumors at all is Greg Maddux. I assume it’s because he’s over 40 and makes $9MM in 2006, but Mad Dog could be a big help to a contender at the deadline. I’ve projected a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; he’s got plenty left. Even if the Cubs had to eat a few mil, it’d make more sense to trade Maddux than Jerome Williams. If the health of Wood, Prior, and Miller works out in their favor the Cubs could have a surplus.
Jason Marquis is projected to post a 4.43 ERA in 200 innings. He’d be serviceable as rental for the season, and he’s still on the right side of 30. I’m not sure which teams will be chomping at the bit to give him the three year, $21MM extension he’ll require, but someone will.
Mark Mulder is also under 30, though he’s shown some ugly trends over the past three seasons. It’ll be interesting to see how Walt Jocketty views Mulder – perhaps Mulder will take the St. Louis discount to keep that top-notch defense behind him?
It seems that Andy Pettitte wouldn’t be dealt by the Astros midseason pretty much no matter what. Even when the Astros have been counted out they’ve made the playoffs, so it’d be impossible to justify trading Pettitte to the fanbase.
I’m fairly certain the Cubs will sign Juan Pierre to a long-term deal. Especially if he hits .309 as projected and impresses the old hands with his bunting skills and work ethic. Politically, Jim Hendry almost has to keep Pierre around in case one of the three pitchers sent to Florida pans out.
Jason Schmidt could be a hot commodity, but, like Bonds, is a long shot to be dealt. I think the Giants would look for a young bat in return.
More impending free agents and trade candidates to come…
Matt Morris San Francisco Projection
The always reliable Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Matt Morris is close to signing a deal with the Giants. This has been speculated for some time now, and I created a projection for Morris as a Giant about a month ago. I figured I’d try to get some more mileage out of that RotoAuthority post.
New at RotoAuthority today is my Prince Fielder projection. Prince is nearly a lock for 30 HR, and a must-have in fantasy baseball.
Finally, we’ve got new material at HoopsBuzz – seems that Ron Artest has demanded a trade.