Cardinals Re-Sign Russ Springer
According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cards have re-signed reliever Russ Springer. Not sure on the amount yet, but Springer earned $2MM in ’07 after adding incentives.
Springer had a career year at 38, posting a 2.18 ERA with a 3.5 K/BB ratio in 66 innings.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Bonds, Nathan, Barrett
Ken Rosenthal has a new rumor column up. Feels like it’s been a while.
- Rosenthal thinks it’s a sign of desperation that the Angels would entertain signing Barry Bonds, who doesn’t fit in with their club. His OBP would fit in anywhere, but he would tie up the DH spot at the expense of Juan Rivera and Vladimir Guerrero.
- The Cubs are expected to bring Daryle Ward back at $1.2MM (makes sense) and Steve Trachsel at $4.75MM (questionable). Cubs fans can only hope Trachsel would be considered a tradeable asset, as Rosenthal opines. Rosenthal also quashes the idea of trading Aramis Ramirez, both because of his full no-trade clause and the team’s impending sale.
- David Eckstein is expected to leave the Cardinals, no big surprise. Rosenthal reiterates recent rumors connecting him to the White Sox, Tigers, and Mets.
- Rosenthal’s idea for Bill Smith and the Twins: keep Johan Santana this winter, and instead trade the $6MM super-closer Joe Nathan. Teams would line up for him, and Pat Neshek wouldn’t be a bad replacement.
- Do you think Michael Barrett could be a free agent bargain? Rosenthal talked to one exec who feels this way, and it is a good point if he can bounce back to .280/.350/.480 for five million bucks.
Phillies Have $20MM To Burn
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Todd Zolecki tallied up the Phillies’ commitments and determined that they have roughly $20MM free to spend on pitching, third base, and perhaps Aaron Rowand. Zolecki feels that the Phils would choose to let Rowand walk if they couldn’t fit it all in the budget.
Zolecki mentions Mike Lowell as a possibility for the hot corner; that’d run $8-12MM for ’08 depending on how you backload it. Lowell seems in line for at least two years, $22MM. Gordon Edes has speculated that it could require a three or four year commitment. The Phillies at least fall under the teams on Lowell’s list, it appears.
The other $10MM or so might all have to go toward a starting pitcher. The Phillies have Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, Cole Hamels, and Kyle Kendrick locked in. If the Phils don’t like the free agent market (they had interest in reacquiring Carlos Silva this summer), they could pursue Jon Garland or Dontrelle Willis via trade. The Phils have also scouted Anthony Reyes.
That doesn’t leave any money for Andruw Jones, despite recent speculation.
Cards Exercise $8MM Option On Isringhausen
John Mozeliak’s first move as Cardinals interim GM was a no-brainer – he exercised Jason Isringhausen‘s $8MM option for 2008. Always good to throw the new guy a softball.
There was some speculation in early August that Walt Jocketty might consider overwriting the option by extending Izzy for 2008-09. That move backfired with Jim Edmonds, and Mozeliak apparently has taken the more conservative approach.
As a reminder, the Cardinals have roughly $20MM to burn and hope to acquire a shortstop, a power hitter, and two starters.
Brian Gunn On Walt Jocketty
Brian Gunn is a regular at Baseball Analysts and The Hardball Times, among other places. Recalling his fine "GM In A Box" piece on Walt Jocketty in the THT annual a few years back, I asked him to dispel his wisdom once again on the Cards ex-GM. His piece follows.
WALT JOCKETTY
By Brian Gunn
So just two days after Terry Ryan steps down as GM of the Twinkies, Walt Jocketty is out as GM of the Cards. Both of them were front-office graybeards – Ryan took the top job in ’94, Jocketty the year after – and both were very successful despite operating in small to mid-size Midwestern markets. But stylistically they were radically different. Ryan was a shepherd – nursing his homegrown flock, even hording it – while Jocketty was a big-game hunter. He generally looked elsewhere for talent, and he landed some of the biggest names around. Here’s a brief look at his legacy, and some thoughts about the organization (or perhaps disorganization) he left behind…
JOCKETTY’S STRENGTHS
Jocketty built arguably the premier National League franchise of this decade. Since 2000, the Cardinals own more regular-seasons wins than any other NL team, won more playoff games, won more league titles, and, of course, won it all in 2006.
How did Jocketty do it? First of all, he was fearless. A master wheeler-dealer, nobody did a better job turning lemons into lemonade, often flipping questionable talent for marquee players.
Consider:
Jocketty landed, via trade, Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Renteria, Darryl Kile, Scott Rolen, Dennis Eckersley, Todd Stottlemyre, Fernando Vina, Larry Walker, Will Clark, Adam Wainwright, and Woody Williams.
Here are the most notable players he gave up to get them: Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews, Kent Bottenfield, Adam Kennedy, Braden Looper, Pablo Ozuna, Manny Aybar, Jose Jimenez, Placido Polanco, Bud Smith, Steve Montgomery, Jay Witasick, Juan Acevedo, Chris Narveson, Jose Leon, one year of J.D. Drew, and the waning days of Ray Lankford’s career.
It’s an astonishing haul. Generally Jocketty would use the same formula: go after some established but underappreciated star, give up a few middling prospects for him, let him soak in the cozy St. Louis fan experience, win ballgames, re-sign the guy to an extension (often with a hometown discount), win more ballgames, then repeat the whole process as one big feedback loop. Jocketty was a master at that (and he was probably the best trading-deadline dealer there ever was – that’s how he got McGwire, Clark, Williams, Rolen, Walker, Chuck Finley, and Fernando Tatis).
Jocketty’s other big strength? Cobbling together a pitching staff on the cheap. It took him a while to get the hang of it – Cards’ hurlers in the ‘90s were usually awful. But Jocketty, along with rehab specialists Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan, were able to buy low for arms like Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, and Darryl Kile, and let them succeed in front of those reliable St. Louis infielders. At its best it worked beautifully. For example, in 2005 the Cards led the majors in ERA with a starting rotation that cost, altogether, $17 million – or less than what Roger Clemens alone made that year.
JOCKETTY’S WEAKNESSES
He was never that great at developing talent from within. Oh sure, he had his moments – he drafted and signed both Rick Ankiel and J.D. Drew when other teams wouldn’t touch ‘em for fear of being out-negotiated by Scott Boras. And of course, Jocketty was responsible for Albert Pujols, merely the best player in the league, if not all of baseball. But by and large the Cards’ cupboard ran rather bare during the Jocketty years. Baseball America has recently ranked them near the bottom of all major-league farm systems, and the Cards have been especially weak locating talent overseas. Perhaps that’s the flipside of Jocketty’s wheeling-and-dealing prowess – it gave him a sense that the team didn’t need to develop from within in order to succeed.
Jocketty’s other big weakness was that he tended to construct rather shallow rosters. Often the ballclub would be led by big shots like Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen, while the margins were raggedy at best. Cards fans no doubt remember some of the team’s biggest playoff games left in the hands of shlubs like Craig Paquette, Garrett Stephenson, or Jason Marquis. To be fair, however, Jocketty improved in this area over the last couple years. The Cards’ bench and bullpen were among the best in the league this past year, and role players were crucial to winning the World Series in 2006.
JOCKETTY’S BEST MOVE
Landing McGwire was a masterstroke that rejuvenated the franchise, but I’d still go with the trade of Bottenfield and Kennedy to the Angels for Jim Edmonds. In 1999 Bottenfield was an 18-game winner while Edmonds was an underperformer clouded by “character issues.” But Jocketty noticed that Bottenfield’s peripherals were weak, Edmonds were strong, and he moved on a deal. Kennedy ended up a dependable starter in Anaheim, but Edmonds ended up the best centerfielder in baseball for a number of years.
JOCKETTY’S WORST MOVE
I can still remember December 18, 2004, when the Cards traded starter Danny Haren, reliever Kiko Calero, and hitting prodigy Daric Barton for Mark Mulder. As others have pointed out (I can’t remember where), Calero for Mulder straight-up would’ve been a poor deal for the Cards, to say nothing of losing Haren and Barton. When I first heard the news I became literally sick to my stomach, and the feeling hasn’t quite gone away.
THE FUTURE
I’m not sure where Jocketty may be headed – I’ve heard Seattle and Cincinnati as rumors, but who knows. As for the Cardinals, Tony La Russa will almost surely follow Jocketty out the door (supposedly TLR was considering leaving town anyway, and the presence of a new GM would only add to the awkwardness).
As an organization, the Cardinals should be much more committed to development and performance analysis. Supposedly Jocketty deeply pissed off his bosses – owner Bill DeWitt and team president Mark Lamping – for failing to develop an amicable working relationship with VP of player development (and stat maven) Jeff Luhnow. Supposedly Luhnow lived in fear of being seen around Busch Stadium, especially with reporters, for fear it would get back to Jocketty. And the Jocketty wing of the organization – the old-school scouting types – generally treated Luhnow, according to one source, “like a war criminal.” That should change with Jocketty’s ouster. Expect the Cards to commit to rebuilding and a renewed emphasis on objective analysis. Whether this occurs under interim GM John Mozeliak, or an outsider like Logan White, Paul DePodesta, or Chris Antonetti, we shall see…
Walt Jocketty Dismissed
According to Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals have apparently dismissed GM Walt Jocketty. Assistant GM John Mozeliak will step in for now and perhaps the future. We’ll have some more thoughts on the move later tonight. My initial reaction is that if this helps mend the front office rift, it’s a good thing.
Cardinals Have Work To Do
Joe Strauss has had several insightful articles lately about the future of the Cardinals. Let’s discuss.
- The Cardinals have $83.8MM committed to 12 players for 2008. Even worse, they don’t know what they’re going to get out of Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Chris Carpenter, Juan Encarnacion, and Mark Mulder. They are spending $45MM on those five and may get very little production.
- Next year’s payroll may approach $115MM on the high end, but that doesn’t mean the Cards have $30MM to burn. Their 0-3 guys will earn roughly $5MM in aggregate, and the arbitration-eligible group may run another $5MM even if a few are cut loose. So I’m thinking more like $20MM to burn, and Walt Jocketty will have to stretch that money pretty far.
- The Cardinals need a power hitter, two starters, and a shortstop. Tony La Russa, if he returns, won’t be "going young."
- Joel Pineiro could be one of the starters, but if the Cards view him as a cheap #5 they’re going to be disappointed. He’ll get paid.
- An earlier Strauss article has a couple of rumors of note. We learned that the Cards were fairly close to signing Miguel Batista last winter and almost traded Anthony Reyes to the Phillies this summer.
Here’s what I see happening this winter. The Cards will fill the rotation spots with one mid-level signing and one cheaper wild card type guy. I could see a Carlos Silva being paired with a Matt Clement. Randy Wolf could fill the wild card role if the Dodgers won’t have him back.
It might make sense to fill the shortstop hole and need for a power bat in one fell swoop. On the surface it seems like Miguel Tejada would fit the bill and Edgar Renteria wouldn’t, though Renteria outslugged Tejada this year. Regardless I expect the Cardinals to make an aggressive push for one of them (Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos got me thinking along these lines).
Needs and Luxuries: St. Louis Cardinals
I’ve had several requests for the Cardinals in this series, so here we go.
C – Yadier Molina
1B – Albert Pujols
2B – Adam Kennedy
SS – Brendan Ryan
3B – Scott Rolen
LF – Chris Duncan/Ryan Ludwick
CF – Jim Edmonds
RF – Rick Ankiel
SP – Adam Wainwright
SP – Braden Looper
SP – Chris Carpenter (half season at best)
SP – Mark Mulder
SP – Brad Thompson/Anthony Reyes/Todd Wellemeyer
Setup: Ryan Franklin
Closer: Jason Isringhausen
Needs
For starters, the Cards might need a shortstop. 25 year-old Brendan Ryan is hitting .302/.355/.426 in 169 ABs, better than his Triple A performance (.272/.328/.341 in 323 ABs). I spoke to Viva El Birdos‘ Larry Borowsky on this topic today. Assuming Tony La Russa is around, Larry doesn’t expect Ryan to get starting gig at short next year. You may recall La Russa’s benching of Ryan recently for swinging at a 3-0 pitch and his general lack of patience with youngsters.
Larry speculated that David Eckstein would be allowed to walk and the team would try to make a splash by acquiring a shortstop via trade, perhaps Rafael Furcal or another go-round with Edgar Renteria. Makes sense. The Cards have some interesting young players: Duncan, Ankiel, Reyes, Colby Rasmus, Bryan Anderson, Jamie Garcia, Blake Hawksworth, Jarrett Hoffpauir, and Mark Hamilton. Obviously you don’t want to gut the farm system for one year of a decent veteran shortstop. Reyes is a young player who is out of options and has had some chances already. I could see him with the Braves.
The other need is, of course, starting pitching. The Cardinals revamped their rotation this year, and the two bullpen converts stuck. They can hope for but not count on Carpenter and Mulder. They can fill the fifth slot with whoever. Don’t pencil in Joel Pineiro‘s $4MM player option for ’08 just yet – he might prefer to hit the open market. It seems that one or two decent starters must be imported. Borowsky discusses trade candidates here, and here’s the free agent list. It’d be nice to sign a healthy free agent, but Kyle Lohse is going to want $40MM. There are many other intriguing gambles among the free agent starters.
Luxuries
I’m not confident that the Cardinals have a surplus of anything. It’s true that they have a lot of outfielders, but they all have issues. Duncan can’t hit lefties or play defense. Ludwick is a 29 year-old journeyman. Ankiel has the HGH stigma. Edmonds is old, expensive, and ineffective. Encarnacion’s terrible injury may be career-threatening. Rasmus isn’t ready. Still, if a big trade is made, it might have to include Duncan.
As I said earlier, Reyes is out of options and a prime candidate to be dealt. He turns 26 soon; plenty of clubs would like to try to turn him around. He might be part of a package for a shortstop or veteran starter.
In any other division I’d recommend this team cash in its chips and go for a full-blown rebuild. But this is the NL Central, and if a few offseason gambles work out they can be right back in the thick of things.
Cards Need Starters For ’08
Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos writes today that the Cardinals again will need to revamp their starting rotation this winter. He says Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper are the "sure things" for ’08.
We all know how weak the free agent market is. Borowsky points out that the trade market looks much better, with a host of good pitchers set to reach free agency after the ’08 season. And don’t forget possibly available young under-contract guys like Joe Blanton and Noah Lowry.
Borowsky prefers A.J. Burnett but finds a Jon Garland rental more reasonable. However the Cards’ cupboard of prospects is a bit bare and a trade would probably center around Anthony Reyes.
Could White Sox Sign Torii Hunter?
The Twins came to Chicago on Friday, sparking another round of Torii Hunter speculation for the White Sox. Hunter, of course, played it cool. He basically said he’d be honored if the Sox wanted him, and wouldn’t have a problem playing for one of the Twins’ biggest rivals.
Remember, though, that Hunter’s bare minimum contract is 5/75 and the White Sox are currently looking at $92MM+ committed for 2008. Even a backloaded deal would take the Sox close to their payroll limit. While moving Jon Garland for cheap young players is a distinct possibility, I’m not sure if the rotation can take the hit. And no one’s taking on Jose Contreras‘s contract. Kenny Williams is in a bit of a pickle as his farm system could use a reload but the team has too many veterans to rebuild. He could trade them all off but Sox fans would revolt.
Despite the salary concern, Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press names the Sox as Hunter’s leading suitor and crosses the Cardinals off the list.