Rosenthal’s Latest Video
Ken Rosenthal reeled off a slew of sweet trade rumors in a couple of videos today, which you can watch at FOXSports. Let’s discuss.
- Rosenthal says the Cubs won’t trade Carlos Zambrano unless they fall out of contention or the big righty requests a trade. Rosenthal finds neither scenario likely. He says Zambrano still has a good relationship with Jim Hendry, and the Cubs still intend to sign him. The contract remains on hold. Interesting, but not surprising to see that the Cubs are still veering towards this mistake after what we’ve seen this year.
- Lots of good Jermaine Dye stuff from Rosenthal. About ten days ago, the White Sox kicked around the idea of sending Dye to the Yankees for Bobby Abreu. The Yanks covet Dye’s right-handed power, and Ozzie loves Abreu, his countryman. Rosenthal says the White Sox like the option of keeping Abreu for $16MM in ’08 if they so choose. That option comes with a $2MM buyout attached. The Dye/Abreu swap may be on hold because Dye is finally showing some signs of life. I have to be honest – I don’t understand the timeline here. If the Sox were considering this ten days ago, nothing Dye has done since should have changed their thinking.
- Other suitors for Dye: the Padres or Dodgers. The two NL West competitors rank 10th and 12th in the league in slugging, respectively. No doubt the Dodgers have the goods, but what reasonable trade could the Padres work out? Kenny Williams and Kevin Towers have matched up twice before, but on minor trades involving guys like D’Angelo Jimenez and Geoff Blum.
- Rosenthal says the Padres are also eyeing Adam Dunn, for whom their pitchers’ ballpark would present less of an obstacle. Two hitches: Dunn can become a free agent after this season if he’s traded, and the Reds will ask for a lot. The Padres’ best pitching prospect, Cesar Carrillo, recently had Tommy John surgery. Their best hitting prospect, Cedric Hunter, is trying to figure out Low A ball. Third baseman Chase Headley is hitting well in Double A, and I’m sure plenty of teams would like to have him. Headley is somewhat blocked by Kevin Kouzmanoff. Honestly, though, the Padres don’t have much in the minors to trade. At the Major League level, they might be able to part with Cla Meredith and get a decent hitter in return.
Cardinal Trade Rumor Roundup
My apologies for posting some rumors from a few days ago; I’m still catching up. Today’s let’s look at some recent Cardinals trade rumors.
The first question is whether the team should conduct some form of a fire sale. Right now, they’re still mired in the NL Central race at 6.5 games out. But if the team does spiral out of contention by July 31st, it might make sense to trade Jason Isringhausen. He’s probably their best trading chip. Cards beat writer Joe Strauss mentions the Braves, Indians, and Cubs as teams that would have interest in the 34 year-old closer. After Izzy was nearly left for dead/retired in ’06, he’s bounced back with 13 saves in the season’s first two months. He makes $8.75MM this year with an $8MM club option for ’08. That includes a $1.25MM buyout.
The Isringhausen trade option represents the worst case scenario. Let’s consider what the Cardinals might do to improve in the short term. Catcher Yadier Molina should be sidelined for at least a month with a broken wrist. One option is Royals catcher Jason LaRue, who’s owed about $1.65MM on the season by KC. The one concern is that LaRue is 7 for 57 on the season, and didn’t hit at all last year. At 33, he may have to permanently join the Brotherhood of Backup Catchers, if he hasn’t already. Yadier’s brother Jose may be an option as well.
Also on the radar: comeback kid Troy Percival. The Cards will watch him throw, if they haven’t already. St. Louis joins roughly a half-dozen teams in the Percival pursuit. More than that, if you add the Giants and A’s to the mix.
Barrett, Zambrano Have It Out
This is going to have trade implications. You may have seen the video of Carlos Zambrano and Michael Barrett having something of a slap fight in the Cubs’ dugout today. Something to do with a Barrett passed ball; it seems that Zambrano may have been truly ignited when Barrett gestured to the scoreboard, perhaps reminding Zambrano of the seven runs he allowed.
If the extent of it was the dugout scuffle, this would be something that could blow over. However, the fighting spilled over to the locker room. Lou Piniella mentions in his press conference that Barrett was sent to the hospital for a busted lip. CubDumb, a source I trust for inside Cubs info, has found Barrett’s injuries to be far worse than a split lip. As they say, Barrett probably wouldn’t go to the hospital for that. If the 255 lb. Zambrano really gave Barrett a frighteningly severe beating in the locker room, he probably punched his ticket out of Chicago.
Both players are free agents after this season, and it’s certainly possible the Cubs retain neither. Zambrano’s five-year, $85MM or so extension was tabled in April, not a bad move for the Cubs. I don’t think Zambrano is all the sudden a worthless pitcher, but I still think his best years are behind him. Despite his struggles, Jim Hendry could get a very useful young player or two for him this July.
Barrett’s future is in doubt, as no one as ever been thrilled with his defense or handling of the pitching staff. I think these aspects are typically overplayed in the media, and that a catcher who hits well is worth it. The biggest problem with trading him or letting him walk is that the Cubs have no one to replace him and the free agent market is bleak. The Blue Jays have had interest in Barrett in the past, but are not in a position to acquire a player in his walk year.
Bonus random thought: I do not want to see newspaper columnists continue to say the Cubs are third in the league in "hitting" because they have a .266 team batting average. Here in 2007, we know that batting average is just a subset of on-base percentage, for which the Cubs rank eighth. They are eighth in OBP, seventh in slugging. Their offense has been right in the middle of the pack.
The Percival Chase
My apologies to the loyal readers hoping for more posts this weekend – my wife and I are painting the condo. Good times.
For those keeping score at home, here’s a summary of Troy Percival‘s suitors. He won’t be returning to the Angels, but plenty of other clubs want in.
Though interest hasn’t been confirmed, Devil Rays manager Joe Maddon thinks highly of Percival. The Indians are another club where only speculation exists. Let’s add the Cubs to that list; Phil Rogers notes the team’s interest in the 2004-05 offseason. Back then, the Cubs wisely decided to open the season with LaTroy Hawkins at closer given Joe Borowski‘s broken hand. OK, maybe not so wisely.
Last week, two teams publicly showed interest in the Tigers and Phillies. Now we know the Marlins are "closely monitoring" Percival as well. It wouldn’t be right to have a Marlin season go by without the club resurrecting a closer.
Speculated interest: Devil Rays, Indians, Cubs
Confirmed interest: Tigers, Phillies, Marlins
Not interested: Angels
Cubs Offering Murton For Relief Help
According to John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus:
"The Chicago Cubs desperately need bullpen help, and reportedly would part with outfielder Matt Murton in the right deal."
For a team built to win now, that might make sense. Sure, you’d rather see the more expensive Jacque Jones go, but teams would of course rather acquire the younger, cheaper Murton. Murton, 25, only has 87 ABs this year. Cubs fans hoped to see him get a full-time look following a solid .297/.365/.444 season, but Lou Piniella hasn’t complied.
What kind of deals might work here? To the Nationals for Jon Rauch or Chad Cordero? To the White Sox for Mike MacDougal? That’d be a tasty crosstown deal. Is he enough to bring in Scott Linebrink, Eric Gagne, or Akinori Otsuka? I have a hard time pinning down Murton’s market value because I’m a Cubs fan. He seems a touch more than a tweener, perhaps a guy who can become a healthy version of a late-20s Rondell White.
The Cubs got White from the Expos at the 2000 trading deadline for Scott Downs. Downs was a 21 year-old southpaw coming off a 1.35 ERA and 11.36 K/9 in Double A the year before.
Cubs Trade Speculation
What are those crazy Cubs up to now? They’ve got some surprising plans regarding their pitching staff. Here’s the rundown:
- Ryan Dempster may switch back to starting, after he mentors the future closer. Dempster made six starts for the Cubs to begin 2005, four of which were quality efforts. Apparently the Cubs think his repertoire is better suited as a starter. He’s due $10.5MM for 2007-08, and if he can emerge as a quality #4 type starter the contract won’t look so bad. Dempster’s best season came in 2000 with the Marlins, when he made the All-Star team and won 14 games. His success will depend on his control. It doesn’t appear that the Cubs are shopping him, though Paul Sullivan speculated that the Yankees could be interested.
- Angel Guzman will be groomed as the next Cubs closer. This is an interesting and unexpected idea. He’s looked sharp in relief this year, but it’s only been seven innings. He does have good stuff and decent control. Phil Rogers offers a little Chad Cordero speculation. It seems the Cubs will try internal options first, with the knowledge that most great closers were once starters.
- Rogers seems to think the Cubs should let the inconsistent Carlos Zambrano walk after this season, and focus that money towards a big name hitter. He names Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Kosuke Fukudome as options. I like the Fukudome idea. According to Mike Plugh, Fukudome is best served as a right fielder. A Cubs outfield of Soriano, Pie, and Fukudome could be a nice core. Not sure where that would leave Matt Murton, however.
- Rogers also reminds us that the Cubs nearly signed Japanese ace starter Hiroki Kuroda last winter, and could try again after the season. Kuroda has great command, and won’t require a posting fee. Kuroda chose to re-sign with the Hiroshima Carps last winter. He’ll turn 33 before the 2008 season.
Would Buehrle Play For Cubs?
Every year, writers try to help ignite the Cubs-White Sox rivalry prior to the interleague series. Back in ’05, Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle was asked if he’d ever sign with the Cubs:
"It depends. It’s one of those things that if no team in baseball wants me and they do, I’ll go over there and sign. But I have my places that in the back of my mind — I’m not saying Wrigley — there are a couple of cities that if I was a free agent and they offered me, I wouldn’t go there. Even if it came down to however much money, I just wouldn’t feel comfortable going to those places to play."
He didn’t exactly seem open to donning a Cub uniform at that point. It’s interesting to note that the article indicates that Buehrle might avoid New York, regardless of money.
Has anything changed, two years later? Not really, but it seems that Buehrle leaves the door open an extra crack now that he may actually depart the White Sox:
"Anything’s possible. Put it that way. I never say never because I said I’d never throw a no-hitter and that happened. Anything’s possible. I’m not a big fan of going over to that place. It would be different. Just with the whole Cubs-Sox rivalry, it’s just so hectic getting over there, tickets and all that stuff."
Still looks like a long shot for Buehrle to become the Cubs’ third southpaw in ’08. Interestingly, it could become four if Donald Veal comes along. Realistically, his hometown Cardinals remain the favorite for Buehrle. If he wants to stay in the midwest, maybe the Reds would become an option.
A-Rod Chicago Speculation
The Chicago Tribune’s Phil Rogers breaks down the factors involved that might result in Alex Rodriguez playing in Chicago in 2008. Let’s break it down in a nifty bullet-point format.
The Cubs
- Rodriguez played under Lou Piniella in Chicago, and the two are said to have a strong relationship. That’s where a lot of this speculation begins. But won’t it just come down to money in the end?
- Third base is fully blocked by Aramis Ramirez, where shortstop is fairly open. The Cubs won’t exercise Cesar Izturis‘s option, but will have Ryan Theriot around. No matter how much A-Rod’s shortstop defense is lacking, I can’t picture it beyond worse than Theriot’s. Piniella might prefer to use Theriot in a superutility role with a focus on second base.
- The Cubs don’t seem to despise Scott Boras, dealing smoothly with him for recent signees Greg Maddux and Jeff Samardzija.
- While the Cubs showed a willingness to sign a player to a ridiculous contract with the Alfonso Soriano deal, the team will be sold after the season. That seems quite likely to interfere with an A-Rod megadeal, even if Jim Hendry says it’s business as usual.
The White Sox
- It’s well-known that the team’s brass likes A-Rod. They flirted with him in 2000 when he first reached free agency.
- The Sox could make room at short or third for Rodriguez, as Joe Crede has been mentioned in trade rumors for some time and Josh Fields is no sure thing. The team seems likely to decline its club option on Juan Uribe.
- Recent White Sox clubs have not gone crazy bidding on free agents. However, the Sox have shown the ability to pony up major cash. In particular I’m thinking of the five year, $55MM deal given to Albert Belle before the 1997 season. That one made Belle the highest paid player in baseball. Like A-Rod, Belle had a clause to opt out if he wasn’t the highest paid player in baseball.
- Unlike the Cubs, the White Sox have had beef with Scott Boras in the past. However, Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf said that despite their differences, he would sign a reasonably priced Boras client. Not sure A-Rod would qualify, but if you’re going to spend big bucks you might as well do it on a superstar.
- If the Sox are able to replace Mark Buehrle internally, they’ll have some free cash to account for the difference between Jermaine Dye‘s and Rodriguez’s salaries. I would view A-Rod as Dye’s replacement in the lineup.
I have to give the edge to the White Sox here, as the Cubs will likely be in a state of flux next winter. The Sox seem to be leaning toward rebuilding, though, and I don’t think a $100MM+ contract fits the plan. There should be plenty more speculation over the next several months but I don’t expect Rodriguez to land in Chicago.
Rosenthal On Zambrano
Ken Rosenthal says of Carlos Zambrano:
"Imagine him wearing another uniform next season. Barring a sudden, unexpected twist, that’s where this is going."
He goes on to run through various Zambrano suitors for the upcoming offseason: the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Astros, Angels, Dodgers, and Tigers. Rosenthal throws the Rangers, Orioles, Mariners, and Phillies into the mix as well. Might as well include the Blue Jays on that list as well.
As a lifelong Cubs fan, obviously it would be hard for me to see Zambrano depart. The biggest blunder in Cubs history was letting a 27 year-old Greg Maddux become a Brave.
Still, I do wonder whether unlike Mad Dog at the time, Z’s best years are behind him. His climbing walk rate is scary, and you can’t help but question the long-term health prospects for a power pitcher with his mileage. What can we expect from Zambrano’s age 27-31 seasons? I really like the Mark Gubicza comparison. Both are big righties who logged roughly 1,000 Major League innings before their 26th birthdays. Gubicza was a horse up until his age 28 season, when the wear and tear started to catch up with him.
If Zambrano straightens himself out and wins 15 games and the Cubs make the playoffs, fans will be clamoring for his retention. However, the big picture outlook says to let him walk and take the draft picks, or even trade him in July. The contract will be for a minimum five years, and perhaps as many as seven if he hits the open market. $17MM annually might be below market value, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.
Jim Hendry Trade Profile
Jim Hendry took over as the General Manager of the Cubs on July 5th, 2002. The team was awful that year, finishing 67-95. However, the team’s Pythagorean record of 76-86 indicated better things to come. Let’s take a look at Hendry’s deals over the years, and try to determine his tendencies and favorite trading partners. He’s been quite active, making 48 trades by my count.
One trend I noticed is that Hendry hasn’t gotten much in return when trying to dump veterans from out-of-contention clubs. He failed to trade Fred McGriff in ’02, opting to send off Darren Lewis for Chad Hermansen at the July deadline. That year, Hendry preferred to dump off his vets in August, ditching Tom Gordon, Jeff Fassero, and Bill Mueller for nothing of consequence. (He later dumped many vets like Matt Lawton, Greg Maddux, Todd Hollandsworth, Phil Nevin, Scott Williamson, Todd Walker, and Neifi Perez without receiving useful players.)
Hendry’s first offseason was a success. He revamped his catching corps by getting Damian Miller and Paul Bako, and somehow managed to send off Todd Hundley for two helpful players in Mark Grudzielanek and Eric Karros. The Cubs netted about six wins in ’03 with the acquisitions. Hermansen was in that deal so maybe we can say Hendry acquired one useful player in a salary dump trade.
You’ll notice that much of the core of the current Cubs team came from Hendry’s generally fine trading skills. He fleeced Dave Littefield for Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton in July of ’03, and went back to grab Randall Simon in August. Ramirez was only 25 at the time of the deal and had hit 34 HR as a 23 year-old. Unbelievable that Bobby Hill could get this done.
Hendry’s finest trade came in the winter of ’03, when he acquired Derrek Lee for Hee Seop Choi during the Marlins’ fire sale. Choi never panned out, while Lee blossomed into a star. Marlins GM Larry Beinfest exacted his revenge on Hendry two years later in the Juan Pierre deal – one of Hendry’s few trade missteps. Hendry surrendered useful young pitchers Ricky Nolasco, Sergio Mitre, and Renyel Pinto for Pierre. A month after the Lee trade Hendry acquired Michael Barrett from Billy Beane for Damian Miller – another win.
The Cubs didn’t give up anything too useful in their blockbuster trade of the summer of ’04, acquiring Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton. Even though Nomar didn’t help the Cubs, they came out ahead with Murton. Hendry has quietly gotten the better of Billy Beane and Theo Epstein.
The Sammy Sosa trade in February of ’05 didn’t bring the Cubs anything useful; Jerry Hairston Jr. never panned out. But that was a salary dump, and Hendry did the best he could with a player he simply had to trade away. A year later the Cubs couldn’t stand another minute with Corey Patterson, and he became an Oriole too. That one made Hendry look foolish. A third trade of the same variety was made in May of ’05, when Hendry sent the much-maligned LaTroy Hawkins to the Giants for Jerome Williams and David Aardsma. That was his only "forced" type trade that resulted in useful players.
Hendry waited a while to find a replacement for the injured Lee in ’06, eventually settling on a league average Phil Nevin from Texas. The Cubs soon became sellers that year, and the best Hendry could do for Greg Maddux was Cesar Izturis. He’s generally much better as a buyer than a seller, except for the Pierre deal.
Hendry’s favorite trading partners are Theo Epstein and Dave Littlefield; he’s made four deals with each. He also enjoys dealing with the Orioles’ braintrust, Larry Beinfest, Dave Dombrowski, Doug Melvin, and Dan O’Dowd. His one and only crosstown trade came this winter with the Neal Cotts–David Aardsma deal; that one’s too early to call. Click here to Download chicago_cubs_hendry.xls – Hendry’s entire trading record in a spreadsheet.
While Hendry’s free agency record is questionable, he comes out as a strong trader upon review. Cubs fans should have confidence that he’ll add some helpful players in July and August if the team is in the race.