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The Reds’ Less Heralded Breakout Rookie

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The Reds are MLB’s most surprising first-place team heading into the All-Star Break. Cincinnati is nine games above .500 and a game clear of the Brewers in the NL Central. They’re 24-12 since the start of June, largely thanks to an influx of rookie talent.

Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain have gotten plenty of attention, while Andrew Abbott has quickly ascended to the role of staff ace with Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene injured. Their midseason promotions have deservedly come with plenty of fanfare. They’re not the only rookies in Cincinnati having quality seasons, though.

Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins alongside Christian Encarnacion-Strand for Tyler Mahle at last summer’s deadline, first reached the majors in September. While he struggled in that 28-game cameo, the Reds made clear Steer would get a chance to play regularly out of the gate. Cincinnati released Mike Moustakas in January and made Steer their Opening Day third baseman.

The 25-year-old wasn’t long for the hot corner. By the end of April, the Reds had kicked him across the diamond to first base. That put a lot of pressure on the former third-round pick to produce offensively. He’s done just that, finishing the year’s unofficial first half with a .277/.367/.477 batting line over 376 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has connected on 14 home runs, walked at an excellent 11.2% rate, and kept his strikeouts to a modest 18.9% clip.

Steer has demonstrated a well-rounded offensive profile. He rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. He’s making contact at an above-average rate. When he puts the bat on the ball, he tends to make solid contact. Just over 40% of Steer’s batted balls have been hit hard (an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater), a mark that’s a couple percentage points above league average.

Prospect evaluators have generally suggested Steer’s raw power potential is fringe-average. That’s atypical for a first baseman, but he’s shown just enough pop and a knack for getting the ball in the air. Steer hits a number of fly-balls, and while they’re not hit with overwhelming power — his 92.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly-balls is exactly league average — it has been sufficient. That’s particularly true at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park; Steer is slugging .497 with a .204 ISO at home and .461 with a .197 ISO on the road.

That production has been enough to solidify Steer as an everyday presence in David Bell’s lineup. That came mostly at first base in the early summer. He’s seen a little more left field time of late with Joey Votto now healthy. His initial third base position has essentially become De La Cruz’s domain.

Coincidentally, Steer’s excellent start has probably held off Encarnacion-Strand’s debut. The latter is mashing at a .321/.392/.620 clip with 20 homers in 65 games for Triple-A Louisville. He’s done nothing but rake since joining the professional ranks as a fourth-round pick in 2021. On many clubs, Encarnacion-Strand would already be in the majors.

There simply hasn’t been room in Cincinnati. The Reds aren’t going to call up the 23-year-old corner infielder to serve as a bench bat. Votto has been great since returning from the injured list. De La Cruz is entrenched at hot corner with McLain at shortstop. Steer’s presence in the first base/corner outfield/designated hitter mix means there aren’t many at-bats to go around, barring injury.

That’s a nice short-term “problem” to have. Encarnacion-Strand figures to get a crack before too long as injuries necessitate. From a broader perspective, the Mahle trade added a pair of promising infielders to the upper levels of the Cincinnati organization. It looks like a massive coup for the Reds.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, they got very little out of the deal. Injuries kept Mahle to just four starts down the stretch last season. He started five games this year before a May Tommy John surgery ended his season and likely his time as a Twin. The right-hander is headed to free agency and could look for a buy-low two-year deal to finish his rehab with an eye towards a late-2024 return and full ’25 season.

Cincinnati controls Steer through the 2028 campaign. He won’t reach arbitration until after the ’25 season. Encarnacion-Strand is controllable through at least 2029, depending on the time of his MLB promotion and whether he’s subsequently optioned back to the minors. Left-hander Steve Hajjar, the third piece in the Mahle trade, has already been flipped to the Guardians as one of two minor leaguers for outfielder Will Benson.

With Steer contributing at the big league level, the Mahle swap has already helped the Reds emerge as playoff contenders quicker than most had anticipated. They can take the opposite approach to this summer’s deadline, likely by acquiring pitching help.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Designate Michael Mariot For Assignment

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The Reds activated right-hander Ben Lively from the 15-day injured list this morning, per a club announcement. In a corresponding move, the club designated right-hander Michael Mariot for assignment. Lively is poised to start this afternoon’s game against the Brewers.

Mariot, 34, was selected to the Reds’ roster yesterday but will ultimately end his tenure with the club without making an appearance. Selected by the Royals in the eighth round of the 2010 draft, Mariot made his big league debut in 2014 and pitched in parts of three seasons with Kansas City and Philadelphia, with his last major league appearance occurring back in 2016 with the Phillies. Since then, Mariot has pitched primarily at the Triple-A level with five different organizations, though he’s also spent brief stints in foreign and independent leagues. Mariot owns a career 3.97 ERA at the Triple-A level in 245 games, but has been rather impressive this season with a 2.59 ERA in 24 1/3 innings with Cincinnati’s Triple-A affiliate in Louisville.

As for Lively, the 31-year-old righty has pitched to a 4.11 ERA (117 ERA+) in 46 innings of work with the Reds this season, with seven of his nine appearances coming has a member of the rotation. The 2023 campaign represents Lively’s first work in the majors since the 2019 season. From 2017-2019, Lively posted a 4.80 ERA (90 ERA+) and 5.03 FIP in 120 innings of work. Lively joins a Reds rotation that currently consists of lefties Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson alongside righties Graham Ashcraft and Luke Weaver. The club is currently without top young starters Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, both of whom are expected back sometime in August.

Reds Designate Henry Ramos, Select Michael Mariot

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The Reds announced that outfielder Henry Ramos has been designated for assignment, and that righty Tony Santillan has been optioned to Triple-A Louisville.  Both moves clear space on the 26-man and 40-man rosters for right-hander Michael Mariot, as the Reds have selected Mariot’s contract from Triple-A.

Ramos spent seven weeks on the injured list due to a hip strain, and has hit .242/.356/.306 over 73 plate appearances for Cincinnati and a scorching .318/.404/.568 in 152 PA at the Triple-A level.  The Reds’ increasingly crowded roster made it hard for Ramos to find consistent playing time, and so the team has opted to perhaps move on, or just to try and sneak Ramos through DFA waivers.  The 31-year-old’s big Triple-A numbers might attract the attention of another team interested in a waiver claim, or Ramos could control his future more directly by rejecting an outright assignment if he did clear waivers.  Because Ramos has been outrighted before in his career, he has the ability to turn down any future outright assignments and become a free agent.

Ramos was a fifth-round pick for the Red Sox back in the 2010 draft, and his long stay in the minors finally resulted in 18 MLB games with the Diamondbacks in 2021.  Before signing a minor league deal with the Reds last winter, Ramos’ career includes stints with the Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, and a brief stint in the KBO League in 2022.

Mariot knows a few things about the career of a journeyman player, as the 34-year-old is set to make his first appearance in the majors since 2016.  The righty posted a 5.98 ERA over 49 2/3 innings with the Royals and Phillies from 2014-16, and subsequently bounced around the minors to several different organizations (including a previous stint with Cincinnati in 2021).  This long path back to the Show also included stops in independent baseball, the Mexican League, and in the Chinese Professional Baseball League.

Beginning the season with the Cleburne Railroaders of the independent American Association of Professional Baseball, Mariot signed a minor league contract with the Reds last month and made a quick impression at Triple-A.  Over four starts and 24 1/3 inning in Louisville, Mariot had a 2.59 ERA and a tiny 4.2% walk rate with only one home run allowed, though his 14.6% strikeout rate is far below average.  It remains to be seen what Mariot’s role might be in Cincinnati, but with the Reds hurting for rotation depth, Mariot might get at least a spot start or perhaps some long relief work.

Reds Designate Ricky Karcher For Assignment

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The Reds announced Thursday that they’ve designated right-hander Ricky Karcher for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to right-hander Tony Santillan, who has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Righty Brett Kennedy was optioned to Triple-A Louisville to open a spot for Santillan on the active roster.

Karcher, 25, made his big league debut last month when he worked a scoreless inning out of the Cincinnati bullpen. The former 13th-round pick has struggled for the majority of the season in Triple-A Louisville, however, pitching to a dismal 7.18 ERA with more walks (44) than strikeouts (36) in 31 1/3 innings. He’s never had many problems missing bats, but command issues have plagued him throughout his career, evidenced by his 172 walks (and 225 strikeouts) in 174 1/3 total innings as a professional.

The Reds will have a week to trade Karcher or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. He’s in the first of three minor league option seasons and can reach triple digits with his heater, in addition to a slider that grades as an above-average offering, but his location issues are an obvious red flag for other clubs.

Santillan, 26, has yet to pitch in 2023 due to a pair of injuries. Lower back issues derailed his 2022 season, and he was eventually diagnosed with a stress fracture. While still rehabbing his back earlier this season, Santillan was shut down after incurring a knee strain.

In 2021, Santillan looked like an intriguing long-term piece in the bullpen, pitching 43 1/3 innings of 2.91 ERA ball with a 29.5% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate as a rookie. The previously mentioned back issues limited him to just 19 1/3 innings last year, however, and he was hit hard during that time. While Santillan saw his velocity tick up to an average of 96.3 mph, he was also torched for a 5.49 ERA with a greatly reduced 21.9% strikeout rate and even higher 12.5% walk rate. Santillan was a starter earlier in his minor league career, and the Reds are in need of rotation help, but he’s been working in short relief during his rehab assignment and figures to once again occupy a bullpen spot moving forward.

Reds Outright Alec Mills

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July 4: Per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Mills has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A.

July 2: Per a club announcement, the Reds have made a series of roster moves. Cincinnati has designated right-hander Alec Mills for assignment and optioned right-hander Eduardo Salazar to Triple-A. In corresponding moves, the club has recalled outfielder Stuart Fairchild to the majors and activated right-hander Derek Law from the 15-day injured list.

Mills debuted with the Royals back in 2016 but has spent most of his time in the big leagues with the Cubs to whom Kansas City traded him the following year. From 2018 to 2020, Mills served as a solid swingman for Chicago, posting a 3.87 ERA and 4.59 FIP in 116 1/3 innings of work highlighted by a no-hitter against the Brewers during the shortened 2020 season. Since then, however, Mills has struggled mightily at the big league level. In 136 2/3 innings of work in the 2021-22 seasons, Mills posted a brutal 5.66 ERA, 26% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, with a 4.95 FIP. Those numbers prompted the Cubs to outright Mills off the 40-man roster last November, a move that resulted in Mills entering free agency.

He went unsigned throughout the offseason before eventually landing with the Reds on a minor league deal back in May. He posted a 4.09 ERA in 11 innings with the club in the minors before being selected to the roster prior to yesterday’s game against the Padres. Mills entered the game in the seventh for what proved to be a disastrous performance as the righty allowed five runs (two earned) on four hits (including a home run), a walk and a wild pitch while hitting a batter and failing to record a strikeout. Going forward, the club will have seven days to trade, release, or pass Mills through waivers. If passed through waivers, the club can assign him outright to Triple-A, though since Mills has been previously outrighted in his career he could opt to reject that assignment and test free agency.

Salazar, 25, made his MLB debut with the Reds earlier this year. In 12 1/3 innings of work this season, the righty has struggled to an 8.06 ERA and 4.66 FIP. He’ll return to the minors, where he’s posted a 4.03 ERA in 22 1/3 innings split between the Double-A and Triple-A levels, to serve as bullpen depth going forward.

Fairchild, 27, slashed .237/.331/.404 in 184 plate appearances while chipping in eight stolen bases and covering all three outfield spots prior to his demotion late last month. He hit well during his brief stint in Louisville, slashing .240/.296/.680 with three home runs in just 27 plate appearances. Fairchild figures to slot back into the club’s outfield mix alongside TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Will Benson, and Nick Senzel going forward.

Law, 32, returns to the club after missing six weeks with an elbow sprain. Prior to his trip to the IL, Law was one of Cincinnati’s more effective relievers this season, with a 2.57 ERA in 21 innings of work. That performance is somewhat belied by a 5.09 FIP thanks to Law’s elevated 14.3% walk rate compared to a 22% strikeout rate. Still, Law seems likely to join the club’s late inning mix ahead of closer Alexis Diaz alongside the likes of Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims.

Reds To Select Brett Kennedy

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July 4: The Reds have now officially selected Kennedy’s contract, optioning outfielder Stuart Fairchild in a corresponding move.

July 3, 9:05pm: Cincinnati confirmed that Kennedy will get the start tomorrow morning against the Nationals (via Sheldon).

5:25pm: The Reds announced today that right-hander Brett Kennedy has been added to their taxi squad. Manager David Bell tells Mark Sheldon of MLB.com that Kennedy is likely to either start tomorrow’s game or enter after an opener. The righty isn’t currently on the club’s roster, meaning he will have to be selected prior to that game. They already have a vacancy on their 40-man roster but a corresponding move will be required to open a spot on the active roster.

Kennedy, 28, will be pitching in the big leagues for the first time since 2018. He made his major league debut with the Padres that year, making six starts with a 6.75 ERA in 26 2/3 innings. He began the 2019 season on the injured list due to a lat strain and ended up staying there all year, getting outrighted off the roster at season’s end. With the minor leagues being canceled by the pandemic in 2020, he wasn’t able to pitch in any official capacity. He then spent 2021 stuck in the minors and reached free agency at the conclusion of that campaign.

Kennedy began both 2022 and 2023 with the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League. Last year, he made six starts as a Duck with a 3.03 ERA before his contract was selected by the Red Sox. He then posted a 3.94 ERA in 75 1/3 Double-A innings but never got the call to the big leagues. He returned to the Ducks this year and had a 3.09 ERA through three starts before the Reds purchased his contract.

Since joining the Reds organization, he’s made eight Triple-A starts and thrown 43 2/3 innings. He has a 3.71 ERA in those, striking out 19.8% of batters faced while walking 6.4% of them and getting grounders on 39.6% of balls in play.

There’s been much uncertainty in the rotation in Cincinnati of late, with injuries taking a significant toll on the staff. Vladimir Gutierrez and Justin Dunn have each been on the IL all season so far. Nick Lodolo and Connor Overton each landed there in May with Hunter Greene and Ben Lively joining them in June.

Graham Ashcraft recently returned from his own IL stint but has an ERA of 6.66 on the year. Each of Brandon Williamson, Luke Weaver and Levi Stoudt has an ERA above 5.55. Andrew Abbott has a 1.21 ERA but some regression will have to be expected since he won’t be able to maintain a 100% strand rate or .190 batting average on balls in play. Their starters have collective 5.72 ERA on the year, better than just the Athletics and Rockies.

Those challenges will push the club to give Kennedy a try, his first major league action in five years. He has a full slate of options and between one and two years of service time, which could allow the club to keep him as a depth option for the foreseeable future, as long as he continues to hang onto a 40-man roster spot.

Reds Select Alec Mills, Outright Jake Wong

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TODAY: Wong was outrighted to Triple-A Louisville after clearing waivers.

JUNE 27: The Reds announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Alec Mills, with fellow righty Jake Wong designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Mills, 31, spent 2018 to 2022 with the Cubs. He once seemed like he had a shot at establishing himself as a solid back-end starter. In 2020, he made 11 starts with a 4.48 ERA and even tossed a no-hitter that year. Unfortunately, he dealt with back issues in the next two years, leading to a 5.66 combined ERA in 2021 and 2022 before undergoing back surgery as last year’s campaign was winding down.

He was outrighted by the Cubs in November and became a free agent. He signed with the Reds in the middle of May and has since tossed 11 innings over four appearances with a 4.09 ERA on the year thus far. He’s struck out just 11.1% of opponents but walked only 6.7%.

The Reds have been stretched in the pitching department in recent days, leading to a daily scramble for fresh arms. They had Thursday off last week but then allowed at least seven runs in each of their four games from Friday to Monday. Their starting pitcher wasn’t able to go longer than four innings in any of them, leading to heavy usage of the bullpen. They have another off-day this Thursday but still have two more games to get through, prompting them to bring up Mills as a potential multi-inning option.

As for Wong, he was the club’s fresh arm just yesterday. He was able to make his major league debut in last night’s contest, tossing three innings while allowing three earned runs on six hits and three walks. Prior to getting called up, he tossed 34 1/3 innings in the minors with a 7.60 ERA. The Reds will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers.

NL Central Notes: Lodolo, Lively, Holderman

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Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo got some good news, per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The southpaw has been in a walking boot due to a tibia stress reaction in his left leg but the boot is now off and he’s been cleared to ramp up.

That’s not to say that he’s close to a return, as Goldsmith says Lodolo is on a similar timeline to righty Hunter Greene, who isn’t expected back until August. But it’s at least a good sign that things are progressing.

The Reds have surged to the top of the National League Central, currently tied with the Brewers at 43-38. But that’s mostly been fueled by their offense and in spite of a rickety rotation. Lodolo and Greene are two of six starters currently on the injured list, which has obviously had a negative effect on the results. The Reds’ starters have a collective 5.91 ERA this year, better than just the Athletics and Rockies.

Lodolo struggled to a 6.29 ERA this year before landing on the IL but had a much stronger 3.66 mark in his debut last year. Getting him and Greene healthy could give the club a huge boost for the stretch run as they try to take advantage of their surprising return to contention.

Some other notes from around the division…

  • Sticking with the Reds, their rotation could get another reinforcement, even earlier than the returns of Lodolo and Greene. Goldsmith relays that right-hander Ben Lively could be back before the All-Star break to make a start. The right-hander returned to the majors this year after a few years in Korea and has been doing well. He posted a 4.11 ERA through 46 innings before landing on the IL due to a right pectoral muscle strain. He struck out 23.1% of opponents against a 6.7% walk rate while getting grounders at a 38.8% clip. The All-Star break is just over a week away, so it seems he’ll be able to come back shortly and get at least one more outing under his belt prior to the layoff. The club’s rotation currently consists of Graham Ashcraft, Levi Stoudt, Brandon Williamson, Andrew Abbott and Luke Weaver but Abbott is the only one out of those with an ERA below 5.82.
  • The Pirates got an important arm back today, with right-hander Colin Holderman reinstated from the injured list. He missed the past two weeks with right wrist inflammation. Fellow righty Cody Bolton was optioned in a corresponding move. Holderman has emerged as a key piece of the club’s bullpen, posting a 4.01 ERA over 26 appearances this year. He’s struck out 25.7% of hitters while walking just 6.4% of them and getting grounders at a 48.6% clip. He’s lived up to his name by securing 12 holds and one save, indicating he’s moved up into higher leverage work. The Bucs have alternated hot and cold all year and are currently riding a three-game win streak to get their record to 38-42. Despite that subpar mark, they’re only 4.5 games off the lead with no one running away with the division. Each game will take on magnified importance with the trade deadline now just a month away and having Holderman back is a nice little boost for Pittsburgh.

Hunter Greene Likely Out Into August

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The Reds’ surge toward to the top of the NL Central has been one of the top storylines in Major League Baseball this month, and the fact that they’ve done so with negligible contribution from their starting rotation is a remarkable testament to the core group of position players in Cincinnati. Reds fans hoping for a swift return from right-hander Hunter Greene, placed on the injured list last week due to discomfort in his right hip, will have to hope others can pick up the slack on the starting staff for quite some time, however. General manager Nick Krall told the team’s beat last night that Greene is headed to Arizona for a strengthening program and will need to follow that with a throwing program of four to six weeks in length (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). That makes a return sometime in August a best-case scenario.

Greene, 23, leads the Reds with 73 1/3 innings pitched and has been their most consistent starter throughout the 2023 season. He’s made strides over his 2022 rookie season, largely by scaling back the number of home runs he’s allowed (1.72 HR/9 in 2022, 1.10 in 2023). Greene’s 31.4% strikeout rate is right in line with last year’s excellent 30.9% mark, and while his 9.7% walk rate remains north of the league average, his punchouts have helped him to offset that below-average command. Of the 82 pitchers in MLB this year with at least 70 innings, only three — Spencer Strider, Shohei Ohtani, Kevin Gausman — have a higher strikeout rate than Greene. Only five — Strider, Shane McClanahan, Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez and Blake Snell — have posted higher swinging-strike rate’s than Greene’s 14.3%.

Suffice it to say, a prolonged absence from Greene isn’t what an already dismal Reds’ rotation needed. Even with Greene’s solid production leading the group, Cincinnati starters rank 28th in the Majors with a 5.88 ERA, leading only the Rockies and A’s in that regard. The Reds’ rotation has MLB’s eighth-highest walk rate (8.8%) and has allowed home runs at the third-highest clip of any starting staff in the game (1.68 HR/9).

Greene and fellow sophomore starter and former top prospect Nick Lodolo, who’s dealing with a stress reaction in his tibia, will now be sidelined beyond the Aug. 1 trade deadline. That leaves Cincinnati with a patchwork rotation currently led by top prospect Andrew Abbott, who’s posted a pristine 1.21 ERA through his first five turns on a big league mound.

The rest of the group has struggled immensely this year. Righty Graham Ashcraft impressed early with a new cutter and improved movement on his slider, but he’s been torched for 47 runs in his past 33 innings. Veteran Luke Weaver has made 12 starts, allowing at least four runs in eight of them and at least three runs in ten of them; he’s averaging five innings per appearance and sitting on a 6.86 ERA. Prospects Brandon Williamson (5.82 ERA in 38 2/3 innings) and Levi Stoudt (nine runs in seven innings) have both debuted this year despite shaky numbers in the upper minors. Neither has found much success yet, though Stoudt’s sample is obviously quite limited.

Depth options like journeyman Ben Lively and righty Connor Overton are both on the injured list as well, the latter after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Reds signed former Cubs righty Alec Mills to a minor league deal last month, and he’s already been selected to the big league roster despite pitching just 11 minor league innings on the season. The 31-year-old Mills pitched to a 5.66 ERA in 136 2/3 innings for Chicago in 2021-22.

Given the context of their current rotation, it’s hardly a surprise that Krall has already publicly acknowledged a desire to add pitching via the summer trade market. It’s similarly unsurprising, however, that Krall indicated within last night’s comments that the asking prices on the nascent trade market are beyond the team’s comfort zone. “Right now the conversations are in places that we are not – where we don’t want to go,” said Krall.

Trades of major significance this time of year are rare, though certainly not unprecedented. But, with the expansion of the playoff field to a dozen teams, there are very few clubs that are decidedly out of the playoff picture. Several of the teams who fit that bill — A’s, Rockies, Royals — are in their current predicament in large part due to a lack of starting pitching. Today’s brand of MLB front office tends to wait until closer to any and all deadlines — trade deadline, non-tender deadline, Rule 5 protection deadline — before making decisions, preferring to gather as much information as possible. Jumping the market this early would likely come at a steep cost — one that Krall and his group have thus far deemed prohibitive.

Reds Outright Randy Wynne

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Reds right-hander Randy Wynne went unclaimed on outright waivers and has been assigned to Triple-A Louisville, per a club announcement. He’ll remain with the organization but no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster.

Wynne, 30, made his big league debut earlier this month, tossing 2 1/3 innings and allowing a run on three hits and a walk. He’d been summoned from Louisville when a taxed and injury-riddled Cincinnati pitching staff needed a fresh arm, and Wynne found himself removed from the 40-man just one day after his debut in order for the Reds to get another fresh arm in the bullpen (righty Jake Wong, who’s now also been designated for assignment).

An undrafted free agent who spent three years in independent ball before the Reds signed him out of the Frontier League, Wynne is currently in his second season at the Triple-A level. He’s been tagged for a 5.12 ERA in 31 2/3 frames with Louisville this season and posted a 4.75 ERA in 133 2/3 innings there during the 2022 season. Wynne doesn’t throw particularly hard (89.4 mph average on his sinker) or miss many bats, but he’s displayed keen command of the strike zone throughout his time in pro ball, walking just 3.9% of his opponents between the minors and his brief big league tenure.

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