Mariners Acquire Jason Davis
The Mariners acquired 27 year-old pitcher Jason Davis today from the Indians for a player to be named later. As I mentioned in a previous post, Davis is a healthy, cheap pitcher with good control and groundball tendencies. Unless something valuable was given up, this looks like a nice little move for Bill Bavasi.
I have to be honest, I was hoping to see Davis end up with an NL team short on starting pitching (I picked him up in my AL-only league based on this speculation). He wants to return to starting, but that would probably only work in the weaker league. For the Ms, Davis will settle into the bullpen and probably pitch around the sixth inning.
Click here to read U.S.S. Mariner’s take on the acquisition.
Indians To Trade Jason Davis
27 year-old Indians reliever Jason Davis was designated for assignment on Monday, so the clock is ticking for Mark Shapiro to trade him. As a healthy, cheap pitcher with good control, Davis will draw plenty of interest.
Davis would like to return to starting after spending all of 2006 as a reliever. Like a lot of pitchers, Davis could really blossom in the National League. He gets plenty of groundballs and can keep his walk rate under 3 per nine.
Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer speculates that the Tigers, Blue Jays, Royals, Phillies, Giants, Reds, Braves, and Nationals would all make sense. His speculation considers Davis a reliever, so you can really open it up to most teams in baseball if you think of him as a starter. The Marlins, Braves, and Astros all have a need for starting pitching help. If I’m Davis’s agent, I’m campaigning for him to join Atlanta and try to work his way into a rotation spot. Of course, for pure opportunity you can’t beat the Nationals. Somehow, though, I have a feeling that Omar Minaya will snag him just for depth.
Tim Brown’s Latest
I hadn’t really noticed the MLB Experts Blog from Tim Brown and Jeff Passan until recently. Yahoo’s main baseball guys have some quality rumors, and I’ve been missing out. Let’s catch up by digging through some recent posts:
- Seems like mostly educated speculation, but Brown named Shawn Green as a player the Angels might be able to acquire to fill the void with Howie Kendrick out. However, Lastings Milledge will miss most of May, so that Green may no longer be available.
- The Tigers, worried about their fourth and fifth starters, are already on the lookout for starting pitching help.
- The Indians are looking to acquire a closer, though I think they have some decent internal options. The Tribe isn’t looking to spend big bucks so it would have to be a bargain type guy.
- If Jeff Weaver continues to bomb, could the Mariners trade him back to St. Louis?
Hafner Extension Will Wait
While Indians GM Mark Shapiro thinks he still might be able to retain Travis Hafner and C.C. Sabathia despite the Jake Westbrook extension, he will hold off on contract negotiations with Hafner until after the season. Hafner and Sabathia are set to reach free agency after the 2008 season.
Hafner and the Indians have some work done that could eventually form the basis of an extension. Shapiro’s comment on retaining his two big free agents makes sense: he’ll do it if the money is there. A big factor will be whether the Tribe reaches the playoffs this year. Postseason revenue could help Shapiro sign both players before the ’08 season begins. Baseball Prospectus says the Indians have a 61% chance of making the playoffs. They see 93-94 wins for Cleveland.
It’s funny how quickly things change – David Ortiz‘s contract, signed one year ago, would seem to be a reasonable benchmark for Hafner. Papi got four years and $52MM with a $12.5MM club option for 2011. At this point Hafner has to be thinking at least $14MM annually and five years.
Westbrook Gets Three-Year Extension
According to MLB.com, the Indians have extended starter Jake Westbrook through the 2010 season, with no option years.
PECOTA would only offer about $25MM to the groundballer, but Baseball Digest Daily reports the amount as $33MM. That’s on par with Javier Vazquez‘s recent extension. The deal is clearly a hometown discount; Cleveland journalists had speculated that he’d get at least four years and $12MM annually.
That still leaves C.C. Sabathia and Travis Hafner as the team’s major upcoming free agents. That’s not until after the 2008 season though. It has been said that Carlos Zambrano‘s contract could serve as a framework for Sabathia’s. Assuming the Cubs sign Z at five years, $80MM, the Tribe should go for a similar deal with C.C. This year might be his best, so the time is now. Personally, I don’t think the below-market Westbrook deal kills the C.C. possibility.
On Pronk, I think the Indians can hold off. As awesome as he is, that’s a $100MM+ contract and at least a five year commitment. If the team makes the playoffs this year and/or in 2008, maybe that would create some extra revenue to put towards Hafner.
Ringolsby On Lidge, Otsuka, And More
Esteemed Denver Post writer Tracy Ringolsby drops a few trade rumors on us in this morning’s column.
- Ringolsby writes that the Padres have some rainy-day money saved up to be used specifically for one of three players, if they are available and the team is contending. The players are future free agents Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter. I’m not sure how Mike Cameron would feel about that, and whether it would affect his contract negotiations. Hopefully he wouldn’t mind moving to a corner.
- Should Eric Gagne prove himself healthy and reliable (a long shot), the Red Sox, Indians, and Marlins have interest in acquiring Akinori Otsuka. In my opinion the Phillies might want in on that too. The Mets and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in the past. I’m a bit skeptical that the Marlins would take on another $3MM reliever after the Jorge Julio debacle.
- The same three teams Ringolsby mentioned for Otsuka would have interest in Brad Lidge if available. Also, some major connections between Lidge and the Rockies are described. And Buster Olney mentions the Blue Jays as another possibility in his blog today.
- Ringolsby quotes Joe Nathan as saying his agents have had positive initial talks with the Twins. Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI.com had a source indicating that talks with Nathan had slowed.
2007 Cleveland Indians
Next up, the Tribe.
Mark Shapiro’s contract obligations:
C – Victor Martinez – $3MM
C – Kelly Shoppach – $0.38MM
1B – Casey Blake – $3.75MM + incentives
2B – Josh Barfield – $0.38MM
SS – Jhonny Peralta – $0.75MM + incentives
3B – Andy Marte – $0.38MM
IF – Hector Luna – $0.4083MM
IF – Ryan Garko – $0.3831MM
LF – David Dellucci – $3.75MM
CF – Grady Sizemore – $0.75MM
RF – Trot Nixon – $3MM + incentives
OF – Jason Michaels – $2MM + incentives
DH – Travis Hafner – $3.75MM + incentives
SP – C.C. Sabathia – $8.75MM + incentives
SP – Paul Byrd – $7MM
SP – Jake Westbrook – $6.1MM
SP – Cliff Lee – $2.75MM
SP – Jeremy Sowers – $0.3848MM
RP – Joe Borowski – $4MM + incentives
RP – Roberto Hernandez – $3.3MM
RP – Aaron Fultz – $1.5MM + incentives
RP – Rafael Betancourt – $0.84MM
RP – Jason Davis – $0.67MM + incentives
RP – Matt Miller – $0.56MM
RP – Fernando Cabrera – $0.3918MM
Minors:
RP – Tom Mastny – $0.38MM
RP – Tony Sipp – $0.38MM
SP – Adam Miller – $0.38MM
RF – Shin-Soo Choo – $0.3831MM
It’s roughly $60MM committed; Shapiro has operated carefully to assemble such an affordable contender. He seemingly has room to add some players in the summer, especially if he discards some of Byrd’s salary.
Will the offense be second best in the AL again? I believe so. Their stars, Sizemore, Hafner, and Martinez, should maintain their levels. Hafner could be even better in sum if he can top 130 games played. Looking at some revamped positions: the Tribe could take a small step back at first base, and steps forward at the other three infield positions (youth is served and Aaron Boone is gone). With Dellucci getting most of the PT in left, they’ll blow past last year’s .258/.311/.393 from that corner. RF should hold steady or improve. It would be tough to spar with the Yankees for the game’s best offense but it’s not unfathomable.
Defensively the team looks OK if not spectacular. Improvement from Peralta would go a long way.
The rotation looks borderline top five to me. The Tribe had a collective 4.31 starter ERA last year, good for third best. This year, the lack of Jason Johnson plus some Jeremy Sowers regression should mostly balance out. Potential gains come in the form of 32 starts from Sabathia (a Cy Young candidate) and replacement of Paul Byrd with Adam Miller (4.64 ERA according to PECOTA) or Fausto Carmona (4.04 ERA).
The bullpen is the clear question mark, and Borowski/Hernandez/Fultz may not help at all despite the money spent. Two of the team’s seven best relievers may start the year in Triple A in Sipp and Mastny. If Shapiro is not afraid to dump a guy like Hernandez for Sipp if performance calls for it, the Indians can improve upon last year’s 4.66 relief ERA. Betancourt and Cabrera could be a nasty pair if things come together. It might make sense to overpay for a reliever with a young outfielder, if none of the above work out.
I should add that the team has great depth; they’ll be forced to leave Major League quality players in Triple A to start the season. The Indians look like a World Series contender to me, though wins could be sacrificed to play certain veterans over kids.
A Little Help: Indians
More rumors, news, and analysis is always a good thing. Today I’m looking for someone to represent the Cleveland Indians.
What am I looking for in this person?
- Solid writing skills and a style that fits with MLBTradeRumors. Basically, I’ll know it when I see it. I’m looking for the same type of analysis you see here every day.
- Someone who can post up-to-the-minute Indians rumors as they surface. I want a person who follows the Tribe religiously and will have every source (traditional newspapers, high quality blogs, radio) covered. It would make sense to have all the pertinent websites on an RSS reader. You should be near a computer most times and able to hop on and write a post if something happens.
- While this person is probably an Indians fan, objective analysis is preferred. Additionally it would be nice to provide the local vibe/sentiment that people might otherwise not know about. That might sound contradictory but I don’t think it is.
- The benefit to you: a decent-sized audience and a chance to do a little sportswriting. It could be a nice resume-builder and I would be happy to serve as a reference for you. And I will give you some insight on how I do what I do, for what that’s worth.
- Build your audience: within reason, you can link to your own blog or website and gain some new readers.
- Email me at mlbtraderumors@gmail.com if this interests you and explain why you’re the best candidate. I’ll choose one person and unfortunately won’t be able to reply to all. A sample post of a rumor/signing (whether fake or true) might help make your case. Note: long-winded posts are not my style! Brevity is a plus – I like 3-4 paragraph posts.
NOTE: Please don’t contact me about doing this for other teams. I just want an Indians person at the moment.
Tribe Has Decisions To Make
Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer has a well thought out column up today regarding the possible market value of Jake Westbrook, Travis Hafner, and C.C. Sabathia. Westbrook would hit free agency after this season; the other two after ’08.
His take on Westbrook: four or five years at $12.5MM annually. Westbrook’s agent has yet to speak with Mark Shapiro. Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon-Journal weighs in at five years and $15MM annually.
You can bet Travis Hafner wouldn’t be underrated on the open market, even as a DH. Pronk could hit 50 HR this year. Hoynes thinks it would require five or six years at $12-17MM annually for him. I think he would get at least $15MM for the AAV. Teams that might need a DH in 2009: Baltimore, Toronto, L.A., Seattle, and Texas (where it all began). Of the three, Hafner probably makes the least sense for Cleveland to sign long-term. Ocker sees him getting 100/6.
Sabathia is another guy whose best season could be 2007. Carlos Zambrano‘s deal, whether reached now or after the ’07 season, could serve as a framework. Sure, Sabathia is heavy, but he’s also young and very good. I’m thinking five years, $75MM. Ocker counters with $135MM over seven seasons.
Alex Rodriguez And The Cubs
UPDATE: In a related story, Jon Heyman of SI.com lists a slew of teams that inquired about Rodriguez’s availability this winter: the Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, Cubs, Giants, Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Indians. Heyman says the White Sox and Dodgers were the most persistent. None of the offers went anywhere given Rodriguez’s unwillingness to waive his no-trade clause.
Bob Raissman of the New York Daily News has an imposing mustache as well as some insight into Alex Rodriguez‘s next possible destination. The article involves Lou Piniella in his underwear as well as a lot of crying and one tender kiss. I found it touching.
Anyway, Raissman believes, based on an upcoming HBO interview with Rodriguez, that a reunion with Lou Piniella in Chicago would be a dream come true for him. Rodriguez responded to the idea thusly:
"He’s on a different team in a different league. My memories of Lou are in the present and the past, not the future."
This is not the first time Rodriguez has been connected to the Cubs. Last July, later confirmed by other sources, Bleed Cubbie Blue broke news of the team’s trading deadline interest.
I would imagine that Rodriguez would not play shortstop for the Cubs for the duration of his 5+ year contract. More likely to me: A-Rod plays shortstop for three seasons, through 2010. At that point, Derrek Lee‘s contract will be up and Aramis Ramirez might be ready to shift to first base. Ramirez is a Cub through 2011 or 2012.
Tim’s take – Chance of Alex Rodriguez signing with the Cubs in the ’07-’08 offseason: 15%.