Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up. A summary appears below.
- Rosenthal thinks the Tigers are unlikely to acquire Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka, perhaps preferring to look at internal options. That’s a shame, as I think they really need to add someone.
- The White Sox won’t be granting a 72 hour negotiating window if they trade Mark Buehrle. Strictly a rental. That could limit the market for him, but Kenny Williams will come up with at least one quality prospect.
- The Dodgers don’t seem likely to trade for Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye, but could go after Mark Teixeira. Dye seems most likely to end up in the NL West somehow, but only if he is healthy and hitting.
- Possible Dontrelle Willis suitors: the Rockies or Diamondbacks. They’ve got the young trading chips, and the need in the present day. The Rox could offer Aaron Cook plus prospects, and the D’Backs could try Livan Hernandez and youngsters. If the D’Backs dare offer up Justin Upton, the Marlins would jump. Of course, D-Train needs to be healthy and the Marlins would need to fall out of contention.
- Barry Bonds‘s agent really doesn’t see a trade happening. Well, no one does, but it’s fun to speculate. Rosenthal thinks only the Yankees could accomodate him.
- Aside from the Pirates and Padres, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers could go after Milton Bradley.
- Rosenthal has a GM source who thinks the Reds could wait until this winter, exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for ’08, and then trade him. Dunn, however, would gain no-trade protection until June 15, 2008 and then be able to block 10 teams thereafter.
- Troy Glaus isn’t going anywhere. Even if the Jays wanted to trade him, his contract is prohibitive.
- The Indians or Rockies could trade for Octavio Dotel for bullpen depth. Dotel is developing into a fine trading chip for Dayton Moore, just as planned. The Tribe has had interest in Dotel in past offseasons.
Hafner Distracted By Contract Situation?
Jim Ingraham of The Morning Journal out of Cleveland offers some thoughts on Travis Hafner‘s season-long slump. Pronk is hitting .257/.401/.432 on the season. He’s walking more than ever, but the .432 SLG is a far cry from his usual .600 mark.
Ingraham believes Hafner has been distracted this year, with his contract situation weighing on his mind. According to Ingraham’s sources, Hafner was either offered 5/70 or 4/60 from the Indians in the early weeks of the season. Was he offended by the offer?
Even as a DH, Hafner should be worth around $18-19MM a year over the next few seasons (according to Baseball Prospectus). Only in 2010 is he expected to drop into the $13MM range. So Hafner has a right to expect significantly more than $14-15MM annually, even if he’s offense-only. The Tribe may be using David Ortiz’s 4/52 contract as a benchmark, but that was signed before the 2006 season.
According to BP, Hafner’s top comparable is Willie McCovey. Decline definitely set in for McCovey around his age 33 season. Boog Powell is also high on the list; he also dropped off in his early 30s. Fred McGriff, Carlos Delgado, Mo Vaughn…this is why the Indians are reluctant to pay top dollar long-term for a player of Hafner’s type.
Hafner is incredibly underpaid at $3.75MM this season and $4.75MM in 2008. He signed the deal in March of 2005, probably looking to set himself up for life with only one full season in the books. You can’t blame him for signing, but it has to feel a little unfair right now. Unfortunately the best business decision for the Tribe might be to just let him play out his contract.
Gagne’s List
We know Rangers closer Eric Gagne has some kind of no-trade protection in his contract, but further details were unknown. Jon Heyman of SI.com recently clarified a bit.
Apparently Gagne has given the Rangers a list of 12 teams he can be traded to. Heyman says that almost all of those allowable 12 are not in contention or would have no motivation to trade for him. Heyman also believes that the Tigers, Indians, and Phillies are not among the 12 allowable teams. So if one of those wants Gagne, they’ll need his approval and his salary will escalate.
Meanwhile, Bill Madden of the New York Daily News speculates that Lou Piniella might urge Jim Hendry to acquire Gagne to solidify the Cubs’ bullpen.
Rosenthal’s Latest
The authority on all trade rumors, Ken Rosenthal has spoken. Let’s review.
- As we have heard before, the Dodgers like Adam Dunn. We’ve also discussed the fact that there’s not a clear place to put him. Whether you go with first base or left field, a veteran must move. The Padres like Dunn as well but talks have yet to occur. The Angels may have liked him in the past but they don’t seem likely at this point. And the Twins? They just won’t break the bank for him unfortunately.
- With Michael Barrett having issues with 40% of the Cubs’ rotation, the Cubs could look to trade him. Even though he’s a top offensive catcher, his impending free agency might prevent any strong return. Plus, the Cubs would have to go with a Henry Blanco/Koyie Hill tandem. A more likely scenario is that the Cubs will let Barrett walk after the season.
- Finally some clarity on Eric Gagne‘s limited no-trade protection. Rosenthal reveals that he can veto trades to 12 teams. The Phillies and Indians are again mentioned as suitors. Rosenthal thinks Mark Teixeira could generate a lot of talk but no action at the trading deadline. Kind of like Alfonso Soriano or A.J. Burnett before him.
- The asking price for Brad Lidge, supposedly: a premium young catcher and promising young pitcher. Lidge will probably earn $8MM next year before hitting free agency. The Astros should be happy with a young catcher or a young pitcher, not both. I’d mention Salty here but I think he is worth much more than Lidge. Rosenthal says the Astros could move another bullpen arm like Wheeler or Qualls to get the bat they need.
- Could the Devil Rays simply retain Al Reyes and Carlos Pena? Both players could be valuable contributors to the 2008 club. I like the idea of keeping Reyes around for next year, but I think Pena has peaked.
- Noah Lowry would get the attention of the Braves or Cardinals, but the Giants are unlikely to move him.
- The Phils are likely to pass on Tomo Ohka despite their need for pitching.
Indians Interested In Eric Gagne
According to Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon Journal, Mark Shapiro and the Indians are likely to make a move to acquire a reliever sometime this summer. Patience with guys like Roberto Hernandez (5.87 ERA) and Fernando Cabrera (5.40 ERA) is wearing thin.
Ocker says the Indians are interested in Rangers closer Eric Gagne. Gagne has been dominant in his 15 innings, allowing just a single run. His control has been a little off, but it’s a small sample yet. Gagne has been handled carefully, spending some time on the DL and only pitching back-to-back days twice. If the Rangers can keep him healthy for another month or so, some team is going to ignore the health risk and give them a decent player for him. Gagne does have "no-trade protection," whatever that means.
Other candidates named for the Tribe include David Riske, Tom Martin, Shawn Chacon, Jason Isringhausen, Al Reyes, and Akinori Otsuka. The latter three are the potential difference-makers. Ocker says Adam Miller isn’t going anywhere, but few other prospects will be deemed untouchable. I still doubt any team could pry Jeremy Sowers loose for a reliever. I’m no prospect guru, but I imagine guys like Brian Barton and Chuck Lofgren (both at Double A) could be attractive trading chips. Outfielders Franklin Gutierrez and Shin-Soo Choo could be available also.
Cardinal Trade Rumor Roundup
My apologies for posting some rumors from a few days ago; I’m still catching up. Today’s let’s look at some recent Cardinals trade rumors.
The first question is whether the team should conduct some form of a fire sale. Right now, they’re still mired in the NL Central race at 6.5 games out. But if the team does spiral out of contention by July 31st, it might make sense to trade Jason Isringhausen. He’s probably their best trading chip. Cards beat writer Joe Strauss mentions the Braves, Indians, and Cubs as teams that would have interest in the 34 year-old closer. After Izzy was nearly left for dead/retired in ’06, he’s bounced back with 13 saves in the season’s first two months. He makes $8.75MM this year with an $8MM club option for ’08. That includes a $1.25MM buyout.
The Isringhausen trade option represents the worst case scenario. Let’s consider what the Cardinals might do to improve in the short term. Catcher Yadier Molina should be sidelined for at least a month with a broken wrist. One option is Royals catcher Jason LaRue, who’s owed about $1.65MM on the season by KC. The one concern is that LaRue is 7 for 57 on the season, and didn’t hit at all last year. At 33, he may have to permanently join the Brotherhood of Backup Catchers, if he hasn’t already. Yadier’s brother Jose may be an option as well.
Also on the radar: comeback kid Troy Percival. The Cards will watch him throw, if they haven’t already. St. Louis joins roughly a half-dozen teams in the Percival pursuit. More than that, if you add the Giants and A’s to the mix.
The Percival Chase
My apologies to the loyal readers hoping for more posts this weekend – my wife and I are painting the condo. Good times.
For those keeping score at home, here’s a summary of Troy Percival‘s suitors. He won’t be returning to the Angels, but plenty of other clubs want in.
Though interest hasn’t been confirmed, Devil Rays manager Joe Maddon thinks highly of Percival. The Indians are another club where only speculation exists. Let’s add the Cubs to that list; Phil Rogers notes the team’s interest in the 2004-05 offseason. Back then, the Cubs wisely decided to open the season with LaTroy Hawkins at closer given Joe Borowski‘s broken hand. OK, maybe not so wisely.
Last week, two teams publicly showed interest in the Tigers and Phillies. Now we know the Marlins are "closely monitoring" Percival as well. It wouldn’t be right to have a Marlin season go by without the club resurrecting a closer.
Speculated interest: Devil Rays, Indians, Cubs
Confirmed interest: Tigers, Phillies, Marlins
Not interested: Angels
Percival Possibilities
The Angels aren’t interested in reliever Troy Percival, but several other clubs will be in attendance when he works out for teams in a week or two.
The Tigers are publicly showing interest, as Percival left the club on good terms despite barely pitching for them. He was voted a playoff share last year and used the money to buy a suite for the players’ wives. With Joel Zumaya out for quite a while, the Tigers could use another arm at the back of the bullpen. Contrary to previous reports of 97 mph (subtract five mph from anything an agent says) Percival is topping out around 92 these days.
The Phillies also want in; they remain desperate for relief help. They’ll attend his workout. The Indians gave a "no comment" on the Percival topic, but I can’t see why they wouldn’t send someone to observe the workout. I also can’t see why Rafael Betancourt isn’t closing, but that’s my fantasy side talking.
Foulke To Attempt Comeback?
We here at MLBTR love to follow players on the comeback trail. Next on the list is 34 year-old reliever Keith Foulke. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe quotes Foulke’s agent saying that Foulke will have surgery to have bone chips removed from his elbow and will then consider returning to the game. Hat tip to RotoWorld on this one.
Foulke retired back in mid-February after feeling some elbow pain. He abandoned $5MM from the Indians, but could pitch for the Tribe after all.
Cafardo has some even more comeback nuggets for us in the same column – the agent for Hideo Nomo and Mac Suzuki says both hope to return to the bigs. Nomo hooked on with the White Sox Triple A club last year, but had elbow surgery in June. This wouldn’t exactly be a comeback as Nomo wanted to return all along. Suzuki returned to Japan for the 2003-04 seasons, and surfaced with the Iowa Cubs last year.
See where Nomo and Suzuki rank among the 28 Japanese players in MLB over the span of 1964-2006 by downloading a spreadsheet I created for this post.
Mets Acquire Second Baseman
According to Anthony DiComo at MLB.com, the Mets have acquired 27-year old minor league infielder Jake Gautreau from the Cleveland Indians for a PTBNL or cash.
Nothing very exciting here; it seems the Mets needed to fill out a middle-infield spot at AAA. Gautreau was the 14th pick overall in the 2001 Amateur Draft, a highly touted third baseman out of Tulane. In his minor league career, Gautreau has shown a dissapointing lack of patience; still, he has some power and would be passable as a major league second basemen.
However, the Mets already have two near-replacement-level players in Damion Easley and Ruben Gotay. I don’t think they have to worry about Gautreau nipping at their heels.
John Peterson writes for the baseball blog Blastings! Thrilledge.