2007 Cleveland Indians
The Tribe is next up in our 2007 team outlooks.
Mark Shapiro’s contract obligations:
C – Victor Martinez – $3MM
C – Kelly Shoppach – $0.327MM
1B – Ryan Garko – $0.33MM
2B –
SS – Jhonny Peralta – $0.75MM
3B – Andy Marte – $0.33MM
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff – $0.33MM
IF – Hector Luna – $0.34MM
IF – Joe Inglett – $0.33MM
LF – Jason Michaels – $1.75MM
CF – Grady Sizemore – $0.75MM
RF – Casey Blake – $3.75MM
OF – Shin-Soo Choo – $0.33MM
OF – Franklin Gutierrez – $0.33MM
DH – Travis Hafner – $3.75MM
SP – C.C. Sabathia – $8.75MM
SP – Paul Byrd – $7MM
SP – Jake Westbrook – $5.6MM
SP – Cliff Lee – $2.75MM
SP – Jeremy Sowers – $0.33MM
SP – Jeremy Guthrie – $0.625MM
RP – Rafael Betancourt – $0.3653MM
RP – Matt Miller – $0.3374MM
RP – Fernando Cabrera – $0.3308MM
RP – Fausto Carmona – $0.33MM
RP – Jason Davis – $0.33MM
RP – Tom Mastny – $0.33MM
RP – Brian Slocum – $0.33MM
I have the payroll at less than $50MM at this point, including raises. The Indians entered 2006 at $56MM. All we know about ’07 is to expect a significant payroll increase. That’s gotta mean at least 10%, so they should go past $60MM. $70MM would not be surprising at all, and that buys more than just a closer.
The Indians will go with Garko and Marte at the corners, at least unless some obviously better option presents itself. The average AL 1B hit .280/.352/.467 and the average AL 3B hit .269/.338/.442. Garko and Marte can approach this level next year. Given how far above average Hafner, Sizemore, and Martinez are for their positions, it still makes for a dangerous offense.
Shapiro will definitely acquire a second baseman, with Ron Belliard, Adam Kennedy, Mark DeRosa, Ray Durham, and Mark Loretta the top free agent options. Shapiro hopes to improve the infield defense as well as find a player to push Peralta a bit. The perfect solution: Craig Counsell. Counsell is one of the best defensive 2Bs in the game and plays a decent shortstop.
To continue with Jason Michaels as the everyday LF would be a certain concession of below average offense. Choo and Gutierrez could push him. Given all the purported free cash, I’m surprised the Indians haven’t made noise about acquiring a decent-hitting veteran LF. The coolest answer would be Barry Bonds, but Frank Catalanotto, David Dellucci, and Moises Alou would all represent improvement. If Pronk could play 1B for 30 games in 2007, that’d go a long way toward resting other fragile players.
The rotation is set, with Carmona probably acting as the sixth man. Carmona finished strong in three starts, and there’s been speculation of trading Byrd. Byrd isn’t exactly coveted, so hopefully that’d be a situation where the money saved goes toward a marquee signing.
The Indians won’t look internally for a closer. Free agent options are slim though: Joe Borowski, Danys Baez, Dustin Hermanson, Octavio Dotel, Keith Foulke, Miguel Batista, David Weathers, and Eric Gagne have experience. It might make sense to try to pry Brad Lidge away from the Astros. Mike Gonzalez would be another fine trade option. What’s Ugueth Urbina up to these days? Oh, right. When are they going to hold that trial, anyway?
The Indians are a team with $10-20MM to spend and no good way to spend it. Given that he’s got a fine squad already, perhaps Shapiro will just add his second baseman and closer and save some money for a midseason deal.
Minor Trades and Rumors
The Cubs unloaded Neifi Perez on the Tigers today, and it was no surprise Neifi got through waivers. What team would want to be on the hook for $2.5MM for him next year? Ditching Neifi at this point at least partially rights the wrong of signing him to an extension in the first place for Jim Hendry. The Cubs’ "everything man" will be making outs atop of Detroit’s lineup now. Even more impressive is that Hendry snagged a 22 year-old catching prospect, Chris Robinson, in the deal.
The Mets added righty reliever Guillermo Mota today. Along with Oliver Perez, this is another project with plenty of upside. Mota was one of the game’s top setup men a few years ago.
Tom Glavine‘s got a possible blood clot, which could mean season or career-ending surgery. At least his life is not in danger. The news first appeared on an ESPN message board from a man said to be Glavine’s brother-in-law. Back when Glavine appeared healthy, the same source indicated that the southpaw would finish his career with the Braves, at any salary.
Reggie Sanders may have cleared waivers. Who wants a 38 year-old right fielder with a .248/.304/.424 line? Don’t forget the $5MM he’s owed next year.
From Yankees announcer Jim Kaat: the Rangers may be talking to the Orioles about Mark Teixeira. Tex is from Maryland, for what it’s worth.
Plenty of buzz going around in various forms of media that the Red Sox may acquire reliever LaTroy Hawkins. We’ll know soon enough. The 33 year-old has, at least, kept the ball in the yard and exhibited good control with the Orioles this year.
Rosenthal: Belliard To Cards
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Cardinals will acquire Ron Belliard from the Indians sometime soon. Belliard went 2 for 4 in today’s game against Seattle. Will Carroll is reporting that Hector Luna would go to the Tribe.
Belliard, a 31 year-old second baseman, was hitting .289/.335/.419 entering today’s game. He’s been consistently solid since becoming a regular in 2003. The second base class plays at a higher level in the NL; league average is .276/.341/.424. Belliard is also middle of the pack as far as defense, but he will make a skilled double play partner for David Eckstein. Belliard, an impending free agent, makes $4MM this year.
Belliard represents a clear upgrade over Aaron Miles, though I’m not sure that he’s signficantly better than Hector Luna. Luna, a 26 year-old, has a career line of .276/.336/.398 in 533 ABs. The versatile Luna has played every position but catcher in his Cardinal career. Walt Jocketty got him as a Rule 5 pick in 2002.
Based on yesterday’s update from Bernie Miklasz, the Cardinals seem content to tinker rather than make an impact trade.
Braves Acquire Bob Wickman
As usual, Ken Rosenthal has the scoop: the Braves have their closer in 37 year-old Bob Wickman. The righthander last pitched in the National League back in 2000 with the Brewers. He has 229 career saves.
Wickman has allowed more than a hit per inning this year with the Tribe, up considerably from last year. He’s only surrendered one home run though. His control has deteriorated a bit and his K rate is a bit down from ’05. Wickman is on a one-year, $5MM deal.
The Braves parted with 21 year-old A ball catcher Max Ramirez, who is hitting well this season. Atlanta has good depth behind the plate so they shouldn’t miss Ramirez.
Diamondbacks Trade Rumor: Jake Westbrook
According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Diamondbacks are interested in acquiring Jake Westbrook. The 28 year-old righty is 5th in baseball with a 2.93 groundball/flyball ratio.
The leader, of course, is Brandon Webb at 3.15. Miguel Batista is also in the top 20. Perhaps Josh Byrnes plans on assembling a groundball-heavy pitching staff to match up with Orlando Hudson and the rest of his defensively sound infield.
If so, Byrnes could also target Cory Lidle now or in the offseason. Their reported interest in Dontrelle Willis fits into this agenda as well. I would guess that a deal for Willis or even Westbrook would require the inclusion of one of their top ten prospects. Westbrook was last seen in a trade rumor from January, when the Reds expressed interest.
Lining Up For Shealy
It might be helpful to summarize all the Ryan Shealy suitors from the last few months, just so we can keep them straight. These are all from various newspapers.
The most recent one is that the Red Sox offered 23 year-old southpaw starter Abe Alvarez. Alvarez posted a 4.85 ERA but a solid 1.20 WHIP in Triple A last year. This season, he’s at 4.46 with a 1.36 WHIP. He’s had little opportunity to prove himself in Boston. Random bio: Alvarez likes to wear his hat crooked, is legally blind in one eye, and is known for pinpoint control. Actually, those first two facts aren’t so random – Alvarez wears his hat that way to balance the lighting for that eye. Sounds like a good kid who has overcome quite a bit of adversity, but the Rockies are looking for more.
Then there’s the Orioles. Baltimore has little in the way of first basemen waiting in the wings, but they balked at the Rockies’ request for Hayden Penn. It’s said the team would prefer to deal Javy Lopez, but they’ve been trying to do that for ages. The Rockies could use a decent catcher for their unlikely pennant run, and Lopez is hitting .282/.329/.437 this season at 35. That’s not particularly young for a backstop, and Lopez has only caught 12 games this season out of 56 played. He’d make an interesting addition to a lot of teams, but at $8.5MM this will probably just be a salary dump. The O’s will have to surrender a young player to get Shealy. Adam Loewen seems like too high a price, but I am not an expert in the Orioles’ farm system.
It’s been noted that the Blue Jays are interested, so a third AL East team is in the mix. The Jays already have Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Hinske clogging up the DH spot, so something would have to give before they acquired Shealy. Toronto doesn’t have much in the way of Triple A starters who could be swapped with the Rox.
The Cubs poked around in May with their first base vacancy (albeit two weeks later than they should have). Recent word is that Cubs offered reliever David Aardsma. Besides having the first name in the baseball encyclopedia, Aardsma has 20 solid Triple A innings to his credit. He hasn’t shown much in the Majors this season. The persistent walk problem remains. Assuming Shealy was healthy enough to play left field, the Cubs should step up their offer to at least Rich Hill.
One of the papers mentioned that the Indians inquired within the last year, but there’s no longer a fit. Ryan Garko is not setting the world afire at Buffalo, nor is Ryan Mulhern at Double A. Michael Aubrey has been on the DL with a knee injury since late May. So I’m thinking the Indians would still like to acquire Shealy, but maybe the Rockies were asking for too much.
Shealy is doing well in Colorado Springs (though of course in a hitters’ environment). He’s at .284/.357/.593 after 43 games.
Possible Kearns/Westbrook Swap
Reds interim GM Brad Kullman certainly seems more open-minded than his predecessor, Dan O’Brien. But one of O’Brien’s final non-moves may have been one of his few wise ones. Sheldon Ocker’s Beacon Journal article today reports that O’Brien turned down an Austin Kearns for Jake Westbrook all-Ohio trade prior to his firing.
Such a one for one trade would lean heavily towards the Indians, in my opinion. Here’s my reasoning.
The 25 year-old Kearns has yet to reach his potential, while Westbrook has topped out at age 28. Let’s look at 2005. In just 387 at-bats, Kearns was worth 3.6 wins. Westbrook was worth 3.8, but that was in a full season. Kullman has said that Kearns stands to get 550 ABs in 2006. If Kearns could maintain his .240/.333/.452 line and his defense over that many at-bats, he’d be a 5.1 win right fielder. That kind of production could make him the 8th best RF in the game, and I’m assuming no improvement.
However, it stands to reason that Kearns will indeed improve given the full-time job in ’06. My projection has him hitting .257 with 22 HR and 83 RBI in 486 at-bats this season. PECOTA sees an even bigger jump, to .275/.367/.510 in 459 plate appearances (21 HR). Bill James weighs in with .270/.363/.497 in 392 ABs, and ZiPS went with .258/.349/.480 in 431 ABs. PECOTA lists Pat Burrell and Dale Murphy among his comps. This is a player on the rise, and he makes $1.85MM.
Westbrook’s ability lies somewhere between his 3.38 ERA in 2004 and his 4.49 ERA last year. He’s a solid 210 inning guy, and an extreme groundball pitcher. Projections:
RotoAuthority: 3.98 ERA in 213 IP
PECOTA: 3.97 ERA in 199 IP
James: 3.91 ERA in 211 IP
ZiPS: 4.02 ERA in 195 IP
Wow. That’s as close to a consensus as four projection systems can get. But here’s the rub. In 2005, the Indians had the 3rd best defense in baseball. The Reds had the 3rd worst. Kullman might think he needs groundball pitchers to succeed in a park that inflates HRs by 16%, but that won’t work with a crappy defense. Westbrook does keep the ball in the park, but that’s only half the battle. The Reds need a guy who also misses bats. Westbrook’s $4.25MM salary for 2006 and $5.6MM option for ’07 are quite reasonable, however.
Some fine alternatives for the Reds would’ve been Josh Beckett and Esteban Loaiza. While neither would’ve come cheaply, both are built to succeed in Great American Ballpark. Out of possible remaining trade candidates, I think Matt Clement and Brad Penny could prosper as Reds. If the Dodgers were to send Jayson Werth elsewhere, it could open up some room for Kearns. The Red Sox would do well to groom a replacement for Trot Nixon.
Should the Indians add Kearns and Marte for Westbrook and Crisp this offseason, they’ll have improved their team while also making it younger and cheaper, a rare feat. What’s more, a Millwood-esque signing of Jeff Weaver could keep the starting rotation five-deep with 200 inning guys, a model perfected by the White Sox.
Crisp For Marte Done Deal?
According to a source:
"I’ve been told it’s a done deal with a contingency regarding Mota’s health. If he hits the DL a predetermined amount of times Sox might have to give up another player to be named later."
This is the same rumor/source cited in the recent RotoWorld blurb on the topic. RotoWorld also points to a Paul Hoynes Cleveland Plain Dealer article from this morning. Here’s that info:
"There is movement in the Coco Crisp trade to Boston.
Indians left-hander Arthur Rhodes, according to a major league source, flew to Philadelphia on Friday morning to undergo a physical by the Philadelphia Phillies. Rhodes is part of a much discussed three-way trade among the Indians, Boston and Philadelphia.
The source said the Indians are still negotiating with Boston on the main part of the trade. The key players discussed between the Indians and Boston – Crisp and third base prospect Andy Marte and right-hander Guillermo Mota – reportedly remain the same. Other players who may be traded include Indians reliever David Riske and catcher Josh Bard and Boston catcher Kelly Shoppach and right-hander Manny Delcarmen.
Rhodes would be traded for Phillies outfielder Jason Michaels, who would replace Crisp in left field."
On Michaels For Rhodes…
Obviously there are a lot of conflicting reports and general confusion surrounding this whole Crisp/Marte/Michaels/Rhodes thing. I’ve read several iterations, sometimes with catchers involved.
I apologize for contributing so little information on this one, but rest assured I’ve been trying. Here’s what little I know:
A Cleveland source tells me the Indians are really keeping a lid on everything. He’s a lot closer to the team than I, and he hasn’t been able to dig up details.
I also spoke to a source familiar with the inner workings of the Phillies. He’s scrambling for information as well. He told me that the Phils have been dangling Jason Michaels for a while now, and it’s quite possible that all they could get for him is Arthur Rhodes. Such an acquisition will facilitate Ryan Madson‘s move to the rotation.
He also mentioned that the Phils have had interest in Kelly Shoppach for some time now, though Carlos Ruiz is every bit as good if he can manage to stay healthy.
Crisp For Marte Trade Complete?
Tony Massarotti of the Boston Herald had the scoop last night:
"According to baseball sources, the Red Sox and Cleveland Indians have agreed in principle on a deal that will bring outfielder Coco Crisp to the Sox in a multi-player trade. The deal was agreed upon several days ago under the condition that Cleveland be able to acquire another outfielder to replace Crisp, presumably Jason Michaels from the Philadelphia Phillies."
While everyone seems to agree that Crisp and Marte are the principles and the teams have been talking quite a bit, no other source that I’ve found has confirmed this trade as complete. Chris Snow of the Boston Glove indicates that talks are still ongoing.
Should the deal go down, it appears that the Indians plan to hold Marte back for one more year. According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer:
"The Indians feel Marte will have to spend this season at Class AAA regardless of his position, which doesn’t do them much good if they’re going to challenge Chicago in the AL Central."
The Indians restructured and exercised Aaron Boone‘s 2006 option in August of 2005, apparently deciding that there was no better alternative considering the price ($3.75MM). In his age 32 season, Boone posted a .243/.299/.378 line in 511 at-bats. That performance ranked 36th offensively among third baseman in 2005. Boone spent much of the season shaking off the rust after missing 2004 because of a torn ACL. He did manage to improve to .276/.336/.394 in the second half.
Still, you have to think the Indians made the decision on Boone’s option before they realized Marte was available. Given that Marte hit .275/.372/.506 as a 21 year-old in Triple A, he would very likely approximate or exceed Boone’s 2006 production at a tenth of the cost.
Spinning Edgar Renteria, Guillermo Mota, and cash into Coco Crisp is a fine deal on the surface for the Red Sox. However, they may have opened up a new hole by solving their center field problem. The team will now be relying on a positive contribution from Mike Lowell, who is no safe bet for a rebound following a woeful .236/.298/.360 line in 2005. Lowell was, in fact, one of the few third basemen worse than Aaron Boone in 2005.
The addition of Alex Gonzalez is also probably not a good thing for Boston. Even with defense considered, the Sox would be lucky to get an Orlando Cabrera-ish contribution in 2006. (And I’m referring to Cabrera circa 2005, who hit .257/.309/.365).
The real winner in all of this is the Indians. Even if they do delay Marte’s debut, Crisp wasn’t irreplaceable as a left fielder. The average AL left fielder hit .278/.333/.437 in 2005, while Crisp hit .300/.345/.465. Marte projects to be a solid regular and has star potential.