Wolf, Baez to new homes
Looks like Randy Wolf is about to become a Dodger. Apparently LA is set to sign him to a one-year deal with an option for 2008; I’d guess it’s in the $6-7M range. The same article speculates that Greg Maddux is looking for a raise on his $9M salary from last year–a two-year deal for Mike Mussina money. I guess I didn’t realize quite what a stud he was after the trade last year, but I don’t know who’s going to give him that kind of cash. I’ve been a Maddux fan since the first time he was with the Cubs, but if you had the choice between Maddux at $22.5M/2 and Ted Lilly at $27M/3, isn’t that a no-brainer? Then again, we don’t know that Lilly won’t get more than that.
Also, Danys Baez looks to be headed to Baltimore. The Orioles seem to think that, whatever their problems were last year, they can be solved with a very expensive bullpen. It’s a three-year deal, according to the Baltimore Sun, and I suppose it could open up the possibility that Chris Ray could be traded for something that the Orioles really need. Like, oh, I don’t know, an 1B/OF/DH type who can hit above replacement level? (Otherwise known as "the Fahey line.")
By Jeff Sackmann
Juan Pierre: $45M/5
Insanity. $9M for Pierre is a stretch: he’s not a great defender, he hasn’t posted an OBP above .330 in two years, and he isn’t even a particularly high-percentage basestealer. As I mentioned earlier, Kenny Lofton had a better 2006. But, in this market, $9M a year for a leadoff hitter isn’t too crazy–Pierre might well be better than, say, Gary Matthews Jr.
But…five years? It would certainly appear that Matthews is going to get the money he’s after. Dave Roberts‘s agent probably just upped his demands, too. Even Lofton ought to get either a two-year deal or a rich one-year contract.
In other news this evening:
The Marlins swapped Chris Resop to the Angels for Kevin Gregg.
The Mets officially declined Tom Glavine‘s option.
Pierre to the Dodgers?
Rosenthal says Juan Pierre is about to sign with the Dodgers. Oddly enough, it probably won’t result in an improvement from last year: Kenny Lofton had a very nice season in LA, outperforming Pierre in just about every category except for steals. The Dodgers do need at least one more outfielder, as only Andre Ethier is much of a certainty, but this is an awfully expensive way to plug that gap.
Rosenthal doesn’t mention money, but a couple of days ago, a report surfaced that the Giants had offered Pierre $30M for 3 years. That’s awful high if you think Ethier can play center, or if you think Matt Kemp (or any number of other Dodger farmhands) might be ready by 2008. However, Ned Colletti didn’t shop in the bargain bin last year, and it doesn’t look like he’s going to do so this year, either.
By Jeff Sackmann
Garciaparra About to Sign
The Dodgers now have a first (or third) baseman for the next couple of years. Nomar Garciaparra agreed to come back to L.A. for two more years. There have been no monetary details in the articles I’ve seen, but since Nomar made $8.5M with incentives last year, I have to imagine he’s making more than that in each year of this deal. Maybe $10-11M per year? Seems like his value should be in the Frank Thomas range; maybe a little higher since the risk of career-ending injury isn’t so high.
With Bill Mueller’s retirement, that would seem to open up third base for Wilson Betemit, unless Rafael Furcal or Jeff Kent gets hurt, in which case Betemit could slide over, opening up third for Nomar or Andy LaRoche. If Nomar is slotted in at first, that means (as speculated) that James Loney will start the year in the outfield.
UPDATE: The LA Times says it’s $18M total. Good deal for Ned Coletti.
By Jeff Sackmann
Pujols Arrested for Crack Possession
Kei Igawa Has Been Posted
Rotoworld lists the potential suitors for Kei Igawa as the "Padres, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Mets, Cubs and Indians." They rule out the Red Sox and Mariners, though this Tacoma News-Tribune article says the M’s are "likely" to bid. That same article predicts that the posting fee will be about "two-thirds less" than Daisuke Matsuzaka‘s $51.1M: $17M.
That seems high for a guy who David Wright isn’t convinced has MLB-quality stuff. Personally, I wouldn’t want my team spending more than $10M for his rights, but with all those teams involved, $17M seems plausible.
UPDATE: An alert e-mailer points out this article on the Braves official site. According to club officials, Atlanta won’t be involved in this one.
By Jeff Sackmann
MetsBlog On Dontrelle Willis
MetsBlog’s Matthew Cerrone talked to various baseball insiders and came away with some info concerning the possibility of a Dontrelle Willis trade. Cerrone’s sources indicate the Marlins want an MLB ready potential All-Star and the D’Backs and Dodgers are best equipped to satisfy that request.
Pure speculation, but I could see a deal for Matt Kemp and one of Scott Elbert/Chad Billingsley. This would be comparable to the bounty the Fish received for Josh Beckett – stud position player, stud starter. I wouldn’t make that deal if I was Ned Colletti, but that’s what I could see Larry Beinfest requiring.
Kei Igawa Hopes To Play On West Coast
Word from Yahoo Japan (in Japanese) tonight is that southpaw pitcher Kei Igawa would like to join a West Coast team. That probably means the Dodgers or Mariners, who have hosted such Japanese stars as Ichiro, Kenji Johjima, and Takashi Saito.
Of course, Igawa is coming to the U.S. via the posting system and doesn’t have a say in his destination. However, his preference to play on the west coast may compel Ned Colletti or Bill Bavasi to bid higher and sign Igawa to a slightly cheaper contract.
So far the Braves, Mets, and Tigers have also been connected to Igawa. The smart money is on the Dodgers or Mariners with the Mets in a distant third. However, history may go out the window as 2007 brings the largest influx of Japanese talent to the Majors yet. More and more teams are looking overseas to fill their needs.
If the Dodgers are to re-sign Greg Maddux and the Mariners miss out on Matsuzaka, Igawa seems to be destined for Seattle.
2007 Los Angeles Dodgers
I received several requests for the Dodgers to be covered in the next 2007 Team Outlook.
Ned Colletti’s contract obligations:
C – Russell Martin – $0.33MM
C –
1B – James Loney – $0.33MM
2B – Jeff Kent – $9MM
SS – Rafael Furcal – $13MM
3B – Wilson Betemit – $0.345MM/Andy LaRoche – $0.33MM
IF – Olmedo Saenz – $1MM
LF – Andre Ethier – $0.33MM
CF – Jason Repko – $0.338MM/Matt Kemp – $0.33MM
RF – J.D. Drew – $11MM
OF – Marlon Anderson – $0.925MM
OF – Jayson Werth – $0.355MM
SP – Derek Lowe – $9.5MM
SP – Brad Penny – $7.5MM
SP – Hong-Chih Kuo – $0.3275MM
SP – Chad Billingsley – $0.33MM
SP – Mark Hendrickson – $2MM
RP – Brett Tomko – $4.1MM
RP – Jonathan Broxton – $0.33MM
RP – Elmer Dessens – $1.7MM (paid by KC)
RP – Yhency Brazoban – $0.345MM
RP – Takashi Saito – $0.33MM
RP – Greg Miller – $0.33MM
RP –
Buyouts:
RP – Eric Gagne – $1MM
OF – Jose Cruz Jr. – $0.3MM
Nontender candidates:
C – Toby Hall – $2.5MM
Injured players:
3B – Bill Mueller – $4.5MM (hopes for an experimental knee treatment to allow him to play)
Ballpark estimate: $70MM tied up. This team came into 2006 with a $98MM payroll, so money will be spent again.
I put down Hall as a nontender candidate as most teams don’t pay a backup catcher that much money. He did hit surprisingly well in his very limited Dodger sample. Perhaps they’ll keep him and make a trade?
Try Loney at first, or resign Nomar? It’s worth noting that Garciaparra’s big comeback season was exactly league average for first base. Plus he only played three-quarters of the team’s games. I think Loney will be worse than that, but not terribly so. If you choose the kid, you’ve got to upgrade in a few of the other open spots.
One of those open spots is 3B. Bill Mueller looks like a no go for 2007, so we’re looking at some combination of Betemit and young Andy LaRoche. The Dodgers hope LaRoche will be fully healed from labrum surgery of the throwing shoulder by spring training.
They probably don’t want to block LaRoche for four years, which takes A-Rod out of the picture. If you use that logic, though, Aramis Ramirez becomes unlikely as well. Perhaps Colletti would sign Ramirez and worry about LaRoche later. In that case he’ll be competing with the Angels and several other clubs for the best free agent 3B. Yet another route would be Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura, said to be admired by the Padres.
The Dodgers have similar situations in left and center field: kids who might be capable but could have growing pains. What to make of Ethier’s second half (.277/.337/.429)? Fine for a young kid but probably not the starting left fielder on a big budget team. (Matt Murton, ahem). Kemp’s CF defense has been panned, and Repko/Werth don’t look like starters.
Should Colletti deal Scott Elbert or one of his other talented prospects, perhaps the Dodgers could acquire Vernon Wells or Andruw Jones for center field. Otherwise Jim Edmonds seems like a reasonable signing.
With the quasi-openings at 1B, 3B, LF, and CF, Colletti will probably bring in several veteran free agents as he did for 2006. I can’t see the Dodgers going with young players in more than two of those four spots.
For the starting rotation, we know that Colletti would like to bring Maddux back for a full season. Such a move would probably push Hendrickson to the pen. A related scenario: trade the frustrating Penny to fill a position, and then go after Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito. How about Penny to Houston for Morgan Ensberg? To the Rangers for Hank Blalock? To Cincy for Adam Dunn? Tell me your ideas in the comments.
Should a starter struggle or get hurt, the Dodgers will have Hendrickson and Tomko at the ready to fill in. And if Elbert harnesses his control he could join the rotation by summertime.
The bullpen looks solid, and the Dodgers don’t need the frustration of Eric Gagne. For a big-time discount, maybe, but they’ll be fine without him assuming Saito stays and Brazoban is healthy. Tomko is a candidate to be dealt, as he’ll probably be unhappy as a middle reliever.
With $30MM to spend, Colletti might be able to acquire Edmonds, Schmidt, and someone like Rich Aurilia to play some third and first. If youngsters like Kemp, LaRoche, and Loney prove worthy they can get plenty of ABs too for this fragile team.
Posting Possibility: Kei Igawa
Kei Igawa is a 27 year-old southpaw with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. He pitched 200 innings this year with a 3.11 ERA and 8.3 K/9, winning 13 games.
Igawa made a request for posting after 2005, but was denied. While Igawa hopes to be posted this winter, the Tigers’ owner seems opposed to the idea. There’s also the somewhat odd and perhaps related occurence of Igawa breaking down in tears on the mound after his final home start. If he’s not posted, Igawa will become a free agent after the 2009 season.
Reader Iwanaga Tak was kind enough to give me some info and translate this article for me. Apparently, there is a chance Igawa could be posted if Hanshin signs free agent hurler Hiroki Kuroda to replace him as their ace. American scouts haven’t shown much interest in the 31 year-old Kuroda, who is a free agent.
Speculation has Igawa’s posting fee expected to be around $10MM, a little less than Ichiro’s. If he is posted, he’d be a #3-4 type starter with a salary in the range of $3MM annually. Interested parties include the Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Braves, and Tigers. Hanshin should make a decision about posting Igawa after the Japan Series, which starts next week.