Erstad Options
According to Ken Rosenthal, free agent center fielder Darin Erstad is expected to choose a team this week. The 32 year-old has a slight chance at signing with the Angels or Cubs, but is more likely to choose between the Marlins or White Sox.
It appears that Florida is Erstad’s best shot at regular playing time, given that his competition is Alex Sanchez. With Chicago Erstad would split time with Brian Anderson and perhaps Ryan Sweeney.
Rosenthal reports that the Cubs hope to acquire a young, cheap CF to hold the fort until Felix Pie is ready. This comes despite the recent proclamation that Alfonso Soriano would play center. Pie has an interesting PECOTA projection – Baseball Prospectus forecasts a .289/.342/.481 line from him as a 22 year-old in the Majors.
What Would You Bid For Miguel Cabrera?
Juan C. Rodriguez is already discussing Miguel Cabrera‘s free agency, even though he won’t reach that point until after the 2009 season. The magical $200 million number is being thrown around.
If anyone’s going to get an A-Rod-ish contract, it’s M-Cab. Alright that’s it for hyphenated nicknames today. D-Mat. Eight years would have to be the minimum; the Cubs would probably offer twelve (kidding). And a $20MM AAV seems low to me. I would expect $25MM. So yeah, eight years, $200MM is reasonable.
The part of this article I’m not following:
"The same team unwilling to give Cabrera a $22 million AAV over eight years ($176 million) may deem six years and a $29 million AAV ($174 million) more palatable."
I’m no economist, but does that make sense to you? I get the whole higher AAV, fewer years/risk concept. But explain to me why you wouldn’t want two extra years for $4 mil more?
Marlins Interested In Benitez, Reitsma
Another year, another phoenix closer for the Fish. This time they’re considering going back to one of their best, Armando Benitez. The Marlins and Giants are still moving along on that one, though the players and money involved aren’t clear yet. Benitez seems to like the idea.
The Marlins may go after new free agents Chris Reitsma and Jorge Sosa as well. Might as well round ’em up and try to piece together a bullpen. The team is still hunting for the right center fielder, but the rotation is set with Willis-Johnson-Olsen-Sanchez-Nolasco.
Juan Pierre: $45M/5
Insanity. $9M for Pierre is a stretch: he’s not a great defender, he hasn’t posted an OBP above .330 in two years, and he isn’t even a particularly high-percentage basestealer. As I mentioned earlier, Kenny Lofton had a better 2006. But, in this market, $9M a year for a leadoff hitter isn’t too crazy–Pierre might well be better than, say, Gary Matthews Jr.
But…five years? It would certainly appear that Matthews is going to get the money he’s after. Dave Roberts‘s agent probably just upped his demands, too. Even Lofton ought to get either a two-year deal or a rich one-year contract.
In other news this evening:
The Marlins swapped Chris Resop to the Angels for Kevin Gregg.
The Mets officially declined Tom Glavine‘s option.
Mets and Marlins trade minor league arms
The Mets traded Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom, both RHPs, to Florida for Jason Vargas and Adam Bostick, both LHPs. Here’s a link; apparently the announcement is coming at 6pm EST. Vargas is the most MLB-ready of the bunch: he had a nifty half-season in 2005, but wasn’t able to repeat in ’06. He’ll provide rotation insurance for New York of the Oliver Perez variety.
Owens is probably the guy with the biggest potential impact: in 40 Double-A innings, he struck out seventy-four. He’s got some control problems, too, but adjusting for park and translating his stats to MLB numbers, that gives him an OPS against of .456. OPS! He could be a good one. Lindstrom and Bostick are in there to even out the deal; Lindstrom is mostly roster filler at this point–he had a good year between A+ and AA, but he’s 26. Bostick is 23, but still has only pitched a few innings above Double-A.
Also just in: the Moises Alou deal is one year, $7.5 million with a club option for 2008.
By Jeff Sackmann
2007 Florida Marlins
Any Marlins fans out there? Let’s take a look at the team’s setup for 2007.
Larry Beinfest’s contract obligations:
C – Miguel Olivo – $0.7MM
C – Matt Treanor – $0.38MM
1B – Mike Jacobs – $0.38MM
2B – Dan Uggla – $0.38MM
SS – Hanley Ramirez – $0.38MM
3B – Miguel Cabrera – $6MM
IF – Alfredo Amezaga – $0.38MM
LF – Josh Willingham – $0.38MM
CF –
RF – Jeremy Hermida – $0.38MM
OF – Joe Borchard – $0.38MM
OF – Cody Ross – $0.38MM
SP – Dontrelle Willis – $7MM
SP – Josh Johnson – $0.38MM
SP – Scott Olsen – $0.38MM
SP – Anibal Sanchez – $0.38MM
SP – Ricky Nolasco – $0.38MM
RP – Taylor Tankersley – $0.38MM
RP – Sergio Mitre – $0.38MM
RP – Logan Kensing – $0.38MM
RP – Yusmeiro Petit – $0.38MM
RP – Renyel Pinto – $0.38MM
RP – Randy Messenger – $0.38MM
RP – Jason Vargas – $0.38MM
I see the payroll landing in the $21MM range once Willis and Cabrera get their raises. The figures I have above are estimates; if Cabrera got $6MM I believe that would be a record for a first-year arbitration player. If anyone deserves more than Jeter/Gagne received, it’s Miggy.
Among position players, the team is almost entirely locked in. Around the infield, the only position Beinfest might consider upgrading is first base. But Jacobs’s .798 OPS wasn’t that far below league average for the position, and he could improve entering his age 26 season.
It’s well known that the Fish are searching for a reliable center fielder for 2007. Back in October, Joe Capozzi wrote a list of possible targets: Chris Duffy, Willy Taveras, Matt Kemp, Rocco Baldelli, and Elijah Dukes. Florida has a surplus of young starters to send the other way.
Should Houston sign Gary Matthews Jr., the Taveras to Florida rumors will intensify. Taveras will be 25 next year and he plays solid defense. He wouldn’t be bad at the bottom of the lineup. Juan Pierre wouldn’t mind returning, but that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for the Marlins. One guy who could work is Reggie Willits of the Angels. He’ll be 26 next season and posted a .448 OBP in Triple A this year.
While Hermida disappointed in right field, he is only 22 and he skipped Triple A. Plus, he dealt with hip flexor and ankle problems for much of the season. He’ll be a walk machine with good power before long.
As for the rotation, Dontrelle and the Kids somehow came up with the third best ERA in the National League (4.22). I expect various health issues and some decent regression for Sanchez, but there’s nothing to tinker with this offseason. One of Mitre, Petit, Pinto, and Vargas should be able to step up if needed as all are starters by trade.
Willis, as the face of the team and veteran leader, should not be traded. There’s no rush to do so. The Marlins only have two players making more than a million bucks; their cost per win is astronomically low. No one is picking Beinfest’s pocket with some kind of Brian Bannister and Alex Ochoa package or something.
Right now the ‘pen looks like a slew of kids with Mitre as the elder statesman. Time for another veteran reclamation project! Danny Graves? Dustin Hermanson? Dan Kolb? Shawn Chacon? Cliff Politte? Mike DeJean? Hideki Irabu? John Rocker? OK, the last two were jokes, but all these guys have closing experience. Always fun to see who the Marlins resurrect. Maybe Ugueth Urbina will get out on parole or something.
Bottom line, the Marlins are awesome. It is just cool to see so many young guys on one team doing surprisingly well. While players like Uggla and Sanchez could take a step back in ’07, there’s no telling how things will play out. Just a ton of uncertainty with this group. One thing’s for sure – everyone will take this club seriously in 2007.
Marlins Looking For A Center Fielder
I’m still amazed at how good the Marlins were in 2006 and how bright their future looks. I’d like to see other teams try the "blow it all up" approach, because the Fish are a cool team.
Latest word from Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post is that the Marlins will look externally to fill their center field hole. The combination of Reggie Abercrombie, Alfredo Amezaga, Cody Ross, and Eric Reed simply did not work in 2006.
Capozzi names Chris Duffy, Willy Taveras, and Matt Kemp as targets according to his sources. He adds Rocco Baldelli and Elijah Dukes as other possibilities.
My guy would be Dukes. He has speed, range, and a great arm. He got on base over 40% of the time at Triple A this year. He showed 20 HR potential too. What’s not to like?
Oh, yeah. Five suspensions this year alone and problems with half the team, coaching staff included. Clearly Dukes needs a fresh start, and he could be a steal if Fredi Gonzalez could calm him down.
All of these options have their flaws: Duffy will be 27 next year, Taveras hits like Juan Pierre, Kemp’s defense is in question, and Baldelli won’t come cheap.
Girardi On the Outs in Florida
The Marlins’ front office appears to be feeding negative info to the press in an attempt to tarnish his reputation before he’s ultimately fired after the season. The latest is a leak of a series of moves Girardi wanted to make. From David Hyde this morning:
"For instance, back in spring training, according to two Marlins sources, here’s some changes Girardi pushed for: Miguel Cabrera from third to first base; Dan Uggla not at second base but in left field; Josh Willingham at catcher, not Miguel Olivo; Alfredo Amezaga might not have made the team; and young pitchers like Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson would have started in the minor leagues."
According to Buster Olney, that kind of info could only have come from a front office leak. If so, they’re doing a pretty poor job of taking Girardi down a peg. Remember, it was Marlins’ upper management that screwed Girardi over by conducting an unexpected fire sale after his hiring. He thought he signed on to manage a contender; he got 25 kids. I didn’t hear much complaining.
Hindsight is 20/20, and those decisions did not look disastrous before the season began. Is it really a bad thing to move Cabrera a bit further down the defensive spectrum? He’s not Scott Rolen, either for defensive skills or effort.
And the left field situation was a mess before the season began. The Fish had Jeremy Hermida in right and open auditions for the rest of the outfield. Whether Willingham could even handle left capably was a complete unknown. And personally, I still like the idea of Willingham at catcher. He’s hitting .265/.341/.470 this year. That’s top-notch for a backstop, and average for a left fielder. Miguel Olivo has worked out behind the plate, but that doesn’t make Girardi a bad manager for considering other options.
Alfredo Amezaga? Who cares? He’s versatile, but he’s 28 and hitting .266/.337/.345.
It’s just plain unfair to suggest that starting Nolasco and Johnson in the minors would’ve been a bad decision. Nolasco had shown zero ability to get out Triple A hitters. Johnson skipped Triple A. There’s nothing wrong with skipping that level, but it’s not bad for a player’s development to try it when he’s been less than dominant at Double A.
Girardi’s done a capable job managing a ridiculously inexperienced team. He’s not entirely responsible for their success, but a ton of young guys have come along nicely under his watch. That’s a feather in his cap. I’d love to see the Cubs hire him.
Washington Post: Marlins In On Soriano
Less than fifteen hours to go, and things are getting crazy.
Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post reports that the Marlins, yes, the Marlins, have made a bid for Alfonso Soriano. Apparently they have offered pitchers Yusmeiro Petit, Renyel Pinto, and Jason Vargas. That’s not a bad bounty, though it lacks a future star type guy.
I was surprised to discover this afternoon that the Marlins actually lead the NL in starter ERA. Scott Olsen‘s been lights out since June 1st, one of the best in baseball. Dontrelle Willis has been a touch above average. Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco have far exceeded expectations.
The Fish are eighth in the NL in slugging, so Soriano would provide a nice boost. Where would they fit him in? Center field?
If the Marlins miraculously sneak into the playoffs, it’ll make a fantastic story. Remember back in December, when most people thought this would be a 100-loss team? I liked the front part of their lineup, but no one expected this kind of starting pitching.
Trade Rumor Roundup: 9 Days Left
Let’s see what we’ve got this morning in the non-Hillenbrand department…
This is cool: a commenter over at Viva El Birdos emailed Dontrelle Willis‘s agent, Matt Sosnick, asking about the latest trade rumor. Meanwhile, Jayson Stark was adamant in his chat Friday that Willis will not be traded.
Enough with the Mike Lowell for Jake Peavy rumors, folks. No. Freakin’. Way. I know Buster Olney mentioned that Boston must’ve been targeting a notable pitcher given how well Lowell has played this year (.297/.349/.504) but Peavy isn’t going anywhere. Plus, if you adjust Lowell’s production for PETCO Park it would be pretty close to league average for his position.
Could Mike Pelfrey be traded as a player to be named later? The answer seems to be Yes, if named in January, and only if sent to an AL team. MetsBlog tries to decipher MLB’s rules. Of course, Pelfrey is not going to be traded. But it’s good to know.
Gut feeling…I think the Brewers will trade Carlos Lee. Doug Melvin is preparing for a deal, and I think this is an opportunity he can’t pass up.
What’s with the Indians picture next to George Kottaras?