Cardinals Discussing Dontrelle Willis Trade
The Cardinals message boards are lighting up, and with good reason: there is a legitimate Dontrelle Willis rumor making the rounds.
The thread was started by a respected Cards source who goes by the handle Hawg Wild. I can confirm that this guy has a track record of success. Colby Rasmus is a 19 year-old outfielder in high Class A. He was a first-round pick and is easily the team’s best prospect now that Anthony Reyes is in the bigs. According to Rasmus’s father:
"Colby just called me and said his agent told him of conversations the cardinals were having with the possibility of Colby and a three or four other Cardinal players going to Florida in return for Dontrelle Willis. Reyes and Colby were the only 2 players Colby was told about, he did not hear who the other 2/3 players were. His words to me, ‘Man that sucks.’"
Then to quiet any doubters, St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz stepped in:
"I tried to drop a major hint in today’s column….FLA wants Reyes, Rasmus and Duncan — and that’s not all. Probably one more… possibly their pick of the Cardinals’ system."
The Cardinals need a big move; it looks like Walt Jocketty may package everything he’s got to get D-Train. Check out Viva El Birdos for analysis. After much deliberating, Viva chooses to endorse such a trade.
Rox, Jays Interested In D-Train?
We haven’t mentioned Canada’s Marty York in a good two months. Back in March, York mentioned that the Blue Jays were close to acquiring Craig Wilson and that A.J. Burnett would miss all of April. Wilson’s a Pirate and Burnett made two starts in April, but I have to give him partial credit on Burnett.
Last Tuesday, York threw out all sorts of intiguing teams in connection with Dontrelle Willis. The Blue Jays and Rockies were two I definitely hadn’t heard before.
Willis to Colorado isn’t as crazy as it sounds. For one thing, the Rockies are shockingly a half game out of first place in the West. Secondly, they’ve never really tried this strategy in Colorado: just acquire really good pitchers and the ballpark won’t matter. A rotation of Willis, Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Jason Jennings, and Byung-Hyun Kim would actually be decent. Would the Rox offer up Ian Stewart and Brad Hawpe?
The Blue Jays, though…that part would be more feasible if the team had expendable young studs with which to make a deal. Dustin McGowan, Josh Banks, Brandon League, David Purcey, and Casey Janssen are all intriguing young pitchers, but only McGowan has been seen on any Top 50 Prospects lists. I imagine the Fish would want Alex Rios in the deal. Still doesn’t seem like a good fit.
York also mentions the Rangers, Yankees, and Phillies as interested parties.
Marlins Made Crazy Offer To Mets
According to Jon Heyman, the Fish offered Dontrelle Willis to the Mets for David Wright this spring. Sounds like something out of a fantasy league.
Baseball Prospectus projects Wright to be with about ten more wins than Willis over the next five seasons. I believe Heyman here. His report definitely calls Jeffrey Loria’s denials into question. Sounds like the Fish are shooting for the moon with Willis, but he really does seem to be available.
What do you think of a Willis for Chase Utley deal? Who wins, and why wouldn’t it work?
Olney’s Scoop On Willis
As the rumors heat up about possible Dontrelle Willis trades, Buster Olney had an informative blog post today. Here’s an excerpt of Olney quoting a team exec:
"When they traded Beckett, they basically contacted every team and then took offers. They haven’t said anything about those guys being available, and it would make sense that if they wanted to move them, they would tell everybody, because there would be a lot of interest."
I find it interesting that every team was given the opportunity to make an offer for Beckett. I wonder how common this practice is? Olney finishes by saying:
"Though neither Willis nor Cabrera is believed to be on the market now, the executives also have little doubt that both will be elsewhere before Opening Day next season."
It seems that the several GMs Ken Rosenthal spoke to are not any of the same people Olney spoke to. You’ll recall that Rosenthal’s sources said it’s "practically a given that the Marlins will trade Willis before July 31st."
I’ll side with Olney – I think Willis stays put this summer.
Who’s the favorite in the Willis derby, whether it’s this summer or this winter? I lean towards the Red Sox, but the Yankees need him even more. The Sox definitely have more young talent to offer, however. A couple of dark horses are the two Texas teams. But really, there are probably 15 teams that could be in the running.
Rosenthal On Willis Trade Possibility
We were all a bit skeptical of the idea of the Marlins trading their best pitcher, 24 year-old southpaw Dontrelle Willis. But I have to say, Ken Rosenthal’s article yesterday makes a Willis trade sound like a very legitimate possibility. Read up.
Rosenthal mentions Felix Pie, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Jon Lester as possible starting points for their respective teams. An offer starting with Lester and Dustin Pedroia would have to get the Marlins listening. An acquisition of Willis would give the team three former Marlins in the rotation.
Then there’s always Lastings Milledge, Omar Minaya’s last bullet. The Dodgers and Angels also have an overflow of young talent should either team decide they are one starting pitcher away from the playoffs.
Scary factoid: Willis’s top comparable, according to Baseball Prospectus? Steve Avery, circa 1994. Back in ’94, Avery was a 24 year-old southpaw coming off a brilliant 18 win, 2.94 ERA season. Avery never posted an ERA below 4 again. On the plus side, the 2003 version of Mark Buehrle is next on the list.
Marlins Looking To Trade Cabrera
Halos Heaven is the best Angels blog on the ‘net. I recommend bookmarking it as a daily stop. I was perusing Rev Halofan’s latest material after fending off some angry Angels fans. They were less than amused that I ranked Dan Haren over John Lackey in 2006 fantasy baseball value. It brought up an interesting topic for another day: would the baseball world have praised the Esteban Loaiza signing if he were adopting an Angels cap instead of an Athletics one?
Anyway, let’s get down to business. Trade rumor business. Back on Monday, Halos Heaven reported various detailed trade rumors with all sorts of new juicy information. Go read that post and then come back here.
After reading that, I went directly to the source to dig for more info. Rev Halofan was gracious and responsive, providing enough off the record info about his multiple inside sources to convince me fully. As far as his connections, I can vouch that they’re impressive.
On to the first rumor from the site:
"So many teams are scouting Dallas McPherson that if he explodes this Spring, Angel GM Stoneman is prepared to be bowled over by a multi-player offer and is planning a few contingency trades.This might explain recent discussions for what was initially a confusing trade possibility of Adam Kennedy to the Astros for Jason Lane."
I asked Rev why the Astros would give up Lane to get a second baseman with Craig Biggio already in the fold. He told me that Houston is somewhat concerned with Biggio’s durability and that "if he twists something this spring, look for Kennedy there within 48 hours."
Rev told me that Howie Kendrick just needs to flash halfway decent leather in the minors and Kennedy will be a goner. Lane could play left for the Angels if Juan Rivera is used in another deal. Stoneman is still in the hunt for middle relief.
I’d surmised McPherson would be available back in January on RotoAuthority, but it was just a logical assumption. Even with 40 HR potential, he seems to be the odd man out.
On to the big gun, Rev’s Miguel Cabrera rumor. Some more details: the Marlins requested Chone Figgins and assorted Angels top prospects for their young superstar but were turned down. The Fish are definitely shopping Cabrera at this point.
As for the Cubs portion of the rumor, he commented: "They will definitely want Felix Pie and lots more from the Cubs – but my understanding is that the Cubs were just begging to be let into the party."
Back in late February, I mentioned that the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, and Mets would probably have the prospects, cash, and desire to acquire Cabrera.
Would The Marlins Trade Miguel Cabrera?
The Marlins are nearing a major decision on Miguel Cabrera: build around him or trade him for an unprecedented bounty. The budding superstar will be 23 this season and hits arbitration for the first time next winter.
Palm Beach Post journalist Joe Capozzi writes that GM Larry Beinfest declined comment on Cabrera’s future with the team. He points out that Cabrera may score a payday of $7-10MM in arbitration after the season. Given that the Marlins didn’t want to pay Josh Beckett $4-5MM this winter, it stands to reason that they may consider trading Cabrera during the 2006 season.
Cabrera can play third base or the outfield corners. He’s obviously the type of player teams build around, with a laundry list of HOFers on his comparables list. Frank Robinson, Albert Pujols, Vladimir Guerrero, Eddie Murray, Hank Aaron, and Johnny Bench all appear within his ten most similar players. Cabrera would be a bargain if he was paid $15MM annually over the next five seasons.
I would expect the Yankees to pursue him aggressively if he’s available, likely offering up the one gem in their farm system, Philip Hughes. I could see the Angels getting involved if they’d be willing to surrender Howie Kendrick or Brandon Wood. The Dodgers and Mets could also make a play.
One more note on Cabrera. Ron Shandler’s 2006 Baseball Forecaster had some interesting comments this year:
"He could get even better…a power spike may be on the horizon…as long as this is really all him."
I edited some stat-related stuff out of the comment, but that’s the gist of it. It certainly makes sense to call for 40+ HR seasons from Cabrera, but to imply steroid use? I guess someone had to throw it out there; I hadn’t seen it in print until now. I can’t judge Shandler for it; after all, we just witnessed a tainted era in baseball history. Plus, I’ve been known to monger many a steroid rumor in my day.
Hopefully players start getting on board for the Player’s Promise Program to ease our concerns. A description of this new non-profit program:
"The PBFA has asked each and every player with a MLB contract to sign a Players Promise which states that they will not use steroids or other performance enhancing drugs now or in the future. Since the program is not trying to conduct a "witch hunt" we will not be asking the players for any information regarding any previous use of these substances."
Alfonso Soriano Trade Possibilities
Ken Rosenthal’s latest article mentions that a trade of Alfonso Soriano could happen, but Nationals are more likely to offer Soriano a long-term deal to convince him to become an outfielder. I don’t doubt Rosenthal, but let’s take a look at some possible suitors for the second baseman. I’ll assume that a trade signifies no position change.
First off, let’s narrow the field by looking at which teams lack an established 2B.
Blue Jays – Looks like Aaron Hill is the man at second base for 2006, and he’s a fairly solid hitter already. Plus, Soriano probably isn’t Ricciardi’s type of player.
Mariners – Jose Lopez will get the nod entering this season, and he slugged .505 during a couple of stints at Triple A. Giving him a full-time shot makes way more sense than trading for Soriano.
Marlins – Obviously the Fish aren’t dealing for Sori.
Mets – The Mets have made all sorts of splashes this winter, and adding a 2B isn’t top priority. They’d like to cut their losses with Matsui, but Jeff Keppinger and Anderson Hernandez are viable in-house candidates.
Cubs – The Cubs have a three-headed monster at second base, and Soriano probably doesn’t fit into the budget at $12MM+ over several years. The Cubs have a tradition of free swinging, and I could see Hendry trying this for 2006 if A)The Nationals win their arbitration case and/or eat some salary and B)the price is low.
Cardinals – St. Louis seems content with a battle between Junior Spivey and Aaron Miles for the 2B job. Plus, Soriano doesn’t seem like the typical St. Louis team player.
Padres – They’re going to let Mark Bellhorn, Eric Young, and Josh Barfield have a crack at 2B. Plus, I can’t see how Soriano would fit into the budget.
Of course, the Nationals already had an established 2B when they traded for Soriano, so maybe this isn’t the best guide. Rosenthal’s suggestion that Soriano will stay put is entirely logical once you break down the potential trade partners. If a deal was struck, it’d mostly be a salary dump and I think the only teams with mild interest would be the Cubs and Mets. Just my opinion.
The Marlins Could Surprise You
In the midst of my player projections for the 2006 Roto Authority Fantasy Baseball Guide, I realized just how stacked the Marlins are with young talent. If fire sales didn’t leave fan bases in ruins, Florida’s strategy of trading every veteran at once for top prospects could become a blueprint for success.
Now, the Fish might still have a hard time topping .500 in 2006. But so did the Tigers, Mariners, and Giants in 2005, and those clubs spent a big chunk of change on free agents and old guys. As the signings get worse every year, I’m starting to question whether signing a major free agent is ever a good move. Except for the rare superstar in his prime (Vlad), most free agent acquisitions end poorly.
Let’s take a look at the Marlins’ 2006 lineup.
C – Josh Willingham – He’s been ready for a starting job in the Majors since 2004. Hit an incredible .324/.455/.676 in 219 Triple A at-bats this year. If his hitting remotely resembles that line, any defensive ability Joe Girardi can instill is gravy.
1B – Mike Jacobs – He can fill in behind the plate as well. Hit 36 HR between Double A and the Majors in ’05. He’s at least a 20 HR stick in the bigs. With Jason Stokes pushing towards the big club, one of these guys might have to learn to play LF.
2B – Dan Uggla – At 25, this guy is too old to be a prospect. But on a team with nothing to lose, he deserves a crack at the job after hitting .297/.378/.502 in Double A.
SS – Hanley Ramirez/Josh Wilson/Alfredo Amezaga – Give ’em all a shot, see who sticks. There’s no pressure in the 8th spot in the Marlins’ order. Amezaga looked tolerable in 185 Triple A at-bats this year.
3B – Miguel Cabrera – A superstar at age 22. Need I say more?
LF – Chris Aguila – Another over the hill prospect who could stick if given the chance. Hit .355/.412/.630 in 138 Triple A at-bats after a passable showing in ’04.
CF – Eric Reed – Assuming the Fish don’t acquire Joey Gathright, Reed has drawn Juan Pierre comparisons. Baseball America said he may be "faster and a better defender" than Pierre. Hit .310/.335/.404 in with 17 steals 171 Triple A at-bats; could be ready to contribute by midseason.
RF – Jeremy Hermida – An early Rookie of the Year favorite. Hermida has ridiculous power and on-base skills at age 21, and is a legitimate 20/20 candidate for ’06.
I think a lot of Major League teams will put a much worse starting nine on the field every day than this. Sure, guys like Reed, Aguila, Ramirez, and Uggla might not be ready, but the Fish can still field a competitive lineup.
This post is getting a bit long, so I think I’ll leave the starting rotation for next time. I think the young group of starters could be more than serviceable next year, even without Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett.
Marlins Still After Gathright
Today, a source close to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays updated me on their efforts to trade Joey Gathright. The word is that the Marlins and Dodgers are the frontrunners, while the Rangers and Cubs are still "in the mix."
Three days ago, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com mentioned that the Marlins could send Scott Olsen to the Rays for Gathright. Gathright essentially is Juan Pierre, and the Marlins would have a formidable 1-5 in their order, believe it or not. Call me crazy, but the Fish are a few well-timed breakouts, reliever success stories, and a couple of miracles away from sniffing .500 in ’06. I know you’re probably bookmarking this story right now to disparage me at the end of the season for hinting that the Marlins could be a .500 team.
Anyway, it’s unclear to my source whether the Marlins actually offered Olsen for Gathright. He did mention that the Devil Rays like Olsen a lot, despite his late-season elbow inflammation. Olsen flashed huge strikeout potential in the minors, and jumped past Triple A this year to start four games for the Marlins.
The Dodgers’ interest probably hinges on Kenny Lofton‘s decision, as L.A. has an offer out to him. The Cubs seem an unlikely destination. Plugging in Gathright could result in a severely power-deficient outfield. Gathright would be a nice fit for Texas, and could score a boatload of runs fronting that lineup.