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Twins, Brewers Enter Offseason In Position To Spend

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Each year, our top ranking of the top 50 free agents and their projected contracts/destinations prompts many to raise an eyebrow. In the now five years that I’ve spent contributing to that behemoth of a post, though, I’m not sure I can recall a more unpopular pick with readers than the notion that Jake Arrieta could sign with the Brewers for what would be the largest free-agent signing in Milwaukee’s franchise history. The notion that the Brewers would win a bidding war isn’t one to which most are accustomed. Milwaukee signed Matt Garza to a four-year, $50MM contract prior to the 2014 season and has, at times, played in the second tier of free agency. But the Brewers are among baseball’s smallest markets, and placing Arrieta there admittedly felt odd even for us.

The question we kept asking, however, is: Why should it? The Brewers are one of two teams we kept coming back to that are in a position to act in a manner in which we’ve never really seen them act before. The other is just a five-hour drive to the west, in Minneapolis. I’m not suggesting that it’s a slam dunk that we’ll see the Brewers and Twins shatter their longstanding small-market perception; however, there’s an argument to be made for both teams to give serious consideration to spending far more aggressively this winter than they have in years past.

The 2017 season was a similar tale for both the Brewers and the Twins. Each club was largely written off heading into the 2017 season as they sought to continue rebuilding with an eye more toward 2018 and beyond than toward 2017. Last winter, the Twins’ biggest expenditure was a $24.5MM contract for veteran catcher Jason Castro. The Brewers spent $16MM on KBO reclamation project Eric Thames. The moves were not met with excessive fanfare.

But both the Brewers and Twins saw the majority of their young, potential core pieces take a step forward. Travis Shaw and Domingo Santana broke out with three-win seasons in Milwaukee, while Thames made good on his investment. Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson and Zach Davies led a surprisingly strong rotation, and Corey Knebel announced his presence as one of the best relievers on the planet.

Over in Minnesota, Byron Buxton rebounded from a terrible start and batted .274/.333/.452 over his final 459 PAs with elite defense. Miguel Sano hit 28 homers in 114 games before a stress reaction from a foul ball to the shin cut his season short. Eddie Rosario belted 26 homers, Jorge Polanco posted a 128 wRC+ in the second half, and Jose Berrios established himself as a useful big league starter. Joe Mauer even quietly rebounding to hit .305/.384/.417 (116 wRC+).

Suddenly, both teams look like potential contenders not just in 2018 but for the foreseeable future. The Twins share a division with the rebuilding White Sox and Tigers. The Royals are set to lose Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas to free agency after already having bid adieu to Wade Davis and Greg Holland in recent years. In 2018, at least, the AL Central outlook is promising for the Twins and the Indians.

Milwaukee will have to deal with the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates in 2018, but the Bucs had a tough season and will soon have to seriously entertain trade offers for both Andrew McCutchen (a free agent next winter) and Gerrit Cole (a free agent the following offseason). The Cardinals are expected to radically alter their roster after a pair of disappointing seasons. The Cubs have work to do on the pitching front. Any of those teams could contend next year.

One advantage that both the Brewers and Twins have over their division rivals, though, is a largely blank payroll slate moving forward. Even after arbitration projections, the Twins have just $85.5MM on the books for the 2018 season. After the coming year, that commitment drops to $24MM. Minnesota doesn’t have a single dollar committed to the books in 2020.

It’s an even more favorable situation in Milwaukee (at least as far as 2018 is concerned). The Brewers have just $55MM committed payroll (including arbitration projections) and $31.5MM of guaranteed cash on the 2019 books. The recent extension of Chase Anderson gives them club options over the right-hander for the 2019-20 seasons, and Milwaukee also holds a 2020 option on Thames. Ryan Braun is the only guaranteed contract on the 2020 ledger, and his front-loaded deal will call for just a $16MM salary that season. That wide-open payroll was a large reason that the Brewers were connected to Justin Verlander on the summer trade market; the injury to Jimmy Nelson perhaps only adds impetus to the pursuit of a significant hurler.

Further working in the favor of both traditionally low-payroll clubs is the fact that many of the big-market teams that typically dominate free agency are either taking a step back on spending in 2017-18 or figure to focus their spending on areas other than the Twins and Brewers, who both need pitching help. It’s possible to imagine scenarios where the best pitchers don’t generate feverish bidding frenzies — perhaps allowing surprise suitors to participate in the market in a more measured way than the Diamondbacks did with their sudden and massive outlay for Zack Greinke.

The Yankees, for instance, have bluntly stated that they plan to get under the luxury tax barrier in advance of the 2018-19 mega crop of free agents (featuring Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Clayton Kershaw, Craig Kimbrel and many others). The Red Sox’ primary focus seems like it’ll be on adding a significant bat to the lineup rather than adding arms. The Giants have often played at the top of the free-agent market, but they’re already on the cusp of the luxury tax threshold before making a single move. The Angels have money to spend but have already committed to Justin Upton and still need to add a pair of infielders. The Tigers won’t spend much this winter as they kick off an aggressive rebuild. The Rangers are attempting to scale back their payroll by $10MM or so. The Nationals surpassed the luxury tax line in 2017 and already have a pair of $25MM+ annual salaries in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.

There will still be large-market teams looking to spend, of course. The Cubs need to add at least two arms in the rotation and could conceivably target as many as three bullpen additions. The Dodgers have reportedly been aiming to gradually pare back the payroll but of course still figure to spend some money this offseason, even if this current front-office regime hasn’t made a habit of top-level free-agent expenditures. Even the Phillies, once one of the team’s highest-payroll clubs prior to this rebuild, could begin throwing some dollars around this winter now that several of their own young players (e.g. Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Nola, Aaron Altherr, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams) are showing promise at the big league level with others on the cusp.

That said, the Twins and Brewers nonetheless find themselves in the unique position of having pristine long-term payroll outlooks with a burgeoning young core carving out its foothold in the Majors. With several big-market teams likely to eschew massive contracts, they’ll have the opportunity to perhaps be unusually competitive when it comes to names for whom they’d traditionally be outbid. None of this is to say that Minnesota or Milwaukee should be considered the odds-on favorites to sign a Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, but it stands to reason that both could consider those types of moves far more closely than we’re traditionally accustomed to seeing. In fact, as I was finishing writing this piece, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported that the Twins are indeed expected to consider a run at top-tier names like Darvish, Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. And Brewers owner Mark Attanasio told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel in late September that the team’s financial flexibility may allow it to “punch a little bit above [its] weight.”

Trades will, as ever, factor into the decision-making process for both clubs this winter. Each still has a number of intriguing prospects despite the significant amount of graduations in recent years, and there’s something to be said for pursuing a controllable arm from the Rays, Pirates or Cardinals — organizations that possess multiple intriguing young pitchers that could conceivably be dangled on the trade market this offseason. However, those markets figure to be ultra-competitive, and part of the way in which the Twins and Brewers got to their current standpoint was by stockpiling young prospects and filling out their roster with that talent. Maintaining a quality pipeline of high-upside talent will remain a priority in both markets.

All of which leads back to the idea that the Twins, who haven’t topped $110MM in payroll since 2011, and Brewers, who have never opened the season with even a $105MM payroll, could be more aggressive than any would expect based on history. Some will roll their eyes at the notion, and it may prove in the end that neither lands a top-ranked free agent, but both Milwaukee and Minnesota are in excellent position to alter their image this offseason if they find an opportunity to their liking.

Latest On Shohei Otani

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2:23pm: There’s a “tentative understanding” in place simply to extend the prior posting regime for another year, Sherman reports. The MLBPA has yet to weigh in on the subject, though, and there’s still not a final deal in place.

1:31pm: In the wake of Shohei Otani’s decision to hire a MLBPA-certified player representative, it seems that there’ll be a renewed push to figure out a way to resolve the impasse that has threatened to derail his planned move to the majors. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s a sense that the move will help facilitate an agreement that all involved will approve.

Indeed, Otani’s reps at CAA are scheduled to “meet soon” with the player’s association to attempt to get on the same page in an effort to sort things out, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. That’s just the first step here, of course, as Otani and the MLBPA will still need to engage with Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball — the two entities that are primarily negotiating a new system governing inter-league player transfers.

The difficulties here are tied to two factors: first, MLB’s rules capping international bonuses on certain younger international free agents; and second, the expiration of the prior posting system. There was a time when Otani’s current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, might have auctioned Otani’s negotiating rights for something approaching or even exceeding nine figures while Otani might have commanded a guarantee of as much or more. Under the just-expired transfer system, the Fighters would at least have stood to receive the maximum allowable $20MM fee. But that’s no longer how things work.

The transfer rules currently under contemplation would do away with the (up-to) $20MM flat-fee approach in favor of one that would allow the NPB team to earn a percentage of the bonus the posted player negotiates. If Otani was free to seek his market value, that wouldn’t likely pose a problem. But his earnings are now severely limited; while he is evidently at peace with that, his would-be former team is obviously not enamored of the possibility of losing its best player for what would be relative peanuts.

Under MLB’s current international rules, MLB clubs can’t go past their international spending pools (as supplemented via trade) to sign Otani. Those are even more limited than might be realized, though, due to teams’ preexisting commitments with young international players. (This was already known, of course, though the details remained fuzzy.)

According to a report from the Associated Press, only six teams even have enough uncommitted pool space to offer Otani seven figures. The Rangers ($3.535MM), Yankees ($3.25MM), and Twins ($3.245MM) easily lead the way, with the Pirates ($2.2MM+), Marlins ($1.74MM), and Mariners ($1.57MM+) also have some money to spend — or, perhaps, to trade to a would-be Otani suitor. For someone who is expected to be an immediate and significant contributor at the major-league level, that’s a pittance no matter the precise amount. Of course, he’ll also have a chance to make significant income off the field and through a future extension or trip through arbitration.

Twins To Sell Michael Tonkin’s Contract To Japan’s Nippon Ham Fighters

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The Twins have sold the contractual rights of right-handed reliever Michael Tonkin to the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (Twitter links).

The move will benefit both sides, as it clears a 40-man roster spot for the Twins and gives Tonkin the opportunity to land a significantly larger payday than he’d have received in the United States; he’ll sign a two-year, $2.1MM contract with the Fighters, per Berardino. The Wasserman client will also have the opportunity to earn an additional $500K worth of “reachable” incentives, and he’ll have the chance to serve as the Fighters’ closer as well.

Tonkin, 28 later this month, was one of the top-rated relief prospects in the Twins’ system for several years but has yet to capitalize on that promise in the Major League level. He’s received multiple opportunities with the Twins, appearing for the big league club in each of the past five seasons but never seizing a permanent session in the club’s bullpen. In 146 1/3 innings with the Twins, Tonkin has pitched to a 4.43 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.54 HR/9 and a 39.9 percent ground-ball rate. He has, however, consistently dominated the Triple-A level, pitching to a 2.41 ERA with 10.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 through 160 1/3 innings.

The move will subtract yet another player from the Twins’ 40-man roster and, according to Berardino, net the Twins more than $500K in addition to the 40-man spot. In the past week, the Twins have lost left-hander Randy Rosario to the Cubs, outfielder Daniel Palka to the White Sox and left-hander Nik Turley to the Pirates (all via waivers). Once Tonkin’s move to the Fighters is complete, Minnesota’s 40-man roster will stand at 33 players. Major League teams have until Nov. 20 to set their 40-man roster in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft, so the Twins could yet shed another player or two in advance of that deadline to clear room for additional prospects to be protected.

Outrighted: Twins, Phillies, Rays, Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers, Pirates

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A variety of teams cleared 40-man space today. Some of the moves are reflected elsewhere on the site, but we’ll round up the others right here:

  • The Twins have outrighted catcher Chris Gimenez and left Ryan O’Rourke, as MLB.com’ Rhett Bollinger tweets. Gimenez could have been retained for a projected $1MM arbitration salary, but Minnesota elected not to commit that much cash (and a roster spot) despite Gimenez’s 225 plate appearances of roughly league-average hitting in 2017. He tells Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer that he’ll likely elect to return to the open market, but would be open to a return (links to Twitter). As for O’Rourke, he was said to be exploring ways of hastening his return from Tommy John surgery, but Minnesota isn’t willing to gamble on the lefty’s recovery at this time.
  • Infielder Pedro Florimon and righty Jesen Therrien are now free agents after being outrighted off of the Phillies 40-man, per a club announcement. The 30-year-old Florimon has made his way onto a major league roster in each of the past seven seasons, compiling a .209/.269/.308 slash in 791 plate appearances but providing enough with the glove to keep earning return trips. The 24-year-old Therrien was knocked around in 15 relief appearances for the Phils this year, but did turn in 57 1/3 frames of 1.41 ERA ball (with 10.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9) during his time in the upper minors.
  • The Rays outrighted catcher Curt Casali, outfielder Cesar Puello, and righty Shawn Tolleson, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Casali played a bigger role on the 2016 MLB outfit and posted only a .698 OPS at Triple-A. The 26-year-old Puello has bounced around of late and struggled in a brief go at the bigs, but did manage a productive .327/.377/.526 slash in 379 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors (none of which came with a Tampa Bay affiliate). Tolleson required Tommy John surgery in May, so he’ll likely be looking for an organization to rehab with.
  • Departing the Cardinals’ 40-man were infielder Alex Mejia and catcher Alberto Rosario, according to MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter). Mejia struggled mightily in the bigs as a 26-year-old rookie, but slashed .291/.341/.413 in his 475 plate appearances in the upper minors. As for Rosario, who is thirty years of age, there just hasn’t been much opportunity for time behind the MLB plate.
  • Backstop Hector Sanchez and righty Tim Melville took free agency from the Padres after clearing outright waivers, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com (Twitter link). Sanchez, a 28-year-old switch-hitter who has seen action in each of the past seven MLB seasons, will surely be targeted as a depth acquisition by other organizations. Melville, who’s also 28, worked to a 2.95 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 76 1/3 Triple-A innings — his best results in the minors — but was bombed in brief MLB time.
  • The Dodgers outrighted first baseman/outfielder O’Koyea Dickson, as J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets. Dickson, 27, briefly touched the majors in 2017 but spent the bulk of his time at Triple-A for the third-straight season. After putting up big numbers there in 2016, Dickson managed a career-best 24 home runs over 458 plate appearances in his most recent campaign, but slipped to a .328 on-base percentage.
  • Finally, the Pirates outrighted lefty Dan Runzler, MLB.com’s Adam Berry reports on Twitter. He’ll head back to free agency after refusing an assignment. Runzler, 32, made it back to the majors after a four-year absence, but only saw four innings in eight appearances. He pitched to a 3.05 ERA in 41 1/3 Triple-A innings, managing only 7.8 K/9 against 4.8 BB/9 but also generating typically strong groundball numbers.

Pirates Claim Nik Turley From Twins

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The Pirates announced on Monday that they’ve claimed left-hander Nik Turley off waivers from the Twins.

The 28-year-old Turley made his big league debut with the Twins this past season on the heels of excellent work in Triple-A, though he didn’t fare well in Minneapolis. Turley was rocked for 22 runs on 30 hits and eight walks with 13 strikeouts in 17 2/3 frames as a big leaguer, resulting in an 11.21 ERA. However, he tore through Double-A and Triple-A, pitching to a 2.02 ERA with 12.1 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 in 92 innings (most of which was spent at the Triple-A level).

Turley becomes the third player the Twins have lost to waivers in the past week. Fellow left-hander Randy Rosario was claimed by the Cubs on Friday, while outfield prospect Daniel Palka was claimed by the White Sox a couple of days later.

Twins Name Derek Shelton Bench Coach

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The Twins announced that they’ve hired veteran coach Derek Shelton as the new bench coach to manager Paul Molitor. Minnesota’s bench coach position became vacant when Joe Vavra joined Ron Gardenhire’s coaching staff in Detroit.

Shelton, 47, has a long track record as a big league coach and a minor league manager. The former catcher coached and managed in the Yankees’ minor league ranks in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Since that time, he’s spent a half decade as the Indians’ hitting coach (2005-09) and seven seasons as the Rays’ hitting coach (2010-16) before joining the Blue Jays as a quality control coach in 2017. Shelton’s time with the Indians briefly overlapped with that of current Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey, though Falvey had not yet climbed the organizational ranks with the Indians by the time Shelton left.

The 2018 season will be Shelton’s 14th season as a coach at the Major League level and his first as a bench coach. He’ll join first-year pitching coach Garvin Alston on a slightly revamped Twins coaching staff that will once again be guided by Molitor, who inked a three-year extension with the club last month.

White Sox Claim Daniel Palka

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The White Sox have claimed corner outfielder Daniel Palka from the Twins, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter). He was placed on outright waivers as part of Minnesota’s 40-man roster-trimming efforts.

Palka has been regarded as a bat-first prospect of some note, but has not yet received a shot at the majors. A former third-round pick who just turned 26 years of age, he looks to be a fairly interesting target for the rebuilding South Siders.

Power is Palka’s calling card, as he swatted 34 long balls in the upper minors in 2016. But he is also known for his swing-and-miss proclivities and did not have a terribly strong 2017 campaign. Over 362 Triple-A plate appearances on the year, he pared back on the whiffs (22.1% strikeout rate) but posted only a .278/.330/.444 slash with 13 dingers.

Twins Outright Niko Goodrum

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The Twins have outrighted infielder/outfielder Niko Goodrum, as MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger tweets. He has already cleared waivers, but it appears that he will be eligible for minor-league free agency.

Goodrum, 25, received his first brief taste of the majors in 2017 but spent most of the season at Triple-A. He slashed .265/.309/.425 over 499 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors, with a carer-best 13 home runs. Goodrum has featured mostly as an infielder, but saw quite a bit of action in the outfield last year as the Twins seemingly sought to boost his versatility.

Cubs Claim Randy Rosario From Twins

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The Cubs announced that they’ve claimed left-hander Randy Rosario off waivers from the Twins. Chicago’s 40-man roster count now sits at 33 players.

The 23-year-old Rosario was rocked in his big league debut with the Twins this past season (eight runs in 2 1/3 innings) but has been considered among the team’s 20 to 30 best prospects in recent years. A hard-throwing lefty out of the Dominican Republic, Rosario’s performance has deteriorated as he’s ascended through Minnesota’s minor league ranks. This past season, he tossed 57 1/3 innings with a 4.08 ERA and 7.1 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 with a 50.9 percent ground-ball rate in Double-A.

To Rosario’s credit, he was dominant at the Double-A level through the season’s first half. However, he collapsed in significant fashion from late July through season’s end, yielding 19 earned runs on 31 hits with a 13-to-11 K/BB ratio in his final 17 2/3 frames at the Double-A level.

Miguel Sano To Undergo Leg Surgery

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The Twins announced today that slugger Miguel Sano will undergo surgery on his left leg on Nov. 13. Sano missed most of the final six weeks of the season after suffering a stress reaction in the leg upon fouling a ball into his shin. Though he returned to play in a few games at season’s end, he ultimately was not deemed healthy enough to be on the club’s roster for the AL Wild Card game. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger tweets that the surgery will insert a titanium rod into Sano’s leg and is expected to come with a six- to eight-week recovery timeline.

Sano, 24, belted 28 home runs and hit .264/.352/.507 through 483 plate appearances as Minnesota’s primary third baseman in 2017. Though he took steps forward in terms of average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, strikeouts continue to be an issue for Sano, who whiffed in nearly 36 percent of his plate appearances this past season. He also walked at an 11.2 percent clip and has done in 12.3 percent of his big league plate appearances, so he should continue to post solid OBP marks even if the strikeouts persist.

The Twins will count on Sano to help anchor a lineup that will enter the 2018 season with much different expectations than the 2017 club carried. He joins Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler as part of a young nucleus of Twins talent that is expected to make up the core of the team for the foreseeable future.

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