Twins Rumors

AL Central Notes: Lynn, Twins, Hahn, Jay, Indians

By Steve Adams | March 6, 2018 at 9:00pm CDT

The Twins’ recently reported two-year offer to Lance Lynn was for a total of $20MM, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Lynn’s camp considered that offer a “non-starter,” however, according to Berardino. Minnesota remains open to adding a starter on an affordable and relatively short-term pact, Berardino continues, noting that outside of the team’s $100MM+ offer to Yu Darvish, all of their offseason free-agent dealings have been at one- or two-year terms. He adds that the Twins aren’t aggressively pursuing Alex Cobb, and given Lynn’s apparent unwillingness to consider a two-year term, it seems unlikely that Minnesota will ultimately be a landing spot for any of the top three remaining starters. There are still a few intriguing names on the market who could sign shorter-term deals, including John Lackey and Trevor Cahill, though the Twins haven’t been strongly tied to any of them.

Twins Have Not Approached Brian Dozier About Extension

By Steve Adams | March 6, 2018 at 7:42pm CDT

Brian Dozier has emerged as one of the faces of the Twins’ franchises in recent years, but he’s now on the precipice of free agency and has not been approached by the team about a contract he tells Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. Dozier is earning $9MM this season in the final season of a four-year, $20MM contract which bought out all of his arbitration seasons. A new contract, though, does not look to be in the cards at this time, according to the infielder himself.

“I don’t want to touch too much on this, it’s the thing that gets asked all the time, but at the same time, I will be a free agent this fall,” Dozier said to Souhan. “That’s the bottom line. You can only say you want to be here so much, and nothing gets done.”

Dozier has, as he implied, stated on multiple occasions that he hopes to remain in the Twin Cities for the long haul. The lack of a spring extension certainly doesn’t preclude that from happening, though in-season negotiations are rarer, and his quality track record would figure to generate interest from multiple clubs next winter. While many Twins fans may hope for some late-developing negotiations, Dozier’s comments don’t lend much reason for optimism.

“I’ve said I wanted to stay here since forever, but I’ve really vocalized it the last couple years,” said Dozier (via Bollinger). “But I just don’t think it’s in their future, from what I’ve been told. … It’s pretty much black and white from what I’ve been hearing, which is upsetting, but you turn the page and play to win.”

A former eighth-round pick out of Southern Mississippi, Dozier debuted as a largely unheralded prospect and solidified himself as a quality regular before breaking out in recent years as one of the game’s most powerful second basemen. Over the past two seasons, the 30-year-old has slashed .269/.349/.522 with 76 homers, and he’s hit a total of 104 long balls over the past three seasons. He’s been a durable source of production in Minnesota as well, averaging 153 games and 686 plate appearances per year since his first full season back in 2013.

If the Twins are prepared to stick with internal options, they’ll have no shortage of intriguing up-the-middle players to turn to in the coming years. Jorge Polanco put together a huge two-month finish to the 2017 season and will open the ’18 campaign as Minnesota’s primary shortstop, though scouting reports have suggested that second base is his best position. Former top 10 pick Nick Gordon is on the cusp of MLB readiness and could occupy one of the two middle-infield slots in the near future. Royce Lewis, the top pick in the 2017 draft and Wander Javier, who received a $4MM bonus on the international market from the Twins, are further down the line but are viewed as potential key infield pieces in the long term.

Of course, going that route would likely weaken the Twins’ chances in 2019 when the team further hopes its young core has come into its own in an AL Central that’ll still have at least two rebuilding clubs (Royals, Tigers). That’ll all be factored into the ultimate decision of chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine, to be sure. One element that seems clear is that a lack of commitment to Dozier wouldn’t stem from payroll limitations; the Twins have just four players under contract for the 2019 season and somewhat remarkably don’t have a single dollar on the books in 2020 and beyond.

Dozier will turn 31 in May, meaning any new contract — be it an extension or a free-agent deal — would begin with his age-32 season. Dozier, Daniel Murphy and DJ LeMahieu will headline next year’s crop of free-agent second basemen, where they’ll be joined by a quality utility option also capable of playing second base in the form of Marwin Gonzalez.

Twins, Byron Buxton Reportedly Interested In Extension

By Connor Byrne | March 4, 2018 at 9:01pm CDT

The Twins and center fielder Byron Buxton have mutual interest in a contract extension, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic. The two sides have discussed a new pact, Bowden hears (Twitter link), though Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press tweets that there’s “no traction yet on a multiyear deal.” Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN adds that “no deal is close” (via Twitter)

The Twins aren’t in any imminent danger of losing the 24-year-old Buxton, who’s controllable for the next four seasons. He’s slated to play his final pre-arbitration year in 2018, during which he’ll attempt to build on a breakout season. An integral component of a Twins team that unexpectedly won 85 games and earned a wild-card berth in 2017, Buxton accounted for 3.5 fWAR on the strength of world-class defense, tremendous baserunning and a passable bat.

As a defender, Buxton finished first in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric (25), third in Defensive Runs Saved (24) and seventh in Ultimate Zone Rating (9.9). Offensively, Buxton posted a below-average 90 wRC+ (.253/.314/.413 in 511 PAs), but he was hugely effective at the plate in the second half of the season and also cut his strikeout rate significantly compared to 2016 (35.6 percent to 29.4). When Buxton did get on base last year, he made life miserable for the opposition. Not only was Buxton caught just once on 30 steal attempts, but he led the majors in FanGraphs’ BsR metric.

If 2017 is an indication of what’s to come from Buxton, he’ll continue to be a cornerstone for the Twins, which is what they had in mind when they selected him second overall in the 2012 draft. Buxton continued to draw major fanfare after the draft, but he was overmatched during a 138-PA debut with Minnesota in 2015 and then struggled offensively during the first half of 2016.

Although Buxton has hardly been consistent offensively, his speed and defense combine to give him a high floor. As such, even if he never puts it together at the plate over a full season, he figures to continue serving as a valuable player. It’s no surprise the Twins seemingly want him around for a while, then, and if they do continue seeking a long-term pact, recently extended center fielders Ender Inciarte (Braves) and Odubel Herrera (Phillies) stand out as somewhat comparable.

Both Inciarte (2.157 years) and Herrera (2.000) had similar service time to Buxton’s 2.064 when they received extensions last winter. And like Buxton, Herrera was entering his final pre-arb season and had four more years of control left. Inciarte also had four years remaining, but he was already about to go through arbitration for the first time. His deal bought out three potential free agent years, whereas Herrera’s bought out two.

Unfortunately for Buxton, both Inciarte and Herrera had shown more offensively at the time of their extensions. Inciarte, who was 26 when he signed, landed a five-year, $30.525MM guarantee after hitting .292/.337/.385 (95 wRC+) with 13 home runs, 56 steals and 9.5 fWAR over the first 1,586 PAs of his career. Herrera, who was approaching his 26th birthday, reeled in roughly the same guarantee as Inciarte (five years, $30.5MM) after slashing .291/.353/.419 (110 wRC+) with 23 homers, 41 steals and 7.7 fWAR in 1,193 PAs.

To this point, Buxton has taken 980 trips to the plate and batted a less-than-stellar .237/.295/.406 (84 wRC+) with 28 HRs, 41 steals and 4.6 fWAR. But if you discount a disastrous promotion in 2015 in which Buxton logged an unsightly batting line (.209/.250/.326, 53 wRC+) and accounted for minus-0.6 fWAR, you have a player who has been worth 3.9 fWAR per 600 PAs. That happens to be in lockstep with the pre-extension figures Inciarte (3.6) and Herrera (3.9) recorded.

AL Notes: Orioles, Machado, Twins, Rays

By Connor Byrne | March 4, 2018 at 7:58pm CDT

It doesn’t appear Orioles general manager Dan Duquette is planning to initiate extension talks with contract-year shortstop Manny Machado. “I would never say never, but we’re going to be more focused on ’18 than beyond,” Duquette told Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. “I don’t really know what’s going to happen beyond that.” Machado, Duquette, manager Buck Showalter, center fielder Adam Jones and relievers Zach Britton and Brad Brach are all scheduled to become free agents after the season, leading Duquette to admit to Feinsand that 2018 will be the last hurrah for this particular Orioles core. If he stays the GM into 2019, Duquette hasn’t closed the door on spending in free agency next winter, but he also isn’t dismissing the idea of a rebuild. Regarding a potential teardown, Duquette offered: “There is some logic toward doing that, right? You get the premium picks in the Draft and they can become the core players for your next championship club. A lot of this is timing; it’s cyclical.”

AL Central Notes: White Sox, Moustakas, CarGo, Twins, Tigers

By Connor Byrne | March 4, 2018 at 6:08pm CDT

The latest out of the AL Central…

The White Sox have recently been linked to a pair of high-profile free agents in third baseman Mike Moustakas and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, but there’s “very little, if anything” to suggest they’re truly interested in either player, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. As things stand, the Pale Hose are projected to enter the season with Yolmer Sanchez at third and Avisail Garcia, Leury Garcia and Nicky Delmonico at corner outfield/designated hitter – either of which could be spots for Gonzalez if the team does pursue him. However, general manager Rick Hahn suggested a couple weeks back that he’s content with the rebuilding club’s in-house DH choices.
The Twins aren’t in any rush to sign young right-hander Jose Berrios to a contract extension, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes. Berrios informed Berardino that the Twins haven’t approached him about a new deal, which makes sense considering they’re in no imminent danger of losing him. The 23-year-old won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 campaign, and then he’s slated to go through the arb process three times. While Berrios is already under Minnesota’s control for the long haul, he’d still understandably welcome the security of an extension. “This is the team that drafted me (in 2012) and gave me the opportunity to play in the major leagues,” said Berrios. “If they want to (sign) me for a long time, I’d be excited about that.” A first-round pick in 2012, Berrios endured a disastrous debut in 2016 (8.02 ERA, 7.65 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 in 58 1/3 innings), but he rebounded last year to log a 3.89 ERA with 8.59 K/9 and 2.97 BB/9 over 145 2/3 frames.
Trade interest in Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera has been nonexistent, even though they’re “willing to assume some of the financial burden” of his contract, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Given that Cabrera owns one of the majors’ most onerous deals, doesn’t play a premium position and posted a shockingly poor 2017, his age-34 season, it’s no surprise he’s immovable. The future Hall of Famer is guaranteed a whopping $192MM through 2024, thanks to the eight-year, $248MM extension he signed in 2014. Cabrera was an MVP-caliber player when Detroit gave him that ill-fated pact, but he’s now coming off a season in which he batted a meager .249/.329/.399 with a noticeable power outage (16 home runs, .149 ISO) in 529 plate appearances.

Latest On The Top Remaining Free Agent Starters

By Steve Adams | March 2, 2018 at 12:44pm CDT

The Nationals reportedly remain open to adding to their roster before the season begins, and while they’ve been oft-linked to top remaining free agent Jake Arrieta, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports that the Nats “haven’t engaged with Arrieta’s camp recently.” The Nationals, it seems (much like the rest of baseball), would be likelier to jump into the fray if Arrieta’s price drops.

Castillo does note that at least three other clubs have made recent inquiries with Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras. One of those is likely the Phillies, who are reported to have an ongoing dialogue with Boras regarding Arrieta. However, most reports out of Philadelphia suggest that the Phils are loath to go beyond three years for the former NL Cy Yong winner, who will pitch this season at age 32 and has displayed some signs of decline in recent years — most notably a loss of velocity and worsened K/BB rates.

Alternatives for the Nats, Phillies and other clubs searching for rotation upgrades are still on the market in the form of Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, who both remain unsigned. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes, however, that the Phils are even less likely to sign Cobb or Lynn to a long-term deal than they are Arrieta (and again reports that the Phils don’t want to go past three years for Arrieta). Even a contract in the vicinity of Tyler Chatwood’s three-year, $38MM pact with the Cubs could be too rich for the Phillies’ tastes when it comes to Lynn and Cobb, Zolecki writes.

It seems that virtually every club in need of rotation help is awaiting the asking price on the top three starters to drop. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweets that both Cobb and Lynn are still seeking guarantees worth more than $50MM. (It’s worth pointing out that the manner in which that report frames draft compensation is inaccurate; the draft/international penalty for signing any of Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn is not tied to that $50MM figure, but a deal of $50MM or more would improve the compensation for the teams losing those players.)

The Orioles, Brewers, Phillies and Twins all hold varying levels of interest in Cobb and/or Lynn, Bowden notes, but not at the current asking price. The Twins’ level of interest in Lynn doesn’t appear to be especially high at this point, though. While Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN walks back a recent report a bit by tweeting that Minnesota’s offer to Lynn was for more than the $12MM he initially reported, he adds that it was nonetheless well shy of anything his camp considered and that there are no current talks between the two sides.

Market Notes: Upton, Archer, Realmuto, Holland, Lynn

By Jeff Todd | March 2, 2018 at 12:09am CDT

Over at The Athletic, Pedro Moura held a fascinating conversation with Angels slugger Justin Upton. (Subscription link.) There’s plenty of interest in the chat, though Upton’s comments on free agency are of particular interest and relevance. The thrust of his sentiment is that teams seem to be looking to score free-agent value rather than identifying and “courting” players they actively wish to employ. “Teams don’t value players as people anymore,” says Upton. “They value them as a number on a sheet of paper.”

Of course, Upton forewent a chance at returning to the open market by agreeing to a deal with an organization he was comfortable with. Here’s the latest on the unusually high number of quality free agents still not in camp and other market notes:

The likelihood remains that the Rays will enter the season with Chris Archer on the staff, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports among other notes. That’s due in no small part to the team’s lofty asking price; one rival executive suggests that the Tampa Bay front office “wanted our whole farm system” to move Archer. The club has given that impression publicly, too. Senior VP of baseball ops Chaim Bloom reiterated that the expectation is to hang onto Archer and others in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). He added that the internal expectation is that it will begin to reap the rewards of an effort over recent years to bolster the farm depth while still trying to compete at the MLB level.
It has remained interesting to consider whether the Nationals might pry catcher J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins. But there isn’t much recent indication of serious talks, and Heyman indicates that’s due to what seems to be a big gulf in the sides’ valuations. Washington won’t give top prospects Victor Robles and Juan Soto, per the report; while the club might part with young infielder Carter Kieboom or outfielder Michael Taylor, it seems Miami was asking for too much additional talent to be included in a package.
The outfield market has certainly delivered some surprises thus far. Heyman says Jarrod Dyson spurned an early two-year, $14MM offer, though a source tells MLBTR that is not accurate. Dyson ultimately signed for $7.5MM with the Diamondbacks. It remains to be seen what’ll happen with players such as Carlos Gonzalez and Jon Jay, each of whom were rated among the fifty best free agents this winter by MLBTR. Heyman says the Indians are still looking at right-handed outfield bats, though it would surely be a surprise for the team to plunk down any meaningful money to make an addition. Perhaps the trade route could still hold some surprises, though that’s pure speculation on my part.
Veteran reliever Greg Holland might have overplayed his hand in spurning the Rockies earlier in the winter. Colorado was willing to give him something approaching the three-year, $51MM deal the team ultimately inked with Wade Davis, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests in an appearance on the podcast of Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. It’s premature, perhaps, to declare that Holland won’t be able to top that number, though it’s frankly difficult to see where that level of interest might come from — as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has recently explained.
Holland’s list of suitors is in question at the moment. One thing that seems clear, per Heyman, is that the Cubs aren’t planning on making a surprise run at the closer. Rather, Chicago seems largely committed to utilizing Brandon Morrow in the ninth inning and is likely to hold back its remaining payroll reserves for potential mid-season additions.
So, how low could the remaining pitchers go? Presumably there’s a point at which some bidding would occur. But it’s notable that, per ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson (podcast link), the Twins expressed interest in Lance Lynn in the range of just $10MM to $12MM over two seasons. Just how that level of interest came about and was expressed isn’t clear. The team has also made some fairly notable recent commitments and may just not have much more payroll flexibility. And it certainly shouldn’t be taken as evidence of Lynn’s current market value. Still, it’s interesting to learn that’s the current extent of Minnesota’s interest.

AL Central Notes: Wood, Twins, White Sox

By Steve Adams | March 1, 2018 at 1:58pm CDT

The Tigers announced that lefty Travis Wood, who is in camp as a non-roster invitee, left his debut with a sprained left knee today. Wood suffered the injury in a rundown and, per MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery, was “writhing on the ground” before eventually managing to limp off the field (Twitter link). Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets that Wood was on crutches in the clubhouse following the injury. Wood, who was released by the Padres this offseason, was in competition either for a rotation or bullpen spot, though today’s injury certainly doesn’t bode well for his chances of doing so. More information on his status figures to be available after the game.

AL Central Notes: Morrison, Royals, Gonzalez, White Sox

By Steve Adams | February 28, 2018 at 6:17pm CDT

Newly signed Twins DH Logan Morrison received an offer from his hometown Royals before signing in Minnesota, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. The 30-year-old slugger said earlier in the offseason that he’d love to suit up for his hometown club, though that was before Kansas City began selling off pieces and made clear signals of a rebuilding effort. Per Berardino, Morrison’s desire to play for a contending club took priority. Morrison will join the heart of a young Twins lineup on the upswing in hopes of reaching the postseason for the first time in his career, though the questions that permeate the Twins’ rotation still leave Cleveland as a the division favorite.

Nationals Still Weighing Additions; Angels, Twins Likely Done

By Jeff Todd | February 28, 2018 at 1:13pm CDT

With Spring Training in full swing and several recent signings taking a few more players off of the free-agent board, much of the offseason picture is finally now in focus. Of course, as MLBTR’s 2017-18 MLB Free Agent Tracker shows, there are still some big names available. Several organizations clearly also have unfinished business, while others may already feel they’ve addressed their needs or maxed out their resources.

Here are some notes on teams’ plans on the day before the calendar flips to March:

The Nationals are still eyeing improvements, according to a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). In particular, the Washington front office “remain[s] engaged” with the top remaining free agent, starter Jake Arrieta. But it seems that he’s not the sole player of interest, as the organization is said to be “monitor[ing]” the market for possibilities. It is worth noting that several other remaining free agents could fit the Nats rather comfortably on paper, potentially including other starters such as Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, top reliever Greg Holland, and catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Of course, there’s no real indication whether any of those players are presently seen as options within the Nationals organization.
Quite the opposite impression is being given by the Angels, as Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group tweets. GM Billy Eppler says that the organization is “not looking to pursue anything” else after a busy winter, though he does note that he’s “open-minded to things that come around.” That certainly sounds more like a willingness to entertain bargain-rate signings than any kind of interest in pushing for another significant addition. The Halos could clearly stand to improve their pitching, though it also may be that the front office prefers to allow existing options to rise or fall before addressing any needs at the trade deadline. At present, the Angels seem to have around $25MM in payroll space before bumping against the luxury line, though the organization is surely also loath to add too much to the future balance sheets.
It seems the Twins also feel their roster-building work is done, with chief baseball officer Derek Falvey telling reporters including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link) that there’s a “high likelihood” the team has already compiled its Opening Day unit. Minnesota did make quite a few acquisitions over the winter, including recent moves for Jake Odorizzi and Logan Morrison that added fairly significant salary commitments for the 2018 season. Some have wondered whether another rotation piece would make sense, but that doesn’t seem to be in the plans at present. Minnesota is slated to open with a club-record $116MM+ payroll, though the organization had already been in nine figures to open each of the past three years.

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