- Despite possessing options at first base and DH, the Twins are keeping tabs on right-handed hitters in that market in the event that a bargain arises. Minnesota has the well-compensated but declining Joe Mauer at first base as well as former KBO superstar Byung Ho Park and switch-hitter Kennys Vargas as options at first and DH. Mauer’s full no-trade clause and $23MM salary means he won’t be going anywhere, and Park’s contract is affordable enough that it makes sense to see if he can rebound after a strong start to the 2016 season was derailed by a wrist injury that ultimately required season-ending surgery. Vargas, meanwhile, has shown flashes of potential (particularly as a right-handed hitter) but has yet to cement himself in the Majors. Rosenthal’s report meshes with recent rumors that have connected the Twins to Jose Bautista, though it seems that Minnesota is only open to jumping into that market at a certain price point. It strikes me as unlikely that any of Bautista, Trumbo or Mike Napoli would see his market reach that point.
[SOURCE LINK]
Twins Rumors
Twins Notes: Dozier, Bautista
While the Brian Dozier saga has been a drawn out process, it seems that the Twins and Dodgers have agreed to table talks for the time being. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press adds a bit more on the talks that never gained enough traction to push a deal across the finish line, reporting that Los Angeles wasn’t willing to part with any of Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler or Brock Stewart alongside top prospect Jose De Leon. L.A.’s refusal to deal Alvarez or Buehler has been previously reported, though Stewart’s name hasn’t been previously mentioned as a sticking point. As Berardino also adds in his column, Twins GM Thad Levine discussed the talks on Go 96.3 FM, explaining that a hard deadline in talks was never set. However, he also suggested that the Twins won’t be initiating further talks with the Dodgers. “The reality is there’s going to be a point in time in this offseason where we may stop initiating calls but we’re always going to pick up the phone and hear teams out,” said Levine.
Dozier, too, appeared on the show (audio link) and called the trade drama an “eye-opening experience,” adding that it was interesting to “[dig] deeper into how other clubs value you, how the Twins value you, and that kind of thing.”
- The Twins were somewhat surprisingly connected to free agent Jose Bautista yesterday, but La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that the Twins don’t have interest in the slugger. The link between the Twins and Bautista was never characterized as a strong one, as MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger reported that the Twins touched base with Bautista’s agent. They may well have done so out of due diligence — chief baseball officer Derek Falvey said yesterday that the club has an idea of a price point at which they’d be interested in every remaining free agent — and simply found that Bautista is still seeking more than they’d care to commit. Of course, the 36-year-old Bautista doesn’t seem like a great on-paper fit for a team in the Twins’ situation anyhow, though a team with a protected first-round pick (like Minnesota) could perhaps gamble on punting its second pick in the hopes of flipping Bautista this July for greater value.
Twins Agree To Minor League Deals With Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch
JANUARY 11: Tepesch would earn $1MM if he makes the MLB roster, while Vogelsong’s deal has a lower base rate with greater incentives, per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (via Twitter).
Berardino provides details on the Vogelsong’s contract, too. He’d earn at a $1MM base rate if he cracks the roster. In terms of incentives, he could take home up to $2.5MM if he earns and keeps a rotation spot for most of the year (30 starts), or as much as $1MM if he’s a stalwart in the pen (55 appearances, available in $200K increments). Though Vogelsong can opt out just before the start of the season, he won’t have any later opt-out opportunities if he ends up opening the year in the minors.
JANUARY 10: The Twins have agreed to minor league contracts with right-handers Ryan Vogelsong and Nick Tepesch, reports Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Both players will receive invitations to Major League Spring Training, Miller adds. Paul Roberts of WEEU radio in Reading, Pa. was the first to report that Vogelsong had reached a deal with Minnesota (Twitter link).
The 39-year-old Vogelsong struggled to a 4.81 ERA with the Pirates last year and missed a significant portion of the season after being struck in the face by a fastball during an at-bat against the Rockies. Vogelsong’s career looked to be in serious jeopardy, and he underwent surgery and spent two-plus months on the disabled list due the facial fractures he suffered in that incident. However, he was able to return to the diamond and make a dozen starts for the Pirates down the stretch.
While Vogelsong’s past two seasons have been somewhat discouraging (4.72 ERA in 217 1/3 innings), he was a key member of the Giants’ pitching staff in 2011-12 and turned in a very solid effort as recently as 2014 in San Francisco (4.00 ERA in 184 2/3 frames). Vogelsong’s best years in the Majors have all come in his second stint as a Major Leaguer; after being knocked around for several years and battling injuries early in his career, Vogelsong spent three seasons pitching in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball before an unexpected resurgence with the 2011 Giants. Since returning to the U.S., he’s turned in 875 innings with a 3.98 ERA, 7.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9/.
As for Tepesch, he’s a familiar commodity for first-year Twins GM Thad Levine. The 28-year-old broke into the Majors with the 2013 Rangers and made 39 starts for Texas from 2013-14 (plus three relief appearances). In that time, Tepesch logged a 4.56 ERA with 5.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and roughly league-average ground-ball tendencies. Shoulder issues prevented Tepesch from pitching in 2015 and ultimately led to surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome — the same surgical procedure that Twins righty Phil Hughes underwent this past summer. Tepesch split the 2016 season between the Triple-A affiliates for the Rangers, A’s, Royals and Dodgers, and he also tallied four big league innings for L.A. His Triple-A work resulted in a solid, if unspectacular 3.96 ERA with 4.8 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9.
Both Vogelsong and Tepesch will compete for jobs either in the Twins’ rotation (which seems unlikely) or possibly as a long man out of the bullpen. Minnesota currently projects to have Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson and Hughes as locks for the 2017 rotation (assuming Santana isn’t traded and Hughes is healthy). Candidates for the fifth spot include top prospect Jose Berrios, who struggled tremendously in his brief MLB look last year, as well as left-hander Adalberto Mejia and right-handers Tyler Duffey and Trevor May. Minnesota could also still strike up a trade that alters its rotation outlook as well; Brian Dozier has been the most talked-about trade candidate in recent weeks and could net the team an MLB-ready arm such as the Dodgers’ Jose De Leon. Alternatively, it stands to reason that Santana could draw interest from teams seeking veteran starters, which would obviously alter the rotation composition in Minnesota.
Falvey: Twins Open-Minded To "Unconventional" Free Agent Additions
- Earlier today, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger reported that the Twins have met with Jose Bautista’s agent and are doing their due diligence on the top bats left on the market. That obviously raised an eyebrow or two, and chief baseball officer Derek Falvey explained to KSTP’s Chris Long that the Twins aren’t ruling out any opportunities this winter (video link). Falvey was asked specifically about the report linking the Twins to Bautista, and while he sidestepped a specific comment on the longtime Blue Jays star, he didn’t rule out that type of addition, either. “We’ll continue to monitor all potential avenues for players, whether it’s free agents or trades,” said Falvey. “…For every potential free agent that’s out there, [GM Thad Levine], [assistant GM Rob Antony], me — our group — we have our list of everyone who’s still unsigned and values where we think it would make sense. I wouldn’t shut the door on any player out there right now, even if it was slightly unconventional.” Falvey added that the Minnesota front office “has [owner Jim Pohlad’s] blessing” to pursue free agent additions.
Twins, Dodgers At “Impasse” In Dozier Talks; Dodgers Expected To Explore Other Options
5:05pm: In a full column on the matter, Rosenthal adds to his initial report, noting that the Dodgers are now expected to circle back to the Rays and Tigers on respective trade targets Logan Forsythe and Ian Kinsler. (Kinsler has a no-trade clause, but his agent has previously told Rosenthal that he’d waive the protection in exchange for a contract extension.)
Both Forsythe and Kinsler are right-handed bats, which would fill a significant need for the Dodgers, who rated as the game’s worst offense against left-handers in 2016. Forsythe enjoyed a breakout season with the Rays in 2015 and had a strong (albeit slightly diminished) followup in 2016. Across the past two seasons, the 29-year-old has batted .273/.337/.444 with 37 homers and 15 steals.
Forsythe lacks the power of Dozier (who has homered 70 times in the past two seasons), but he’s comparable from a financial standpoint. Currently, Forsythe is set to earn $14.75MM in the next two years, although the $9MM value of his 2018 option could rise by as much as $1.5MM based on his plate appearances in 2017. He’ll earn $500K upon reaching 550, 600 and 633 plate appearances. With a comparable financial commitment but less power than Dozier, Forsythe could potentially be had for a lower asking price, although the Rays are still likely to ask for quite a bit in return.
Talks between the Twins and Dodgers could pick back up later this offseason, but for the time being, it doesn’t seem as if the two sides will continue talking. Rosenthal writes that the Twins want Dozier to have some increased peace of mind heading into the season, and that meshes with previous reports that cited similar reasoning behind Minnesota pushing for resolution one way or another.
1:35pm: The Twins and Dodgers are at an “impasse” in their discussions over second baseman Brian Dozier, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Minnesota could still hold further discussions, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today also suggests via Twitter, but it seems that the sides are at a standstill for the time being.
Meanwhile, there’s another intriguing thread to the Dozier saga, courtesy of MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. He says that the Twins have had at least some talks with the representatives for free agent slugger Jose Bautista, as well as other prominent open-market hitters. Particularly if Dozier remains in the fold, it seems, the Twins could perhaps make a slight pivot in their offseason strategy to take advantage of a tantalizing arrangement of power bats still available to the highest bidder.
In a sense, of course, the news on Dozier isn’t new. We’ve been told for some time that the Dodgers were largely standing on their offer of young righty Jose De Leon for the veteran, with the teams bargaining over the additional pieces. While Los Angeles was said to be willing to kick on some more prospect assets, perhaps those pieces aren’t viewed as significant enough to move the ball for Minnesota.
It seems there’s still some opening for talks to continue, but we are at the end of the roughly one-week period within which Minnesota was reportedly set to make a decision. The club has put out the word that it doesn’t intend to drag out negotiations over the rest of the spring, due at least in part out of respect for Dozier. Of course, the organization likely also would like to move on with alternative approaches in the event that Dozier is to remain on hand for at least the first half of the upcoming season.
Brian Dozier To Braves A "Long Shot"
- Though this week’s report that Brandon Phillips nixed a trade to the Braves (via FOX’s Ken Rosenthal) lends some credence to recent connections between Atlanta and Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press circled back with a source that characterized a Dozier-to-Atlanta deal as a “long shot” (Twitter link). It continues to appear as if the Dodgers are the only team that currently has a strong enough need to consider meeting Minnesota’s price for its excellent second baseman.
Dodgers Willing To Give Multiple Prospects In Dozier Swap
- While there has been a suggestion that the Dodgers won’t form a package around Jose De Leon to pry Brian Dozier from the Twins, preferring instead to pursue a one-for-one deal, Rosenthal writes that Los Angeles is “willing to include other prospects” to get something done. Of course, it could well be that the issue isn’t so much the inclusion of some other pre-MLB players — surely, the Dodgers could find some expendable pieces to part with — so much as the question whether any are seen by Minnesota as adding significant value.
Twins Sign Jim Miller, Leandro Castro To Minors Deals
- The Twins signed veteran right-hander Jim Miller to a minor league deal, per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (Twitter link). The 34-year-old was a solid member of the Athletics’ bullpen back in 2012 (2.59 ERA in 48 2/3 innings) but has seen scarce MLB action since — most recently with the Yankees in 2014. Miller has a 3.48 ERA in 67 2/3 innings as a Major Leaguer and figures to head to Triple-A as a depth option for the Twins following a very strong showing in the independent Atlantic League last year. Miller fired 25 shutout innings and posted a 24-to-2 K/BB ratio for the Somerset Patriots.
- The Twins also added another player from the indy circuit, purchasing the contract of outfielder Leandro Castro from the Can-Am League’s Rockland Boulders, as the Boulders announced yesterday. The 27-year-old Castro, a former Phillies farmhand, saw his career sputter at the Triple-A level in 2013-14 but has turned in a consecutive pair of excellent seasons in independent ball. Castro hit .322/.364/.530 with 13 homers and 21 steals for the New Jersey Jackals of the Can-Am League in 2015 and batted a combined .316/.355/.524 between the American Association’s Laredo Lemurs and the aforementioned Boulders this past season. Though he never generated all that much prospect fanfare, Castro did rank in the back third of the Phillies’ top 30 prospects from 2009-11, per Baseball America. BA rated him 24th in the Phillies system prior to the 2012 season and pegged him as a fourth outfielder with solid-average speed but not enough bat to profile in a corner slot.
Resolution On Dozier Trade Talks Expected Soon
4:05pm: Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that the Twins are planning to wrap up talks one way or another out of respect for Dozier in the near future. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick notes that there’s agreement throughout the organization that it’s not fair to Dozier nor is it beneficial to the team to allow the uncertainty to drag out much longer. Both reporters note that there’s been no definitive deadline for a decision set by the team.
10:03am: Trade talks regarding star Twins second baseman Brian Dozier are expected to wrap up within the week, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). Whether and where he’ll be dealt remain to be seen, but it appears that Minnesota will make a final call well before the opening of Spring Training.
Last we heard, the Twins were said to asking interested organizations to place their final bids for the slugging second bagger. We haven’t heard any indication yet of how that effort is proceeding, but Morosi does note that the Dodgers (quite unsurprisingly) remain involved.
Indeed, it’s fair to wonder whether any other organizations are truly interested in making a competitive run at Dozier. If not, it may simply come down to a test of willpower (and baseball valuations) between the Minnesota and Los Angeles front offices.
So, what to make of this renewed indication that the clock is ticking on any move involving Dozier? Perhaps, it’s a negotiating tactic designed to drive the action and boost a possible return. But it could also legitimately suggest that the Twins’ front office is as torn on the subject as is the MLBTR readership; we may need to hold a recount of yesterday’s poll asking whether Dozier will end up changing hands over the offseason.
Of course, even if Dozier is still a Twin this time next week, it’s wise never to say never in the arena of player transactions. Spring Training injuries routinely open new avenues for trades, of course, or an organization can simply reevaluate its situation. As the stunning, Opening Day-eve Craig Kimbrel swap shows, deals can come together at just about any time.
MLBTR Poll: Will The Twins Trade Brian Dozier?
We’ve heard plenty over recent weeks about the Twins’ negotiations with rival clubs over star second baseman Brian Dozier. Minnesota reportedly asked interested suitors for their final offers in late December, but nothing more has emerged since (at least, not yet).
The Dodgers have been tied most heavily, and probably represent the cleanest fit. But the two organizations are said to be haggling over a complementary piece to accompany intriguing righty Jose De Leon, who’d seem to represent a worthwhile centerpiece. We’ve heard suggestions that the division-rival Giants could also be involved, though it has never been apparent whether San Francisco is fully engaged on Dozier. Likewise, the Cardinals and Nationals have been mentioned as possibilities, but it’s questionable at best whether either could represent a serious pursuer. There are a few other organizations that seem like hypothetical matches on paper, but we have yet to hear any suggestion of broader interest.
That’s hardly an optimal situation for the Twins, who would obviously prefer to see some bidding on a player who has compiled about 14 fWAR over the last three seasons and is owed just $15MM for his age-30 and 31 seasons. While it’s fair to wonder whether Dozier can maintain anything like the power surge he showed last year (.278 ISO, 42 home runs), he’s not dependent upon gaudy dinger tallies for all of his value. Dozier also rates as an outstanding overall baserunner and solid-enough up-the-middle defender, and has never slipped below league-average offensive production since establishing himself in the majors, so there’s a solid floor to go with his newly established ceiling.
All said, it would be hard for Minnesota to part with that package for anything less than what it deems to be fair value. If that can’t be found now, then perhaps the organization will just have to take Dozier into the season and take on the risks of waiting for a trade-deadline deal. That approach has paid off in some cases (Cole Hamels, Jonathan Lucroy) while backfiring in others (Tyson Ross). Ultimately, if the Giants aren’t willing to push the envelope, and no additional teams step into the fray, then this may simply turn into a staring contest between Derek Falvey and Andrew Friedman.
So, MLBTR readers, what do you think is most likely? Will the Twins strike a deal at some point in the coming weeks, or will Dozier still be at second base in Minnesota for the coming season (or, at least, part of it)? (Link for app users.)
