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Kyle Wright

Royals Notes: Marsh, Wright, Harvey

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Royals fans received some tough news today regarding their rotation depth. As noted by Anne Rogers of MLB.com, right-hander Alec Marsh has been shut down from throwing after the shoulder injury he’s been nursing all season did not respond well to his throwing progression. Meanwhile, Kyle Wright was scratched from his start for Triple-A Omaha yesterday due to tightness in his left oblique.

Marsh, 27, was a second-round pick by the Royals back in 2019 but did not make his MLB debut until the 2023 season. He wasn’t especially impressive during his rookie year, with a 5.69 ERA and nearly matching 5.70 FIP in 74 1/3 innings of work. He followed up that rather pedestrian performance in a swing role with a solid season as the Royals’ fifth starter last year, however. In 129 innings of work, Marsh posted a 4.53 ERA (92 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. That’s solid enough back-of-the-rotation production overall, Marsh’s season was more complicated than that.

The right-hander started off strong with a 3.63 ERA and 3.84 FIP in his first 12 starts of the 2024 campaign, but he surrendered 26 runs in his next 34 1/3 frames before being optioned down to Triple-A. After nearly a month in the minors, Marsh resurfaced down the stretch and posted a 3.90 ERA with a 4.76 FIP in his final six starts of the season. His up-and-down season left him on the periphery of Kansas City’s rotation mix and led the club to listen to offers on him early in the offseason. The Royals ultimately shipped Brady Singer out instead and kept Marsh in the fold, but the right-hander has been sidelined by shoulder soreness since the start of Spring Training.

Marsh has attempted to start up a throwing program multiple times since then, but has suffered setbacks each time and been forced to halt his progress. Marsh had progressed to throwing off the mound in this latest attempt at a comeback, but did not progress to facing hitters before he was shut down. He won’t throw for a couple of weeks yet and is scheduled to be re-evaluated on July 9, according to Rogers.

As for Wright, the right-hander has never appeared in the majors as a member of the Royals. He debuted in Atlanta all the way back in 2018 and spent parts of six seasons in the majors with the organization but various injuries led him to make just 60 appearances over those six years. 30 of those appearances were during his dominant 2022 season, when he posted a 3.19 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 180 1/3 innings en route to a tenth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting. He was once again set to be a fixture of the Atlanta rotation in 2023 but was sidelined by a shoulder issue that eventually required surgery.

He was swapped to Kansas City not long after undergoing the procedure, which would cost him the entire 2024 campaign. He’s yet to make it back to the majors, as he was optioned to Triple-A earlier this week following a lengthy rehab process. Unfortunately, the aforementioned oblique tightness knocked him out of what would have been his very first post-rehab start. Rogers writes that Wright is expected to head to Kansas City for an MRI on Monday, and that the Royals will determine next steps from there. Wright has struggled to a 5.48 ERA in eight starts between Double-A and Triple-A this year, but some amount of rust was to be expected given his nearly two-year layoff from pitching. If Wright’s oblique issue doesn’t set him back even further, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the righty make his Royals debut later this year.

In more positive news, MLB.com notes that right-hander Hunter Harvey is making progress as he works his way back from a teres major strain. Harvey went on the shelf in early April and isn’t expected back until August, but he’s nonetheless poised to take a big step in his rehab process tomorrow when he takes the mound for what is expected to be a “light” throwing session. Despite the fact that it sounds like he won’t be throwing at full strength at this point, much less to hitters, taking a mound at all is a major step for a pitcher who has been limited to playing catch so far in his rehab. Harvey was a major acquisition by the Royals last summer but has thrown just 11 innings for Kansas City since the trade, including 5 1/3 frames this year.

Royals Option Kyle Wright

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The Royals announced today that right-hander Kyle Wright has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Omaha. He had been pitching on a rehab assignment but the club has decided to have him stick in the minors a while longer, as opposed to adding him to the big league roster.

As of a few years ago, the idea of optioning Wright to the minors would have been a huge surprise. In 2022, he made 30 starts for Atlanta, going 21-5 and logging 180 1/3 innings. He had a 3.19 earned run average, 23.6% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 55.6% ground ball rate. He then tossed six shutout innings in his lone playoff start of that year. He finished 10th in National League Cy Young voting.

It’s been rougher sledding since then. He only tossed 31 innings in the 2023 season due to shoulder issues which eventually required surgery. The Royals acquired him ahead of the 2024 season, even though they knew he was likely to miss all of that campaign. He eventually did miss that entire season while the Royals paid him $1.8MM. They agreed to pay him that same salary figure this year.

The hope was that Wright could potentially help them in 2025 and 2026 after recovering from his shoulder surgery, which hasn’t come to pass yet. His shoulder was still enough of an issue for him to start this year on the 15-day IL. He started a rehab assignment in early May but was pulled off that due to shoulder fatigue after just two starts. He restarted that rehab assignment on May 25th and has since made six starts, two at Double-A and four at Triple-A.

Rehab assignments for pitchers can last as long as 30 days, so Wright was coming to the end of his window, but his results in those rehab outings weren’t especially impressive. His four Triple-A outings resulted in a 6.23 ERA. He did strike out 23% of batters faced but also gave out walks at a 14.8% clip. Perhaps there’s still some rust to shake off or he’s still building strength. He averaged over 95 miles per hour on his fastball in 2022 but has only been at 92 mph at Triple-A so far this year.

The club’s current rotation likely played a role in the decision as well. Even with Cole Ragans on the IL, Kansas City’s starting group is quite strong. It’s anchored by a solid trio of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic. They have Michael Lorenzen as a solid back-end guy. Rookie Noah Cameron has a 2.08 ERA through his first eight big league starts.

The combination of the strength of that group and Wright appearing as though he still needs some fine tuning has seemingly blocked his path back to the majors for now. It makes for an interesting situation for the Royals with the deadline now just over a month away. Ragans may be close to a return by the end of July. If the rest of the group stays healthy, they may have a relative surplus of starting pitching. Trading away from that surplus would be dangerous, especially with the rate of pitching injuries in the modern game, but it could be a way for the club to add some more offense.

Wright came into this year with four years and 62 days of major league service time, 110 shy of the five-year mark. By my count he has added 88 days so far here in 2025, though the clock now stops ticking with this option. He is making a relative modest salary, as mentioned. If he doesn’t have a spot in the Royals’ rotation now and Ragans is coming back, perhaps they could consider making him available. Lorenzen is also one a one-year deal and likely wouldn’t be part of the club’s planned playoff rotation, so perhaps he could end up on the block as well.

This optional assignment could also impact Wright personally. As mentioned, he is still shy of five years of service. If he stays in the minors the rest of the year, it would delay his path to free agency, though he may end up a non-tender candidate in that scenario. He has just one option remaining and will be out of options next year if this assignment last 20 days or longer.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Kyle Wright Pulled Off Rehab Stint With Shoulder Fatigue, Continuing To Play Catch

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Kyle Wright’s first appearance with the Royals will wait a little longer than hoped. The team announced this evening that they’ve pulled him back from his rehab assignment in Double-A after Wright reported shoulder fatigue. The club specified that they believe it to be a minor setback, saying the “tentative plan” is for him to skip one or two starts before beginning a new minor league stint.

Wright discussed the issue with Anne Rogers of MLB.com, saying he felt some deltoid fatigue that resulted in a velocity drop during the second inning of his start on Wednesday. He framed it as more of a precautionary measure, saying he “just wanted to not do anything dumb” by pressing it. Rogers adds that Wright returned to Kansas City and continues to play catch, so he hasn’t been shut down from throwing entirely.

It doesn’t seem especially worrisome, though it’s notable given that Wright is working back from October 2023 shoulder surgery. He’d battled shoulder injuries throughout the ’23 season, his final year with the Braves. Kansas City acquired him a month later, knowing that he would spend the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list. It was a roll of the dice with an eye to this year, but Wright suffered a hamstring strain early in camp. He probably would have begun the season on the IL in either case, as the Royals have been cautious about overworking his shoulder.

Before the injuries, Wright looked like a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. He was the fifth overall pick in the 2017 draft. He struggled over his first handful of MLB opportunities before things clicked in 2022. Wright fired 180 1/3 innings of 3.19 ERA ball that year. He struck out an above-average 23.6% of opponents while getting ground-balls at a stellar 55.6% clip. He led the majors with 21 wins and finished 10th in NL Cy Young voting.

It’s unreasonable to expect that level of production after two-plus seasons lost to shoulder injuries. The Royals don’t need him to be anywhere near that good. They already boast arguably baseball’s best rotation. Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic form an excellent top four. Michael Lorenzen is a capable fifth starter. Once healthy, Wright could push Lorenzen into a swing role or move into the bullpen as a multi-inning arm.

Wright is making $1.8MM in his second year of arbitration, as the injury capped his earning power. He’ll be under affordable club control for next year before hitting free agency during the 2026-27 offseason.

Royals Recall Noah Cameron For MLB Debut

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April 30: The Royals have formally announced Cameron’s recall from Omaha. They’ve also reinstated infielder Tyler Tolbert from the bereavement list. Righty Jonathan Bowlan and infielder Nick Loftin were optioned to Triple-A in a pair of corresponding moves.

April 29: Left-hander Noah Cameron is listed as the Royals’ probable starter for Wednesday evening’s game against the Rays. He’ll go opposite Drew Rasmussen in his major league debut. Cameron was added to the 40-man roster last November, but Kansas City will need to recall him while making a corresponding active roster move involving a pitcher.

This would have been Cole Ragans’ turn through the starting five. The star southpaw was pulled early from his most recent start with left groin tightness. He’s evidently not ready to go on normal rest, but the Royals haven’t placed him on the injured list. Jaylon Thompson of The Kansas City Star reports that the team is optimistic that Ragans will not require an IL stint. He’s scheduled for a bullpen session in the coming days and could start one of the games during the weekend series against the Orioles.

The delay opens the opportunity for Cameron’s first major league call. The 6’3″ lefty was a seventh-round pick in 2021. He hadn’t pitched during his draft year at the University of Central Arkansas because of Tommy John surgery. Cameron has impressed since entering professional ball, emerging as one of the team’s better pitching prospects in the process. Baseball America ranked him eighth overall in the K.C. system during the offseason. BA credits Cameron with a plus changeup as the headliner of a solid, if not overpowering, four-pitch arsenal.

Cameron doesn’t have huge velocity. His fastball averaged 92 MPH during his Triple-A work last year. It’s closer to 93 this season. Cameron mixes his pitches fairly regularly. It has worked against minor league competition. He turned in a 3.08 earned run average with a near-28% strikeout rate between the top two minor league levels last season. He has been similarly effective through five starts with Triple-A Omaha this year. Cameron has fanned 30.3% of opponents while working to a 3.22 ERA across 22 1/3 frames. He has gotten ground-balls at a career-high 58.5% clip.

If Ragans does require an injured list stint, Cameron would probably be the top choice to step into the rotation. Assuming Ragans can avoid the IL, Cameron will likely head back to Omaha after the spot start. Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic and Michael Lorenzen round out the rotation. The Royals have been without Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright all season. Wright, who missed all of last season rehabbing shoulder surgery, is the closer of that duo to a return. Anne Rogers of MLB.com relays that Wright will begin a minor league rehab stint this week.

Royals Notes: India, Outfield, Wright

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The Royals seem to have avoided what could’ve been a brutal blow this evening when infielder Jonathan India exited the club’s game against the Guardians due to what the club later announced was a bout of right quad tightness. After the game, manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that the tightness India was suffering from was “mild” in nature but that it wasn’t loosening up throughout the game. The plan appears to be for Kansas City to further evaluate India’s status on Sunday, though Quatraro’s framing of the issue offers hope that a trip to the injured list may not be necessary.

India, 28, spent the first four seasons of his career as the regular second baseman in Cincinnati but was traded to the Royals alongside outfielder Joey Wiemer in a deal that brought back right-hander Brady Singer. Since arriving in Kansas City, India has split time between third base and left field while serving as the club’s leadoff hitter. He’s hit just .216/.333/.275 14 games into his Royals career, but his identical 13.3% strikeout and walk ratios showcase the strong plate discipline that the organization sought when they acquired India back in November. Given his previous track record of productivity and his lackluster .256 BABIP, it seems reasonable to expect the results to come with time over a larger sample size.

Those hopes of better offensive days in the future could be put on hold for the time being depending on how the club’s evaluation of India goes tomorrow. Should he require a few days off, or even a trip to the injured list, Maikel Garcia would likely step into his shoes at third base while some combination of Cavan Biggio and Drew Waters could be expected to handle India’s usual reps in the outfield. Speaking of the club’s outfield situation, veteran Mark Canha was placed on the injured list due to adductor strain earlier this week. Fortunately, Rogers notes that this issue has also been described by team officials as a relatively mild one, with Quatraro indicating that Canha should not take much longer than a minimum stay on the shelf due to the issue.

Canha was acquired by the Royals from the Brewers just before the season began after he signed with Milwaukee on a minor league deal but didn’t make the club out of Spring Training. While Canha wasn’t in a full-time role with the Royals prior to his injury, the 36-year-old veteran was making a strong case for more regular playing time as he slashed .357/.471/.500 across his first seven games with the club. Given the Royals’s overall lackluster production from the outfield both this year and last season, it would make plenty of sense for Canha to take on a larger role with the club once he rejoins the roster after his injured list stint is up. In the event that India requires an IL placement of his own, it’s even possible that Canha could fill in for him once the latter is back from his own trip to the shelf.

Sticking with more positive injury news, Rogers reported this evening that Kyle Wright is making progress with his throwing program in extended Spring Training. The right-hander threw two innings earlier this week before following the outing with a bullpen session to reach his pitch count goal. It was Wright’s first time pitching in a game in quite some time, as Wright missed most of the 2023 season and the entire 2024 campaign after undergoing surgery on his right shoulder. He was expected to be ready to go this spring, but was sidelined at the start of camp by a hamstring strain and has been working his way back ever since. Now that he’s back on the mound, Wright appears to be on solid pace to make his return to the big leagues (and his first start with the Royals since being acquired from Atlanta) sometime next month. Wright’s return would likely push veteran swingman Michael Lorenzen into a bullpen role, assuming the rest of the rotation remains healthy.

Royals Notes: Rotation, Cameron, Bowlan, Mitchell

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Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and the re-signed Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen project as the Royals’ top four starters, setting up a competition for the fifth spot between such pitchers as Kris Bubic, Alec Marsh, Kyle Wright, and Daniel Lynch IV.  However, MLB.com’s Anne Rogers writes that left-handed prospect Noah Cameron might also be on the radar as at least a depth arm, since Marsh (shoulder soreness) and Wright (hamstring strain) are both dealing with injuries.

Marsh’s right shoulder first began to bother him during his offseason ramp-up process, leaving the Royals taking a cautious approach to Marsh’s workload in spring camp.  Marsh did throw his first bullpen session of the spring on Friday, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be fully ready to go by Opening Day, given the slowed throwing progression.

In Wright’s case, his hamstring strain is thought to be mild in nature, though he’ll be delayed around a week in recovery.  It makes for a frustrating late development near what seemed to be the end of a much longer rehab process for Wright, who hasn’t pitched since September 2023 due to shoulder surgery.  Those shoulder problems also limited him to 31 innings during the 2023 season, so it has more or less been a two-year odyssey for Wright to return to form as a regular starting pitcher.

Bubic is now probably in the driver’s seat for the fifth starter’s job, yet he is being built back to a starters’ workload himself after a Tommy John surgery cost him most of the last two seasons.  Bubic was able to return to action last July and pitched well in a relief role, with a 2.67 ERA over 30 1/3 innings out of the K.C. bullpen.

All this uncertainty could open the door to a youngster like Cameron.  Rogers writes that the Royals have “reassured Cameron that he’ll be helping out in Kansas City at some point in 2025,” which would mark the 25-year-old’s MLB debut.  The club already showed some faith in Cameron by adding him to the 40-man roster last November, in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.

Cameron was a seventh-round pick for the Royals in the 2021 draft, and he made a great accounting for himself with a 2.32 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate, and 6.7% walk rate over 54 1/3 innings with Triple-A Omaha last season.  Baseball America ranks Cameron as the eighth-best prospect in the Kansas City farm system, describing him as “a finesse lefthander” with an interesting four-pitch arsenal, highlighted by a 60-grade changeup.  Cameron’s fastball touched the 96mph threshold last season but he generally throws the pitch in the early 90s, still getting good results due to “the deceptive life on the pitch and its good vertical carry.”

The Royals also signed veteran swingman Ross Stripling to a minors deal last week, adding to the list of rotation candidates.  One name not mentioned as part of the competition is Jonathan Bowlan, since Rogers says the Royals see the right-hander as a relief pitcher heading into 2025.  Using Bowlan as a reliever could allow K.C. to take better advantage of his one remaining minor league option year, plus Rogers writes that Bowlan’s stuff “probably ticks up in short stints.”

Bowlan has worked as a starter for most of his minor league career, but he came out of the bullpen in 19 of his 35 appearances in Omaha last season.  The splits were telling, as Bowlan had a 2.77 ERA in 26 relief innings and a 5.58 ERA across 80 2/3 innings as a starter, as well as a much lower walk rate as a reliever.

Since Bowlan’s walk rate had started to tick upward over his last couple of minor league seasons, this improved control is a particularly interesting sign.  Working as a reliever might also help Bowlan get more of a foothold in the big leagues, as his MLB resume consists of three appearances and 5 2/3 innings over the last two seasons, with Bowlan posting a 7.94 ERA in that small sample size.

In other Royals prospect news, one of Kansas City’s top minor leaguers hit a significant setback, as Blake Mitchell will undergo surgery to fix a fractured right hamate bone.  (Manager Matt Quatraro revealed the news to Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star and other reporters.)  Mitchell will need 4-6 weeks of recovery time, meaning Mitchell will miss the rest of spring camp, and will need to participate in extended Spring Training to make up for the lost prep time.  Hamate injuries aren’t usually too serious, yet it will cut into some important development time for the 20-year-old backstop.

Mitchell was the eighth overall pick of the 2023 draft, and was a fixture within the top-100 prospect lists this spring — ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked him highest as the 42nd-best prospect in the sport.  Mitchell is already considered a solid defensive catcher, and he hit .232/.368/.424 with 18 home runs over 486 plate appearances last season, almost all of which came at A-level Columbia.  Pundits are mixed on Mitchell’s future as a hitter, but he has solid power potential and some unusual strength on the basepaths for a catcher.  Despite a lack of speed, Mitchell still stole 26 bags in 33 attempts last year.

Royals, Kyle Wright Avoid Arbitration

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The Royals announced that they have avoided arbitration with right-hander Kyle Wright and also signed new deals with lefties Evan Sisk and Noah Cameron. Wright’s deal is for $1.8MM, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. The salaries for Sisk and Cameron haven’t been reported but they are pre-arb players and likely set to make something near the $760K league minimum.

Wright’s $1.8MM salary is the same he made in 2024. He missed the entire season while recovering from a shoulder surgery he underwent in October of 2023, still with Atlanta at that time. It was known that he wasn’t going to be a factor this year but the Royals traded for him anyway in a long-play move.

Under the arbitration system, a player’s salary almost never goes down, so the Royals had likely planned on something like this. Wright can be retained through 2026, so they have effectively committed $3.6MM over a two-year period to get his services in 2025, with a chance at keeping him around another year as well.

There’s risk coming off a notable surgery and lost season but Wright will be a bargain at those price points if he can get back to his 2022 form. That year, he tossed 180 1/3 innings across 30 starts for Atlanta. He allowed 3.19 earned runs per nine with a 23.2% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 55.6% ground ball rate. His shoulder problems limited him to a 6.97 ERA in 31 innings in 2023 before the surgery wiped out the entire 2024 campaign.

The Royals had a strong rotation this year but just traded Brady Singer to the Reds to get Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer. They currently have Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha in three rotation spots. Assuming Wright is healthy and back in form, he’ll be a strong candidate for a back-end spot. His competition will likely come from Kris Bubic and Alec Marsh. Bubic missed most of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery but returned this year and posted strong numbers out of the bullpen. Marsh had a solid 4.53 ERA at the back of the rotation in 2024, logging 129 innings.

Royals Acquire John Schreiber From Red Sox

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The Royals have acquired reliever John Schreiber from the Red Sox in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect David Sandlin, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Kansas City placed Kyle Wright on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Schreiber has a 27.4% strikeout rate over his 143 1/3 career innings in the majors, so missing bats has never been an issue for the 29-year-old.  Between some home run issues and a lot of bad BABIP luck, however, Schreiber had only a 6.28 ERA over 28 2/3 innings with the Tigers in 2019-20, and he pitched in only a single MLB game with the Red Sox in 2021.  The breakout came in 2022, as Schreiber had a 2.22 ERA over 65 relief innings for Boston while also delivering a 28.8% strikeout rate and an above-average 7.4% walk rate.

2023 was more of a challenge, in no small part because Schreiber spent time on the 60-day injured list due to a teres major strain in his right shoulder.  Schreiber still posted a respectable 3.86 ERA over 46 2/3 innings and had strong strikeout and barrel rates, though his walk rate spiked up to an ungainly 12.3%.  The sinker that was such a weapon for Schreiber the previous season was also less effective — batters had a .395 wOBA against his sinker in 2023, as opposed to a .245 wOBA in 2022.

An argument can certainly be made that the Red Sox might be selling high on Schreiber here, though it’s a risk Kansas City is willing to take for a reliever who is a few weeks shy of his 30th birthday and is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season.  Schreiber had a 2.12 ERA in 17 innings before his IL stint and a 4.85 ERA in 29 2/3 innings after returning, so the Royals might view the righty’s struggles as just a byproduct his injury layoff.  Should Schreiber get back to his 2022 form, K.C. suddenly has a big strikeout arm to deploy in high-leverage situations.

Today’s trade continues a very busy offseason for Royals GM J.J. Picollo, who has brought quite a bit of veteran talent to Kansas City in an effort to quickly turn around a team that lost 106 games last season.  Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo were the headline-grabbing rotation upgrades, but Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Nick Anderson, and now Schreiber have all joined a reworked bullpen.  Schreiber is a bit more of a longer-term add given his years of arbitration control, yet the Royals have put themselves in a position to either directly benefit on the field if these pitchers perform well, or to perhaps benefit in terms of having some trade chips at the deadline if K.C. again falls short of contention.

From Boston’s perspective, moving a solid reliever from Schreiber might not be well received at first by Red Sox Nation, given how the fans have been vocally unimpressed with the team’s moves (or lack thereof) this offseason.  Craig Breslow has made a lot of lateral moves in his first winter as the chief baseball officer, continuing the franchise’s recent bent towards adding younger talent rather than splurging on win-now stars.

Sandlin brings some intriguing potential to the table, as the righty (who turns 23 next week) has a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 32.38% strikeout rate in 68 2/3 career minor league innings.  An 11th-round pick for the Royals in the 2022 draft, Sandlin had his 2023 season cut short by a lat injury, and he made only two appearances at the high-A level before being sidelined.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked Sandlin as the fifth-best prospect in the Royals’ farm system, while The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked the righty seventh.  Baseball America was slightly more pessimistic in ranking Sandlin only 20th, but still felt Sandlin might develop into at least a good reliever based on his two primary pitches —- a high 90s fastball and a plus slider.  If his changeup and curveball can also develop, Sandlin can perhaps stick in the rotation, though he’s still something of a wild card considering that he hasn’t yet pitched much in pro ball.

MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith reported earlier this week that the Sox were open to offers for not just Schreiber, but also Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin.  With Schreiber now out the door, it remains to be seen if Boston is still willing to move either of Jansen or Martin, or if the Sox will stop short of a full-on bullpen overhaul.  Jansen or Martin are both free agents after the season and will be prime trade candidates at the deadline if the Red Sox aren’t in contention, so there has been speculation that the Sox might look to increase their return (and cut some salary) by dealing at least one of the veteran relievers now.

How Much Payroll Space Do The Braves Have Left?

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Earlier this month, Braves chairman Terry McGuirk and president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos both said the club would increase payroll relative to 2023, but it’s unclear exactly how much it will go up.

Since that time, the club has added some salary by signing right-hander Reynaldo López and acquiring left-hander Aaron Bummer from the White Sox. However, they also scrubbed money off the ledger by subtracting a larger number of players. The Bummer deal sent arbitration-eligible players Michael Soroka and Nicky Lopez to the Sox, as well as three others. Kyle Wright and Nick Anderson, both arb-eligible as well, were flipped to the Royals in separate deals, while Yonny Chirinos, Michael Tonkin and Kolby Allard were non-tendered. When MLBTR released arbitration projections in early October, the club had a class of 13 players in their arb years. Subsequent transactions have reduced that to just three: Max Fried, A.J. Minter and Huascar Ynoa.

All clubs do some roster trimming at this time of year but the extent of it from Atlanta has been notable, leaving them with just 31 players on their 40-man roster. The moves cut about $16MM in projected salaries, though the club added some money back on. López got $30MM over three years but backloaded fashion, as he’ll make just $4MM next year, followed by $11MM salaries in the two following seasons and a $4MM buyout on a club option. Bummer is making $5.5MM next year and then has a $1.25MM buyout on a $7.25MM club option for 2025, with another option after that.

Is all this typical shuffling? Or is Anthopoulos clearing payroll space for a big move? The club has been connected to some high-profile free agents like Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, so perhaps the money saved by sweeping out those arbitration salaries can be repurposed there. Nola has since re-signed with the Phillies but Gray is still out there, along with many other pitchers.

David O’Brien of The Athletic recently looked at the possibility of the club pursuing Gray and seemed to throw some cold water on it due to the competitive balance tax implications. The club was over the base threshold in 2023 and seems set to be a tax payor again in 2024, which comes with increasing penalties. Roster Resource currently has their 2024 payroll at $207MM but their CBT, which is based on the average annual value of contracts, is at $242MM. The base threshold is going to be $237MM next year, meaning the club is already over, before any theoretical deal for another starting pitcher. As a second-time payor, they will see their base tax rate go up from 20% to 30%, while every $20MM over the line comes with escalating surcharges.

RR has last year’s payroll at $205MM, so the 2024 figure seems to have technically increased already, even though this year’s CBT number is a bit of a drop from last year’s $246MM. If that is what the club had in mind when they planned on a payroll increase, that would likely disappoint fans who have dreamed of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto or other big free agents. Perhaps Anthopoulos still has a big move up his sleeve but O’Brien’s reporting seems to cast doubt on the resources he has to work with. If he is working under constraints, the club could always shed some more salary in order to pursue a big name free agent, perhaps by trading someone like Marcell Ozuna or Raisel Iglesias. The former will make $18MM next year with a $1MM buyout on a 2025 club option while Iglesias will make $16MM in each of the next two seasons. Ozuna has plenty of off-field issues that might limit his market, but for clubs willing to overlook those, he is coming off a strong season on the field.

Perhaps O’Brien’s reading of the situation is incorrect and the club actually has plenty of powder dry, but the apparent tight funds would correspond with some recent comments from Wright. He spoke with Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution this week, talking about the emotions he went through when he found out about the deal. He also relayed what Anthopoulos said to him when he called Wright to tell him that he had been traded.

“Pretty much that he had a number that he was given from up top, and that’s what he had to work with,” Wright said. “I definitely wasn’t the only one. There were a lot of guys that were moved on from. That was the main thing, at least from what he told me, was just trying to clear out as much cap space as possible to get that number. He’s gotta do a job, too, try to improve the team however he can. Unfortunately, I wasn’t a part of it. But it is what it is sometimes.”

It’s entirely possible that Anthopoulos was just being polite in using the financials to explain the deal. Wright is set to miss all of 2024 due to shoulder surgery and perhaps the club is leery about his chances of recovering from that procedure but he didn’t want to say that. Though it’s also possible that the planned payroll increase isn’t massive and still requires the club to do some penny pinching.

So, is the club clearing out space for a big splash at Gray or some other pitcher? Or will there be more marginal moves from here? The club raised some eyebrows this week when it announced that López would be stretched out to start, a curious plan as he’s been so much better since moving to the bullpen in recent years. Perhaps that is their rotation addition for this offseason and Gray isn’t coming to Atlanta. Toscano asked Wright if he thought the club was just trying to cut its CBT number down or clear payroll space for a big splash. “I hope (it’s) the second,” Wright said. “I think that’s what the Braves should be doing, is trying to go make some big additions. I hope it’s the latter. I don’t know exactly which one. Only Alex knows that. Obviously, we’ll find that out more as the offseason goes along.”

Braves, Royals Swap Kyle Wright For Jackson Kowar

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The Braves have traded right-hander Kyle Wright to the Royals in exchange for fellow righty Jackson Kowar. Wright underwent shoulder surgery following the season and is expected to miss the entire 2024 campaign, though Kansas City will control him for two years after that.

Wright, 28, was the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and while he took several years to get there, he eventually broke out with a dominant showing in 2022. After posting a 6.56 ERA through 70 innings across parts of four seasons from 2018-21, Wright turned in a career-best performance in just about every capacity in 2022. Over the life of 180 1/3 frames, he logged a 3.19 earned run average with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate, 55.6% grounder rate and 0.95 HR/9.

That ostensibly set the stage for Wright to pitch near the top of the Atlanta rotation for years to come, but as is so often the case with pitchers, injuries intervened and changed his career trajectory. Wright reported shoulder soreness during spring training and opened the year on the 15-day IL. He returned in mid-April but was placed back on the injured list just three weeks later — this time eventually being moved to the 60-day IL. Wright returned for four September appearances and was hit hard while showing diminished velocity. He underwent surgery after the conclusion of the regular season and won’t be back on a big league mound until the 2025 campaign.

Overall, Wright’s 2023 season included just 31 innings of 6.97 ERA ball with strikeout, walk and home run rates that all trended in the wrong direction. He’s eligible for arbitration this winter and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.4MM in his first trip through the process. He’ll all but certainly make an identical salary in 2025 after sitting out the ’24 campaign and accruing a full year of service on the 60-day injured list. Kansas City is effectively acquiring two healthy years of Wright. That first season will more or less cost them $2.8MM (next year’s ~$1.4MM salary and a matching amount the following year). Wright will be on an innings limit of some kind in ’25 and ideally be built up to a full workload in 2026.

In return for this long-term upside play on Wright, the Royals will give the Braves six years of club control over Kowar — a former Florida Gators star, first-round pick and top prospect who’s yet to pan out in K.C. Kowar has one minor league option year remaining after being granted a fourth option due to injuries (hat tip to Bowman), but the 27-year-old has yielded 75 earned runs in 74 Major League innings across parts of three seasons. Suffice it to say, he’s a project and an upside play in his own right.

While Kowar clearly hasn’t had any big league success to date, he’s seen a pronounced uptick in velocity since moving to a bullpen role on a full-time basis. After averaging 95.7 mph on his heater as a starter in 2021, he averaged 97 mph in 2023. That’s impressive life, to be sure, but the pitch also has well below-average spin — and Kowar’s broader 10.7% swinging-strike rate across his entire arsenal is still slightly below league average. Kowar struck out 21.2% if his opponents in 2023 but also walked 14.6% of them — bringing his career walk rate to 13.7%.

The Braves clearly see something they like, however. Kowar ranked among Baseball America’s top-100 prospects in both the 2019-20 and 2020-21 offseasons and generally posted solid or better numbers throughout the minors up until the 2022 season. He’s been hit hard in Triple-A over the past two years, just as he has in the big leagues, but if the Braves can get him back to his pre-’22 form, they’ll have secured six years of club control over a hard-throwing bullpen arm.

Anne Rogers of MLB.com first reported the Royals were acquiring Wright for Kowar. Rogers’ colleague Mark Bowman first indicated that some type of deal involving Wright could be in the works.

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