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Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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Check out our previous offseason outlooks here.  Today let’s take a look at the 2009 Washington Nationals:

C – Jesus Flores – $400K
C – Wil Nieves – $400K
1B – Nick Johnson – $5.5MM (wrist surgery June ’08)
2B – Emilio Bonifacio – $400K
SS – Cristian Guzman – $8MM
3B – Ryan Zimmerman – $465K+
IF – Dmitri Young – $5MM
IF – Ronnie Belliard – $1.9MM
IF/OF – Willie Harris – $800K+
LF – Elijah Dukes – $400K
CF – Lastings Milledge – $403K
RF – Austin Kearns – $8MM
OF – Wily Mo Pena – $5MM club option or $2MM player option (shoulder surgery July ’08)

SP – Tim Redding – $1MM+
SP – John Lannan – $400K
SP – Jason Bergmann – $404K
SP – Collin Balester – $400K
SP – Shawn Hill – $402K (arthroscopic elbow surgery September ’08)

RP – Joel Hanrahan – $400K
RP – Garrett Mock – $400K
RP – Saul Rivera – $436K
RP – Jesus Colome – $1.25MM+
RP – Ryan Wagner – $450K+
RP – Charlie Manning – $400K
RP – Steven Shell – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Chad Cordero – $6.2MM, Ryan Langerhans – $500K+

The Nats have about $40MM committed for ’09 before arbitration raises.  After that they could be around $45MM (mainly due to Zimmerman and Redding).  The Nats entered the ’08 season at $55MM, so they can add a few free agents without increasing payroll.

Odalis Perez was a nice signing for around a million bucks; the Nats should re-sign him at a small increase or attempt to find a similar veteran to stabilize the rotation (they pursued Bartolo Colon last year).  Beyond that, they can just let guys fight it out.  Hill will try to stay healthy, Bergmann has potential (he was recently removed from the rotation).  Prospect Jordan Zimmermann looks interesting and nearly ready.  Redding could have value on the trade market, but there’s no rush to deal him.

Young and Kearns are the team’s worst contracts, and they’ll be near-impossible to move.  If everyone’s healthy next year, hopefully Manny Acta will ensure regular playing time for Dukes and Milledge.  Pena may choose to stick around for $2MM.

The bullpen is questionable, but it’d be best not to spend significant money there for a team not expected to compete.  Big-name free agents in general would be a mistake.  Last year the Nationals pursued Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones; neither would’ve been a good signing for them.  Hopefully Jim Bowden won’t become too obsessed with Adam Dunn this winter (assuming Bowden keeps his job).  Dunn doesn’t fit on this team. They’re in the beginning of a long rebuilding process.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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Here’s a look at the 2009 Orioles:

C – Ramon Hernandez – $8MM
C – Guillermo Quiroz – $400K
1B –
2B – Brian Roberts – $8MM
SS – Freddie Bynum – $400K+
3B – Melvin Mora – $9MM
IF – Brandon Fahey – $400K
IF – Luis Hernandez – $400K
LF – Luke Scott – $430K+
CF – Adam Jones – $400K
RF – Nick Markakis – $455K+
OF – Luis Montanez – $400K
DH – Aubrey Huff – $8MM

SP – Jeremy Guthrie – $770K+
SP – Daniel Cabrera – $2.875MM+
SP – Garrett Olson – $400K
SP – Matt Albers – $400K
SP – Hayden Penn – $400K

RP – George Sherrill – $980K+
RP – Jim Johnson – $400K
RP – Jamie Walker – $4.5MM
RP – Chris Ray – $445K+
RP – Dennis Sarfate – $400K
RP – Fernando Cabrera – $575K+
RP – Alberto Castillo – $400K

Other commitments: Brian Matusz – $870K, Adam Loewen –  $816K+, Danys Baez – $7.2MM, Jay Gibbons – $6.2MM

Non-tender candidates: Brian Burres, Lance Cormier

Other pitching staff candidates: Troy Patton, Radhames Liz, Kam Mickolio, James Hoey, Randor Bierd, Rocky Cherry, Brad Bergesen, Chris Waters, David Hernandez

Let’s just say the Orioles’ commitments will be under $75MM, even accounting for arbitration raises. Markakis should get the biggest raise, as he is arb-eligible for the first time.

No one knows what the Opening Day pitching staff will look like; Guthrie seems the only certainty in the rotation.  To me, the best solution is to just let all the kids battle it out in spring training.  No need to throw away $5MM+ on a veteran innings eater.  An exception: I’ve seen A.J. Burnett’s name tossed around by fans, and I see their point. He’d add respectability and could still be a good pitcher when the Orioles are ready to compete. It’s worth exploring.

Expendable veterans abound: Ramon Hernandez, Roberts, Mora, Huff, Walker, and Daniel Cabrera could all be moved this winter.  These guys aren’t part of the next competitive Orioles club.  The goal: acquire quality middle infielders and starting pitching, of course.  Andy MacPhail’s hauls from last winter inspire confidence.  In 2010 or 2011, the Orioles could be a few pieces away from contention and flush with cash.

Mark Teixeira’s name has also been bandied about as a possible offseason target.  While Tex is a very good player, I don’t see him as a once-in-a-lifetime guy who needs to be locked up before the Orioles are contenders.  The price will be astronomical and it just doesn’t seem to fit with the team’s current philosophy.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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Your 2009 San Diego Padres:

C – Josh Bard – $2.2375MM+
C – Nick Hundley – $400K
1B – Adrian Gonzalez – $3MM
2B – Matt Antonelli – $400K
SS – Khalil Greene – $6.5MM
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff – $410K
IF – Edgar Gonzalez – $400K
IF – Brian Myrow – $400K
LF – Chase Headley – $400K
CF – Jody Gerut – $700K+
RF – Brian Giles – $9MM or $3MM buyout
OF – Scott Hairston – $406K+
OF – Will Venable – $400K

SP – Jake Peavy – $11MM
SP – Chris Young – $4.5MM
SP – Cha Seung Baek – $400K
SP – Josh Banks – $400K
SP – Wade LeBlanc – $400K

RP – Heath Bell – $420K+
RP – Cla Meredith – $415K
RP – Clay Hensley – $410K+
RP – Justin Hampson – $403K
RP – Joe Thatcher – $400K
RP – Mike Adams – $400K
RP – Kevin Cameron – $400K

That’s $44.2MM committed, plus arbitration raises for Bard, Gerut, Hairston, and Hensley.  Maybe that’ll bring commitments to around $49MM.  This estimate includes them retaining Giles at $9MM.

ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Padres want to be in the $50MM payroll range for ’09, and Giles’ option will probably be declined.  The Padres could exercise his option and try to trade him, but Giles has 10-and-5 rights.

Olney also says the Padres will talk to Trevor Hoffman soon about a contract for ’09.  They might agree on $5MM or so, but then the Padres wouldn’t have room in the budget for Giles.

It’ll be a shame if the Padres slash payroll next year.  They were at $73.7MM in ’08; $20MM could buy a quality free agent or two for the rotation or infield.  2009 provides a nice window to field a competitive team in a weak division.  The salaries of Gonzalez, Kouzmanoff, Gerut, Peavy, Young, and Bell jump another $12MM or so in 2010.

If the Padres are so cost-conscious that they must discard an effective hitter like Giles, it may make sense to go all-in and sell off the young veterans too.  Gonzalez and Peavy are currently at peak value given their salaries, age, and performance.  Kouzmanoff and Young also have good trade value, though Greene is at a low point.

Note: two changes were made from the original post – information about Giles’ no-trade rights was added and Peavy’s ’09 salary was corrected.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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Let’s take a look at the ’09 Mariners.  They’ll have their new GM in place in time for the free agency period.

C – Kenji Johjima – $8MM
C – Jamie Burke – $435K
1B – Bryan LaHair – $400K
2B – Jose Lopez – $1.6MM
SS – Yuniesky Betancourt – $2MM
3B – Adrian Beltre – $12MM
IF – Tug Hulett – $400K
IF –
LF –
CF – Wladimir Balentien – $400K
RF – Ichiro Suzuki – $17MM
OF – Jeremy Reed – $400K+
DH – Jeff Clement – $400K

SP – Felix Hernandez – $540K+
SP – Erik Bedard – $7MM+
SP – Jarrod Washburn – $10.35MM
SP – Carlos Silva – $11MM
SP – Brandon Morrow – $400K

RP – J.J. Putz – $5MM
RP – Sean Green – $405K
RP – Mark Lowe – $400K
RP – Roy Corcoran – $400K
RP – Miguel Batista – $9MM
RP – R.A. Dickey – $400K
RP – Ryan Rowland-Smith – $400K

The Mariners have about $88MM committed, plus arbitration raises for Reed, Hernandez, and Bedard.  Not 100% sure on Reed’s eligibility.  We’ll estimate an additional $7MM in arb raises, bringing commitments to around $95MM.  The Mariners entered the season with a $117.6MM payroll.  That might mean $20MM+ to spend if they plan on being competitive in ’09.

The Mariners are 12th in OBP and 11th in SLG.  They’re 12th in starters’ ERA and 9th in reliever ERA.

This could be a tough club to rebuild, with a three-year window for Felix and several hard-to-move contracts.  Will a new GM step in and try to assemble a worst-to-first team for ’09?

I’m not sure why, but Johjima became a problem this year.  The best baseball move would be to eat most of the $24MM he has coming and try Clement and Burke behind the plate.  Not much can be done with the low-OBP middle infield; at least Lopez has been decent.  It may be difficult to upgrade on Beltre, so they should keep him unless a total rebuild is in order.

In the outfield, it’d make sense to flip Ichiro and Balentien.  Offensively the Ms are looking to fill the easiest positions – first base, left field, and DH.  They could take draft picks for Ibanez and consider high-OBP free agents like Jason Giambi, Milton Bradley, Manny Ramirez, Brian Giles, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Bobby Abreu.  Ideally, the Ms would dig up a high-OBP minor league veteran in the Dan Johnson/Brian Myrow/Josh Whitesell mold.

If you squint, you can envision a huge contract year from Bedard, more progress from Felix, and a breakout for Morrow.  The last two starting jobs could be determined on merit rather than salary, and a few bargain free agent pitchers could be signed as well.

Realistically the Mariners are not built to contend next year.  With Beltre, Washburn, Batista, and Bedard off the books after the ’09 season, it’d be logical to wait until then to remake the team (or trade these veterans for young players).  But the Mariners do have front-rotation pitching talent.  It would be interesting to see if a shrewd GM could wring a wild card out of it.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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We’re starting a new series for September/early October called Offseason Outlook.  It’s kind of a merger of past series (Needs and Luxuries, Team Outlook). 

Here’s how the 2009 Giants stack up (informed greatly by Lefty Malo):

C – Bengie Molina – $6MM
C – Steve Holm or Eliezer Alfonzo – $400K
1B – Travis Ishikawa – $400K
2B – Kevin Frandsen – $400K
SS – Emmanuel Burriss – $400K
3B – Pablo Sandoval – $400K
IF – Eugenio Velez – $400K
IF/OF – John Bowker – $400K
LF – Fred Lewis – $400K+
CF – Aaron Rowand – $8MM
RF – Randy Winn – $8.25MM
OF – Dave Roberts – $6.5MM
OF – Nate Schierholtz – $400K

SP – Tim Lincecum – $405K
SP – Matt Cain – $2.65MM
SP – Jonathan Sanchez – $400K
SP – Noah Lowry – $4.5MM
SP – Barry Zito – $18.5MM
SP/RP – Kevin Correia – $1.075MM+

RP – Brian Wilson – $400K
RP – Keiichi Yabu – $400K
RP – Alex Hinshaw – $400K
RP – Jack Taschner – $400K
RP – Merkin Valdez – $400K
RP – Billy Sadler – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Brad Hennessey – $1.6MM, Tyler Walker – $750K

Buyouts: Omar Vizquel – $300K

By my count, the Giants have roughly $64MM committed for the ’09 squad.  The entered the ’08 season with a $76.6MM payroll, so they’ll have $12-13MM to spend if they hold the line.

The ’08 Giants rank 14th of 16 NL teams in OBP and 15th in SLG.  Their starters rank 8th in ERA; their relievers 15th.  I know ERA has its flaws but there’s no need to get too crazy with stats here.

The infield above is just one possible scenario; all four positions seem wide open.  A veteran free agent would add stability; affordable possibilities include Rich Aurilia, Eric Hinske, Kevin Millar, Mark Grudzielanek, Nick Punto, and Adam Everett.  If Brian Sabean wants to spend some serious coin, he can consider Jason Giambi, Mark Teixeira, Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, and Joe Crede.  You have to figure the Giants acquire some kind of veteran infielder.  Aubrey Huff, Adrian Beltre, Mike Jacobs, Kelly Johnson, and Jorge Cantu could be trade targets.  They’ll probably add a reliever too.

A slugging infielder could also be targeted via trade, using a veteran outfielder or young pitching as bait.  With Tim Alderson and Madison Bumgarner in the pipeline, the Giants may consider shopping Sanchez.  His shoulder strain is a concern, but he’s due off the DL today.  The lefty, 26 in November, ranks fifth in the NL in K/9.  The Giants could pursue Brandon Wood, Reid Brignac, Dan Uggla, J.J. Hardy, Garrett Atkins, Kevin Kouzmanoff, or one of the Rangers’ catchers.

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