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Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Their setup for 2009:

C – Chris Snyder – $1.85MM+
C – Miguel Montero – $401K
1B – Chad Tracy – $4.75MM
2B –
SS – Stephen Drew – $1.5MM
3B – Mark Reynolds – $400K
IF – Augie Ojeda – $550K+
IF/OF – Chris Burke – $955K+
LF – Conor Jackson – $420K+
CF – Chris Young – $1.75MM
RF – Justin Upton – $1.3MM
OF – Eric Byrnes – $11MM
OF – Alex Romero – $400K

SP – Brandon Webb – $6.5MM
SP – Dan Haren – $7.5MM
SP – Doug Davis – $8.75MM
SP – Edgar Gonzalez – $411K+
SP – Max Scherzer – $1.075MM

RP – Chad Qualls – $1.3125MM+
RP – Jon Rauch – $2MM
RP – Tony Pena – $406K
RP – Yusmeiro Petit – $400K
RP – Doug Slaten – $401K
RP – Leo Rosales – $400K
RP – Billy Buckner – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Wil Ledezma – $620K+, Chris Burke – $955K+

The D’Backs have about $55MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Snyder, Burke, Jackson, Gonzalez, Qualls, and Ledezma.  A few of those guys could be non-tendered, keeping the D’Backs under $60MM.  They started ’08 at $66.2MM, though I believe the D’Backs take more of a long-term view toward payroll.  MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert figures they’ll have less than $10MM to spend.

The Diamondbacks were in the middle of the NL for OBP and SLG.  They have positional flexibility with Jackson, Reynolds, Tracy, and Byrnes, though only Jackson posted a strong OBP among those four. 

Looking at the market, it probably makes sense to put Jackson at first base and acquire a left fielder if possible.  Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Manny Ramirez are the top free agent left fielders.  Bobby Abreu could also fit.  However, these players will all cost more than $10MM a year.  GM Josh Byrnes says he’s more likely to hit the free agent market than make trades, since the D’Backs traded so many prospects in ’08.  Byrnes will have to find a bargain, maybe a Juan Rivera type.  The D’Backs also need a second or third baseman depending on where Reynolds plays.  There’s just not enough money unless payroll goes up.

The team’s pitching staff looks respectable, though losing Randy Johnson would hurt.  I can’t see how they can re-sign him and add an offensive player for a total of $10MM.  Scherzer will have to have a big year if Johnson leaves.  With Qualls, Rauch, and Pena, it seems the pen can withstand the losses of Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon.

It’s kind of awkward having Byrnes as the highest-paid player on the team, as he could end up the fourth outfielder if Jackson plays left.  With $22MM remaining on his deal (and a no-trade clause), the D’Backs would have to take on a bad contract in return.  Nick Piecoro had an interesting idea with Luis Castillo.

Once again the D’Backs will look to improve offensively mainly through development of their young players.  Young and Upton do seem poised for breakouts.  It also seems likely the D’Backs will make a few midseason trades as they did in ’08.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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The Indians are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Their likely commitments for 2009:

C – Victor Martinez – $5.7MM
C – Kelly Shoppach – $404K+
1B – Ryan Garko – $420K
2B – Asdrubal Cabrera – $400K
SS – Jhonny Peralta – $3.4MM
3B – Andy Marte – $400K
IF – Jamey Carroll – $2.5MM club option or $150K buyout
LF – Shin-Soo Choo – $400K
CF – Grady Sizemore – $4.6MM
RF – Franklin Gutierrez – $405K
OF – David Dellucci – $4MM
OF – Ben Francisco – $400K
DH – Travis Hafner – $11.5MM

SP – Cliff Lee – $5.75MM
SP – Fausto Carmona – $2.75MM
SP – Anthony Reyes – $400K
SP – Jeremy Sowers – $400K
SP – Scott Lewis – $400K

RP – Masahide Kobayashi – $3MM
RP – Rafael Betancourt – $3.35MM
RP – Rafael Perez – $407K
RP – Jensen Lewis – $400K
RP – Edward Mujica – $400K
RP – Tom Mastny – $400K
RP – John Meloan – $400K

Other rotation candidates: Jake Westbrook – $10MM (due back from Tommy John around All-Star break), Aaron Laffey – $400K, Zach Jackson – $400K, David Huff – $400K

The Indians are all about cost certainty – I don’t see any major arbitration cases coming up aside from Shoppach.  If they retain Carroll, they’ll have about $64MM committed.  The Indians entered this season with a $79MM payroll, so they could have $15MM to spend this winter.

The Indians were right in the middle of the AL with a .339 OBP and .424 SLG.  In the second half, though, the Tribe had one of the AL’s best offenses.  Overall the Indians had below-average offensive performances at first base, second base, third base, left field, right field, and designated hitter.

Choo’s encouraging performance indicates he might be able to hold down an outfield corner.  Matt LaPorta could take the other.  The Indians have to hope Hafner can become a useful hitter again, if not the offensive force of 2004-06.  The team seems likely to seek upgrades in the infield.  All four positions are fair game, as Peralta could be moved to third due to questionable defense at short.  Cabrera could move to short.

Possible free agent fits: Orlando Hudson and Rafael Furcal.  Many infielders may be on the trade market: Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Dan Uggla, Adam LaRoche, Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Mike Jacobs, Edwin Encarnacion, Garrett Atkins, Robinson Cano, Freddy Sanchez, and Rickie Weeks.  The Indians could use Shoppach as a trade chip, but only if they’re confident with Martinez behind the dish long-term.

The rotation is shaky after Lee, as Carmona had a terrible year and Westbrook will be out until midyear.  Carmona dealt with a strained hip for much of ’08; the Indians need him to regain his control next year.  Reyes and Lewis showed promise in small samples, but a shrewd veteran addition a la Kevin Millwood in ’05 would stabilize the rotation.  Freddy Garcia?  Bartolo Colon?  Randy Johnson, maybe?

The Indians are focused on importing a closer, though they may stick with Lewis if nothing works out.  Brian Fuentes could make sense, and the trade market might offer B.J. Ryan, Huston Street, and Kevin Gregg.

It will be a challenging offseason for Mark Shapiro, as the Indians have many needs.  A payroll increase could go a long way, though attendance doesn’t seem to support one.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Their probable commitments for 2009:

C – Ryan Hanigan – $400K
C – Wilkin Castillo – $400K
1B – Joey Votto – $400K
2B – Brandon Phillips – $4.75MM
SS – Alex Gonzalez – $5.375MM
3B – Edwin Encarnacion – $450K+
IF – Andy Phillips – $440K
IF – Jeff Keppinger – $403K
LF – Chris Dickerson – $400K
CF – Ryan Freel – $4MM
RF – Jay Bruce – $400K
OF – Norris Hopper – $403K
OF –

SP – Aaron Harang – $11MM
SP – Bronson Arroyo – $9.5MM
SP – Edinson Volquez – $400K
SP – Johnny Cueto – $400K
SP – Micah Owings – $402K

RP – Francisco Cordero – $12MM
RP – Jared Burton – $400K
RP – Mike Lincoln – $550K+
RP – Bill Bray – $400K
RP – Gary Majewski – $400K+
RP – Ramon Ramirez – $400K
RP – Nick Masset – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Matt Belisle – $1.25MM+

Other commitments: Yonder Alonso – $400K

Rotation candidates: Daryl Thompson – $400K, Homer Bailey – $400K, Ramon Ramirez – $400K

The Reds have roughly $54.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Encarnacion, Lincoln, and Majewski.  After that, they’ll still be under $60MM (with a fifth of the payroll going to the closer).  The Reds entered this season with a $74.1MM payroll, so they might have money to spend.

The Reds had a below-average offense this year, and the losses of Adam Dunn and perhaps Jerry Hairston Jr. may make things worse.  On the other hand, the Reds won’t give 1,200 plate appearances to Keppinger, Corey Patterson, and Paul Bako again.

Top two positions of concern: shortstop and center field.  After missing all of this season due to a knee compression fracture, can Gonzalez return to his ’07 form?  For lack of a better option, I have Freel penciled in at center.  However, he’s injury-prone and already on thin ice.  Maybe Drew Stubbs deserves a look.  Or the Reds could sign a free agent, maybe someone like Jim Edmonds (who can be useful if he doesn’t face southpaws).  Mark Kotsay could also work. A simpler solution, as many commenters below have noted, would be Dickerson in center and a free agent left fielder signed.

Encarnacion’s defense at third base is not pretty.  I would love to see Walt Jocketty make an aggressive offer for Adrian Beltre.  I’ll let you speculate on scenarios.

The Reds’ rotation has a chance to be excellent next year without outside additions.  Arroyo, Harang, and Cueto all posted ERAs above 4.60 in ’08.  However, Arroyo and Harang finished strong and Cueto was solid for a rookie.  Throw in Volquez and a healthy Owings and the Reds could be tough one through five.  Thompson and Bailey provide more depth than most teams can boast.

Bailey could be trade bait, perhaps offered to Texas for a catcher.  But the Reds intend to give Hanigan a shot, and I like that plan.  As for the excess cash, where to spend it?  I don’t see needs beyond a backup catcher and veteran center fielder.  I suppose some dough can be spent to re-sign or replace Jeremy Affeldt as the go-to lefty.  And maybe Hairston will re-up at a reasonable rate.  But if I’m Walt Jocketty, I’m only tinkering in my first winter as Reds GM (aside from the Beltre idea).  This team has sleeper potential.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Their likely commitments for 2009:

C – Gerald Laird – $1.6MM+
C – Taylor Teagarden – $400K
1B – Chris Davis – $400K
2B – Ian Kinsler – $3MM
SS – Michael Young – $16MM
3B – Hank Blalock – $6.2MM club option, $250K buyout
IF – German Duran – $400K
IF – Joaquin Arias – $400K
LF – David Murphy – $400K
CF – Josh Hamilton – $400K
RF – Nelson Cruz – $400K
OF – Marlon Byrd – $1.8MM+
DH – Frank Catalanotto – $4MM

SP – Kevin Millwood – $11MM
SP – Vicente Padilla – $12MM
SP – Scott Feldman – $400K
SP – Brandon McCarthy -$405K+
SP – Dustin Nippert – $400K

RP – Joaquin Benoit – $3.5MM
RP – Frank Francisco – $775K+
RP – C.J. Wilson – $418K+
RP – Josh Rupe – $400K
RP – Warner Madrigal – $400K
RP – Wes Littleton – $400K
RP – Kameron Loe – $411K+

Other commitments: Julio Borbon – $325K, buyout for Kaz Fukumori – $200K

Other rotation candidates: Kason Gabbard – $400K, Matt Harrison – $400K

If Blalock is retained, the Rangers have $62.8MM committed before arbitration raises to Laird, Byrd, McCarthy, Francisco, Wilson, and Loe.  So, payroll could near $70MM with the current group.  The Rangers had an opening day payroll of $67.7MM.

The Rangers had a league-leading offense this year, but also the AL’s worst pitching staff.  Pitching is clearly the offseason priority.

The Rangers have the game’s best catching surplus, with Laird, Teagarden, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Max Ramirez.  The Red Sox, Royals, Marlins, and Reds might be looking for help at the position.  It would not be surprising if Jon Daniels inquires on pitchers like Clay Buchholz, Zack Greinke, and Homer Bailey.  However, Jamey Newberg raises a good point – the ’09 rotation already has at least six viable candidates.  Standing pat with the catcher surplus this winter would not be a crime.

I’m not sure how they’d fit in, but maybe the Rangers will pursue reclamation projects like Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia.  Texas could also be an interesting longshot destination for C.C. Sabathia, if the Rangers are willing to raise payroll to secure their ace.

The offense has two question marks in Blalock and Milton Bradley.  Is it worth $6MM to give Blalock one more chance?  He’s having a strong September and could be used at first base or DH if necessary. 

Bradley presents a trickier decision.  He requires multiple guaranteed years, and he’s been an incredible offensive force this season.  He’s driving toward his first 500 plate appearance season since ’04, battling numerous injuries despite only playing 20 games in the field.  Does two years, $20MM plus incentives get it done?  Otherwise the Rangers might have to let their best hitter sign elsewhere.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Here’s a look at their 2009 commitments:

C – Chris Iannetta – $400K
C – Yorvit Torrealba – $3.5MM
1B – Todd Helton – $16.6MM
2B – Clint Barmes – $405K+
SS – Troy Tulowitzki – $750K
3B – Garrett Atkins – $4.3875MM+
IF – Jeff Baker – $403K
IF – Ian Stewart – $400K
LF – Matt Holliday – $13.5MM
CF – Willy Taveras – $1.975MM+
RF – Brad Hawpe – $5.5MM
OF – Ryan Spilborghs – $400K
OF – Seth Smith – $400K

SP – Aaron Cook – $8.75MM
SP – Jeff Francis – $3.75MM
SP – Jorge de la Rosa – $1.025MM+
SP – Ubaldo Jimenez – $400K
SP – Greg Reynolds – $400K

RP – Manny Corpas – $750K
RP – Taylor Buchholz – $400K
RP – Luis Vizcaino – $3.5MM
RP – Matt Herges – $2.5MM (club option; salary estimated)
RP – Jason Grilli – $420K+
RP – Ryan Speier – $400K
RP – Jason Hirsh – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Cory Sullivan – $1MM+, Willy Taveras – $1.975MM+

Other commitments: Mike Hampton – $6MM

That’s $77.6MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Barmes, Atkins, Taveras, de la Rosa, Grilli, and Sullivan.  Outfielders Taveras and Sullivan could be cut loose, but raises will still push payroll past $82MM.  The Rockies began the season with a $68.6MM payroll.

This should be an interesting offseason for Dan O’Dowd and company.  First there’s the Helton issue.  He’s owed $56.9MM for the 2009-11 seasons, so he’d be very difficult to trade.  Throw in the back problems and he’s basically immovable.

Helton’s injury status may make it harder to trade Atkins this winter.  Could Baker and/or Joe Koshansky handle first base if Atkins is traded and Helton is injured?  Perhaps.  The Rockies would like to move Atkins and his probable $7MM salary for a frontline starting pitcher, but his performance away from Coors has been poor.  If the offers are weak, Atkins may stay.

Holliday could be traded instead; his road performance is not problematic.  However, the Rockies will probably only trade Holliday if they can do so without hurting the ’09 team.  A package similar to the one the Twins received for Johan Santana would be surprising; O’Dowd instead went after Carlos Beltran this summer.

The Rockies’ offense could be solid in ’09 with the current group.  They could hope that Tulo and Atkins bounce back and give more playing time to Iannetta and Stewart.

For the rotation, the Rockies will probably add one veteran starter to their solid core of Cook, Francis, Jimenez, and de la Rosa.  Derek Lowe would be a great signing if they are willing to raise payroll (or find a reasonable trade for Atkins).  Losing Brian Fuentes will hurt the bullpen, but starting pitching is the more urgent need.  Perhaps Atkins can be traded for a quality reliever like Huston Street (just an example – the A’s may not be interested).

If the Rockies take payroll past $85MM, maybe they can lure a veteran like Lowe while retaining Holliday for an ’09 run.  That’d be my strategy.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Here’s what they have for 2009:

C – Brandon Inge – $6.3MM
C – Dusty Ryan – $400K
1B – Miguel Cabrera – $15MM
2B – Placido Polanco – $4.6MM
SS – Ramon Santiago – $575K+
3B – Carlos Guillen – $10MM
IF – Michael Hollimon – $400K
IF/OF – Ryan Raburn – $400K
LF – Matt Joyce – $400K
CF – Curtis Granderson – $3.5MM
RF – Magglio Ordonez – $18MM
OF – Marcus Thames – $1.275MM+
DH – Gary Sheffield – $14MM

SP – Justin Verlander – $500K+
SP – Jeremy Bonderman – $12.5MM
SP – Armando Galarraga – $400K
SP – Zach Miner – $410K
SP – Nate Robertson – $7MM

RP – Fernando Rodney – $1.7MM+
RP – Gary Glover – $1.075MM+
RP – Bobby Seay – $780K+
RP – Joel Zumaya – $420K+
RP – Aquilino Lopez – $400K
RP – Clay Rapada – $400K
RP – Freddy Dolsi – $400K

Other commitments: Edgar Renteria – $3MM buyout, Rick Porcello – $1.2MM, Dontrelle Willis – $10MM

The Tigers have about $115MM committed for 2009, not including arbitration raises to Santiago, Thames, Rodney, Glover, Seay, Zumaya, and Verlander.  So, they should be over $120MM with the current group.  The Tigers had an opening day payroll of $137.7MM in 2008.  Lynn Henning says to expect a drastic payroll reduction – "perhaps by $40 million or more."

As Henning notes, the Tigers may need to trade Ordonez to slice payroll down to the $100MM range.  Maggs is the team’s highest-paid player, and he has a fine .892 OPS.  Ordonez essentially comes with a three-year, $48MM contract.  Certain teams might find that contract acceptable, but not if the price also includes quality young players.  The Braves might be a good match if the Tigers are mainly looking for salary relief.

No team would assume the contracts of Sheffield, Robertson, or Willis, so there’s no point in trading them.  Polanco, Bonderman, and Thames probably have trade value, but the Tigers don’t necessarily have ready replacements.

Even if the Tigers move Ordonez’s contract, they won’t have much left over for free agents.  It’s hard to picture marquee free agents like Francisco Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, or Rafael Furcal being considered if Henning’s report is accurate.  They might be able to dig around the bargain bin, re-upping Freddy Garcia and adding a nondescript veteran reliever.

The Tigers can contend in 2009, but it’ll probably require comebacks from current players such as Bonderman, Willis, Verlander, Robertson, Sheffield, Rodney, and Zumaya.  The Tigers have one blue-chip prospect in Rick Porcello, who might be able to contribute in the second half. 

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Braves.  Here’s how they set up for ’09 using internal options only:

C – Brian McCann – $3.5MM
C – Clint Sammons – $400K
1B – Casey Kotchman – $1.45MM+
2B – Kelly Johnson – $430K+
SS – Yunel Escobar – $403K
3B – Chipper Jones – $11MM
IF – Martin Prado -$400K
IF/OF – Omar Infante – $1.4MM+
LF – Matt Diaz – $1.225MM+
CF – Josh Anderson – $400K
RF – Jeff Francoeur – $460K+
OF – Gregor Blanco – $400K
OF – Brandon Jones – $400K

SP – Jair Jurrjens – $400K
SP – Jorge Campillo – $400K
SP – Jo-Jo Reyes – $400K
SP – Charlie Morton – $400K
SP – James Parr – $400K

RP – Rafael Soriano – $6.1MM
RP – Mike Gonzalez – $2.3625MM+
RP – Blaine Boyer – $400K
RP – Jeff Bennett – $400K
RP – Manny Acosta – $400K
RP – Buddy Carlyle – $400K
RP – Jeff Ridgway – $400K

Injured players: Tim Hudson – $13MM, Peter Moylan – $410K, Chuck James – $428K+

Non-tender candidates: Vladimir Nunez, Ruben Gotay

The result: about $48MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Kotchman, Johnson, Infante, Diaz, Francoeur, and Gonzalez.  Those will add up, but the Braves should still come in under $60MM for the current players.  The team had an opening day payroll of $102.4MM.  The Braves are primed to do some serious spending.

The Braves are taking the right approach toward free agents/legends Tom Glavine and John Smoltz.  They could help, but the team won’t count on them.  I can see incentive-based deals for both. 

Manager Bobby Cox expects to add two quality starters, whether via free agency or trade.  I would target Derek Lowe due to his strong health record.  He might cost $14-15MM per year.  After that I’d ink a more affordable veteran like Paul Byrd, Freddy Garcia, or Randy Wolf.  That bargain starter may come from Japan, with Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami considered the top names.

That strategy would leave money for a quality left field bat – perhaps Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Raul Ibanez, Brian Giles, or Juan Rivera.  It would also be wise to add a stopgap center fielder in the Mark Kotsay/Randy Winn mold.

On the trade side, the Braves may be willing to move Johnson and/or Francoeur.  The trade market for starters may include Tim Redding, Andy Sonnanstine, Edwin Jackson, Ian Snell, Nate Robertson, Jarrod Washburn, Justin Duchscherer, and Boof Bonser.  See any matches there?  The Braves would be selling low on Francoeur.  Would swapping him for Brian Bannister make sense?

Frank Wren has a challenging offseason ahead of him; he’ll attempt to revamp the rotation and outfield.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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Next up in the Offseason Outlook series, the A’s.  Here’s how they might line up in 2009:

C – Kurt Suzuki -$400K
C – Rob Bowen – $410K+
1B – Daric Barton – $400K
2B – Eric Patterson – $400K
SS – Bobby Crosby – $5.25MM
3B – Eric Chavez – $11MM
IF – Jack Hannahan – $400K
IF – Cliff Pennington – $400K
LF – Aaron Cunningham – $400K
CF – Carlos Gonzalez – $400K
RF – Ryan Sweeney – $400K
OF – Rajai Davis – $400K
DH – Jack Cust – $410K+

SP – Justin Duchscherer – $1.2MM+
SP – Greg Smith – $400K
SP – Sean Gallagher – $400K
SP – Dana Eveland – $400K
SP – Dallas Braden – $400K

RP – Huston Street – $3.3MM+
RP – Brad Ziegler – $400K
RP – Joey Devine – $400K
RP – Santiago Casilla – $400K
RP – Andrew Brown – $400K
RP – Jerry Blevins – $400K
RP – Josh Outman – $400K

Other outfielders: Travis Buck – $400K, Chris Denorfia – $400K, Matt Murton – $400K

Other starters: Gio Gonzalez – $400K, Dan Meyer – $400K, Vince Mazzaro – $400K, Trevor Cahill – $400K, Brett Anderson – $400K

The A’s opened the ’08 season with a $48MM payroll, down $31MM from the year before.  They have roughly $29MM committed for ’09, plus arbitration raises to Bowen, Cust, Duchscherer, and Street.  They’ll surely come in under $40MM, and could trade Duke or Street.

Oakland’s pitching has been strong once again, and their fourth-ranked ERA holds up even after you subtract Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, and Chad Gaudin.   Lack of offense is the problem – the A’s are dead last in baseball in OBP, SLG, and runs scored.

Cust and Suzuki made positive contributions offensively; Sweeney was OK.  The infield could be an area to upgrade this winter (second base would require a stopgap solution due to the minor league depth).  Chavez will figure in if he can come back from shoulder surgery, but he may be incapable of playing third base.  The A’s have tons of outfielders, but no real trade surplus.  Given Billy Beane’s success developing and finding pitching, that’s the surplus.  He could deal Duchscherer or Street or attempt to swap young pitching for young hitting.

The A’s could target third basemen such as Edwin Encarnacion or Kevin Kouzmanoff, though neither player is an offensive monster.  Young shortstops are more difficult to find via trade.  Dan Uggla could be an interesting target for second or third base.  The A’s probably aren’t in the market for a first baseman, though Prince Fielder might be available.  That’d make for an amusing story.  Mike Jacobs could be a more feasible target.

Shrewd free agent signings might be a better and more likely path – Jason Giambi, Rafael Furcal, and Casey Blake could help.  The outfield market is strong, if the A’s don’t mind pushing various youngsters further down the depth chart.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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Click here to view previous offseason outlooks.  Today, a look at your 2009 Pirates.

C – Ryan Doumit – $412K+
C – Ronny Paulino – $424K
1B – Adam LaRoche – $5MM+
2B – Freddy Sanchez – $6.1MM
SS – Jack Wilson – $7.25MM
3B – Andy LaRoche – $400K
IF – Brian Bixler – $400K
IF – Luis Cruz – $400K
LF – Brandon Moss – $400K
CF – Nate McLouth – $425K+
RF – Steve Pearce – $400K
OF – Nyjer Morgan – $400K

SP – Paul Maholm – $425K+
SP – Ian Snell – $3MM
SP – Tom Gorzelanny – $419K
SP – Ross Ohlendorf – $400K
SP – Zach Duke – $400K+

RP – Matt Capps – $2.3MM
RP – John Grabow – $1.135MM+
RP – Tyler Yates – $800K+
RP – Craig Hansen – $700K
RP – T.J. Beam – $450K
RP – Denny Bautista – $400K+
RP – Phil Dumatrait – $400K

Other candidates: Jeff Karstens – $400K, Daniel McCutchen – $400K, Sean Burnett – $400K, Robinzon Diaz – $400K, Andrew McCutchen – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Jason Davis – $650K+, Raul Chavez – $550K+

Other commitments: Yoslan Herrera – $400K

The Bucs entered ’08 with a $48.7MM payroll.  The ’09 team has about $30.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Doumit, LaRoche, McLouth, Maholm, Duke, Grabow, Yates, and Bautista.  Even after those, they’ll still be comfortably under $40MM.  So there is no need to make payroll-motivated trades.

It is fair to suggest the Pirates moved in the right direction with this year’s trades.  This team won’t sniff contention in 2009, even with some breakout seasons.  Right now it’s simply a team short on star power without much in the way of hitting or pitching.  It will get worse before it gets better if the Bucs move LaRoche and/or Wilson this winter.  The focus should be a young shortstop and pitching.  The Pirates won’t be signing any significant free agents.

Doumit, McLouth, and Maholm were the bright spots in ’08.  Hopefully those players can sustain their success while players like Andy LaRoche, Moss, Snell, and Ohlendorf take a step forward.  Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata represent outfield promise for the future.  Signing Pedro Alvarez would add another future star to the farm system.  Neal Huntington did a nice job amassing young arms this year, and I’m sure he’ll continue to do so.  With some luck added, the Pirates could be competitive in 2010. 

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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Next up in our offseason outlook series, the Royals.  Here’s how they set up for 2009:

C – John Buck – $2.2MM+
C – Brayan Pena – $400K
1B – Kila Ka’aihue – $400K
2B – Alberto Callaspo – $400K
SS – Mike Aviles – $400K
3B – Alex Gordon – $406K
IF – Ross Gload – $1.9MM
IF – Esteban German – $1MM+
LF – Mark Teahen – $2.3375MM+
CF – David DeJesus – $3.6MM
RF – Jose Guillen – $12MM
OF – Joey Gathright – $427K+
DH – Billy Butler – $400K

SP – Gil Meche – $11MM
SP – Zack Greinke – $1.4MM+
SP – Brian Bannister – $421K+
SP – Luke Hochevar – $1.325MM
SP – Kyle Davies – $427K+

RP – Ron Mahay – $4MM
RP – Jimmy Gobble – $1.3125MM+
RP – Joel Peralta – $450K+
RP – Robinson Tejeda – $400K
RP – Joakim Soria – $1MM
RP – Leo Nunez – $405K
RP – Ramon Ramirez – $400K

Other commitments: Yasuhiko Yabuta – $3MM, Luke Hudson – $475K+, Miguel Olivo – $2.7MM club option with $100K buyout; can be voided by Olivo

Non-tender candidates: John Bale, Mark Teahen, Brandon Duckworth, Jason Smith, Ryan Shealy, Tony Pena Jr.

This setup has the Royals committed for $52MM plus arbitration raises to Buck, German, Teahen, Gathright, Greinke, Bannister, Davies, Gobble, and Peralta.  Some of these players may be non-tendered.  The Royals should come in under $60MM, regardless.  They began ’08 with a $58MM payroll and peaked at $67MM to start ’07.

Rany Jazayerli has already provided an intelligent take on the ’09 lineup.  Shifting Aviles to second base and signing Rafael Furcal or Orlando Cabrera seems a distinct possibility.  Plus, the free agent market is loaded with interesting left fielders.  A few things would have to click, but the Royals could have a solid offense next year.  I also agree with Jazayerli that Dayton Moore may target a young catcher this winter.  I’m sure the Rangers would love to get Greinke, but I don’t see him going anywhere.

Two situations to monitor in ’09: Ka’aihue’s playing time and Teahen’s contract.  Ka’aihue, 24, posted a .314/.456/.628 line between Double and Triple A, and deserves a 300 plate appearance audition at first.  Teahen has a .692 OPS this year – does his versatility make him worth $3MM in ’09?

The Royals have a fantastic front two in the rotation, and question marks beyond that.  Given Moore’s success digging up relievers on the cheap, I’d like to see Soria moved to the rotation.  Or, the Royals could sign Brian Fuentes to fill the void. 

The Royals have been awful this year, but they could be a sleeper in ’09 with the right additions and a couple of breakout seasons.  Stranger things have happened.

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