Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Austin Maddox Undergoes Rotator Cuff Surgery
Red Sox righty Austin Maddox has undergone surgery to his right rotator cuff, the club announced today. He’s expected to be sidelined for about twelve months, putting his 2019 season in jeopardy.
Maddox, 27, missed most of the 2018 season with a right shoulder strain, so this news strikes a cruel blow to a once-promising future in the Boston bullpen.
After a methodical climb through the Red Sox system, the hard-throwing righty inserted himself into the late-inning mix for the ’17 Red Sox with a 0.52 ERA in 17.1 IP, though his modest peripherals (7.27 K/9, 26% GB) didn’t necessarily portend future dominance.
Two rehab stints this season (the first in May, the latter cut short at the end of August) both ended in disaster for the young hurler, as he allowed 15 hits and 4 homers in 5 2/3 innings for Triple-A Pawtucket and Double-A Portland, doubtless a product of the still-iffy nature of his right shoulder.
Chad Kuhl Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
TODAY: Kuhl underwent TJS, meaning he’s slated for a year or more or rehab before he’ll be expected to return to action.
YESTERDAY: Pirates right-hander Chad Kuhl underwent surgery on his right elbow earlier today, team director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk announced to reporters (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Adam Berry). The team hasn’t provided further details just yet, so it’s not clear whether the operation was Tommy John surgery or a less severe procedure. Kuhl hadn’t pitched since late June due to a forearm strain and tightness in his elbow, and he’d recently suffered a setback upon trying to ramp back up for a September return.
The 26-year-old Kuhl has started 61 games for the Bucs across the past three seasons, emerging as a useful and cost-effective back-of-the-rotation arm for manager Clint Hurdle. Through 313 big league frames, the former ninth-round pick (2013) has worked to a 4.37 ERA while averaging 7.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 1.09 HR/9 to go along with a 41 percent ground-ball rate. His timetable for a return, obviously, won’t be known until the club divulges further details.
[Related: Pittsburgh Pirates depth chart]
If Kuhl’s surgery allows him to return in time for Opening Day 2019 or early in the season, he’ll figure to be in the mix for a rotation spot alongside Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Ivan Nova, Joe Musgrove, Nick Kingham and Trevor Williams. Pittsburgh has a fairly deep stock of MLB-ready rotation pieces, though, which could potentially push Kuhl to the ’pen — especially if the team intends to be conservative in terms of his workload following a season in which he was limited to 85 innings.
It’s not the way that Kuhl or the Pirates were hoping his season would end, but he’ll have ample time to work his way back into the fold for the team in future seasons. Kuhl will finish out the year with two-plus years of Major League service but fall well shy of Super Two status, meaning he won’t even be arbitration-eligible until after the 2019 season. Pittsburgh currently controls him through the 2022 campaign.
Madison Bumgarner Discusses Future With Giants
Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner discussed his future with the organization in a chat with Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s certainly well worth a full read.
Bumgarner, 29, says that the club has yet to reach out regarding a possible contract extension. As things stand, he indicated, he’s not sure what the team’s intentions are as it prepares for an offseason of uncertainty.
Of course, it’s certain that Bumgarner’s 2019 option will be exercised. But it’s at least possible to imagine the San Francisco club seeking offers after picking it up at a bargain $12MM rate. Despite some areas of concern that have arisen this year for the big lefty, there’d be plenty of demand for his services if he was made available.
Bumgarner says he hasn’t entertained the thought that his time with the Giants could conceivably be nearing an end, explaining that he’s “a one-day-at-a-time kind of guy.” Of course, he did also say that he’d “like to be [in San Francisco] my whole career,” so it seems fair to assume that Bumgarner isn’t exactly itching for a change of scenery.
Certainly, it’d be interesting to see how talks might progress if the Giants open negotiations with the southpaw’s reps at The Legacy Agency. His outstanding track record speaks for itself, of course. He’s a premium regular season performer and postseason legend.
Despite the obvious positives, Bumgarner has shown some cracks. He has missed significant time in each of the past two seasons, breaking a string of six-straight 200-inning campaigns. He also hasn’t been as dominant when on the hill. This year, for instance, Bumgarner has a 3.14 ERA but is averaging only 7.5 K/9 and surrendering a career-high 3.1 BB/9.
The future is uncertain to an extent not previously seen for one of the game’s preeminent workhorses. Estimators value Bumgarner as a low-4.00 ERA hurler. He’s allowing far more hard contact (40.1%) than ever before, while posting declines in swinging-strike rate (9.5%) and average fastball velocity (90.8 mph). That he has nevertheless succeeded is a credit to Bumgarner, to be sure, but sustainability remains in question.
As Schulman explains, there are a host of variables at play. Though Bumgarner says he doesn’t expect to command a premium for the excess value he provided under his early-career extension, he does note that “guys are looking to get paid what they think they’re worth compared to the market and how other players are getting paid.” What that might be in this case, and whether the Giants are positioned to make that sort of deal, is open to debate — and negotiation.
Silver Linings: National League Central
We looked yesterday at the silver linings for out-of-the-race clubs in the American League Central. Today, we’ll hop over to their National League counterparts. Given the successes of the team’s three best clubs, we’re only considering a pair of organizations this time around.
The most promising development to occur in these otherwise unsuccessful 2018 NL Central campaigns (with link to current depth chart):
Pirates: Rotation Core
It has been a rollercoaster year for the Bucs, who sprinted into the trade deadline but faded after doing some limited buying. Of course, the club’s mid-season acquisitions weren’t just aimed at the 2018 season, but they assuredly were designed to enhance the organization’s chances of contending over the next couple of seasons.
Given that the club has sought to consolidate its talent at the MLB level for the next few seasons, it seems fair to focus here on young major-league talent rather than further-off prospects. In that regard, the development of a new core of controllable starters is a notable turn of events that has perhaps gone unappreciated amidst the attention showered upon the acquisition of — and price paid for — Chris Archer.
By most measures, the Pirates had a middle-of-the-road rotation this year. But it achieved those results at a minimal cost. The 2019 staff looks to have plenty of talent and will again be dirt cheap. Archer and Ivan Nova are earning only $16MM, while a four-pack of young starters — Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, and Nick Kingham — all remain shy of arbitration eligibility.
Taillon has entrenched himself as a top-of-the-rotation arm. Williams and Musgrove have each at least established that they are high-quality rotation pieces. (The former has outperformed his peripherals somewhat while the opposite is true of the latter.) And though he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard in his debut effort, Kingham has otherwise shown a MLB-worthy skillset. Plus, top-twenty leaguewide prospect Mitch Keller is knocking on the door, even if surgery for Chad Kuhl hurts the depth picture.
The case for the Pirates as a surprisingly strong 2019 contender begins with the idea that they’ll have a deep, capable, and affordable rotation. But it also relies upon some other recent developments. The bullpen has a similarly promising core unit in the works, with five controllable sub-3.00 ERA hurlers on board (including deadline addition Keone Kela). The resurgence of Francisco Cervelli, bounceback of Starling Marte, and arrival of Adam Frazier (who has thrived) and Kevin Newman (who has not) are all worthy of note. There have been less-than-encouraging developments as well, such as Gregory Polanco’s injury, but the Bucs could be an interesting team to watch, especially if they are able to make some strategic investments in areas of need this winter.
Reds: Middle-Infield Magic
There was a theory circulating in the middle of the season that the Reds were on the cusp of contention, having played roughly .500 ball since Jim Riggleman replaced Bryan Price in the managerial role. That concept has fallen out of favor. After all, since the calendar flipped to August, the Cincinnati club carries a 17-29 record.
Still, the organization does have some hope to carry with it out of 2018. In particular, it seems to have resolved some things in the middle infield. Scooter Gennett only has one season left before reaching free agency, but there’s ample indication he’ll engage with the team in offseason extension talks. Certainly, he has doubled down on a breakout 2017 campaign and proven worthy of everyday status — though his future value to the organization will certainly depend upon the price of a new deal, if it’s struck.
The shortstop position, meanwhile, had been in question since Zack Cozart departed, but the team now has a potential solution. Jose Peraza certainly hasn’t graded as a stellar defender there, but he has been within range of average with the glove. And his work at the plate has turned around after a worrisome 2017 campaign. Through 647 plate appearances in 2018, Peraza has hit at a roughly league-average .290/.329/.421 rate (99 wRC+) with 13 home runs and 23 steals. With his excellent baserunning added into the equation, he has been worth 2.5 fWAR and 2.1 rWAR.
If top prospect Nick Senzel gets healthy and comfortable in the corner outfield this fall, the Reds could have a strong position-player unit in place. Unfortunately, what this club really needed was a shinier silver lining from its pitching staff. Luis Castillo did bounce back from a rough opening to the season and Anthony DeSclafani is finally back on the bump. And there were some strong bullpen performances, even if the peripherals tell a much less promising tale. But the club also perhaps cast away the hidden gem it unearthed by trading Dylan Floro, who has thrived with the Dodgers. It got worrying news on top pitching prospect Hunter Greene. Several young starters failed to establish themselves (Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano) or were limited by injury (Brandon Finnegan), while Homer Bailey’s malaise continued. Robert Stephenson showed promise at Triple-A but then struggled in a brief MLB rotation stint, was bumped to the bullpen, and ended up on the DL with shoulder problems.
Needless to say, there’s still vast uncertainty in the staff in 2019 and beyond. Finding a way to a quality 2019 pitching unit remains a difficult, but critical, task for the Cinci front office.
Doosan Bears Place Scott Van Slyke On Waivers
The Korea Baseball Organization’s Doosan Bears have decided to part ways with former MLB slugger Scott Van Slyke, as Yonhap News reports. Formally, the club has requested waivers on Van Slyke.
It took only a dozen games for the Bears to sour on the outfielder/first baseman, who was added after things failed to work out with another non-Korean player, Jimmy Paredes. Now, the club says it will go without a foreign hitter as it tries to finish off a strong overall season.
KBO teams are allowed up to three foreign players under league rules. (A new version of the rules will impact signings, but will not change the number of roster spots.) Doosan already employs righties Seth Frankoff and Josh Lindblom, both of whom have turned in quality seasons in the hitter-friendly league.
Van Slyke, 32, joined the Bears after opening the season with a .248/.354/.467 batting line in 162 plate appearances at Triple-A in the Marlins organization. The former Dodgers platoon man has had some productive seasons in the majors, but hasn’t seen much time or been very effective at the game’s highest level since 2015.
Ultimately, Van Slyke struggled through his brief time in the KBO, carrying a meager .128/.209/.231 slash and one home run. It’s a short leash, to be sure, but perhaps it’s hard to argue given that the club leads the league in runs despite receiving paltry output from its non-Korean hitters.
Sean Manaea Undergoes Shoulder Surgery, Likely To Miss 2019 Season
Sept. 19: Oakland announced that Manaea underwent a subacromial decompression, acromioplasty and posterior labral repair today. There’s no indication that his timetable is any more favorable than it was when Melvin announced the surgery last week.
Sept. 11, 4:22pm: The news on Manaea’s timeline is brutal, as manager Bob Melvin now tells reporters that the expectation is that Manaea will miss an entire year (Twitter links via Jane Lee of MLB.com and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). The team will know more after the surgery, but that early estimate is a crushing reality for the upstart A’s, who may now be without their most talented starter for the entirety of the 2019 season.
2:17pm: The Athletics announced today that lefty Sean Manaea will undergo surgery on his pitching shoulder. He had been on the disabled list since late August with what was then labeled as an impingement.
Certainly, the procedure will be expected to keep Manaea sidelined for the remainder of the 2018 season. Beyond that, though, it’s not clear what to expect. The organization says that it “will provide further details after the surgery.”
While it had become increasingly clear of late that Manaea would not make it back late this year, this is still a particularly disappointing way to wrap things up. We’ll need to wait to learn more about the prognosis, but shoulder surgeries are always of particular concern for pitchers.
Manaea had turned in 161 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA pitching this year, helping spur a remarkable run for the Oakland ballclub. To be sure, his peripherals weren’t quite as exciting. With 6.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and a 44.0% groundball rate, ERA estimators viewed him more as a quality rotation piece than a front-end starter (4.26 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, 4.46 SIERA).
Despite the questions, the 26-year-old is an indisputably talented and valuable pitcher. He’s slated to qualify for arbitration this coming offseason as a Super Two player, so missing some time late in the year will put a bit of a dent in his earnings. Still, with 464 MLB frames of sub-4.00 ERA pitching already under his belt, Manaea ought to earn well through the arb process.
AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Harvey, Nunez, Chapman
With the season winding down, Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling writes that both right-hander Marco Estrada and outfielder Dalton Pompey are likely nearing the end of their time with the Blue Jays. Estrada, 35, is a free agent at season’s end, and the Toronto organization has rotation locks in Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and Ryan Borucki lined up for next season, with several other younger options on hand in the organization as well. As for Pompey, Zwelling notes that he’ll be out of options in 2019 and no longer fits into a crowded outfield picture in Toronto, suggesting that the 25-year-old will either be traded to another organization or simply designated for assignment as the Jays look to protect prospects in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.
Here’s more from the division…
- Orioles prospect Hunter Harvey has suffered yet another setback in his return from elbow troubles, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The O’s had planned to send Harvey, a former Top 10 overall draft pick and once a consensus top 100 prospect, to the Arizona Fall League following the season. Those plans have been scrapped, and Harvey will cease throwing in the instructional league as well. The 23-year-old righty has already had Tommy John surgery in his young professional career, and he’s also battled shoulder troubles this year as well. There’s little doubting Harvey’s raw talent, but at this point, he’s thrown just 176 1/3 innings in parts of five professional seasons due to his inability to stay healthy. The 2018 season accounted for 32 1/3 of those frames, during which Harvey limped to a 5.57 ERA with a 30-to-9 K/BB ratio.
- Red Sox infielder Eduardo Nunez exited tonight’s game due to soreness in his right knee, tweets Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. It’s the latest in a long series of knee injuries that have hampered the versatile infielder dating back to last season. Nunez recently acknowledged that he’s played through discomfort for much of the season, posting a woeful .264/.288/.378 slash through 494 plate appearances along the way. Manager Alex Cora doesn’t believe Nunez’s injury to be serious, but he’ll be out of the lineup tomorrow at the very least. Nunez’s 400th plate appearance boosted the value of his 2019 player option from $4MM to $5MM (per WEEI’s Rob Bradford), and his ongoing knee issues create a possibility that he’ll simply opt to return at that rate for the 2019 season.
- The Yankees activated Aroldis Chapman from the 10-day disabled list earlier today, but Dan Martin of the New York Post writes that he’ll be eased back into the closer’s role as the Yanks try to be mindful of the knee issues that have slowed him in 2018. “We want to get him back in the mix,” said manager Aaron Boone. “…and in a regular role sooner than later, but we also want to make sure we are using him in big spots here down the stretch so he is firing on all cylinders as we head into October.” With Chapman, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez all back from the disabled list, the Yankees are more or less at full strength, but they’re still likely to need to get through an upstart Athletics club the Wild Card game in order to orchestrate a return to the American League Division Series.
Brandon Belt Likely Done For The Season, Could Require Knee Surgery
Giants first baseman Brandon Belt is headed for another MRI on his right knee and is unlikely to return in 2018, manager Bruce Bochy announced to reporters (Twitter link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). It’s likely that Belt will ultimately require surgery to repair the knee.
Belt, 30, becomes the latest notable Giants player to go down with a season-ending injury, joining Johnny Cueto, Buster Posey, Steven Duggar and Jeff Samardzija in that onerous distinction. He’s faded badly at the plate in recent months after a torrid start to the season that saw him mash at a torrid .307/.403/.547 pace through June 1 before landing on the disabled list to undergo an appendectomy. He homered in his second game back from that DL trip but has struggled immensely overall, turning in a miserable .203/.283/.290 slash through 230 plate appearances.
It’s a disappointing finish to what looked to be a potential breakout campaign for Belt just a few months ago. While he’s long been a decidedly above-average (and at times, even great) hitter, the first two months of Belt’s season were elite (156 wRC+ — which is to say that his overall line was 56 percent better than that of a league-average hitter after being adjusted for home park and league).
Belt is in the second season of a five-year extension worth more than $70MM guaranteed, and he’ll earn $16MM in each of the next three seasons. He’s managed just 216 games over the first two seasons of that contract, as he’s been limited by a pair of concussions in addition to his hyper-extended knee and appendectomy.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Corbin, Leclerc, McCutchen, Morton
Click here to view the transcript for MLBTR Chat With Jason Martinez: September 19, 2018
