Click here to view the transcript for MLBTR Chat With Jason Martinez: September 19, 2018
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Morton for $22MM total? What comparable is even in that neighborhood for a guy with over three hundred innings total in 17/18, 10+k/9, mid three xFIP/FIP, sitting 95 with one of the best breaking balls in the game? That’s under Chatwood AAV.
Morton is 34. Chatwood is 28.
Believe it or not, Morton’s numbers from the past two years are in line or better than Darvish and Arrieta’s two years prior to their deals. Darvish’s age 35-36 seasons are valued around $25MM a piece. Arrieta’s 35-36 seasons are team options at $20MM.
Rich Hill is Morton’s best comp concerning age at $16MM AAV, as Hill was two years older than Morton will be, and Morton seems to be seeking a year less than Hill. The only other recent contract I can think of that fits is Kazmir’s Dodgers contract at 3/$48MM. His numbers are slightly better leading into FA and he was a couple years younger.
This makes me believe Morton gets no less than 2/$30 and possibly 2/$36. Certainly his 35-36 YO seasons cannot be valued at 50% less than Darvish’s, which is what 2/$22 is.
Correction
Darvish’s 35/36 YO seasons are valued at 19/18. Apologies.
I believe the premise under consideration was a one-year arrangement. The reason that we have been contemplating that particular scenario is that Morton has given indications he won’t be seeking multiple years.
I’m not sure what Jason would predict if Morton was seeking to maximize his total guarantee, but I don’t think that’s really what he was addressing here.
“It could be this year, next year, but I’m not going to keep playing for a long time,” said Morton of his eventual retirement. “I can promise you that. I’m not going to keep playing four, five, six, seven more years.”
This was all I could find on MLBTR that quoted the number of years he might play for, and it still doesn’t resolve the number Jason suggested (2/22MM). What are the comparables that lead him to that number is what I’m wondering, because I can’t find any.
Unless I’m just missing something, he isn’t talking about 2/22. He was talking about one-year scenarios. What is the quote you are seeing?
“Jason Martinez
4:39 Let’s not get crazy here. It wouldn’t be surprised if he got more than his last deal (2 yr, $14MM), but he’s heading into his age-35 season. Maybe 2 yr, $22MM?”
He’s old and tired…..