Nolan Arenado is back in the Cardinals’ lineup after a six-week shoulder injury. He has started at third base each of the past two nights. He’ll probably be in the lineup for most or all of the final 10 games of the season, but the real source of intrigue will turn up again in the offseason.
Arenado is under contract for two more seasons. He’s slated for a $27MM salary next year. The Rockies are covering $5MM and another $6MM is deferred. His salary drops to $15MM for 2027, when the Rox will finally be off the hook for any portion of the deal. St. Louis would love to shed a percentage of the remaining two years and $37MM. Arenado has a full no-trade clause, and it’s a lot of money for a player whose offense has sharply declined.
Lining up a trade will be easier said than done. Arenado nevertheless acknowledged yesterday that he has thought about the possibility that this week’s homestand could be his final at Busch Stadium (via Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat). The 34-year-old noted that the organization is “heading toward young players, letting them (play).” He said he expects the upcoming offseason to be similar to last winter’s in terms of trade rumors.
Arenado did not tip his hand on his plans for the no-trade clause. He famously killed a deal to Houston last winter when he wanted more time to evaluate their direction after trading Kyle Tucker. It was believed that he only wished to go to the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres or potentially Astros when he better understood their competitive outlook.
The Yankees never showed much interest and have acquired Arenado’s old teammate Ryan McMahon to play third base. The Dodgers and Padres still have Max Muncy (via club option) and Manny Machado, respectively, under contract. Boston could lose Alex Bregman to free agency, but they’ll surely make a push to re-sign him before considering trading for Arenado. The 10-time Gold Glove winner remains a plus defender but has hit .238/.296/.370 in nearly 400 trips to the plate. It’s his worst offensive production in a 162-game season since he was a rookie.
St. Louis wouldn’t have any issue finding interest if they shopped Brendan Donovan. The lefty hitter is also controllable for two more seasons. He’s going through arbitration and will earn a raise on this year’s $2.85MM salary. He’ll presumably make something like $15MM over the next two seasons. That’s well below market value for a Gold Glove utility player who carries a .283/.351/.409 line across 492 trips to the plate.
The Cardinals never seemed to get close on a deal involving Donovan at the trade deadline. That’s despite reported interest from the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers (surely among others). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic floats the possibility of Donovan being an offseason trade candidate. Chaim Bloom will take over baseball operations from John Mozeliak at the beginning of the offseason. He’s probably not going to tear things all the way down, but there’s a case for more earnestly trying to move arbitration-eligible players like Donovan and Lars Nootbaar.
That’d especially be the case if ownership is reluctant to spend on significant rotation upgrades. They have the makings of a potentially competitive lineup. There’s a lot more work to be done on the pitching side. Matthew Liberatore leads the rotation with a 4.30 earned run average. Sonny Gray still has peripherals that look far better than his 4.43 mark, but he’s their only starter who reliably misses bats.
Liberatore’s numbers have fallen off in the second half. Michael McGreevy has a 4.44 ERA with a 14.2% strikeout rate in 79 innings. Miles Mikolas has allowed almost five earned runs per nine; they’ll probably let him walk in free agency. Ground-ball specialist Andre Pallante has had a terrible second half and should probably be in relief.
A lot of the organization’s most talented minor league arms have gone backwards this season. Quinn Mathews could get a look next year but will need to show far better command than he has in Triple-A. Tekoah Roby and Sem Robberse have each undergone Tommy John surgery. Tink Hence has yet to show that he can stay healthy. Fifth overall pick Liam Doyle is now the organization’s clear top pitching prospect but probably won’t be on the MLB radar until the middle of next season at the earliest.
The Cardinals aren’t likely to acquire four starting pitchers over the winter. They’ll need some internal arms to step up. One outside the box candidate could be Kyle Leahy. The 28-year-old has been a full-time reliever over parts of three MLB seasons. Leahy has had a breakout year while working multiple innings, tossing 81 frames of 3.33 ERA ball across 58 appearances. He has made a handful of 2-3 inning outings as one of Oli Marmol’s more trusted arms in the second half.
Katie Woo of The Athletic writes that the Cardinals have been impressed enough with Leahy that they may seriously consider him as a rotation option next season. The 6’4″ righty was a starter early in his minor league career, but he topped out at Double-A in that role. He has been a reliever since the end of the 2022 season.
Leahy is still using a six-pitch mix and has above-average control. He has been better against right-handed hitters but has limited damage reasonably well (.262/.349/.385) versus lefties. It’s not out of the question that he could succeed as a back-end starter. The Cardinals would need to weigh whether the upside of giving him that opportunity is worth removing one of the better pieces from an inexperienced bullpen with Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton and Steven Matz out of the picture.
Is the Astros seriousness about winning still not up to the standards of washed up Arenado?
I suspect that the Astros are no longer interested in Arenado because they have since acquired Correa to play 3rd.
Re: Arenado
“The 10-time Gold Glove winner remains a plus defender”
The thing is, while his glove hasn’t cratered as much as his bat, it still has taken a step backward as well.
The last three seasons, he’s gotten 0, 6, and 4 DRS. Prior to that, he was putting up easy double digit DRS every season.
His OAA this season is sitting at 2, the lowest of his career.
He’s now just a somewhat above average glove with a bad bat.
Unless some team truly believes they have the fix for that bat, it’s hard to see any playoff contender seeing him as a guy worth bringing in.
There’s already been a fix for his bat. It’s called not playing hurt anymore. If you exclude his numbers from July when he was playing hurt, his bat is still around league average like it was last year.
Small sample, but Nado looks stronger at the plate in his return. He hit an oppo ball harder last night than I’ve seen in quite a while. I’m encouraged.
Showcasing him the next two weeks will be interesting to see. Everybody’s super motivated to make a change.
They were specific injuries that he has now healed from. You can’t say whether or not he’ll have another injury next year. He’s generally had a really healthy career to this point.
Even if he does, he probably won’t probably won’t play through it for a month again, which will at least make his rate stats much better.
Agree. Pretty darn clear he was pressing through the discomfort to maybe have a shot at getting moved to a contender. It got pretty bad at the end of that stint, but before that, he seemed fine.
I still don’t understand why the Cardinals are not even entertaining the idea (at least it seems) of locking down Donnie for at least the next five years or so.
He is the kind of player that they need. Gritty, tough, and gives his all on every at bat, and every play in the field. I don’t get it. End up getting two mediocre players in return that haven’t proven anything at the major league level.
I think that’s something that should be on Bloom’s list.
I feel like I’ve been hearing Donovan trade rumors since his rookie year. He has put up a 114 OPS+ on the dot each of the last 3 seasons, and is a solid defender at multiple poisitions. Why shop him and not try and extend him?
It’s because they’re cheap. I would love to see an extension that keeps Donnie a Cardinal for another 3-4 seasons, though.
Who says they’re not? That probably is something they’re considering for the offseason.
At the very least, they’re almost certainly not going to trade him like the bozos here keep suggesting.
Because he’s at the peak of his value and already starting to decline defensively. He’s the last guy you’d want to extend into his early 30s. He’s a 2.5-3 WAR player at most and won’t be around when the team is likely to be a serious contender again.
He’s going to be 31 when he hits free agency. He’s a good hitter, but has virtually no power and his defense has been in pretty steep decline. Why would you want to pay him into his decline years when his skill set isn’t likely to age very well?
Donnie works his tail off and is getting the absolute most out of his somewhat limited physical gifts. He’s learned to play every position, has a good glove, LOVES BASEBALL, takes a two-strike approach to get on base, and plays hard every single day. You want those guys on your team.
But he’s 28 and he’s peaking right now.
He’s not fast, doesn’t really steal bases, clogs the basepaths as a leadoff guy, doesn’t have great range, he’s undersized, doesn’t throw hard, has limited pop, and has already had UCL surgery on his throwing arm.
You don’t extend those guys, you trade them. Maybe not this year, but probably next year. He’s the kind of player you trade to a win-now team and get a nice return.
I love Donnie. Truly. He’s the heart of the team and he’s my favorite Cardinal. But his trade value right now is between 10-15 mil/year. Find the right deal and make the move.
Pretty sure almost all MLB players LOVE BASEBALL.
Some MLB players (who only make a bit more than the league minimum) build batting complexes at their homes and invite players to come work out (and stay in their spare bedrooms) during the offseason.
Donnie is also known to be a go early/stay late guy at the ballpark.
No everybody is that guy; Donnie is.
Anthony Rendon would like a word with you….
Why?
He’s the type of ball player the Cardinals need. He’s a semi star. Not that expensive as compared to a star player with much similar abilities.
The Cardinals Owners have proven they are not ever going to spend the Big Bucks on Quality Players anymore!!!
That’s a proven Fact because there is not a single superstar or even a Near Superstar on the Cardinals team!!! Or in the entire organization.
Donovan is home grown. On these owners cheap budget —- it’s only logical that they need to lock him up with an extension rather than trading him for low tier prospects who will never make it past Double A.
I agree “letsholemandgohome”
Donovan is the solid example of hard work and a good role model for the “Old” Cardinal Way.
However —- obviously the “New Cardinals Way” —- is even if you are a good ball player and are going to cost a dime more in the future…. Let’s dump them for prospects who’ll never make it nor cost us any more money…
Thank You Bill DeWitt III !!!!!
As it appears —- Ever since he has been given more and more responsibility —- the “cheaper” and the “Worse” the team has gotten!!!
Is Problem really as “Lance Lynn” has described????
Not Mozeliak’s fault for “not spending money on Quality Players” because the Owners refused to provide any funds to do so with?????
If so —- Maybe it’s all of the Owners that “Cardinals Nation should be “BOOING” rather than John Mozeliak?????
I will never understand baseball economics. When guys are making a million a year the team will use every ounce of him up, but when he makes that payday and he’s near the end of it they always say they don’t want to pay for such a decline in stats. Then freaking pay these guys in the first 7 years of their careers when they are putting up huge numbers and pay them less as they age.
Small market, non-competitive teams don’t want what you’re proposing. They want a cost-certainty of operating and revenue-sharing income. Why pay Paul Skenes and Nick Kuntz more when they don’t have to?
Cardinals may play in a small market but they’re not small market. For gods sake, they invented the farm system. They’ve just mismanaged their assets over the past few years and it’s caught up to them. Their model was always development. They’ve just got to get back to what made them successful for decades.
That would make it literally impossible for low revenue teams to operate. High draft picks would move heaven and earth to be drafted by a high budget team, and minor leaguers would demand trades.
Gray is a solid #2 starter. Liberatore is a solid #3 or #4 starter. McGreevy is a solid #4 or #5 starter. 2026 is going to be another mid team if they don’t sign two top of the rotation starters. And we all know they won’t!!
There aren’t any available anyway.
Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen.
They will need to try & pry away a starter from another who has decent pitching. Going the trade route seems to be their best bet. Perhaps Weatherholt could fetch a top of the rotation starting pitcher.
I’d hold onto weatherholt, probably best offensive prospect we’ve had in awhile. I think him and Winn are the building blocks. I think we are non competitive the next 2 years. I’d trade Donnie for a young starter or stud in triple A plus others, he will fetch a nice return. I’d trade Nolan and most of his contract just to free up minimal dollars and give the kids more playing time. Trade noot, Donnie, romero and one of the catchers. Maybe trade sonny and Contreras if they will allow it. Plan for 2027 or 2028 when our pitching prospects are back that had surgery and we have no payroll constraints. Have to play gorman, walker, and Scott to see if they are viable, for the future or to trade or to release. I know fans want them to compete every year but they are not built to compete next year no matter who they sign
Trading Wetherholt for pitching would be a truly foolish move.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if McGreevy surpasses Liberatore next year. He’s done a pretty good job as a rookie and should only get better from here.
But otherwise, yeah, they’ve been too inconsistent. However, they very well could find a way to trade for or sign one #1-#2 starter over the offseason, which could be enough to compete depending on how the other young arms develop.
Improving player development is mostly why they went through the whole transition year thing while cutting payroll.
I expect good things from Libby and McGreevy next year. They’ve both made strides and though they both look worn out, they’re doing a good job of LEARNING how to PITCH and their poise and stuff look good to me.
I think they’ll both be legit #2s. But I’ve been wrong before 😊
I would say Gray #2, Liberatore #3 & McGreevy #4. Leahy could be a good #5 next year but they really should sign or trade for a #1.
And I forgot to mention Pallante. He is a solid #7 or #8 starter!
I wholeheartedly agree.
I believe that dollar amount for Arenado in ‘26 is his lux tax figure, which is irrelevant to the Cards. He’s actually going to make only $16m, according to Spotrac and my memory. 2026 was originally his final season but then the Cards tacked one on.
Nope, they did list the correct figures according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts:
$27M in 2026, $5M paid by Rockies, $6M deferred
$15M straight salary in 2027
That $16M figure is what comes out of the Cardinals’ 2026 payroll, unless of course he’s traded.
Ugh, another idiot who somehow thinks the Cardinals have any interest in trading Donovan and missed the fact that Arenado’s offense only went down due to playing hurt for a month.
The info on Leahy was interesting, though.
To me, the improvements of Ixan Henderson, Brycen Mautz, and Braden Davis pretty much offset the injury bug striking Hjerpe, Robberse, and Roby (who looked great before the injury, Hjerpe too really). Henderson and/or Mautz could conceivably see time in 2026.
Henderson pitched 6 scoreless against the Drillers in game 1 tonight. I’ve been watching his starts on MiLB when possible and I’m excited about his potential. I would like to see him called up next year if he continues to grow in Memphis.
Lanidrac: What have you been smoking? Arenado’s offense has steadily declined over the last three seasons.
To say the Cardinals would be happy to shed a percentage of Arenados contract is a stupid statement. What makes sense is the team keeps him around and perhaps he bounces back and is dealt at the deadline. If he doesnt bounce back he isnt any good and might as well stick around because nobody will want him.
The rotation isnt in bad shape, especially long term, but an ace needs to be acquired whether it’s trade or signing. Perhaps signing Gallen or trading for Alcantara could make sense. A righty is needed with Liberatore, Matthews and Henderson all lefties. I believe Doyle will be the closer and the sooner that happens the better off the team will be.
Walker needs to go. Let someone else try and fix him. Someone will have to be dealt to make room for Wetherholt. Perhaps thats Donovan it could be Gorman also.
I think the team is going to trade guys but it will happen in July not in the offseason. Donovan, Nootbaar, Arenado, Gray, Romero all could be dealt but it won’t happen unless the team is out of it.
Is Arenado still a hall of famer with his falloff?
Probably on the basis of his 10 peak and elite defense.
100%
Very borderline. His career fWAR is 51, which is quite low for a position player Hall of Fame guy, and there are very few Hall guys who get in on defense. I always thought he needed two or three more good years, and he may well get them, but right now I’d say he’s one of those “on the ballot and gradually gaining for years and finally gets in or runs out of time” guys.
I don’t know why owner Bill DeWitt, Jr. is so reluctant to spend in search of talent. Is he a tightwad? Do he and the Cardinals simply lack the money? The Cards are bound to wallow if they can’t/don’t loosen the pursestrings.
Cardinals will keep Arenado, none of the teams on his trade list will want him, they all have a 3B option. Might as well see what a healthy Arenado does for a young Cardinals team.
There’s no “intrigue” at all. Nobody wants this guy so if the Cardinals want to move him then they need to take on somebody else’s bad contract.
I agree mulli. I don’t think anybody wants him anymore. He’s now overpaid and don’t forget, Even if they do eat money and manage to trade him his NTC still goes with him. So now everybody has seen how difficult he is to trade who wants that headache?
I’m sort of surprised no one is bringing up how Bloom was the guy to ship out Mookie? I wonder if he has a knack for making the unpopular move and we see Nado moved alongside a Noot/Donovan/Herrera/prospects for a meaningful return that can address the pressing needs at the farm.
Most people see the mookie trade as an ownership decision
Arenado has turned into Ryan McMahon, who has turned into DJ LeMaheiu
Cards have a.lot.of.FV.45 pitchers that look.better than rated.
I look for Arenado to be manning 3rd base for the next two years. I do believe both Nootbaar and Donovan will be traded this winter.
The team is a few years from competing. Gray, Contreras, and Arenado will be gone by the time the team is competing again. Those salaries are a sunk cost. It’s a waste of time to try to recover any of it. Contreras is the only one who could be traded without sending a lot of money. That’s if he would wave his no trade. I don’t see why he would change his mind. He’s been adamant.
How is it a waste of time to try and trade Arenado? This is literally the sunk cost fallacy that you’re espousing here. They should absolutely send money to get Arenado off the books. Gorman is objectively a better player than him at this point. The return is irrelevant, but getting him off the roster removes the biggest and least productive part of infield log jam. Otherwise he should just sit on the bench and be a late inning defensive replacement.
It’s not a fallacy if you’re paying Arenado to play for someone else. You cannot keep from paying that money. The sunk cost fallacy requires that you can end the cost.
Gorman is a horrible 3rd baseman and subpar second baseman whose bat has disappeared. He would also be much easier to move without paying him to play somewhere else. The Cardinals need to move on from him.
The money is already sunk regardless of where he’s playing. Continuing to play him is the sunk cost fallacy. Gorman has had over a 120 WRC+ since June and is right above league average currently after the horrible April he had. He’s a just below average defender at 2B and hasn’t gotten a chance to play his natural position for like 4 seasons because of Arenado’s presence in the lineup. He’ll get better at 3B with time and is objectively a better hitter than Arenado by a wide margin against LHP and RHP. Gorman projects to be a 2 WAR starter at 3B at his current state, which is a big upgrade over Arenado even if he doesn’t end up being the long term solution there.
Gorman has always been very streaky. His bat has completely disappeared again over the last month. His OPS+ on the season is now 92 and dropping.
Those same projections show Arenado as a 3 WAR player primarily because he doesn’t have Gorman’s -2 dWAR projection. Gorman is not a big upgrade. He has no glove and an 89 OPS+ over the last two seasons. At least Arenado is still an above average glove.
holidayfever ??????
I’ve read your post before and they are extremely reasonable. I’ve always agreed with you in the past.
However—- I believe you’ve missed the mark on this one.
For one thing… even now, at Nolan Arenaldo’s worst 2 months of his career (July-August) , Nolan Gorman can’t match Arenado’s numbers either offensively and especially defensively.
Otherwise you have a point. Right now though —- reality shows —- Arenado will, more than likely, remain with the Cardinals at the beginning of 2026.
Cardinals owners aren’t going to spend big money and therefore aren’t going to flush big bucks only to move Arenado off of the roster —- when his current numbers are actually better than all but 3 of the current everyday starters.
Maybe a mid-season deal might happen. The reason being, there’ll be less money to dump for a season and a half than for the 2 most expensive seasons on his contract ending in 2027.
The Astros dodged a bullet when Arenado blocked the trade to them.