Nolan Arenado is back in the Cardinals’ lineup after a six-week shoulder injury. He has started at third base each of the past two nights. He’ll probably be in the lineup for most or all of the final 10 games of the season, but the real source of intrigue will turn up again in the offseason.
Arenado is under contract for two more seasons. He’s slated for a $27MM salary next year. The Rockies are covering $5MM and another $6MM is deferred. His salary drops to $15MM for 2027, when the Rox will finally be off the hook for any portion of the deal. St. Louis would love to shed a percentage of the remaining two years and $37MM. Arenado has a full no-trade clause, and it’s a lot of money for a player whose offense has sharply declined.
Lining up a trade will be easier said than done. Arenado nevertheless acknowledged yesterday that he has thought about the possibility that this week’s homestand could be his final at Busch Stadium (via Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat). The 34-year-old noted that the organization is “heading toward young players, letting them (play).” He said he expects the upcoming offseason to be similar to last winter’s in terms of trade rumors.
Arenado did not tip his hand on his plans for the no-trade clause. He famously killed a deal to Houston last winter when he wanted more time to evaluate their direction after trading Kyle Tucker. It was believed that he only wished to go to the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres or potentially Astros when he better understood their competitive outlook.
The Yankees never showed much interest and have acquired Arenado’s old teammate Ryan McMahon to play third base. The Dodgers and Padres still have Max Muncy (via club option) and Manny Machado, respectively, under contract. Boston could lose Alex Bregman to free agency, but they’ll surely make a push to re-sign him before considering trading for Arenado. The 10-time Gold Glove winner remains a plus defender but has hit .238/.296/.370 in nearly 400 trips to the plate. It’s his worst offensive production in a 162-game season since he was a rookie.
St. Louis wouldn’t have any issue finding interest if they shopped Brendan Donovan. The lefty hitter is also controllable for two more seasons. He’s going through arbitration and will earn a raise on this year’s $2.85MM salary. He’ll presumably make something like $15MM over the next two seasons. That’s well below market value for a Gold Glove utility player who carries a .283/.351/.409 line across 492 trips to the plate.
The Cardinals never seemed to get close on a deal involving Donovan at the trade deadline. That’s despite reported interest from the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers (surely among others). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic floats the possibility of Donovan being an offseason trade candidate. Chaim Bloom will take over baseball operations from John Mozeliak at the beginning of the offseason. He’s probably not going to tear things all the way down, but there’s a case for more earnestly trying to move arbitration-eligible players like Donovan and Lars Nootbaar.
That’d especially be the case if ownership is reluctant to spend on significant rotation upgrades. They have the makings of a potentially competitive lineup. There’s a lot more work to be done on the pitching side. Matthew Liberatore leads the rotation with a 4.30 earned run average. Sonny Gray still has peripherals that look far better than his 4.43 mark, but he’s their only starter who reliably misses bats.
Liberatore’s numbers have fallen off in the second half. Michael McGreevy has a 4.44 ERA with a 14.2% strikeout rate in 79 innings. Miles Mikolas has allowed almost five earned runs per nine; they’ll probably let him walk in free agency. Ground-ball specialist Andre Pallante has had a terrible second half and should probably be in relief.
A lot of the organization’s most talented minor league arms have gone backwards this season. Quinn Mathews could get a look next year but will need to show far better command than he has in Triple-A. Tekoah Roby and Sem Robberse have each undergone Tommy John surgery. Tink Hence has yet to show that he can stay healthy. Fifth overall pick Liam Doyle is now the organization’s clear top pitching prospect but probably won’t be on the MLB radar until the middle of next season at the earliest.
The Cardinals aren’t likely to acquire four starting pitchers over the winter. They’ll need some internal arms to step up. One outside the box candidate could be Kyle Leahy. The 28-year-old has been a full-time reliever over parts of three MLB seasons. Leahy has had a breakout year while working multiple innings, tossing 81 frames of 3.33 ERA ball across 58 appearances. He has made a handful of 2-3 inning outings as one of Oli Marmol’s more trusted arms in the second half.
Katie Woo of The Athletic writes that the Cardinals have been impressed enough with Leahy that they may seriously consider him as a rotation option next season. The 6’4″ righty was a starter early in his minor league career, but he topped out at Double-A in that role. He has been a reliever since the end of the 2022 season.
Leahy is still using a six-pitch mix and has above-average control. He has been better against right-handed hitters but has limited damage reasonably well (.262/.349/.385) versus lefties. It’s not out of the question that he could succeed as a back-end starter. The Cardinals would need to weigh whether the upside of giving him that opportunity is worth removing one of the better pieces from an inexperienced bullpen with Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton and Steven Matz out of the picture.
Is the Astros seriousness about winning still not up to the standards of washed up Arenado?
I suspect that the Astros are no longer interested in Arenado because they have since acquired Correa to play 3rd.
Re: Arenado
“The 10-time Gold Glove winner remains a plus defender”
The thing is, while his glove hasn’t cratered as much as his bat, it still has taken a step backward as well.
The last three seasons, he’s gotten 0, 6, and 4 DRS. Prior to that, he was putting up easy double digit DRS every season.
His OAA this season is sitting at 2, the lowest of his career.
He’s now just a somewhat above average glove with a bad bat.
Unless some team truly believes they have the fix for that bat, it’s hard to see any playoff contender seeing him as a guy worth bringing in.
I still don’t understand why the Cardinals are not even entertaining the idea (at least it seems) of locking down Donnie for at least the next five years or so.
He is the kind of player that they need. Gritty, tough, and gives his all on every at bat, and every play in the field. I don’t get it. End up getting two mediocre players in return that haven’t proven anything at the major league level.
I think that’s something that should be on Bloom’s list.
I feel like I’ve been hearing Donovan trade rumors since his rookie year. He has put up a 114 OPS+ on the dot each of the last 3 seasons, and is a solid defender at multiple poisitions. Why shop him and not try and extend him?
It’s because they’re cheap. I would love to see an extension that keeps Donnie a Cardinal for another 3-4 seasons, though.
I will never understand baseball economics. When guys are making a million a year the team will use every ounce of him up, but when he makes that payday and he’s near the end of it they always say they don’t want to pay for such a decline in stats. Then freaking pay these guys in the first 7 years of their careers when they are putting up huge numbers and pay them less as they age.
Small market, non-competitive teams don’t want what you’re proposing. They want a cost-certainty of operating and revenue-sharing income. Why pay Paul Skenes and Nick Kuntz more when they don’t have to?
That would make it literally impossible for low revenue teams to operate. High draft picks would move heaven and earth to be drafted by a high budget team, and minor leaguers would demand trades.
Gray is a solid #2 starter. Liberatore is a solid #3 or #4 starter. McGreevy is a solid #4 or #5 starter. 2026 is going to be another mid team if they don’t sign two top of the rotation starters. And we all know they won’t!!
There aren’t any available anyway.
They will need to try & pry away a starter from another who has decent pitching. Going the trade route seems to be their best bet. Perhaps Weatherholt could fetch a top of the rotation starting pitcher.
Very optimistic. A solid 2-3-4 for most teams would means they have a good rotation, and I would not say the cardinals have a solid 2-4. They have a solid 3 in Gray and a bunch of 5s and lower.
Liberatore looked great at the start year then pitched poorly. So, maybe he’s a 4.
And I forgot to mention Pallante. He is a solid #7 or #8 starter!
I believe that dollar amount for Arenado in ‘26 is his lux tax figure, which is irrelevant to the Cards. He’s actually going to make only $16m, according to Spotrac and my memory. 2026 was originally his final season but then the Cards tacked one on.
Ugh, another idiot who somehow thinks the Cardinals have any interest in trading Donovan and missed the fact that Arenado’s offense only went down due to playing hurt for a month.
The info on Leahy was interesting, though.