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Sean Manaea

Giants Sign Sean Manaea

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DECEMBER 16: The Giants have officially the signing of Manaea.

DECEMBER 12: Lefty Sean Manaea and the Giants have agreed to a two-year, $25MM deal with an opt-out after the 2023 season, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Manaea is represented by the Boras Corporation.

The deal marks a return to the Bay Area for the 30-year-old Manaea, who was traded from Kansas City to Oakland as a prospect at the 2015 trade deadline as part of the Ben Zobrist deal. Manaea debuted for the A’s the following year and was a steady presence in their rotation throughout his six seasons in Oakland, though he did miss most of the 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery.

Still, with both his career ERA (3.86) and FIP (3.96) under 4.00, Manaea was a fairly attractive arm to teams searching for rotation help after the lockout ended this spring, and so the A’s shipped him to San Diego along with relief prospect Aaron Holiday to acquire prospects Euribiel Angeles and Adrian Martinez. Things didn’t go so well for Manaea in San Diego, however, as he struggled in 2022, posting an unsightly 4.96 ERA (75 ERA+) in 158 innings that his 4.53 FIP only slightly improves upon.

That rough platform season is likely why Manaea was available to San Francisco, who showed interest in him during last week’s Winter Meetings, at such a low price compared to what we’ve seen from the rest of the mid-rotation market. It’s of course possible that Manaea eschewed a larger guarantee in order to secure a chance to test the market again next offseason, hoping to see his results improve in 2023.

In that regard, the deal is similar to the one the Giants signed Carlos Rodon to last offseason, albeit at a much lower AAV of just $12.5MM compared to Rodon’s $22MM. Manaea may prove to be Rodon’s replacement in a rotation that includes Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, and Anthony DeSclafani, should Rodon ultimately sign elsewhere this offseason. Rodon is known to be seeking a seven-year deal this offseason, with the Cardinals and Yankees among those interested.

While it seems unlikely Manaea can imitate Rodon’s sterling 2022 production in 2023, there’s still reason to believe that Manaea can bounce back from his difficult 2022 in the coming season. His strikeout and walk rates of 23.2% and 7.5%, respectively, are roughly in line with his career norms and were actually slightly above league average last year according to Baseball Savant. And for the season’s first three months, Manaea’s numbers were right in line with his career marks. Through the end of June, he’d posted a 3.92 ERA and 3.76 FIP with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. Over the final three months of the season, however, Manaea was rocked for an ERA just over 6.00, with a huge portion of the damage coming in a pair of eight-run drubbings at Dodger Stadium.

Manaea’s biggest problem in 2022 was the long ball, as he allowed a whopping 1.65 home runs per nine innings that doubtlessly contributed to his strand rate of just 67.5% — his lowest in any full season of his career. Moving his home games Oracle Park, one of the most difficult ballparks in the majors for home run hitters, should aid Manaea in his bid to return to form in 2023. If Manaea can post a season more in line with his 2021 performance, where he posted a 3.91 ERA/3.66 FIP in his 179 1/3 innings of work, he’ll justify the investment from San Francisco and be in line for a larger deal, more in line with the four-year, $52MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for him this offseason.

With their starting five for 2023 likely set barring another surprise addition, the Giants seem primed to turn their attention to the lineup, which largely struggled in 2022 with the exception of All-Star Joc Pederson, who returned to the Giants by accepting a qualifying offer early in the offseason. San Francisco already added Mitch Haniger but is rumored to be interested in adding a second outfielder, even after missing on pursuits of Aaron Judge, Brandon Nimmo, and Cody Bellinger.

The Giants are also are expected to address an infield that lost Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria to free agency this offseason, while suffering a considerable step back from shortstop Brandon Crawford after his resurgent 2021 season. The Giants reportedly have Carlos Correa as their top option in the free agent shortstop market, with the Twins and Cubs representing possible competition for Correa’s services. San Francisco also seems likely to look to upgrade their relief corps for next season. Earlier, they were rumored to have interest in pairing Kenley Jansen, who signed with the Red Sox, with Camilo Doval at the back of their bullpen, so a pursuit of another back-end bullpen option like Taylor Rogers seems feasible.

Giants Showing Interest In Sean Manaea

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The Giants are showing interest in free agent starter Sean Manaea, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last night the team was seeking rotation help.

Manaea’s one of a number of mid-tier free agent starting pitchers available. The left-hander is a bit of a bounceback candidate after a rough second half with the Padres, although he’s typically provided teams with solid mid-rotation production. Manaea worked to an ERA between 3.59 and 4.37 during his four full seasons with the Athletics. Oakland’s spacious home ballpark and excellent team defenses certainly helped him, but the Indiana State product also consistently pounded the strike zone and tended to induce ground-balls at a decent clip.

That typically effective track record led San Diego to acquire him from the A’s this past spring. Manaea was expected to fortify an already strong rotation, and he mostly did so through his first few months at Petco Park. At the All-Star Break, he carried a 4.11 ERA with an above-average 23.9% strikeout rate. From the second half onwards, however, he was tagged for more than six earned runs per nine. By year’s end, he owned a career-worst 4.96 mark, and he was shelled for five runs in 1 1/3 innings during his sole postseason outing.

It’s certainly not the way the 30-year-old (31 in February) envisioned closing out his platform year. At the same time, there’s also reason to believe he’ll still have a strong market. Manaea’s strikeout and walk rates in the second half remained good (22.1% and 4.7%, respectively). He was brutally home run prone down the stretch, allowing 2.35 longballs per nine innings. That’s obviously untenable, but he’s unlikely to surrender homers on nearly 19% of his fly balls over a larger sample. Manaea tends to allow a lot of hard contact, but the 2022 campaign was the first in which that translated to serious problems keeping the ball in the yard.

That could point to Manaea being a target for teams with a pitcher-friendly home environment. The Giants have one of the league’s worst outfield defenses, but they expect to bring in a pair of outfielders from outside the organization this winter. Oracle Park also remained one of the more difficult venues for hitters to clear the walls. San Francisco has had a fair bit of success in recent years bringing in starting pitching from the middle of the free agent market. Players like Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani have each done well as bounceback candidates with the Giants, although it’s certainly not guaranteed Manaea will have to take a one-year pillow deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN floated that possibility last week, although the lack of a qualifying offer and the southpaw’s quality strikeout and walk numbers could lead to decent multi-year interest.

Meanwhile, Slusser adds the Giants have engaged representative Scott Boras at this week’s Winter Meetings regarding clients Carlos Correa and Brandon Nimmo. Both are known to be San Francisco targets, with Correa reportedly the team’s preferred option of this winter’s shortstop class. Of course, either player would seem to take a backseat on the priority list for Aaron Judge, to whom the Giants have reportedly offered a deal in the $360MM range. It’s theoretically possible the Giants could remain aggressive after Nimmo even if they land Judge, but it’s hard to envision them nabbing both Judge and Correa — the two top free agents remaining.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Padres Announce NLCS Roster

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The Padres rattled off three victories in a row to take down their division-rivals and advance to the NLCS. After defeating the 111-win Dodgers, San Diego has plenty of momentum as they prepare to take on the Phillies with a spot in the World Series on the line. The Friars will not make any changes to their postseason roster, keeping the same 26-man roster that they beat the Dodgers with.

Right-Handed Pitchers:

Left-Handed Pitchers:

Catchers:

Infielders:

Outfielders:

Though the Padres have made no changes from their NLDS roster, one player of note is lefty starter Sean Manaea, who has not seen game action in two weeks. Currently, San Diego has Yu Darvish lined up for Game 1 and Blake Snell for Game 2. It seems probable that Joe Musgrove will get the ball in Philadelphia for Game 3 in order to keep Musgrove available (three days rest) for a theoretical Game 7. That being said, with Games 3-7 scheduled to be played on five consecutive days, it is possible that Manaea will get his first start of the postseason during the NLCS. Alden González of ESPN reported that Manaea threw to hitters on Monday, possibly in preparation for a mid-series start (via Twitter).

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

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Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter.  Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact.  Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation.  So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future.  It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons.  In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play.  Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates.  However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency.  Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York.  It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain.  Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings.  Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market.  Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers.  San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy.  Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past.  When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern.  There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team.  Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings.  A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact.  Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract.  For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances.  Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved.  The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

Athletics Interested In Andrew Vaughn

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The White Sox were among the many teams showing interest in the Athletics’ available starters, with Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas on Chicago’s target list.  Manaea has since been dealt to the Padres, with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reporting that the White Sox “nearly” landed Manaea instead, and are still looking at Montas.  However, the A’s want young slugger Andrew Vaughn back in return, and the Sox are balking at the demand.

It isn’t surprising that the A’s would make such a big ask, considering that Montas is under team control through the 2023 season.  Likewise, it is natural that the White Sox wouldn’t be eager to part with a former star prospect who was already in the majors less than two years after being picked third overall in the 2019 draft.

Oakland could also be looking to leverage Chicago’s sudden lack of pitching depth, as Lance Lynn (knee surgery) will be on the injured list until late May and Lucas Giolito (abdominal tightness) is also on the verge of being placed on the IL for what looks like could be the majority of April.  The White Sox did recently sign Johnny Cueto, but the veteran will need some ramp-up time after missing all of Spring Training, and might not be available for a few weeks anyway.

Dylan Cease, Dallas Keuchel, Michael Kopech, and Vince Velasquez are now the top four in the White Sox rotation, with Reynaldo Lopez, Jimmy Lambert, or Tanner Banks candidates to fill in for Giolito.  Adding a pitcher of Montas’ caliber would be a major help both in the immediate future and beyond, as this is the last guaranteed season of Keuchel’s contract, and it seems unlikely that the Sox will exercise their $20MM club option on his services for 2023.

Then again, Vaughn is also a possible long-term answer as an heir apparent to 35-year-old Jose Abreu, who is also in the final season of his contract.  There does remain a solid chance that the Sox will sign Abreu to another extension, so Vaughn could play in a first base/DH timeshare with Abreu, or perhaps see more time as a corner outfielder, even if Vaughn isn’t ideally suited for outfield work.

Another complicating factor is that the White Sox could also use Vaughn’s bat right now, given that the injury bug has also extended to the position player side.  Yoan Moncada is on the 10-day IL with an oblique strain and AJ Pollock left yesterday’s game with a sore hamstring, though Pollock doesn’t believe the injury is terribly serious.

Vaughn hit .235/.309/.396 with 15 homers over 469 plate appearances in his 2021 rookie season, resulting in a 93 OPS+/94 wRC+.  These are certainly respectable numbers for a player’s first taste of the majors, especially since Vaughn still has so little overall pro experience.  After being drafted, Vaughn played in 55 minor league games in 2019 but then didn’t see any official game action at all in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, instead doing his work at Chicago’s alternate training site.  Vaughn spoke with The Athletic’s James Fegan about his rookie year and the adjustments he has made both at the plate and in the field, which includes even taking some grounders at third base as a possible fallback option in Moncada’s absence.

Between Vaughn’s prospect pedigree and his big league-readiness, he is the type of player the A’s have traditionally targeted on the trade market, particularly during their most recent selloff of notable veterans.  The likes of Cristian Pache, Shea Langoliers, Adrian Martinez, Kevin Smith, and Adam Oller have all been acquired since the end of the lockout, with Pache, Smith, and Oller already on the active roster.

Padres Acquire Sean Manaea

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The Athletics have traded Sean Manaea to the Padres, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Earlier today, Andy Martino of SNY had tweeted that Oakland had resumed active conversations about Manaea. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Padres will be sending two prospects to Oakland in return. Per Feinsand, the full trade is Sean Manaea and Aaron Holiday for Eruibiel Angeles and Adrian Martinez.

A Manaea trade has seemed inevitable for quite some time now. It was reported prior to the lockout that the A’s were planning on moving just about any player with significant salary and dwindling team control. Once the lockout ended, they made good on those predictions, trading Chris Bassitt to the Mets, Matt Olson to the Braves and Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays. Since Manaea is heading into free agency at the end of this season and is making $9.75MM this year, he was the logical choice as the next guy packing up his bag. He will now head to San Diego, reuniting with manager Bob Melvin, who was another casualty of the Oakland penny-pinching, as the club allowed him to head to the Padres in a salary-dumping move.

The 30-year-old lefty made his MLB debut in 2016 and immediately established himself with a quality season. In 144 2/3 innings, he put up an ERA of 3.86, along with a 20.9% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. He continued to pitch well over the 2017 and 2018 seasons before being stalled by shoulder surgery in September of 2018. That kept him out of action for around a year, as he returned late in 2019. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he seemed to be back to his old self, throwing 54 innings with an ERA of 4.50. In 2021, he logged another 179 1/3 innings with a 3.91 ERA, cranking his strikeout rate up to 25.7% in the process, a career high for a full season.

For the Padres, this furthers bolsters what was already a very strong rotation that includes Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger, Nick Martinez and Chris Paddack, along with up-and-coming options like Reiss Knehr, Ryan Weathers or MacKenzie Gore. Just a few days ago, it was reported that the Padres were considering trading from that rotation depth in order to improve their outfield picture. The addition of Manaea seems to only increase the odds of such a deal coming together.

Their projected outfield currently consists of Trent Grisham in center and Wil Myers in right, with left field being manned by some combination of Jurickson Profar and Matt Beaty. There’s certainly room for improvement over that group, especially for a team hoping to compete with the Dodgers and Giants in the AL West, two teams who easily surpassed the 100-win plateau last year. Recent reports had indicated the club had spoken to the Pirates about a Bryan Reynolds trade, though the last word on that front was that the asking price for Reynolds was “prohibitive.”

The Padres were one of two teams to have paid the luxury tax in 2021, along with the Dodgers. That means they would be subject to escalating penalties if they were to pay the tax again this year. The new CBA bumped up the lowest tax line from $210MM to $230MM, which gave the Padres a bit of breathing space, as their luxury tax number has been between those two numbers for most of the offseason. Since the signing of that new CBA and the end of the lockout, they have been fairly quiet, apart from their acquisition of Luke Voit. With the acquisition of Manaea, their luxury tax number is now just over the line at $233MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Perhaps they are willing to pay the tax yet again, or further trade could allow them to limbo back under the line. Rumors have swirled for years about their attempts to move Eric Hosmer and the four years and $59MM remaining on his deal. Just a few days ago, they were apparently discussing such a deal with the Mets, though those talks have apparently stalled.

For the Athletics, their fire sale has reduced their 2021 payroll to around $50MM in actual dollars, per Roster Resource. They haven’t had a number that low since 2008, leaving aside the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. (Hat tip to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.) That number could potentially drop even lower if the club lines up a deal on Frankie Montas or Ramon Laureano, though they could also add in a veteran on a modest short-term deal, like those they gave to Stephen Vogt and Jed Lowrie.

The rotation in Oakland won’t just be lacking Bassitt and Manaea, as James Kaprielian and Brent Honeywell Jr. are likely to begin the season on the IL. Montas will be at the front of the group if he’s still around, with Cole Irvin, Daulton Jefferies, Paul Blackburn, Adam Oller and Zach Logue among the options to take the spots  behind him.

One of today’s acquisitions, Adrian Martinez, is an option to serve as rotation depth immediately, as he is on the 40-man roster and made it up to the highest levels of the minors last year. In 80 2/3 Double-A innings, he put up a 2.34 ERA along with a 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He struggled a bit in his first taste of Triple-A, throwing 44 1/3 innings with his ERA jumping up to 5.28, along with a deflated strikeout rate of 19.9% and 8.7% walk rate. He’s just 25 years old and has options, meaning he’s likely ticketed for further time in Triple-A.

The other piece of their return will be more of a long-term play, as Angeles is just 19 years old. Last year, he split his time between A-ball and High-A, while lining up at second base, third base and shortstop. In 105 games, his combined slash line was .329/.392/.445, for a wRC+ of 125, along with 19 stolen bases. Although the A’s will need to be patient given his age, he might be the real “get” for Oakland, as he was San Diego’s #12 prospect at MLB Pipeline before the deal, with Martinez coming in at #26.

Alongside Manaea, the Padres are also adding some bullpen depth with the acquisition of Holiday. The 21-year-old was just selected by the A’s last year, in the 13th round of the 2021 draft. He only has 5 2/3 innings of professional experience under his belt at this point, all of that coming in the Complex League last year. Despite that limited resume, R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports relays that he was hitting over 100mph on the radar gun this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Notes: Larnach, Miranda, Rotation, Winder

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The Twins announced this afternoon they’ve optioned corner outfielder Trevor Larnach and infield prospect Jose Miranda to Triple-A St. Paul. Neither player will break camp with the big league club.

Larnach played in just under half of Minnesota’s games as a rookie last season. The former first-rounder and top prospect only managed a .223/.322/.350 line in 301 plate appearances, striking out at a 34.6% clip. Those swing-and-miss concerns resulted in the Twins optioning Larnach back to Triple-A in August, and he’ll start this season in the minors as well.

With a projected regular outfield of Alex Kirilloff, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler, there weren’t everyday at-bats to afford to Larnach early on. The 25-year-old is still a valuable long-term piece for the organization, and they’d evidently prefer to get him regular run in the minors as opposed to having him start the year as a part-time player.

That’s also the case for Miranda, a 23-year-old who broke out with a huge .344/.401/.572 line between the minors’ top two levels. That earned him a place on the back half of Baseball America’s and FanGraphs’ Top 100 Prospects lists this winter, but he’ll head back to St. Paul to start the year. Minnesota has offseason acquisition Gio Urshela at third base, with Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez options at the keystone and designated hitter. Miranda, added to the 40-man roster in November, figures to get his first big league look at some point this year. That’ll be put on hold by the Twins enviable collection of infield depth.

Strong as Minnesota’s position player group looks, the team’s rotation is still a major question mark. The Twins entered the offseason likely needing to add three starters from outside the organization. They’ve done so, acquiring Sonny Gray from the Reds and signing free agents Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. Each of Bundy and Archer comes with durability and performance questions related to tough 2021 seasons, though.

The Twins were recently connected to A’s starters Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea, both of whom would still be marked upgrades to the starting staff. The latest reports suggest Oakland could elect to keep both of those hurlers, and Montas in particular now seems unlikely to be moved before Opening Day. The Twins were linked to Montas/Manaea before they signed Archer on Monday, and it now appears they’ll break camp with a rotation of Gray, Bailey Ober, Archer, Bundy and rookie Joe Ryan.

In an appearance on SKOR North’s Mackey & Judd podcast this week, Darren Wolfson noted the Twins talks with the A’s had “stagnated.” Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press hears the A’s never made a formal ask for anyone from Minnesota in Montas and Manaea discussions. Wolfson suggests the Twins could be willing to revisit discussions on Montas and Manaea at some point, but Minnesota chief baseball officer Derek Falvey indicated this week the team is content with their existing rotation options. “We’ll always stay open-minded to everything,” Falvey said about the possibility of acquiring another starter (via Helfand). “I know I always say that, but that’s true. It’s just at this late stage as we approach Opening Day, it feels like the group is probably in this room.”

Like every team, the Twins will need to rely on more than five starters throughout the course of a 162-game season. Righty Josh Winder, Baseball America’s #6 prospect in the organization, would appear to be the top depth option out of the gate. Winder has yet to make his MLB debut, but he pitched to a 1.98 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates (31.3% and 4.8%, respectively) in 10 Double-A starts last season. The Twins could start him in the St. Paul rotation, but manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) today they’re open to carrying him with the big league club as a long relief option.

The organization no doubt views Winder as a starting pitcher long-term, but keeping him in the MLB bullpen could allow him to stay stretched out and get his feet wet in the big leagues. Given the rather thin rotation, the VMI product figures to be starting games before long.

Latest On Athletics’ Trade Possibilities

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7:39pm: Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweets that rival teams don’t view it as an inevitability that the A’s trade either of Manaea or Montas. Heyman concurs Manaea seems likelier to find himself on the move than Montas but suggests it’s possible Oakland just carries both starters on its Opening Day roster.

2:39pm: It’s been a week since the Athletics’ last trade, which sent third baseman Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays in exchange for a package of four prospects. After the A’s shipped out Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson and Chapman within just a week of the lockout lifting, the expectation was that additional moves would follow.

That’s still likely to be the case, although the pace has slowed. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Oakland’s current focus is on finding a trade partner for lefty Sean Manaea. While the general expectation has been that both Manaea and right-hander Frankie Montas will be moved, Rosenthal suggests the A’s are still still “deciding how to proceed” with Montas.

It’s only logical that for the time being, moving Manaea is the team’s bigger priority. Not only is the 30-year-old Manaea the more expensive of the two arbitration-eligible hurlers — Manaea settled on a $9.75MM salary yesterday, compared to Montas’ $5.025MM settlement — he’s also set to reach free agency after the 2022 season. Montas, meanwhile, is controlled through 2023, so the A’s could conceivably open the season with him in the rotation and shop him at the summer trade deadline, when buyers may have more urgency than they do at the moment.

Of course, the other side of that equation is that there could also be a broader supply of arms available to pitching-hungry clubs in July. At present, Manaea and Montas are the two most available starters on a trade market that still has plenty of clubs looking for arms. The Twins, Royals, Yankees, White Sox, Rays and Tigers have all reportedly spoken to the A’s about potential deals in the past week or so, and other clubs have surely done so more quietly. Oakland’s bargaining power only increased when Reds GM Nick Krall publicly declared that he did not expect to trade either Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle, both of whom had been drawing substantial trade interest themselves.

With Castillo and Mahle ostensibly off the market and few other teams dangling proven big league starters, the A’s have plenty of negotiating leverage. Fast forward to this July, and there may be teams with enhanced motivation to buy — but there will also unquestionably be more arms available in trade. Clubs with current designs on contending will fall out of the playoff picture and look to move short-term assets.

Manaea, the No. 34 overall draft pick back in 2013, is a rental for the 2022 season but a good one. He tied for 22nd in MLB with 179 1/3 innings pitched in a 2021 campaign that saw many clubs aggressively monitor pitcher workloads on the heels of the shortened 2020 schedule. Since returning from shoulder surgery late in the 2019 season, he’s tallied 263 innings of 3.73 ERA ball (3.64 FIP, 3.78 SIERA) with a solid 24.8% strikeout rate and an excellent 5.2% walk rate. As a Boras Corporation client who’s just a year from free agency, Manaea might not be a likely extension candidate for a new team, but he’d bolster nearly any of the other 29 rotations in Major League Baseball.

Montas and Manaea aren’t the only two trade candidates remaining on Oakland’s roster, however. Center fielder Ramon Laureano and reliever Lou Trivino have both been listed as possible trade chips. Laureano, in particular, has been a target for the Marlins at times this winter, according to Craig Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Fish have made no secret of their desire to add a center fielder, and while their interest in Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds is well-known by now, Mish and Jackson report that Miami actually had more serious negotiations with the A’s about Laureano than they did with Pittsburgh about Reynolds.

The two teams discussed myriad scenarios, one of which would’ve sent Laureano and a reliever to Miami. Outfield prospect JJ Bleday was of particular interest to the A’s, per the Herald report — although there surely would have been several other pieces going back to Oakland, particularly if the A’s were to include Trivino or another reliever in the deal. Those talks didn’t culminate in a deal, however, and the Marlins have since deepened their outfield mix with another corner option: Jorge Soler. It’s still feasible that they could rekindle talks, even if they’re presently dormant. Longtime Marlins beat writer Joe Frisaro wrote just this morning that the Fish haven’t closed the door on circling back to the trade market to make one more attempt at finding a new a center fielder.

As things stand, the A’s have just under $59MM on the books for the 2022 season. Their trades of Bassitt, Olson and Chapman have already netted them ten young players: right-hander J.T. Ginn, right-hander Adam Oller, center fielder Cristian Pache, catcher Shea Langeliers, right-hander Ryan Cusick, right-hander Joey Estes, right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, shortstop Kevin Smith, left-hander Zach Logue and left-hander Kirby Snead.

A’s Avoid Arbitration With Montas, Manaea

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5:47pm: The A’s and Manaea have settled on a $9.75MM salary, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (on Twitter). That finalizes the 2022 price tags of two of the trade market’s top arms.

5:40pm: The Athletics and right-hander Frankie Montas have agreed to a $5.025MM salary to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). That’s a bit less than the $5.2MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

There have been a handful of players to settle for higher guarantees than Montas has today, but his price point is among the most notable of any arbitration-eligible player. The righty is probably the top starter available on the trade market, as the A’s have shopped essentially all of their higher-paid options. Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson and Matt Chapman have all been shipped out already; Montas and Sean Manaea are widely expected to be moved as well, with each having already been prominent targets for pitching-needy clubs.

Montas is controllable through 2023, as he’ll be arbitration-eligible again next winter. Manaea, on the other hand, is headed into his final year of control. The southpaw is projected for a $10.2MM salary. That makes Montas the more desirable trade target, as he’s both more affordable this year and any acquiring club could keep him around for an additional season.

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