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Andruw Jones

Andruw Jones and the Nationals

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When we last considered the idea of the Nats signing Andruw Jones, it was April and he seemed in line for a six or seven year contract.  The idea of bringing in Andruw was to create some goodwill with the fans through some rebuilding years, a la the Gil Meche signing in Kansas City.  The consensus of the commenters at MLBTR was that this was a bad idea.

Mark Zuckerman of the Washington Times re-started this conversation yesterday.  He notes that center field is still the Nats’ most obvious need.  Sorry, Nook.  Of course there’s the Stan Kasten connection and the new ballpark.   

However there is now one difference from our April discussion: Jones had an awful 2007 season.  His .314 OBP and .419 SLG are both his second-worst career marks.  Overall in his career he’s at .263/.342/.498.  I’d expect something more like that next year.

Andruw will be 31 when the ’07 season starts.  Given the decent-sized class of free agent center fielders, Scott Boras may apply an old tactic and get Jones a make-good one-year, $15MM deal to rebuild his value.  But many clubs could entertain a low-risk type offer, and maybe someone would cough up $20MM. 

We’ve seen one-year deals in the past when clients didn’t get the offers their agents wanted.  Examples:

  • Ivan Rodriguez isn’t the perfect example I’d originally thought.  Back in the winter of 2002-03, Rodriguez was 31 and coming off a strong season – .314/.353/.542 in 408 ABs.  His agent was Jeff Moorad at the time.  The Cubs and Orioles had interest, with the O’s offering three years at $6MM per.  Pudge wanted $11MM annually, and even bluffed about playing in Japan.  Eventually he went to the Marlins for one-year, $10MM, and led them to glory.  The Fish thought about offering 3/21 after that but Rodriguez switched to Boras and got 4/40 from Detroit.
  • Jeff Weaver had a strong 2005 season for the Dodgers, racking up his second consecutive 220 inning season and winning 14 games.  Interest was strangely tepid, so Weaver went to the Angels for $8.4MM and one year.  At that time it seemed like a nice move for L.A.  World Series heroics couldn’t snag Weaver a big contract last offseason, so he signed the same one-year deal with Seattle.  He should really try to rebuild his value in the NL.
  • The strategy worked perfectly for Kevin Millwood.  Elbow issues cut his 2004 season short so he jumped to the Tribe for one year and $7MM in ’05.  All he did for the Indians was win the AL ERA title.  That earned him a big ol’ 5/60 deal from Texas.   
  • Bengie Molina was coming off his best year, a .295/.336/.446 performance for the Angels in 2005.  The Mets apparently offered him 3/18, but then traded for Paul Lo Duca.  Other suitors dropped out and Molina had to sign with Toronto for one year, $5MM in February.  He had another good year and the Giants liked him for 3/16 the following offseason.

Graziano’s Latest: Andruw, Dunn, Fukudome

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Dan Graziano has a new article up regarding the free agent outfielder crop.  He spoke to two anonymous GMs.  Let’s take a look at some highlights.

  • Andruw Jones has an awful .216/.312/.418 line this year.  He’s been outdone by Shawn Green, Sammy Sosa, Jose Vidro, and Shannon Stewart in terms of OPS.  Nonetheless, Jones isn’t expected to come at a discount.  Scott Boras will just play up the defense, the RBIs, the career totals, whatever. 
  • Graziano says "it’s hard to see" the Reds picking up Adam Dunn’s $13MM option.  This would just be plain dumb on Wayne Krivsky’s part.  Given the $0.5MM buyout, it’s basically like signing Dunn to a one-year, $12.5MM deal.  How many teams would pass on a huge power bat on a no-risk one-year commitment?  If the Reds don’t exercise the option, it will be change for change’s sake.  And a bad decision.
  • Kosuke Fukudome is the dark horse, a possible impact right fielder from Japan.  He will not require a posting fee.  Graziano says the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, and White Sox are among the teams scouting him.  More on Fukudome in a separate post.

Andruw Campaigns For A Starter

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Andruw Jones, perhaps emboldened by his recent hot streak, is openly campaigning for the Braves to acquire a starting pitcher.  Even if John Smoltz comes back strong, one more veteran would fit in nicely behind Tim Hudson and Chuck James.

According to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves were in on Mark Buehrle but Kenny Williams wanted Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Yunel Escobar for him.  That would have been quite a bounty for a rental.

The names I think we’ll be hearing in trade rumors this month as far as starters: Matt Morris, Kyle Lohse, Jason Jennings, Jon Garland, and Jose Contreras.  There should be a few more second or third tier type guys as well (Odalis Perez, Steve Trachsel, Joe Kennedy, Wade Miller, Josh Fogg, Brett Tomko).  I would not be surprised to see Oakland become sellers in short order, but they don’t have much starting pitching to trade with Rich Harden and Esteban Loaiza injured.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Andruw, Lidge, Gwynn Jr.

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Ken Rosenthal has a new Full Count video up at FOXSports for your viewing pleasure.

  • Rosenthal believes that despite Andruw Jones’s lousy May and June, he’ll still cash in this winter as the best available center fielder.  He’ll still provide more offense than Torii Hunter in the long run. 
  • The Nationals are still asking for the moon in trade talks.  If Jim Bowden does start acting reasonable, Dmitri Young, Chad Cordero, Jon Rauch, and Ryan Church could be dealt.  Word via Bill Ladson of MLB.com is that only the Braves have inquired on Young.
  • Brad Lidge is expected to remain an Astro.  The main reason: Drayton McLane still doesn’t think  his team is out of it.  Most simulations a 2% chance or less of reaching the playoffs.  If the Astros finally do acknowledge reality, they’d prefer to trade relievers other than Lidge (ie, Dan Wheeler or Chad Qualls).
  • The Rangers and Brewers were close to a trade: Akinori Otsuka to the Brewers for Tony Gwynn Jr.  Rosenthal seemed to dislike it, but I think it made sense for the Crew.  Regardless, Bill Hall’s injury thwarted the deal as Gwynn will be needed to man center. 
  • The new plan for the Brewers is to call up 29 year-old Grant Balfour, who’s dominated in the minors.  He endured elbow and shoulder woes before undergoing Tommy John surgery in May of ’05.  In the midst of his TJ recovery, Balfour developed the need for shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and labrum.  This guy would be pumping gas if he’d been born a few decades earlier.  After the surgeries, the Twins cut Balfour and the Reds snagged him.  Balfour rehabbed with the Reds but never made it to the bigs; the Brewers claimed him off waivers in October of ’06.  He’s all the way back; Johnny Estrada was singing his praises back in February.

Mailbag: Braves CF

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Nick from Salt Lake City, Utah writes:

If the Braves lose Andruw Jones this offseason, what is the likelihood that Atlanta picks up a quality major league center fielder? Who could it be and what would be the price?

The chances are very good that the Braves pick up a solid center fielder to fill Andruw’s void.  And I’d say it’s about 80% that Jones leaves the Braves after this season.

The Braves could try an internal option for center field in 2008, Brandon Jones.  Jones will be 24 at that point.  He’s a fine athlete with speed, range, and a good arm.  However, the Braves have been using Jones in left field at Double A this year and probably envision him playing that position in the bigs.

Turning to the crop of free agent center fielders, Ken Rosenthal has repeatedly mentioned Mike Cameron as a possibility for 2008.  Cameron lives outside of Atlanta apparently.  Though he will turn 35 in January, the Braves might need to give three years and $30MM to secure Cameron.  That’s not a lot less than Andruw Jones was making annually, but his contract was a huge bargain.

If things get out of hand with the Cameron bidding – and that’s a legitimate possibility – the Braves could turn to Eric Byrnes, Aaron Rowand, Milton Bradley, or even Corey Patterson or Kenny Lofton.  They’ve got options.

It should be noted that Tim Hudson’s salary jumps from $6MM in 2007 to $13MM in 2008.  John Smoltz goes from $8MM to $14MM.  Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano will get decent arbitration raises. 

Swapping Jones for Cameron and holding all else equal could still take the Braves’ payroll from $87MM this year to $100MM in ’08.  Or they could let Bob Wickman go and keep it in the low 90s.   

Boras And Stark Battle Over Andruw

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Interesting debate going on over at David O’Brien’s AJC blog (which is a good read by the way).

ESPN’s Jayson Stark wrote a book, called The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players In Baseball History.  One of the points was that Andruw Jones is overrated currently, because he has lost a step in center field and many folks have not noticed.  I think that’s the gist of it but still have to read the book.  So then Scott Boras called up O’Brien, complaining about how Stark is just profiteering and stir up controversey with the assertion.  Boras also appeared on ESPN to defend his client.  (Incidentally, no contract talks have taken place between Boras and the Braves regarding Jones and O’Brien doesn’t think Andruw will be offering any kind of discount).

Stark then read Boras’s comments on the blog, and took offense.  His response can be read here.  I was all ready to give Stark the upper hand here until J.C. Bradbury stepped in with his analysis of Stark’s rebuttal.  Now I’m back on Boras’s side.

Should Nationals Sign Andruw Jones This Winter?

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Do you believe in the theory that a rebuilding team like the Royals or Nationals needs to make a "splash" as a good faith gesture toward the fanbase?  Thom Loverro of the Washington Times does.  And not just an ill-advised $55 deal like Gil Meche’s – he wants to the Nats to sign Andruw Jones this offseason.

Loverro believes that a new ballpark wouldn’t be enough, and that a superstar needs to be paired with Ryan Zimmerman to keep fans coming through the tough years.  Do I agree with Loverro and Bobby Cox that Jones is in the middle of his prime right now?  No.  But he should age well, and the Nats have nothing going on in center field.  I do agree with Loverro that this expenditure makes more sense than Alfonso Soriano, especially if the price tag is similar. 

Nats President Stan Kasten was also President of the Braves, and wants to build the Nationals in their image.  That means focusing on the farm system and making that splash when the team is ready to contend.  I highly doubt the Nats would seriously consider signing a guy like Jones this winter.  But for a struggling team looking for some goodwill and a contract that might not destroy them in 2013, Jones is the best candidate.

I think in the long-term, the Nationals will still be better off suffering through subpar attendance years and building the team without any dangerously massive contracts. 

In case you’re curious, there are only a handful of quality future free agents who will be under 30 in 2008: Corey Patterson, Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, and Mark Buehrle.

Angels To Chase Andruw Jones?

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A small tidbit from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe: he has an Angels front-office source indicating that Andruw Jones, not Alex Rodriguez, is the marquee free agent of choice for the team this offseason.  Such a signing would probably move Gary Matthews Jr. to left field.  It reminds me of when the Mets were running Carlos Beltran and Mike Cameron out there at the same time.  Good for pitchers. 

Rany Jazayerli wrote last month that Jones probably left $15-30MM on the table when he last signed a contract; he’ll go for full price this winter.  (It’s an interesting column – he feels that Tim Wakefield’s perpetual deal is the worst contract a player has ever signed).

Also, this related rumor kind of got buried yesterday – Ken Rosenthal mentioned that the Braves might go after Cameron if he becomes a free agent.  I’m curious about which team will end up signing Torii Hunter.  Rangers maybe?

Carroll: Andruw Jones, Mark Teixeira Rumors

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Over at Baseball Prospectus, Will Carroll elaborates a bit on some rumored big names mentioned yesterday as trade candidates.

Carroll indicates that John Schuerholz is hard at work and a host of star players are emerging from the rumor mill.  We know the Braves have been shopping Adam LaRoche; Andruw Jones could be available as well if he’ll waive his no-trade.  Available long-term CF options for Atlanta floated by Carroll: Rocco Baldelli, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Markakis.  The last two names are new to me; Markakis is probably capable of moving to CF.

As if that weren’t enough, Carroll names Tim Hudson, Mark Teixeira, and Dontrelle Willis as other trade candidates.  I’m sure any such deal would be quite complicated.  As Buster Olney mentioned recently, it would probably make sense to trade Willis now before he gets injured or posts another uninspiring season.

Angels Pursuing Andruw Jones Trade?

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According to Halos Heaven, the Braves hope to send Andruw Jones to the Angels for Ervin Santana and Nick Adenhart.  Of course, Andruw would have to be amenable to this deal to make it work.

Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein wrote, "Adenhart has come all the way back from Tommy John surgery to establish himself as one of the top righthanders in the minors."  Among right-handed starters, Goldstein ranked Adenhart behind only Homer Bailey and Philip Hughes.

Meanwhile, the L.A. Times (subscription required) says the Angels have made an offer to Alfonso Soriano and have interest in J.D. Drew.  Mike DiGiovanna speculates that Drew could command a four-year, $56MMish deal.

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