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Barry Bonds

Padres Interested In Bonds

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Ken Rosenthal just keeps churnin’ ’em out, and I keep passin’ ’em along.  This is a good one: the Padres are interested in Barry Bonds for left field.  In 493 plate appearances Bonds had the best OBP in baseball this year at .454.

While one might think PETCO could diminish Bonds’s power, Bill James says otherwise in his latest handbook.  After bringing in the fences a little bit, PETCO played very differently for left-handed power hitters in 2006.  While left-handed HRs were deflated by 38% over 2004-05, they were inflated by 51% in 2006.  I think Bonds would do just fine.

Will Bonds Hot Streak Affect Future?

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Since the beginning of August, Barry Bonds has been on a tear.  He’s hitting .329/.459/.709 over those 27 games.  The slugging ranks 4th among Major Leaguers, behind Travis Hafner, Ryan Howard, and Adam LaRoche. 

Overall, Bonds’s 1.001 OPS this season ranks 11th in baseball, right behind Miguel Cabrera.  Any reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated.  Bonds has appeared in 112 games this season, or about 81% of the Giants’ contests.  The 130 game pace beats preseason expectations.  He also sports the game’s best OBP at .462.  The OBP leaderboard is littered with similarly slow-footed sluggers, so we shouldn’t hold that against him too much.  The one true flaw in the 42 year-old’s game is his left field defense.   

Aside from Ryan Howard, Bonds has been the game’s hottest hitter over the last week.  It’s sparked more debate about his future.  Bonds says he’d like to stay, but it’s unclear whether the Giants want him back to pursue Hank Aaron’s record.  A lot of folks are dismissing the once-popular destination of Oakland because of Frank Thomas’s resurgence.  But if Thomas sticks to his desire for a two-year deal, the A’s seem likely to let him walk.  If they can secure Bonds as their DH for less than $10MM it could be a steal.

The Yankees are an intriguing option if they choose to let Gary Sheffield go and use Giambi or Bonds at first base.  Same goes for the Red Sox, who could stick David Ortiz at first and create the most dangerous trio in baseball.  Bonds could also fit with the Tigers, Mariners, or Rangers in ’07.  The Dodgers could be a long shot; they could use Bonds at first base for a year if Nomar Garciaparra departs.

      

Steroids Were Banned In 1991

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The Houston Chronicle’s Richard Justice always has something interesting to say in his blog.  Yesterday he cleared up a common misconception about steroids being banned only in recent years:

"Commissioner Fay Vincent sent the clubs a memo in 1991 reminding them that players were forbidden from taking any illegal substance. He specifically mention steroids in the memo and encouraged the clubs to take a get-tough policy on players thought to be using steroids.

What could a team have done if it suspected a player of using steroids? Probably nothing.

Vincent simply wanted to be on the record as letting the clubs know that steroid use was against the rules and that they shouldn’t be afraid to confront a player.

There was no testing for steroids until 2003 (after being part of the 2002 labor agreement).

The notion that Bonds wasn’t breaking any rules is ridiculous. He was. He knew he was."

Bonds Used Wide Array of PEDs

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Must read:

Wow.  Bonds sounds like a chemistry experiment.  Could the publicity surrounding this drive him into retirement?

Interestingly, ESPN and Fox Sports haven’t picked up on this, probably because they don’t want to drive traffic to SportsIllustrated.  C’mon guys, you can’t ignore this for much longer.  Even MLB.com still hasn’t mentioned the story.

UPDATE:  Now that the major outlets have begun discussing the new evidence, we should make a tally of how many times the word "damning" is used.

Can Bonds Top Aaron In 2006?

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Barry Bonds needs 48 home runs to become the record holder.  With the recent relevation that 2006 will be his last season, it’s almost become a foregone conclusion that he’ll never hit #756.  Said Ken Rosenthal:

"If this season is Bonds’ last, Aaron’s mark almost certainly will be out of reach, saving MLB the embarrassment of celebrating a tainted slugger passing one of the game’s most dignified greats."

Rosenthal pulls no punches in tonight’s column, calling for Bonds to retire now and put everyone out of their misery.

Rather than engage in the typical judgment of Bonds as a person, I’m far more interested in his chances of pulling an upset and topping Aaron in 2006.  Bonds needs 47 to tie and 48 to own the record.

The over/under on games played for Bonds in 2006 is 120, a number thrown out by Giants GM Brian Sabean last October.  I don’t want to get all crazy statistical on you here, so let’s keep it simple and see how many games played Bonds might need to get those 48 HR.  Below is a handy chart; feel free to skip it if you hate numbers.

Year PA HR PA/HR G PA/G
2005 52 5 10.40 14 3.71
2004 617 45 13.71 147 4.20
2003 550 45 12.22 130 4.23
2002 612 46 13.30 143 4.28
2001 664 73 9.10 153 4.34
2495 214 11.66 587 4.25

The PA/HR indicates how many plate appearances Bonds needed per HR that year.  You can see that his 2005 pace was his best since he set the single season record, though it’s probably silly to draw conclusions from such a tiny sample.  But for the sake of argument, let’s say Bonds performs at the exact same pace as 2005 this season.  In that case, he’d need to play in 135 games to break the record.  Don’t you think he’d find a way to tolerate the pain and get into those extra 15 games?

In our example above, Bonds was getting less than four plate appearances per game.  Felipe Alou was careful with his superstar, as Bonds didn’t play until September 12th.  Though he’ll continue to be pulled early in 2006, let’s say that Bonds agrees to bat second and somehow manages to get exactly four plate appearances per game.  It’d still be less than any of the four seasons before 2005.  In this case, Bonds would only need 125 games to break Aaron’s record.

Bonds will need anywhere from 440 to 660 plate appearances to hit 48 home runs.  In the best case he’ll go deep every ten plate appearances and in at the worst it might take fourteen.  It’s all just a numbers game, but Bonds has an entirely legitimate chance to hit his 756th HR in 2006.

Bill James pegged Bonds’s chance at 756 at 28% in his latest book, while A-Rod has a 37% chance.  Albert Pujols has a 16% likelihood.  So all the Bonds haters can take solace in the distinct possibility that one of today’s untainted stars will glide right by his HR total in ten or fifteen years and even make it to 800.

Trade Candidates Part 1

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With the hot stove not all that hot at the moment, I thought I’d run down some guys who could be traded between now and July 31st in an attempt to peer into the future.  Part 1 of the series will focus on some of the players in their contract year.

Barry Bonds is unlikely to be dealt, given that the Giants have pinned most of their offensive hopes on him.  But if, for some reason, the team is out of contention in July and Bonds is looking more awful than usual in the field, a deal to the AL could be in the cards.  Adding Bonds at DH could mean 4-5 extra wins in the second half alone, so I’d expect a big bounty even with his $18MM salary and impending free agency.

We’re all pretty much assuming Jose Contreras will be dealt.  Some say it’d be most prudent for the Sox to wait til spring training and take stock before sending him off to the Mets, Phillies, or wherever else.  On the other hand, if there was ever a time to sell high, it’s right now.

One name I haven’t seen thrown about in trade rumors at all is Greg Maddux.  I assume it’s because he’s over 40 and makes $9MM in 2006, but Mad Dog could be a big help to a contender at the deadline.  I’ve projected a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; he’s got plenty left.  Even if the Cubs had to eat a few mil, it’d make more sense to trade Maddux than Jerome Williams.  If the health of Wood, Prior, and Miller works out in their favor the Cubs could have a surplus.

Jason Marquis is projected to post a 4.43 ERA in 200 innings.  He’d be serviceable as rental for the season, and he’s still on the right side of 30.  I’m not sure which teams will be chomping at the bit to give him the three year, $21MM extension he’ll require, but someone will.

Mark Mulder is also under 30, though he’s shown some ugly trends over the past three seasons.  It’ll be interesting to see how Walt Jocketty views Mulder – perhaps Mulder will take the St. Louis discount to keep that top-notch defense behind him?

It seems that Andy Pettitte wouldn’t be dealt by the Astros midseason pretty much no matter what.  Even when the Astros have been counted out they’ve made the playoffs, so it’d be impossible to justify trading Pettitte to the fanbase.

I’m fairly certain the Cubs will sign Juan Pierre to a long-term deal.  Especially if he hits .309 as projected and impresses the old hands with his bunting skills and work ethic.  Politically, Jim Hendry almost has to keep Pierre around in case one of the three pitchers sent to Florida pans out.

Jason Schmidt could be a hot commodity, but, like Bonds, is a long shot to be dealt.  I think the Giants would look for a young bat in return.

More impending free agents and trade candidates to come…

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