Barry Zito Giants Projections
Check out my new Barry Zito Giants projection over at RotoAuthority.com.
The new ZiPS projection for Zito calls for a 4.00 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 216 innings.
Haven’t seen Zito’s PECOTA quote yet but I’m sure it’s forthcoming.
Surveying the blog world on the signing:
McCovey Chronicles seems confused. I can sympathize; I felt this way when the Cubs signed Alfonso Soriano. El Lefty Malo is kind of neutral about the signing. Athletics Nation is going through the five stages of grief, on the other hand.
Giants Sign Barry Zito
UPDATE: Peter Gammons is reporting that the Giants have signed Zito for seven years and approximately $126MM. The deal is said to include an $18MM option for 2014. The Yankees did not make a formal offer. San Francisco’s rotation now looks like this:
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Noah Lowry
Matt Morris
Jonathan Sanchez
UPDATE: T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reports that the Rangers have been told Zito has rejected their six-year, $80MM offer. A source told Sullivan that the Rangers expect Zito to sign with San Francisco.
According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Giants are the frontrunners for Barry Zito and are willing to give him a $100MM contract. The Yankees, Mets, and Rangers aren’t expected to be in that ballpark and don’t want to give him six years. Seattle, however, could get crazy and make such a bid. That would cap a terrible offseason for Bill Bavasi in grand fashion.
The Yankees talked to the Giants about Randy Johnson, but Brian Sabean was not interested. Word is that Johnson is not old enough for San Francisco.
One more note from the column – Sherman mentions Tomo Ohka as a lesser option for Texas. Whether that’s purely speculation is unclear.
Zito seems unlikely to sign before New Year’s Day.
Rangers To Boras: Call Us Back
The Rangers won’t put up with Scott Boras playing hard to get much longer – they want a response on Barry Zito by this weekend or else they’ll move on. Boras’s leverage with Texas has decreased with their acquisition of Brandon McCarthy.
The implication of the weekend deadline is that Texas’s offer still stands. There had been reports that they were all but out of the Zito sweepstakes. Meanwhile, Boras hopes to pit the Yanks and Mets against each other for Zito. At the least, neither New York team is acting desperate right now.
Back to McCarthy for a second – is there more to this story?
Giants Offered Zito Four Years?
Will Carroll posted yesterday at BP Unfiltered with some info from the rumor mill.
Carroll confirms that growing sentiment that the Rangers are out on Barry Zito. He also volunteers some new info: the Giants offered a four-year deal to the southpaw. That would have to be at least $70MM. Carroll expects a decision from Zito next week.
He also hints at a big three-team deal with three major players involved. Will cruelly decided not to name names.
The Barry Zito Market
First, let’s start with the White Sox. Multiple emailers have told me that SNY’s baseball insider Seth Everett reported yesterday that he thinks Chicago might join the Barry Zito chase. I can’t vouch for this report as I didn’t see it myself. Regardless, the rumor is making the rounds. Here’s why I think it would be highly unlikely:
1. While no team loves Scott Boras, the White Sox have a particular distaste for him.
2. Jerry Reinsdorf has a policy: no contracts over three years for pitchers. That came into effect after they signed Jaime Navarro for four years (he was awful).
3. It doesn’t fit in with Kenny Williams’s apparent plan at all.
Meanwhile, Jon Daniels is "not terribly encouraged" of the Rangers’ chances at signing Zito, mentioned on the heels of his Brandon McCarthy acquisition.
The New York Daily News reports that the Mets have not yet made an official offer. It appears that the Mariners and Giants are still involved.
Mariners In On Zito?
Larry Stone of the Seattle Times calls the Mariners a "decided longshot" in the Barry Zito sweepstakes, but also writes of rumblings in the baseball world that they could make him an offer. Given the likely price and commitment, I don’t think a Zito signing would redeem Bill Bavasi’s offseason.
The rotation as it stands today:
Felix Hernandez
Jarrod Washburn
Miguel Batista
Horacio Ramirez
Jake Woods
Basically, King Felix plus four guys who pitch to contact. The White Sox made it work in ’05 with great defense, durability, and a little luck. Will the 2007 Mariner staff have those qualities?
Mets To Woo Zito, Pass On Giles
According to the New York Post, David Wright will put on the charm to attempt to reel in Barry Zito for the Mets. He’s offered to give Zito a tour and basically questions his manhood if he plays elsewhere. But if the Mets, aren’t willing to go to the six-year, $100MM range, Zito won’t be joining them.
Meanwhile, Willie Randolph made it clear that Jose Valentin, (and presumably not Marcus Giles), will be at second for New York in 2007. That’s a shame, because Giles is probably the better bet. Some team, perhaps Tampa Bay, may have a bargain on its hands in Giles.
A source tells me that various clubs are asking about Double A first baseman Michel Abreu, a Cuban refugee. I think the return would be limited given that he may be turning 32 in February. Despite his age, Abreu did post a .900+ OPS at Double A and in the AFL this year.
Rangers Rotation Options
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, via MercuryNews.com, is reporting that Mark Mulder has received an offer from Jon Daniels and the Texas Rangers. The Rangers were rumored to be in the forefront of the Barry Zito race, but seem to be coming to grips with the idea that they may not be able to commit to what Zito will probably yield this off-season. The Rangers have also shown interest in Andy Pettitte, but that seems like a bit of a long shot with the Astros and Yankees as the favorites to land him.
If the Rangers could actually pull off signing Mulder and Zito in the coming days/weeks, they’d be added to a rotation that currently includes Vincente Padilla and Kevin Millwood. First, they’ve got to fend off the Mets, and all the other suitors, for the rights to Zito.
NOTE: I apologize for the typos. Evan Grant writes for the Dallas Morning News, but the link went to the MercuryNews.com site. Also, obviously, Jon Daniels is the Rangers’ GM, not Jeff Daniels.
Yanks, Giants Considering Zito
Scott Boras must’ve been pleased – Yankees GM Brian Cashman met with him Wednesday night to discuss Barry Zito, among others. However, speculation is that the Yankees will not go up to the 6/96 range said to be occupied by the Rangers and possibly Mets.
The Yankees remain focused on Andy Pettitte. Other notes from George King’s column:
The Yanks did talk Richie Sexson with the Mariners, but insisted Carl Pavano be involved. Seattle said no. They’ve also got some interest in Eliezer Alfonzo of the Giants as a trade target.
One free agent on the radar is Dustin Hermanson. The White Sox declined Hermanson’s $3.5MM option, but he can probably top that if he shows good health.
Meanwhile, the Contra Costa Times says "The Giants continued to go hardest after left-hander Barry Zito, even though they believe he could command an annual salary of $20 million over five or six years." Yikes.
Mariners Like Zito
It’s not a given that the Mariners get Jason Schmidt. In fact, they are "in the mix" for Barry Zito.
Reportedly, Scott Boras told the Rangers that the Ms were in on Zito. Can such a claim be trusted? Moreso than the yearly salary, it seems that Seattle would be turned off by the idea of a six-year contract. Maybe they could do like the Dodgers did with Furcal, up the salary to decrease the years.