Rosenthal On Mariners, A’s, Putz
The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…
- The Mariners and A's are not thinking about selling off veterans at the trade deadline. Both clubs plan to go for it.
- Tough decision for the Mets after the season: do they exercise J.J. Putz's $9.1MM option for 2010? Cot's Baseball Contracts says it's an $8.6MM club option with a $1MM buyout.
- Rosenthal says one GM views the recent DL trips for Dontrelle Willis, Chien-Ming Wang, and Daisuke Matsuzaka as possible abuse of the system.
- Will Barry Zito continue to be decent this year? His control and groundball rate have been much improved and his average fastball velocity is up by 1.6 mph. The .250 BABIP doesn't figure to last though. Zito is owed $87.5MM for 2009-13, plus he has an $18MM option for 2014 that may vest.
Olney’s Latest: Willis, Zito
Buster Olney touches on Dontrelle Willis and Barry Zito, two lefties long-struggling to make a comeback.
- Willis may not make the Tigers rotation. Instead, "rival talent evaluators" believe he will either be sent to the minors to continue to work, or be released. Willis hasn't impressed this spring, allowing 17 H, 7 BB, and 12 ER over 8.1 IP. Olney says scouts can't think of an example of a pitcher who has regressed as much as Willis and made a successful comeback.
- Zito is receiving mixed reviews with a fastball either in the range of either 80-82mph or 83-85mph. Says Olney, "… if he were to just give the Giants a chance to win games over the last five years of his deal, the club would be thrilled. Give Zito credit for this: He is trying like heck to make this work."
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Tigers, Braves, Red Sox, Pirates
Today is free agent Orlando Hudson’s 31st birthday and the 29th birthday of Garrett Atkins, the subject of many recent trade rumors.
Also, on this date 10 years ago, Kevin Brown became the first player to sign a contract worth at least $100MM, when he signed a seven-year/$105MM contract with the Dodgers. The deal came when Brown was 34, one season after going 18-7 with a 2.38 ERA. Brown’s first two seasons with the Dodgers (18-9, 3.00 and 13-6, 2.58) were solid, but he would only make 29 starts in years three and four combined. Since then, two pitchers have signed deals for at least six years. Mike Hampton and Barry Zito. That doesn’t bode well for C.C. Sabathia, but it’s a small sample size…With the winter meetings now wrapped up, let’s take a look at what is being said in the Blogosphere…
- Take 75 North feels the Tigers are going to regret acquiring Edwin Jackson and lament the loss of Matt Joyce.
- The Detroit Tigers Weblog does not get the Edwin Jackson/Matt Joyce deal noting that at least Joyce has shown signs of being a very good player.
- When Sid Slid weighs the merits of acquiring Jake Peavy or A.J. Burnett and sees Burnett as the better option.
- Infield Chatter warns the Red Sox about signing Mark Teixeira, feeling Theo Epstein should be more concerned with acquiring a pitcher and noting the Red Sox have Lars Anderson waiting in the minors.
- Pirate Revolution feels the Pirates need to move Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson and John Grabow to unblock the paths of younger players.
- DraftInfo has a Q&A with Max Stassi, a high school catcher that is projected to be selected in the first round.
- Fire Brand of the American League takes a look at the impact C.C. Sabathia will have on the AL East.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Teixeira, Lowe, Everett
Time to discuss Ken Rosenthal’s latest…
- Mark Teixeira is likely to sign before Manny Ramirez. The Nationals and Orioles are in the mix, but the Angels and Red Sox are more likely destinations.
- One GM predicted Raul Ibanez will receive a three-year deal worth $8-12MM per year. Not exactly going out on a limb there. ESPN’s Jayson Stark named a dozen teams that have expressed interest.
- Rosenthal says the Mets are more likely to sign Brian Fuentes or Francisco Rodriguez than to acquire a closer via trade. Doesn’t exactly fit with Stark’s statement that J.J. Putz would go to the top of the Mets’ list if available.
- Scott Boras emphatically disputed the notion that he wants a Barry Zito-like contract for Derek Lowe.
- Rosenthal wonders if Adam Everett would make sense for the Tigers.
Brown on Sabathia, Teixeira, Lowe, Peavy
In his latest article, Tim Brown at Yahoo! Sports considers a possibility that others have discussed: maybe C.C. Sabathia doesn’t want to play for the New York Yankees. He certainly has options–Brown’s list includes the Dodgers, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox, Mariners, Tigers, and of course, the Brewers.
Not signing C.C. would increase the likelihood that the Yankees make a serious offer to Mark Teixeira. Nick Swisher seems to have the starting job at first base for now, but failing to land Sabathia might shift the Yankees’ attention to all three of Teixeira, A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe, says Brown.
Lowe might take his time before signing a new deal this offseason, with the news that Scott Boras is looking for the same average annual value obtained previously by Barry Zito ($18MM).
Finally, Brown notes that Padres GM Kevin Towers is waiting to hear from the Cubs about the possibility of continued trade talks regarding Jake Peavy, now that Ryan Dempster has been signed.
Odds And Ends: Beckham, Rangers, Peterson, Drew
A few more minor notes from the MLBiverse…
- Marc Lancaster is reporting that Tim Beckham, the top pick of the Rule 4 draft, will be visiting Tropicana Field at the end of the week and his father believes that a deal will be in place by the end of the weekend. The rest of the first rounders could sign quickly once Beckham and the Rays set the benchmark.
- Jamey Newberg wonders if the Rangers will have a hard time making trades because their farm system is so deep. The Rays might have the same problem.
- Jeff Passan names his All-Overpaid and All-Underpaid teams.
- Could Rick Peterson reunite with Barry Zito in San Francisco?
- Dave Cameron says J.D. Drew was worth the money.
- A reader emailed in saying he saw Mets scout Jerry Krause at the White Sox-Pirates game. Krause might be the game’s most publicly recognizable scout.
Stark’s Latest: Zito, Anthony Reyes, Varitek, Inoa
ESPN’s Jayson Stark has been working the phones, and the result is his latest Rumblings and Grumblings column.
- Stark talked to an official from a "pitching-starved" team. This person said the Giants would have to eat at least $80MM of Barry Zito‘s remaining $112.5MM if they want to trade him. One scout suggested Zito’s only chance at revival is a reunion with Rick Peterson.
- The Cards’ Anthony Reyes is "eminently available." Problem is, John Mozeliak has a high asking price for the 26 year-old hurler.
- Edwin Jackson remains a hot commodity, but there’s no reason for the Rays to move him.
- How much will Scott Boras want from the Red Sox for a Jason Varitek extension? If it’s in the Jorge Posada four-year, $52MM neighborhood, there’s no chance.
- Stark informs us of a highly sought-after 16 year-old Dominican pitcher named Michel Inoa. The kid could get a signing bonus north of $1.5MM. The Astros are one club interested in Inoa.
Odds and Ends: Bonds, Zito, Bush
Today’s link compilation.
- Dusty Baker spoke to Barry Bonds on the phone a few weeks ago, and came away feeling that Bonds does not miss baseball.
- A mere ten million bucks, a team can eat that. But, as Andrew Baggarly says, "They don’t make mouths big enough to eat the roughly $112.5 million that Barry Zito is guaranteed." Zito could be exiled to the bullpen.
- Dave Bush went unclaimed by the other 29 teams because with option waivers, the team can pull the player back if claimed.
- Jim Callis tosses out some options for the Astros with the 10th pick, noting that the team is likely to adhere to slotting guidelines.
- Peter Abraham runs through the available catcher options for the Yankees now that Jorge Posada is DL-bound.
Sabathia’s Future Value Remains Strong
Jon Heyman weighs in on C.C. Sabathia, his early season struggles and his impending free agency. Heyman notes that Sabathia and his 13.50 ERA are "costing himself millions by the pitch", even going so far as to say that CC could stand for "Complete Choke."
Heyman lists four players that had huge walk-years (Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, B.J. Ryan) and four players that struggled in their walk year (Andruw Jones, Jason Jennings, Jermaine Dye, Jeff Weaver). The problem with this list, is that there is not a single player similar to Sabathia. That is, there is not one left-handed ace in the bunch. As far as free agents go, there is nothing more valuable than a left-handed power pitcher in his prime.
The one player that Sabathia should be compared to is Barry Zito.
Zito had win totals of 14, 11, 14 and 16 and ERA+ of 134, 101, 113 and 116 in the four years prior to free agency and still managed to collect a 7-year, $126MM contract. On the other hand, Sabathia’s last three seasons included win totals of 15, 12 and 19 and ERA+ of 104, 140 and 143. In addition, Sabathia is a year younger in ’08 than Zito was the year prior to free agency.
Sabathia may indeed be costing himself a few million dollars, but in the end he is still a left-handed power pitcher in his prime and will almost certainly eclipse the $126MM contract signed by Zito.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
Red Sox To Let Beckett Walk After 2010?
In Peter Gammons latest piece, he explores the trickle-down effect that the extension signed by Johan Santana will have on other pitchers. While the article focuses on pitchers closer to free agency (ie. C.C. Sabathia), there was one surprising quote from an unnamed Red Sox official:
We’d better enjoy Josh Beckett the next three years. Because we won’t be able to sign him after his deal is up after 2010.
Beckett, who finished second in the Cy Young voting this past season, will be 28 on Opening Day and is scheduled to make $9.5MM this season, $10.5MM next season, and has a $12MM team option for 2010. While Beckett will certainly command top-dollar on the open market, it is hard to imagine he would seek a deal in the same range as Santana or Barry Zito, even with inflation factored in. Both Santana ($137.5MM) and Zito ($126MM) are lefties and signed their deals prior to their age 29 season. Beckett, a righty will be 31 when he begins his next deal. Still it is interesting to note that the Red Sox may have already resigned to the idea of not retaining the services of their ace past 2010.