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Today’s Arbitration Decisions

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The decision whether to offer your own free agent arbitration can affect your team in two ways: you may end up retaining a player you didn’t want, or you may score a draft pick or two as compensation.  With that in mind let’s run down the rumors regarding some Type A and B free agents.

  • The Red Sox plan on offering arbitration to Type B Eric Gagne.  Worst case scenario, they hang onto him for one more year.  Best case, they get a sandwich pick.
  • The Astros have to decide on Trever Miller and Mark Loretta.  Both are Type Bs, but the Astros might not want them back.  Richard Justice notes that the old Astro regime made a mistake not offering arbitration to Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte.
  • The Angels decided not to offer arby to Bartolo Colon, because the most they could give him would be a 20% pay cut.  So best case scenario they could get him for one year, $11.2MM.  Colon is not a Type A or B, so there’s no compensation regardless.
  • The Phils will offer arb to Aaron Rowand but not Freddy Garcia.  Rowand is a Type A, Garcia a Type B.  It’s a no-brainer with Rowand, who will hopefully net them a first-round pick plus a supplemental depending on who he signs with.  With Garcia they risked getting burned as he might’ve accepted.   
  • The D’Backs will offer arbitration to Livan Hernandez, who will likely decline it to pursue a three-year deal.  He’s a Type B so they’ll snag a sandwich pick.
  • The Padres will offer arbitration to Michael Barrett, and Kevin Towers actually hopes he accepts.  No worries if he doesn’t – Barrett is a Type A.  The Friars will also offer arby to Mike Cameron and Doug Brocail.  Brocail nets them a sandwich pick for sure; Cameron still has a slight chance of accepting.
  • The Braves did not offer arb to Andruw Jones but did for Ron Mahay.  Both are Type Bs; I’m surprised they didn’t want to risk Andruw returning on a one-year deal.

Padres Rumors: Cameron, Jenkins, Colon

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UPDATE, 11-28-07 at 10pm: Krasovic has an update on the Union-Tribune’s sports blog.  Cameron’s agent said tonight that he would decline the Padres’ offer of arbitration.  That doesn’t mean the Padres still can’t sign him, but it seems unlikely.  Krasovic also notes that the Friars are pursuing Japanese reliever Kazuo Fukumori.  As you know, they brought him in for a workout previously.  The Rockies and Red Sox have been linked to him in the past. 

FROM 11-28-07 at 10:40am:

Tim Sullivan and Tom Krasovic make are a productive tandem for Padres rumors.  Sullivan and Krasovic both posted new articles today.

  • Sullivan says the Padres will probably offer arbitration to Mike Cameron.  Cameron will then decide whether to accept by December 7th.  It wouldn’t make sense for the Padres to move on a center fielder until that is resolved.  It’s also possible that the Padres just sign Cameron to a two-year deal – they’re sitting on a counteroffer from Cameron’s camp.
  • The Padres admit to interest in Andruw Jones, but it seems like a longshot.  They probably won’t go past one year, and even if Jones accepts that it’s not a good ballpark to rebuild value.
  • Sullivan names other center field possibilities: Aaron Rowand, Gary Matthews Jr., Reggie Willits, and Coco Crisp.
  • As for left field, Krasovic notes that the Padres met with Geoff Jenkins yesterday.  That might allow Scott Hairston to move to center if all of the above options fail.
  • On the pitchiing front, Buster Olney notes that the Padres have expressed interest in Randy Wolf, Bartolo Colon, and Mark Prior.

Rangers Rumors: Dunn, Hamilton, Kemp

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MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan has some interesting hot stove banter surrounding the Rangers.

  • A three-year deal for Kosuke Fukudome or a two-year pact for Mike Cameron might be the most sensible options to fill the Rangers’ center field void.  Aaron Rowand is probably too expensive.
  • While the Rangers have a touch of interest in Adam Dunn and Coco Crisp, they prefer the idea of acquiring a young bat.  Names they like: Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp.  Sullivan notes that the Rangers have talked to the Reds about Josh Hamilton.
  • If the Rangers sign starting pitching it’s likely to be of the injury comeback variety – Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Jason Jennings.
  • Eric Gagne is still under consideration to be signed for their vacant closer role.

D’Backs Eyeing Clement, Colon

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One fact I foolishly didn’t consider when predicting Randy Wolf would sign with Arizona is that as an organization they almost never give incentives in contracts.  This was a big factor a year ago when the Diamondbacks were making a pitch to Mark Mulder.

However, maybe we shouldn’t rule the D’Backs out on pitchers coming back from injuries.  That’s where the bargains are.  Today Nick Piecoro reported that Josh Byrnes has checked in with the agents for Bartolo Colon and Matt Clement.  Maybe they could offer one year, $10MM to Colon or one year, $6MM to Clement as a way of compensating for the lack of incentives. 

Since Arizona doesn’t need added uncertainty and doesn’t offer incentives, Piecoro still expects them to add a more reliable starter via trade.  Carlos Gonzalez is the primary chip.  Miguel Montero and Albert Callaspo also could be useful pieces.  Even Jose Valverde or Orlando Hudson could go in a blockbuster.  Ten days ago Piecoro noted that Ervin Santana and Jeremy Bonderman are two possible targets for the D’Backs.  The Tigers, looking to add a starter, probably wouldn’t part with Bonderman.  I would also expect the Byrnes to inquire on Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, and Erik Bedard. 

Rumor Roundup: Colon, Barrett, Clement, Monroe

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Rounding up some of today’s rumors…

Mariners Searching For Starters

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John Hickey has an update on the Mariners’ starting pitching targets.  The options look grim.

As far as trade targets, there’s always Johan Santana and Dontrelle Willis.  The Mariners have long had their eye on Dontrelle, so maybe they’d offer a Wladimir Balentien/Jeff Clement package.

Carlos Silva might be on the radar, but Hickey says the vibe is that he could get north of $12MM per season.  A better deal might be Hiroki Kuroda, who is estimated to earn $7-9MM annually by Hickey.  The Mariners may have the edge on Kuroda because of their location and Japanese catcher.  I keep reading that Kuroda throws in the mid-90s…forgive me if I’m skeptical. 

Hickey notes that Bartolo Colon might also be on the radar, and implies that they could pick up Carl Pavano on a whim if he’s released.

Nats Like Andruw, Livan, Jennings, Colon, Glavine

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UPDATE, EVENING OF 11-6-07:  MLB.com’s Bill Ladson has some more good Nationals information.  His source says that both Livan Hernandez and Tom Glavine are interested in the club, but they only have the budget for one of them.  Glavine makes more sense.  Ladson also mentions that Bowden has his eye on Rocco Baldelli, and idea I like.  I can’t really think of a great match for a trade though.   

FROM MORNING OF 11-6-07:

According to the Washington Post, Nationals president Stan Kasten recently met with Andruw Jones at the center fielder’s home in Atlanta.  Kasten, of course, was formerly president of the Braves.

Kasten’s contact with Jones is described as "extremely preliminary."  That makes sense, since technically the two parties are not allowed to talk dollars and cents.  But come on – it’s not like Andruw’s house is bugged by MLB.  The Nationals’ open-minded pledge has already led them to contact Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand as well.

Barry Svrluga also reports that the Nats have touched base with three starters: Livan Hernandez, Jason Jennings, and Bartolo Colon.  The team’s desire to get a veteran starter on a one-year deal probably rules out a return of Livan.  But Jennings or Colon could definitely work.  I imagine Livan is going to wait until Carlos Silva signs before inking a contract.

Mariners Hot Stove Chatter

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John Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer discusses the Mariners’ offseason situation in today’s column.  Let’s summarize.

  • Jose Guillen will probably decline his $9MM option for ’08, no surprise there.  An "inside source" of Hickey’s doesn’t expect him back with Seattle.  That puts Ichiro in center and Adam Jones in right, which hopefully makes up for the unpleasantness of Raul Ibanez in left.
  • Hickey sees the Mariners having about $15MM to spend this winter.  If $10MM of that went to Guillen the Ms would be severely limited in pitching acquisitions.  Instead they should and probably will just spend all of it to get at least two hurlers.
  • As you know, Hiroki Kuroda is on the radar.  I can’t figure out what kind of contract to expect for Kuroda.  I’m guessing two or three years at at least $5MM per.  I can’t think of a good comparable, as Matsuzaka and Igawa were not free agents.
  • U.S.S. Mariner believes Bartolo Colon is the "hidden gem of free agent pitchers," and officially endorses signing him.  They suggest he could net a one-year, $9MM deal or maybe two years, $16MM.  That sounds fair and I agree that Bart looks like a possible bargain.  Scour the free agent list – who’s your #1 bargain among starters?  Viva El Birdos likes Jon Lieber.  I’ll cast a vote for Brett Tomko.   

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