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B.J. Upton

Twins Willing To Trade Garza

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Terry Ryan hung on to his fine corral of young pitchers, and it’s hard to find fault with that.  However, new GM Bill Smith is open to dealing one of them for a high impact young hitter.

Specifically, Joe Christensen says the Twins are willing to move 24 year-old Matt Garza, who posted a 3.69 ERA this year.  The price would be huge – the names the Twins have in mind are Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, and Carlos Gomez.  Upton, a favorite of theirs, seems like the least available of the three.  Marc Topkin agrees that a Young-Garza rumor has been floating around.

If the Twins want to make a lesser deal, teams have also been asking about Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker.  But those two aren’t chopped liver, and Rocco Baldelli doesn’t seem like enough.  The Padres want in on the young pitchers, but aren’t willing to give up third baseman Chase Headley. 

There’s also word in Christensen’s article that the Twins haven’t heard back from Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva regarding their weak offers.  A more legitimate effort will be made to re-sign Johan Santana.

Florida Teams Talking Trade?

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Here’s a rumor I missed from Jayson Stark’s column on Friday.  Stark notes:

"Despite talk of the Marlins and Devil Rays reviving their long-rumored deal involving Rocco Baldelli, Florida actually appears to be more focused on the younger (and cheaper) B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes as center field possibilities."

That makes sense, but what would Florida give up at this point?  Scott Olsen has to be off-limits.  Josh Johnson is hurting.  Anibal Sanchez’s shoulder inflammation has died down, but he’s still a risk.  Ricky Nolasco might be reasonable, though it would chip away at the team’s strength.  Nolasco for Dukes seems fair.  Nolasco has maybe a 20% chance at becoming a star, while Dukes hovers around 40-50% (based on BP’s Stars and Scrubs charts).  Dukes’s off the field stuff would even out the trade.

Meanwhile, Peter Gammons wrote on February 28th:

"[The Marlins] are not trading any of their good young pitchers to fill center field. They know every good team has flaws, and it’s a lot more difficult to get by with a pitching hole than with a center fielder like Eric Reed who, at worst, runs down balls."

John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus mentions another lower-cost possibility for Florida – Cory Sullivan of Colorado.

D-Rays Willing To Trade Upton, Young?

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According to Mike Berardino of the Sporting News, the Rays have been willing to discuss trades for both Delmon Young and B.J. Upton this winter.  (Berardino also writes for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel).  Apparently Upton’s attitude and shaky defense scare rival teams more than Young’s attitude alone.

It’s tough to envision Young going anywhere.  Despite the bat-throwing, the 21 year-old has star written all over him.  He’s got some interesting comparables, according to Baseball Prospectus.  The most similar player is the very solid former Astros and Reds CF Cesar Cedeno.  His list also includes Rocco Baldelli, Orlando Cepeda, Elijah Dukes, Ruben Sierra, Milton Bradley, Sammy Sosa, Hank Aaron, and Jeff Francoeur.  I didn’t know PECOTA used attitude as a variable (Dukes, Bradley).

PECOTA is less enthused with Upton, likening him to Carlos Febles.  However, his list is quite impressive overall, with Alan Trammell, Willie Randolph, Pete Rose, Derek Jeter, and Tim Raines.  At 22, Upton still has plenty of time to find a position and blossom into a star.

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