Carlos Zambrano

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs have inked Carlos Zambrano to a five-year, $91.5MM contract extension.  The deal also has a $19.25MM player option for a sixth year, so you might as well call it 6/111. 

By waiting, the Cubs cost themselves at least $11.5MM.  It’s unclear as to whether the original 5/80 deal Zambrano almost signed had a player option.  The new contract carries Zambrano through his age 31 season.

This is a home team discount, but $18.3MM annually guaranteed is still pretty hefty.  The discount is that the Cubs are on the hook for five or six years instead of seven or eight.  And sure, Z probably could’ve gotten $20MM on the open market.  The deal would look a lot better for the Cubs if the 2013 option was the club’s.  As a player option, Zambrano will basically only exercise it if he’s in bad shape.

I’ve been back and forth on my opinion of a huge Zambrano extension, kind of like the pitcher’s up and down season.  Part of me says that the Cubs got a slight discount, Zambrano’s been an injury-free horse, and he’ll still be pretty young throughout the deal.  The other side of me says that his best years are behind him, he’s got a ton of mileage on his arm, and almost no free agent pitcher deal of this magnitude could possibly work out.  I think you could make a legitimate case for either side – sorry for the cop out.   

The free agent pitcher market is significantly worse for Zambrano’s absence.  The best option now appears to be Curt Schilling on a short-term deal, if you can get him.

Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano says he’s ready to sign; the Cubs just need to put a reasonable contract offer in front of him.  He’d sacrifice the chance to hit the open market after the season.  It appears that five years and $90MM would get the job done.  Zambrano would be likely to exceed Barry Zito’s 7/126 on the open market, so this is a discount.  He’d still be the highest-paid Cub. 

Back in April, it was five years, $80MM.  The Cubs have cost themselves $10MM by waiting, and that amount will continue to increase if Zambrano finishes strong and/or actually gets to free agency.

Zambrano has bounced back from a lousy start, and now his numbers are in line with career marks.  I have to admit that in May I suggested that even 5/80 was a bad idea for the Cubs.  Has Zambrano’s performance since then changed my mind?  It certainly makes the decision tougher.  I don’t have a good answer here; it depends on what the Cubs would do with the money if they let Z walk.      

Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune has some quotes up today from Carlos Zambrano, and they strongly indicate he’ll sign a contract extension to stay with the Cubs once the season ends.  Specifically, he said there’s a "90% chance" he re-signs.  Negotiations may not have re-opened, but Z is certainly positive about the situation.  The Cubs are likely to pay extra for waiting.

Signing Zambrano might put the Cubs in a position to enter 2008 with the exact same rotation they have now – Zambrano, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, and Sean Marshall.  That group will almost certainly regress from where it is now, but it still looks like a better than average staff to me.

Time to put on my fan cap and speculate about some moves I’d like to see for 2008 (if you hate this sort of thing, just stop reading.  No complaints about too much Cubs stuff.) 

• For the catching situation, I’d just turn it over to Geovany Soto and Henry Blanco.  They should be acceptable.
• I’d like to see a third of the Iowa Cubs promoted for ’08.  Bring up the DP combination of Eric Patterson and Ronny Cedeno, and give Felix Pie a legitimate full-time shot at CF.  These kids are all hitting well at Triple A.  Can you imagine a Cubs lineup with four of eight position players homegrown?
• No more patchwork stuff in right field.  Go out and spend some money on the best right fielder available – Kosuke Fukudome.  It would be fun to see the Cubs garner Japanese attention.  Even at $14-15MM a year, I’d throw it down.  This will compensate if a few of the kids falter.
• I don’t have a great solution for Matt Murton.  Trade him for a respectable reliever if possible, or just use him as the fourth outfielder.  Projecting him as more than that may have been wishcasting anyway.  Similar situation with Mike Fontenot.
• Mark DeRosa and Ryan Theriot are solid guys but they’re on my bench. 
• Nontender Scott Eyre and Jacque Jones, eat the salaries and be done with it.
• Keep Ryan Dempster in the pen but use Carlos Marmol as the closer.  Mix and match with kids and vets, same as this year.  Don’t spend big bucks on free agent relievers.  Dempster could slide into the fifth starter role if the pen is a strength and Marquis bombs.
• Another $3.6MM on Mark Prior on the chance he can outpitch Marquis?  Sure.  Wouldn’t be opposed to bringing in a Freddy Garcia/Jon Lieber/Kenny Rogers if the price is right. You can never have too much pitching.

Ken Rosenthal says of Carlos Zambrano:

"Imagine him wearing another uniform next season. Barring a sudden, unexpected twist, that’s where this is going."

He goes on to run through various Zambrano suitors for the upcoming offseason: the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Astros, Angels, Dodgers, and Tigers.  Rosenthal throws the Rangers, Orioles, Mariners, and Phillies into the mix as well.  Might as well include the Blue Jays on that list as well.

As a lifelong Cubs fan, obviously it would be hard for me to see Zambrano depart. The biggest blunder in Cubs history was letting a 27 year-old Greg Maddux become a Brave. 

Still, I do wonder whether unlike Mad Dog at the time, Z’s best years are behind him.  His climbing walk rate is scary, and you can’t help but question the long-term health prospects for a power pitcher with his mileage.  What can we expect from Zambrano’s age 27-31 seasons?  I really like the Mark Gubicza comparison.  Both are big righties who logged roughly 1,000 Major League innings before their 26th birthdays.  Gubicza was a horse up until his age 28 season, when the wear and tear started to catch up with him.   

If Zambrano straightens himself out and wins 15 games and the Cubs make the playoffs, fans will be clamoring for his retention.  However, the big picture outlook says to let him walk and take the draft picks, or even trade him in July.  The contract will be for a minimum five years, and perhaps as many as seven if he hits the open market.  $17MM annually might be below market value, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.

As one might expect, teams around baseball are calling Jim Hendry about Carlos Zambrano’s availability.  Ken Davidoff writes that he would have a long list of suitors, likely including the Yankees and Mets.

After spending all that money this offseason, the Cubs would probably not make a Zambrano trade that would significantly weaken them this year.  That means they’d need a young MLB-ready starter in return, perhaps akin to when the Astros got Jason Hirsh for Jason Jennings.

Couple of clubs that could pull this off, in my opinion, are the Twins and Angels.  The Twins could part with a Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, or Glen Perkins.  The Angels could surrender Nick Adenhart.  The Tribe could give up Adam Miller.  Those guys might still have some growing pains to endure in the AL, but a move to the NL Central could make them instant contributors.  That would save some face for the Cubs.  I could also see the Mets parting with Mike Pelfrey, though he hasn’t appeared quite ready for The Show.  If Jason Schmidt flops, maybe the Dodgers would deal Chad Billingsley for a new ace.

I know, I know  – your team’s best pitching prospect isn’t going anywhere for a rental.  It’s not very common these days.  Barry Zito played out the string with Oakland, and I could see the other Z doing the same with Chicago.  But I do believe the Cubs would look for a near MLB-ready starter in return in any deal this summer.  I don’t see much of a match for the Yanks.